Orcin's Story

[Orcin]

March 3, 2008 (cbatraderumors.com)

Subject: Louisville Signs Reliever Woods

The Colonels added bullpen depth today by inking reliever Jeffrey Woods to a 1-year contract worth $950,000. The 29-year-old Woods previously pitched for the Nashville Tigers, where he was 23-24 with a 3.50 ERA in 349 career appearances since breaking into the majors in 2001. The right-hander became a free agent after the 2007 season.

Woods is expected to replace Phil Davies, who was recently traded to Pittsburgh, in the Louisville bullpen.


CBA Transactions Log:

03/06/2008: Nashville signed reliever Bobby Moore to a 3-year contract worth $12 million. (I had offered Moore 2 years, $6M but I was unwilling to go higher.)

03/08/2008: Houston signed veteran SP Michael Irwin to a 1-year contract at $1.54 million. Irwin was 10-15 with a 4.92 ERA for Indianapolis last season. The Stars continue to stockpile starting pitchers.

(I offered Irwin $1.5M but he wanted more dollars from us. He has no options remaining and might not accept a demotion to AAA, so I didn’t want to risk a bigger offer.)

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Westheim

Anyway, where does that German wunderkind come from after all? Never saw a boy named Wallace around here.

Wallace Trauttmann is from Russelsheim.

I am told that Trauttmann's birth name was Wallis, and he changed the spelling when he came to America. His mother is from Wales, and the name Wallis means "a Welshman".

[Westheim]

Russelsheim is so not my area. I wonder where the name gets all those names from more "exotic" places from. Like Germany and the Netherlands, I saw some very strange guys from there (and other places) already.

Anyway, go Welsh-German kid!!

[Orcin]

March 8, 2008 (cbatraderumors.com)

Subject: Spring Training Preview – Louisville Colonels (2007: 97-65, 1st)

The two-time defending champion Colonels return most of their core players from last year. They made several house-cleaning moves during the off-season that seem to have weakened their depth. However, the Colonels have gotten younger and the talent that came in looks to be premium quality. We think they have enough to three-peat.

Key Acquisitions: SP Wallace Trauttmann, SS Alexander Mooney, MR Jeffrey Woods
Important Losses: CL George King, SP Juan Hernandez, MR Phil Davies, MR Jesus Trejo, SS Russell Bennett, RF Jeffrey Jackson

Rotation: Lefty Robert Westaway (15-6, 3.32) is still the ace of a deep rotation. Antonio Luna (13-11, 3.83) and Ray Alexander (14-11, 3.78) had good years and are capable of 18-20 wins each. The Colonels expect big things from sophomores Edgardo Ordonez (8-5, 2.58) and Wallace Trauttmann (9-7, 4.40). Aaron Wilkerson (12-8, 3.67) provides insurance for the kids and will help the bullpen if not needed for the rotation.

Bullpen: All-star closer George King is gone, so veteran Edgardo Garza will apparently assume the closer role. Bruce “Fat Cat” Brooks and Nathaniel Jones will again be the setup tandem. The rest of the pen must be revamped because the middle-inning men, Davies and Trejo, were traded. Ricardo Quinones and Jeffrey Woods will compete with two rookies, Jorge Merced and lefty Francisco Rodriguez, for three spots.

Catcher: All-Star Duncan Bland (.280/.358/.536, 32 HR, 99 RBI) is the best catcher in the CBA. Rich Stanley is a proven veteran backup. Bill Landreth will provide depth and challenge Stanley for the backup spot.

Infield: The double-play combo of 2B Tom John and Gold Glove SS Cristo Rodriguez will be challenged by newcomer Alexander Mooney, who hit .324 for Houston last year. Veteran Chris Brown (.277/.353/.489, 28 HR, 98 RBI) had a solid season but faces competition at first base from AAA Player of the Year Mike Guy. 3B Pierre-Louis Simon won a Gold Glove last year but slumped to .237 at the plate and is showing his age.

Outfield: LF Dennis Morgan declined at the plate (.249/.322/.486, 37 HR, 109 RBI) but he carried the Colonels in the playoffs. Pedro Dominguez battled the sophomore jinx (.267/.339/.441, 24 HR, 90 RBI) but he was the Gold Glove winner in center fielder and stole 41 bases. RF Eduardo Sanchez (.320/.405/.437, 48 SB), acquired in a mid-season trade, finally gives the Colonels a premier leadoff hitter. RF Ron Hartman returns after missing the entire 2007 season with a broken elbow and will strengthen the bench.

Top-Rated Players: LF Dennis Morgan, RF Eduardo Sanchez
Top-Rated Pitchers: SP Robert Westaway
Projected 2008 Finish: 98-64, 1st in the Midwest Division

[Orcin]

2008 Spring Training Recap

• The spring training record was 17-5. The injury total was none. Really… zero!
• The pitching roster cuts were easy compared to the position player battles.
• Wallace Trauttmann had an outstanding spring (16 IP, 1.13 ERA) and will open the season as the fifth starter. Aaron Wilkerson will stay on the team as the long reliever.
• Rookies Jorge Merced and Francisco Rodriguez both made the team on merit, making the last few bullpen assignments more complicated.
• The final spot in the bullpen came down to Ricardo Quinones vs. Jeffrey Woods.
• Quinones would qualify for arbitration in 2009 with a full ML year. He has 3 options left, so he will start the season as the closer at AAA Lexington to delay that clock.
• Left-handed reliever Steve Scott was claimed off waivers from San Diego. Scott is slated to use his final option at Lexington where he will be the only LH reliever.
• Chris Brown hit .309 with 4 HR and 13 RBI. Mike Guy hit .346 but with no power. Guy made the team and will share the first base job with Brown.
• Tom John and Cristo Rodriguez each hit .373 to keep Alexander Mooney from grabbing their jobs.
• Mooney hit .286 and Pierre-Louis Simon hit .229. Mooney will get some early playing time at third base.
• Eduardo Sanchez hit .391 to lead the team and hold off a stiff challenge from Ron Hartman, who hit .356. Hartman will be the fourth outfielder and see frequent action.
• The last spot on the bench was a very hard decision. Outfielders Arlen Craig and Gerald Blair did not make the cut. Infielder Larry Marshall lost out to Mooney.
• Juan Gonzalez had a great spring, hitting .324. He plays all three outfield spots well and he is a RH bench bat. He has good speed and is valuable as a pinch-runner.
• Lucio Martinez hit .209 and, sadly, his time may have finally come. Gonzalez makes the team and Martinez will be asked to go to AAA where we need infielders.
• I will wait until the final cut-down day and try to sneak Martinez through waivers. It would be ironic if he left the franchise the same way that he came (via waiver claim).

Around the league:
• Boston signed SS Russell Bennett to a 1-year contract for $1.5 million.
• Big blow for Orlando: all-star RF Brock Richardson, signed over the winter, tore a back muscle in spring training and will miss 4-5 months.
• Atlanta’s newly-acquired SP Manuel Yan will miss two months with a torn meniscus.
• Atlanta all-star LF Jesus Ortega suffered a concussion and has been ruled by the doctors to be out for the season due to post-concussion syndrome.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

• The spring training record was 17-5. The injury total was none. Really… zero!

(with pen and paper) Mr. Orcin, for our readers: how do you plan to improve on that?

[phairphunk]

Thank god you finally dropped Martinez. I've been saying he was a bum for years (mostly to myself)!

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by phairphunk

Thank god you finally dropped Martinez. I've been saying he was a bum for years (mostly to myself)!

I expect some backlash from certain Martinez fans. *ducks*

I hope he clears waivers and accepts his assignment to the minors. He may be needed at some point this year. I put him somewhere between star and bum. There's lots of room in that range.

[Orcin]

Pre-Season Adjustments and Planning

There are 101 players on waivers, 15 pitchers and 86 position players. Houston SP Max Miller (14-11, 3.77 in 2007) and 22-year-old San Diego C Justin Stone are the best available. They are both tempting but I have no room on the active roster for either one.

The AAA roster needed some depth at some positions and other positions were crowded. I took advantage of extra secondary roster spots to make a couple of trades for players being squeezed out of a spot on other teams.

Minor league RF Jose Cruz was traded to Boston for SP Estaban Valle, a 27-year-old right-hander at minimum salary with two options left. Valle was 5-5 with a 4.40 ERA last year. He was a Rule 5 pick and had to stay on Boston’s roster all year, but he really wasn’t ready. He is needed for our AAA rotation.

Reliever Reginald Davis was traded to Baltimore for minor league C John Heyrick. Villa rates the switch-hitting Heyrick as a 3-star prospect with good defensive skills. He could be useful as a third catcher next year if Rich Stanley’s contract is not renewed. Heyrick is 25, has all 3 options left, and only 1 year of ML service time.

[Orcin]

2008 Final Pre-Season Predictions from BNN

The pundits at BNN predict that the Charlotte Knights will finish 98-64 and face the Houston Stars (92-70) in the 2008 World Series.

Louisville is predicted to tie for the Midwest Division with St. Louis at 89-73 and at least be in the playoffs as a wild card. Yeah, we’ll see about that. Last year’s challenger for the division, Indianapolis, is predicted to finish last at 73-89. I don’t believe that either.

San Diego is favored to win the Federal Pacific Division. Pittsburgh and Providence are predicted to win the other Patriot League divisions, with Washington as the wild card team.

No Louisville players are listed among the Top Ten Federal League hitters. Robert Westaway and our rookie star Wallace Trauttmann are listed among the Top Ten pitchers in our league.

Juan Hernandez is listed as a top pitcher in the Patriot League. The outcome of that trade (Trauttmann v. Hernandez) will be interesting to follow.

[Orcin]

OMG, I hope you are sitting down…


April 7, 2008

Subject: Personal Message from the Owner – Season Expectation

Otto,

I have now decided on the goal for the coming season. After evaluating several factors, I have come to the conclusion that you should be able to achieve a winning season, playing better than .500 ball.

Good Luck!
Henry Cooper

**********

Dear Otto,

Henry turned 80 years old over the winter, and his revised expectations may reflect a certain sense of urgency. His modest expectations notwithstanding, we share more ambitious goals.

1. Win the division championship.
2. Be competitive in the playoffs.
3. Record a financial profit.
4. Keep the pipeline full of young talent.

I am impressed with your recent work on the fourth goal. Wallace Trauttmann, Tracy Sweeney, Mike Guy, and Alexander Mooney are all tremendous young players that could replace aging stars in a year or two.

I am glad that you did not let sentiment prevent you from waiving Lucio Martinez to make room for Mooney. Sentiment is for losers. The franchise would never have achieved this level of success had we avoided the hard decisions along the way.

Good luck!
Gordon Cooper
President and CEO

[Orcin]

April 7, 2008 (BNN)

Subject: Baseball America Top 100 Prospects

The season is about to start, so it's time to publish the annual Top 100 Prospects list. This year 21-year-old center fielder Rafael Valdéz of the Louisville Colonels is the #1 prospect overall.

Here is the top 10 (with last year’s rank in parenthesis):
1) CF Rafael Valdéz, 21, Louisville Colonels (3)
2) SP Sonny Allen, 19, Houston Stars (1)
3) SP Albert White, 18, Los Angeles Vipers (NR)
4) SP Robinson Luna, 21, Detroit Titans (6)
5) 2B Aaron Carter, 18, Cincinnati Bobcats (NR)
6) SP Carlos Torres, 21, San Francisco Seals (4)
7) SS Arthur Norton, 19, Cleveland Rockers (NR)
8) SS Sergio Rivera, 20, Orlando Sharks (2)
9) SP Alejandro Rosário, 18, Salt Lake City Bees (NR)
10) 2B Roberto García, 22, Charleston Generals (9)

Sacramento, Cleveland, and Orlando have the top-rated farm systems.


**********

Our farm system slipped to #6 with only two Top 100 prospects. Valdez will be a superstar someday soon. LF Tracy Sweeney is rated #35.

Some of our best young players fell out of these ratings because they are now in the majors. Lefty SP Edgardo Ordonez is no longer rated because he has a year of major league experience. SP Wallace Trauttmann is also too experienced to be on this list.

The second tier of prospects includes 23-year-old reliever Jorge Merced (now in the majors) at #107, 21-year-old Evansville LF Tom Frye (#175), 23-year-old Dayton C Kevin Thomas (#189) and 22-year-old Lexington SP Will Spencer (#193). Perhaps our player development will move some other prospects along, but the key hope lies in our new scout’s ability to identify quality draft choices and international players.

[Orcin]

April 7, 2008

Opening day lineup vs. Indianapolis

RF Eduardo Sanchez
3B Pierre-Louis Simon
CF Pedro Dominguez
LF Dennis Morgan
1B Chris Brown
C Duncan Bland
2B Tom John
SS Cristo Rodriguez
P Robert Westaway

This lineup should score a lot more runs this year if key players like Simon, Dominguez, and Morgan rebound with better seasons. Simon should be productive at the top of the order because of his extra-base pop (he has 63 career triples) and base-stealing ability.

The opening day payroll is #19 in the CBA at $93M (including personnel). The $148M budget ranks #13 (tie with Seattle).

[mpejkrm]

When did you draft Valdez? I'm still amazed a dominant team like yours can keep the farm system stacked... good luck this season!!!

[mpejkrm]

Woops double post not sure how that happened

[Sal, The Barber]

Sal would like to know what the plan is for Hartman. He is the 4th OF, no? But he is too good to be the number 4, n'est pas? Is he the piece you ship at the trade deadline for whoever is injured at the moment? Or do you foresee a revolving outfield? Sal would like to know if you can guarantee his client at-bats.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by mpejkrm

When did you draft Valdez? I'm still amazed a dominant team like yours can keep the farm system stacked... good luck this season!!!

Thanks!

In December 2005, I traded SP Pedro Castro and starting CF Manuel Jaramillo to Providence for Valdez. He was the #49 prospect in the CBA at the time.

Jaramillo hit .257 with 13 HR and 66 RBI for Providence in 2006. He declined rapidly after that and is currently a free agent.

Castro has developed into a really nice starting pitcher. He was 16-13 with a 4.38 ERA in 2006, and followed that with 15-11, 3.59 ERA last year. He pitched over 200 innings both seasons.

The trade was motivated by my desire to get rid of Jaramillo for a good prospect. I was not sold on Castro either. He had missed much of 2005 with bone spurs in his elbow, and I was concerned over Castro's health in the future.

Valdez looked good, but I did not expect him to be the #1 prospect two years later.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Sal, The Barber

Sal would like to know what the plan is for Hartman. He is the 4th OF, no? But he is too good to be the number 4, n'est pas? Is he the piece you ship at the trade deadline for whoever is injured at the moment? Or do you foresee a revolving outfield? Sal would like to know if you can guarantee his client at-bats.

As of right now, he is the fourth outfielder. I don't foresee a revolving outfield, but I do see Hartman getting decent playing time as a sub. I like to substitute frequently to keep my bench sharp, especially early in the season. Yes, he is too good to be a fourth outfielder, plus he expects to be in the starting lineup. Maybe he will be if I have an injury, but I don't want to think about that.

If I have a pressing need at mid-season and he is still the fourth outfielder, then he could be traded. He is especially vulnerable if Sweeney and Valdez develop rapidly. I am not giving Hartman away for nothing though. Good leadoff hitters are hard to find.

Since we are talking about smart trades, let's don't forget the dumb ones. I traded RF Juan Moran to Cleveland for Hartman. Moran has developed into a great player. He hit .303 with 46 HR and 116 RBI for the Rockers in 2007, making the All-Star team for the first time. I drafted Moran in 2004 (2nd round) and badly under-estimated his development.

Moran is worth a lot more than Hartman right now.

[Orcin]

April 14, 2008

Subject: Week 1 Notes

Record: 3-3, .500, 2.5 GB
Position: 3rd place (behind Chicago and Milwaukee)
Runs Scored: 24 – 10th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 19 – 2nd in Federal
Defense: .722 – 4th in Federal
Power Ranking: 91.0, (13th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Ecstatic; Fan Interest: 100/100

• Last week (3-3): 1-2 vs. Indianapolis, 2-1 vs. Phoenix
• 04/07: IND 3, LOU 2 – Morgan and Brown struck out with the tying and winning runs in scoring position in the bottom of the ninth
• The opener was a good pitching duel between Robbie Scott and Westaway. The winning run was unearned, scoring on a throwing error by Tom John.
• 04/08: LOU 4, IND 3 – Bland 2-4, HR, 2 RBI
• The Atlanta Flames claimed SP Max Miller off waivers from Houston.
• The Los Angeles Vipers claimed C Justin Stone off waivers from San Diego.
• No other players were claimed off the cut-down day flood of waivers.
• Lucio Martinez accepted his assignment to AAA. He will play first base and bat fifth for the Legends. He can also help at second base and (of course) third.
• AAA catcher Herman Dodson was traded to San Francisco for LH SP Chip Gilliam. You may remember that Gilliam pitched a great game against us late last season.
• 04/09: IND 8, LOU 7 – McDonald (IND) 5-5, 3 RBI
• 04/10: LOU 6, PHX 0 – shutout by Ordonez; Morgan 3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
• Ordonez line: 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K, 106 pitches, 70 strikes, game score 86
• Ordonez said after the game that he didn’t feel like he had his best stuff. Wow.
• 04/11: PHX 2, LOU 1 – Trauttmann 8 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 10 K
• 04/12: LOU 4, PHX 3 (15) – Mooney 3-7, HR, 2 RBI; Guy walk-off HR for GWRBI
• Garza blew the save for Westaway in the ninth (BS#1) – bullpen as a whole is still struggling to find its rhythm
• Charlotte SP Todd Fletcher threw a 2-hit shutout vs. Providence with 2 walks and 9 strikeouts.
• Lexington CF and #1 prospect Rafael Valdez has a torn meniscus (knee) and will miss 3-4 weeks.
• This week: 3 at Denver, 3 at Cleveland

[Sal, The Barber]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Since we are talking about smart trades, let's don't forget the dumb ones. I traded RF Juan Moran to Cleveland for Hartman. Moran has developed into a great player. He hit .303 with 46 HR and 116 RBI for the Rockers in 2007, making the All-Star team for the first time. I drafted Moran in 2004 (2nd round) and badly under-estimated his development.

Moran is worth a lot more than Hartman right now.

Let Sal who likes to look on the bright side of life speak to this. But Hartman is, as you say, a valuable lead-off man. He is not the home run hitter. His value to a ballclub is illustrated in the other ways. Ed Sanchez can do the things Hartman can do and hit the home run, is this correct? Juan Moran cannot do some of the things Hartman can do, right? Or does Sal have his players in the blender?

Let Sal be more specific.

1. Which one of the three is the best defensive outfielder? Sal thinks Moran is probably #3.

2. Which one of the three is the best HR hitter? Moran, Sanchez, then Hartman--this is Sal's guess.

3. Which one can run the fastest? Sal bets Hartman but maybe Sanchez. Moran is #3, but is Moran faster than Sal?

4. Which one has the strong arm in the outfield?

5. Which one goes through 6 pitches every at-bat?

6. Which one hits the doubles and triples?

By now, you understand what Sal is saying. Sal thinks that maybe you pick the one that is the best fit for the current team--depends on what you need or want. Although it is true you can no longer have Moran.