Orcin's Story

[Orcin]

First Day of the Off-Season

• Address open personnel positions
• Make decision to exercise or decline team options
• Offer arbitration (or not) to potential free agents
• Submit arbitration offers to eligible players or decide not to tender them
• Make offers to potential free agents (or not), including minor league free agents


Task: Fill open personnel positions

I didn’t have any open personnel positions until today. This morning, I fired scout Jorge Enriquez, paying off his $300,000 contract. Why? Carlos Villa, former scouting director for the Atlanta Flames (1997-2003) and San Francisco Seals (2004-2007) is available after being dismissed by the Seals yesterday.

Villa has a neutral focus just like Enriquez. But he does two things better than Enriquez, and both are highly desirable for us. Villa is rated excellent at scouting the majors, while Enriquez is only “decent”. I am entering a period where I need a dependable opinion on my older players and early warning of declines in ability. I also need accurate opinions on any potential trade targets at the major league level. Finally, I want reliable opinions on position battles like Brown vs. Guy, Sanchez vs. Hartman, Wilkerson vs. Hernandez, etc. before I make any serious mistakes.

The second area is even more critical. Since Fernando Candelaria was fired, we have surfaced exactly ONE international discovery, and he was not worth signing. That is unacceptable for a team that consistently drafts last. We spend a lot of money in Latin America, and in return we expect to sign a pipeline of prospects like Edgardo Garza, Cristo Rodriguez, and Pedro Dominguez (all of whom were international discoveries by Candelaria). Villa, who was born in Venezuela, is rated excellent at international scouting, while Enriquez is only “average”. This alone makes the move a good one.

Villa is rated average at minor league and amateur scouting, same as Enriquez. It would be nice to have better ratings here too, but he is the best scout available. Either we get a partial upgrade or none at all. I consider the international problem too great to ignore.

Villa was offered a three-year contract at $250,000 per year, meeting his demands. I expect him to accept quickly. We have work to do.

[gehrig38]

I could blow you away with stories of players who 'fell out of favor' by being viewed with an organizational lens.
One the just jumps in my head was Lyle Overbay. Bob Brenly absolutely, unequivocally, did not like him, why I don't know.
Check out his 2003 numbers. Add to that he came to the big leagues as a hitter that kept copious notes after games, when I spoke with him about it "I want to manage someday, and there's something I learn every night, I don't want to forget".
We sent him back to AAA and I think he was hitting like .279. He was an outstanding 1B too.
You cannot get caught with what I always thought was a unrealistic internal perspective.

[Sal, The Barber]

Originally Posted by Orcin

2007 Continental Baseball Association World Series
Charlotte Knights (93-69) vs. Louisville Colonels (97-65)

We’ll let the Louisville radio broadcaster describe the action as it was heard on the old Arvin tube model in the apartment above Sal’s shop…

*crackle*
King is ready to go now.
Bland settles in behind the plate… Thompson steps into the box on the left side…
Men on the corners, two down… crowd is standing… man, it’s loud in here…
The windup… and here’s the first pitch from King… swing…
POPPED IT UP… foul territory… Brown is under it… waiting…

LOUISVILLE WINS THE WORLD SERIES!
LOUISVILLE WINS THE WORLD SERIES!
LOUISVILLE WINS THE WORLD SERIES!

This wasn't just the radio. Sal was yelling along with it. Then, the last Sal remembers is waking up in his barber chair. Yes, just a few minutes ago. Sal has to thank the boys for returning him to his shop safely. But Sal can't help but assume that he has missed a lot. Sal is getting too old to celebrate like a young man. Besides, Mr. Orcin is making winning old hat.

[Orcin]

Task: Make decision to exercise or decline team options

The team option on C Rich Stanley at $1.1M was exercised. He is a good defensive catcher and hits well enough. Nobody could adequately replace Bland if he goes down, so there is no point in spending more money here.


Task: Offer arbitration (or not) to potential free agents

The following potential free agents are not compensation eligible, and will not be offered arbitration:

CL George King, age 30, throws R, 58.1 IP, 0-7, 47 SV, 3.70 ERA
SS Russell Bennett, age 31, bats S, 112 AB, .268/.385/.411, 1 HR, 2 SB
RF Jeffrey Jackson, age 29, bats L, 122 AB, .270/.350/.344, 0 HR, 8 SB


Task: Submit arbitration offers to eligible players or decide not to tender them

There are three players eligible for arbitration, but only two will receive offers.

MR Phil Davies (16.2 IP, 1-0, 2.70 ERA, age 24) is a super-2 qualifier. He missed two months of the season with a forearm strain and was pushed out of the bullpen by Juan Hernandez. Davies is now slated to assume Garza’s long relief role, as Garza moves to closer. His arbitration estimate is $1.4 million and his contract demand is crazy. I plan to offer the estimate and take my chances because I want another year of stats on which to base a long-term contract decision.

LF Juan Gonzalez (167 AB, .257/.302/.365, 3 HR, 12 SB, age 25) is a good value at his $700K estimate. He has minor league options and can play the outfield well. He is definitely worth a spot on the 40-man roster.

RF Pablo Guzman (257 AB, .249/.310/.377, 6 HR, 10 SB, age 27) did not justify a roster spot with his mediocre performance and was waived in late August. He is out of options and will be non-tendered.

[Orcin]

Task: Make offers to potential free agents (or not), including minor leaguers

There are 10 possible free agents. King, Bennett, and Jackson will not be offered a contract. Minor league contracts will be offered to Dayton CL John Nicholson (who will be promoted to Lexington) and Dayton MR John Douglas (because he is left-handed). The rest will be allowed to test the market unless my new scout comes in raving about one of them.

Task: Offer long-term contracts to young stars, avoiding future arbitration

This is a new item that may not appear every year. I have a unique set of circumstances that offers this opportunity. My 2008 budget has some room but my 2009 budget is very tight. I can solve a problem by offering extensions to players that have large arbitration estimates for 2009, but are not eligible for 2008 arbitration. The negotiating tactic is to offer them 400% more money in 2008 ($2M vs. the minimum $450K salary) in return for taking 200% less in 2009-11 (avg. $3M vs. $5-6M). The players that fit this strategy are Pedro Dominguez, Eduardo Sanchez, and (for a lesser amount) Cristo Rodriguez. I hope to reduce the potential payroll gap in 2009 by $10M with this strategy, and then I can probably increase my spending to keep the rest of the core together.


Louisville Colonels: projected secondary roster for 2008 (36/40 players)

Starting Pitchers (8): Westaway^, Luna^, Alexander^, Ordonez, Wilkerson, Hernandez, Gonzales, Spencer

Relief Pitchers (10): Garza, Brooks, Jones, Davies, Trejo, Quinones, Merced, Bryant, Guthrie, Rodriguez

Catchers (3): Bland^, Stanley^, Landreth

Infielders (8): Brown^, Guy, John, Rodriguez, Simon^, Martinez+^, Marshall, Mata

Outfielders (7): Morgan^, Dominguez, Sanchez, Hartman, Gonzalez, Craig, Blair

+ = out of minor league options
^ = has right to refuse minor league assignment

Players listed in italics have not yet been added to the secondary roster.

[Orcin]

2007 CBA Post-Season Awards

Outstanding Player:
Patriot – RF Patrick Timm, Charleston Generals (.308/.382/.716, 71 HR, 159 RBI)
Federal – 1B Will Walker, San Diego Stallions (.325/.407/.694, 54 HR, 134 RBI)
* Timm wins for the third consecutive year

Outstanding Pitcher:
Patriot – Jesus De La Cruz, New York Monarchs (17-8, 2.28 ERA, 228 K’s)
Federal – David Harrison, Houston Stars (23-5, 1.84 ERA, 154 K’s)

Rookie of the Year:
Patriot – 1B John Wright, Boston Bombers (.308/.386/.596, 24 HR, 55 RBI)
Federal – 1B Will Walker, San Diego Stallions (.325/.407/.694, 54 HR, 134 RBI)

Manager of the Year:
Patriot – Daniel McArthur, Charlotte Knights (93-69)
Federal – Chad Byrne, Louisville Colonels (97-65)
* Byrne’s seventh award and fourth in a row

Federal League Gold Glove:
Louisville 3B Pierre-Louis Simon (.982, ZR +19.5, EFF 1.074)
Louisville SS Cristo Rodriguez (.983, ZR +11.3, EFF 1.043)
Louisville LF Dennis Morgan (.996, ZR +4.9, EFF 1.028)
Louisville CF Pedro Dominguez (.991, ZR +21.3, EFF 1.094)

We were FINALLY recognized for good fielding. It has been a long time coming.


CBA 2008 Hall of Fame Class

SP Mike Moulds (1984-2002)
Mike Moulds was signed by the Charleston Generals in 1981 as an international discovery out of Canada. The talented young left-hander was named the #1 prospect in the CBA for 1982 and 1983. He broke into the majors in 1984 and was the mainstay of the Generals staff through 1995, winning 20 games twice. He moved on to Cleveland in 1996 as a free agent, and went 19-8 in his first season there.

Moulds finished his career with a record of 253-168, fifth on the all-time list for wins, and a 3.00 ERA. His 3,086 strikeouts rank #11 on the career list. Mike Moulds was selected for the All-Star team seven times, but he never won an Outstanding Pitcher award.

[Orcin]

November 8, 2007

Scout Carlos Villa accepted our offer and immediately went to work. He had depressing news about our 2007 draft class. It was not nearly as good as Enriquez had reported.

The only shocker from Villa’s major league report was that Simon is on the decline in contact. I guess it should have been obvious from his .237 average.

The successor for Simon just jumped to the top of my off-season shopping list, which is:
1. Utility infielder / eventual starting third baseman
2. Right-handed starting pitcher that could become an ace
3. Right-handed hitting outfielder to groom as Morgan’s replacement

Now that Villa is on the job, I can get to work evaluating possible trades and (soon) free agents.

[Orcin]

November 15, 2007 (cbatraderumors.com)

Subject: Louisville Contract Extensions

The Louisville Colonels announced the completion of contract extensions for three of their young stars today. These new four-year contracts, effective next season, will buy out the arbitration years of these players in return for a larger 2008 salary.

The Colonels announced that RF Eduardo Sanchez agreed to a four-year contract worth $11.5 million, CF Pedro Dominguez signed for four years at $11.2 million, and SS Cristo Rodriguez received a four-year contract worth $5.5 million. Our arbitration analyst calculated the potential 2009 savings for the club at nearly $10 million, but the team will spend an extra $3.5 million in 2008 to realize the future benefit.

Fan reaction to the announcement in Louisville was amazing. The fans are more excited about locking up three key starters than how much money the team saved.

[Westheim]

To be honest, baseball players are vastly overpaid today, so I understand everybody just being happy for them being locked up (for the team of course, not in some mental health facility).

Where does your budget rank league-wide? I'm sure you said it somewhere but I can't find it right now for my life... I'm sure it was below average, too.

Working on a small budget provides these extra challenges ... and headaches.

Lotsa headaches...

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Westheim

Where does your budget rank league-wide?

It's in the middle of the pack (14th of 30 teams) but I also try to stay below the budget to make extra profit for my owner.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Orcin

It's in the middle of the pack (14th of 30 teams) but I also try to stay below the budget to make extra profit for my owner.

Not that Henry ".500 ball" Cooper would notice Sorry.

[isaacgood11]

Thanks for this awesome story, just read it all from page one in 2 weeks. Great stuff keep it coming.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by isaacgood11

Thanks for this awesome story, just read it all from page one in 2 weeks. Great stuff keep it coming.

Wow, a new reader! I thought the length of this thread had scared everyone off by now, but here you are. Sorry for the loss of your free time but thanks for reading!

[Orcin]

November 16, 2007 (BNN)

Subject: Louisville’s Westaway Hurt in Accident

Accidents happen to everyone, even athletes like Robert Westaway of the Colonels. The Louisville starting pitcher got hurt falling off a horse yesterday and now will have to take some time off to recuperate and heal. Westaway will be sidelined for up to two months with a strained hamstring, but he should be ready for spring training.

In his career Westaway has compiled an ERA of 2.85 with 154 victories and 72 defeats and has held opponents to a .250 batting average. He also has struck out 1635 batters in 2046 innings and given up 1930 hits.

[Westheim]

Why do you let that guy get anywhere close to a horse in the first place?

[Orcin]

November 17, 2007 (BNN)

Subject: CBA Arbitration Hearings

As players, arbitrators and team representatives arrive for today's salary arbitration hearings, a sense of anxiety can be felt across Continental Baseball Association. Only the arbitrator, a man who will never hit a home run or pitch a no-hitter, will determine the winners and losers. Management will have a better understanding of their financial picture heading into the offseason when the decisions are announced tomorrow.

Salary Arbitration Decisions in Favor of the Louisville Colonels:
• LF Juan Gonzalez was awarded $700,000. The player demanded $1,062,000.

Salary Arbitration Decisions Against the Louisville Colonels:
• MR Phil Davies was awarded $1,568,000. The team had offered $1,400,000.


CBA Transactions Log:
• 10/28/2007: Cincinnati pulled off a pair of trades to acquire veteran MR Jim Wilson from Philadelphia and C Jeff Lucas from Seattle in return for multiple prospects.
• 11/16/2007: Nashville acquired slugging 1B Josh Haley from Los Angeles for two prospects. The 32-year-old Haley has 419 career HR and a .965 career OPS.

Management Carousel
The following personnel replacements have been announced.

Federal League:
Chicago Cougars: GM Don Watson (former Phoenix GM)
Chicago Cougars: MGR Lyle Harris (former Milwaukee hitting coach)
Dallas Rattlers: GM Jason Fitzpatrick (no prior experience)
Dallas Rattlers: MGR Thomas Smith (promoted from bench coach)
Los Angeles Vipers: GM Bob Barrett (former Atlanta GM)
Milwaukee Eagles: GM Mike Burks (no prior experience)
Phoenix Coyotes: GM Eddie Pearson (former Dallas GM)
San Francisco Seals: MGR Marshall Sloan (just created, legendary ratings, great hire!)
Seattle Falcons: GM Bill Dundee (former Cincinnati GM)
Seattle Falcons: MGR Greg McDonald (former Chicago manager)

Patriot League:
Atlanta Flames: GM Lorenzo Morin (former Los Angeles GM)
Charleston Generals: MGR Roberto Ruiz (former Cincinnati pitching coach)
Charlotte Knights: GM Javier Ortiz (former Washington GM)
Cincinnati Bobcats: GM Glenn Jackson (former Chicago GM) – 2nd stint with Cincy
Nashville Tigers: MGR Michael Lewis (former Charleston bench coach)
Washington Admirals: GM Buck Welch (former Milwaukee GM)

[Orcin]

November 20, 2007 (BNN)

Subject: Free Agents File

As midnight approached last night, would-be free agents across Continental Baseball Association lined up to formally file their papers, officially putting themselves on the open market.

General Managers across the league enter the fray today with different approaches… mortgage the franchise to snap up the stars or simply maintain the status quo?

Headlining the list of names filing for free agency are these players:

• RF Brock Richardson, ex-Dallas, age 30, bats R, 2-time MVP, 4-time AS, career .321 average, career .906 OPS, wants 6 years @ $24M/year, interested: none (yet)
• 2B Tomás Barrón, ex-Salt Lake City, age 30, bats R, 4-time AS, career .321 average, career .855 OPS, wants 7 years @ $22M/year, interested: DAL
• RF Yann Rey, ex-San Diego, age 29, bats L, 1-time MVP, 4-time AS, career .283 average, career .914 OPS, wants 7 years @ $19M/year, interested: none
• SP Mario Sandobel, ex-Atlanta, age 29, throws R, career 59-44 with 3.87 ERA, wants 7 years @ $17M/year, interested: none
• SP Manuel Yan, ex-Philadelphia, age 36, throws R, 1-time AS, career 229-168 with 3.68 ERA, wants 5 years @ $17M/year, interested: BOS, ATL
• CL Eric Alford, ex-Cincinnati, age 29, throws R, 4-time AS, career 231 saves with 2.19 ERA, wants 5 years @ $16M/year, interested: PHX, ATL, PHI, HOU
• CL Lucas Sanders, ex-Washington, age 31, throws R, 7-time AS, career 353 saves with 2.13 ERA, wants 5 years @ $15M/year, interested: BAL, NY
• SP Justin Bell, ex-Detroit, age 26, throws R, 1-time AS, career 58-51 with 3.85 ERA, wants 7 years @ $14.5M/year, interested: CIN, ATL, NY
• CL Rafael Salinas, ex-Philadelphia, age 36, throws R, 9-time AS, career 519 saves with 2.04 ERA, wants 4 years @ $14.5M/year, interested: SF, CHS, SD, BAL
• SP Charles Combs, ex-St. Louis, age 32, throws R, 1-time AS, career 136-121 with 3.84 ERA, wants 6 years @ $13.5M/year, interested: none

Tomás Barrón would be of interest to me if he were not so expensive. Justin Bell would be really interesting if he were not always hurt. In the end, I don’t expect to solve any of my problems in the free agent market.

[Orcin]

November 20, 2007

Subject: Budget Projections – 2008

Eligible players filed for free agency today and arbitration is also out of the way, so let’s have a clean look at salary commitments for the 27 players with major league contracts.



The 2008 salaries, including approximately $5 million for additional minimum salary players and $8 million for personnel, project to be $95 million ($5 million under target). The 2009 figure looks to be $9 million higher, but still within reasonable limits. This is a much better situation that we faced a year ago. It is a little hard to judge the 2010 status, because there are blanks beside some key names like Simon and Bland. We have two years to decide what to do with those players, so there is no reason to even concern ourselves with it now.

I have checked the free agent market but there is no available player that would be an obvious way to spend the excess budget for this year. Actually, very few available position players could make our roster, certainly none under $10 million salary. Pitchers could be another matter, and it might be worth looking again during spring training.

[phairphunk]

It's taken about a week, but I finally got through it all. Now I have to wait for updates?!?!?!


Fabulous job with the report AND with your franchise, Mr. Orcin!

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by phairphunk

It's taken about a week, but I finally got through it all. Now I have to wait for updates?!?!?!


Fabulous job with the report AND with your franchise, Mr. Orcin!

Thank you, and yes I'm afraid you have to wait until tomorrow.

(One week is a new record, I think.)