Skill Change in Relievers?

[Pacoheadley]

To start off, I do know that relievers do get a boost in stuff in the game, depending on the amount of pitches they have and their stamina.

However, this is not the only difference there is between starters and relievers. Reliever not only have a higher strikeout rate, they also have a consistently lower home run rate, and a consistently lower BABIP. I don't quite remember where to find the exact studies on this, but this post has some information http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...ief_1953_2008/

This is kind of a minor change, but the difference in BABIP and Home Run rate between starters and relievers should be slightly reflected in the game.

[bailey]

I've noticed in OOTP that the pitchers with the lowest career ERA are all relievers. This is with neutralized ballpark factors and modern-day default settings.

[Pacoheadley]

Originally Posted by bailey

I've noticed in OOTP that the pitchers with the lowest career ERA are all relievers. This is with neutralized ballpark factors and modern-day default settings.

That would be because of the increase in stuff (strikeouts), but there is no increase in movement ratings, or a change in BABIP, as there is in real life.

[statfreak]

Originally Posted by Pacoheadley

To start off, I do know that relievers do get a boost in stuff in the game, depending on the amount of pitches they have and their stamina.

However, this is not the only difference there is between starters and relievers. Reliever not only have a higher strikeout rate, they also have a consistently lower home run rate, and a consistently lower BABIP. I don't quite remember where to find the exact studies on this, but this post has some information http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...ief_1953_2008/

This is kind of a minor change, but the difference in BABIP and Home Run rate between starters and relievers should be slightly reflected in the game.

Are you basing your assumption on the fact there is no noticeable change in ratings or on actual stats from your leagues?

As bailey noted, relievers have lower ERAs and that can not be explained simply because they have more strikeouts.

[Pacoheadley]

Originally Posted by statfreak

Are you basing your assumption on the fact there is no noticeable change in ratings or on actual stats from your leagues?

As bailey noted, relievers have lower ERAs and that can not be explained simply because they have more strikeouts.

When you change a picture into a MR or a CL, their movement rating does not change at all. There is no change in BABIP whatsoever between starters and relievers in the game either. More strikeouts is how it is explained, but that is not the only difference between pitching as a starter and pitching in relief in real life, therefore it should not be the only difference in the game.

[95Marinerschangedmylife]

Maybe I am not understanding this conversation but wouldn't this have to do with situations such as matchups?

[Ktulu]

Originally Posted by Pacoheadley

When you change a picture into a MR or a CL, their movement rating does not change at all. There is no change in BABIP whatsoever between starters and relievers in the game either. More strikeouts is how it is explained, but that is not the only difference between pitching as a starter and pitching in relief in real life, therefore it should not be the only difference in the game.

Well, as mentioned, you're going to need some actual data to back this up. Just because you don't see a change to ratings doesn't mean there isn't an effect in the game. The boost to stuff IS going to have an effect on HR rate, and there's other stuff going on behind the scenes. There is also no pitcher rating for BABIP, so are you getting this from statistics?

The pitching engine is complicated and involves far more than just the stuff movement and control you see on the player profile. Real life stats also are not simply explained by pitchers being better (ie higher ratings) in relief.

[Pacoheadley]

Originally Posted by Ktulu

Well, as mentioned, you're going to need some actual data to back this up. Just because you don't see a change to ratings doesn't mean there isn't an effect in the game. The boost to stuff IS going to have an effect on HR rate, and there's other stuff going on behind the scenes. There is also no pitcher rating for BABIP, so are you getting this from statistics?

The pitching engine is complicated and involves far more than just the stuff movement and control you see on the player profile. Real life stats also are not simply explained by pitchers being better (ie higher ratings) in relief.

I could maybe do some tests on the HR rate myself, as I guess you do make a good point on the increase in strikeouts would result in slightly less homeruns.

From whatever I have read on fangraphs and sites like that, pitching in relief will make it easier to have a lower BABIP, because you can pitch harder and better while in relief. Tom Tango has also said that relievers have a BABIP 17 points lower then average compared to starters, and that is an amount that can have some significance. I am not sure on how this would work for a pitcher who switches between the bullpen and the rotation, but 17 points is a significant improvement for relievers.

[Cinnamon J. Scudworth]

Originally Posted by Pacoheadley

I could maybe do some tests on the HR rate myself, as I guess you do make a good point on the increase in strikeouts would result in slightly less homeruns.

From whatever I have read on fangraphs and sites like that, pitching in relief will make it easier to have a lower BABIP, because you can pitch harder and better while in relief. Tom Tango has also said that relievers have a BABIP 17 points lower then average compared to starters, and that is an amount that can have some significance. I am not sure on how this would work for a pitcher who switches between the bullpen and the rotation, but 17 points is a significant improvement for relievers.

Pitching "harder" would translate to velocity, which in OOTP's model would translate to Stuff. So that's already modeled. It would be interesting to see if this naturally leads to relief pitchers in OOTP having similarly lower BABIP. It seems like there are several different possible reasons for relief pitchers to have lower BABIP that are just a function of how they are used (like, as already mentioned, they tend to be put in more favorable match-ups), which would thus already be a part of basic OOTP gameplay.

[Pacoheadley]

Originally Posted by Cinnamon J. Scudworth

Pitching "harder" would translate to velocity, which in OOTP's model would translate to Stuff. So that's already modeled. It would be interesting to see if this naturally leads to relief pitchers in OOTP having similarly lower BABIP. It seems like there are several different possible reasons for relief pitchers to have lower BABIP that are just a function of how they are used (like, as already mentioned, they tend to be put in more favorable match-ups), which would thus already be a part of basic OOTP gameplay.

As I have said, I do know the stuff rating is higher. However, from my couple years of playing I have never noticed any correlation at all between a stuff rating and a pitcher's BABIP. The issue of relievers getting better matchups is somewhat taken away by teams using pinch hitters against them too. I have not seen any difference on average in reliever's BABIP compared to a starter's, and certainly not enough to see a difference of 17 points on average. I guess I could try to test this by simming dozens of seasons and checking a player's BABIP as a starter versus a reliever, but I might not have the time to do so.

[statfreak]

Originally Posted by Pacoheadley

I guess I could try to test this by simming dozens of seasons and checking a player's BABIP as a starter versus a reliever, but I might not have the time to do so.

But, this is what you'd have to do to prove your assertion. Without statistical proof your first post is nothing but conjecture based on your failure to see the movement ratings change.

The onus is on your to prove your theory with substantial research and not just say to change the game because you don't see a change in the movement rating and therefore the game must not work the way it should.

Unless you know exactly how the ratings work in relation to each other and how outcomes are determined, you can not say no perceived change in Movement means homerun rates remain constant whether a pitcher is used as a starter or reliever.

[Pacoheadley]

Originally Posted by statfreak

But, this is what you'd have to do to prove your assertion. Without statistical proof your first post is nothing but conjecture based on your failure to see the movement ratings change.

The onus is on your to prove your theory with substantial research and not just say to change the game because you don't see a change in the movement rating and therefore the game must not work the way it should.

Unless you know exactly how the ratings work in relation to each other and how outcomes are determined, you can not say no perceived change in Movement means homerun rates remain constant whether a pitcher is used as a starter or reliever.

I know, sometime later today or tomorrow I might test this out, whenever I have the time to do so. The Babip change is a bit more of a problem for me though, as it is a bigger change then the home run rate, and that will be the main thing I hope will get changed if I am correct.