Are Tango aging curves impacted by liars?

Raidergoo · 03-07-2009, 11:36 AM

When reading about how Vladimir Guerrero lied about his age, I had a thought.

How are the Tango aging curves distorted by players lying about their ages?

This has been a very common practice for Caribbean region players over the last few decades. I also imagine that it was common in America two generations ago (or so) when records were not kept nearly as well. Look at all the boys who lied about their age to enlist for action in WWI and WWII.

How does the math play out? Is this simply too small of a sample size to affect the data? I am not sure it is.

Oh, yeah, and paging RonCo...

rogmax11 · 03-07-2009, 03:17 PM

Vladdy lied??

I missed this somehow, how old is he really?

Would be poetic justice if he'd invested with Bernie Madoff, no?

bababui · 03-07-2009, 03:27 PM

He is one year older than originally thought although the Angels were aware of his real age.

rogmax11 · 03-07-2009, 03:35 PM

So, not quite ready to join the cane-and-walker set. Thanks for the info,sir.

Cryomaniac · 03-07-2009, 07:23 PM

Who was that guy who said he was 23 but actually like 27?

Left-handed Badger · 03-07-2009, 09:43 PM

I do remember Ellis KInder a pitcher for the Red Sox in 40s/50s. Lied about his age. He lived in some small Southern town, and wasnt discovered by scouts till like he was 24. So, he lied and said he was 21.

I know Julio Franco's birthdate went from 1958 in the 1980s, to 1961 in the 90s. Back to 1958 when made a comeback.

satchel · 03-07-2009, 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raidergoo

Is this simply too small of a sample size to affect the data? I am not sure it is.

An interesting idea to ponder, but surely the inaccurate official birthdates of major leaguers don't skew the numbers too much. The total deviation in years probably isn't that great, relative to the whole data set.

The Wolf · 03-07-2009, 11:53 PM

Vladdy lied, the aging curves died.

RonCo · 03-08-2009, 07:10 PM

Dunno.

Tango hangs around here. He would be the one to answer, since he knows the detailed data he was working with.

My guess is the sample size is enough that the impact would be minor in magnitude. Mathematically there would obviously be some impact.

Malleus Dei · 03-09-2009, 12:14 PM

I have to agree. There are very few liars, primarily because there are very few who are in a position to lie, and they are too few in number to have much of an impact.

jbergey22 · 03-09-2009, 02:03 PM

This is what makes baseball such a great sport. Pretty much every riddle can be resolved by numbers. The sample size is much too large for it to make a difference. Its hard to believe so many teams can struggle for extended periods of times in todays game with so much valuable information available to them.

The Outlaw · 03-12-2009, 02:14 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyYhkWTORmQ

This thread made me think about this...

demetrios999 · 03-16-2009, 04:37 PM

When I was a boy growing up in Cuba, Luis Tiant was a national hero. Now I'm thirty-six and he's thirty-seven - Tony Perez

Tram2Whitaker · 03-18-2009, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cryomaniac

Who was that guy who said he was 23 but actually like 27?

I believe that was former Detroit Tigers Shortstop Deivi Cruz.

Coincidentally, he "came clean" only after he was traded and given a contract extension.

CBL-Commish · 03-19-2009, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tram2Whitaker

I believe that was former Detroit Tigers Shortstop Deivi Cruz.

Coincidentally, he "came clean" only after he was traded and given a contract extension.

Strangely enough, to this day he has the plate discipline of a 3-year-old.

Stealcompany · 03-19-2009, 02:38 PM

I remember a rookie with the Blue Jays, Junior Felix, who broke in the 1980's. He was someone who came out of Epy Guerro's school in the Dominican Republic. He had a good rookie season but I recall there being talk that he was older than he claimed.
It got to the point that fans were referring to him as "Senior Felix" or "Junior Senior"

03-07-2009, 11:36 AM	#1
Raidergoo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 9,005	Are Tango aging curves impacted by liars? When reading about how Vladimir Guerrero lied about his age, I had a thought. How are the Tango aging curves distorted by players lying about their ages? This has been a very common practice for Caribbean region players over the last few decades. I also imagine that it was common in America two generations ago (or so) when records were not kept nearly as well. Look at all the boys who lied about their age to enlist for action in WWI and WWII. How does the math play out? Is this simply too small of a sample size to affect the data? I am not sure it is. Oh, yeah, and paging RonCo...

03-07-2009, 07:23 PM	#5
Cryomaniac Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2007 Location: Hucknall, Notts, UK Posts: 4,902	Who was that guy who said he was 23 but actually like 27? __________________

03-07-2009, 09:43 PM	#6
Left-handed Badger Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: at the altar of the baseball god praying for middle infield that can catch the ball Posts: 2,036	I do remember Ellis KInder a pitcher for the Red Sox in 40s/50s. Lied about his age. He lived in some small Southern town, and wasnt discovered by scouts till like he was 24. So, he lied and said he was 21. I know Julio Franco's birthdate went from 1958 in the 1980s, to 1961 in the 90s. Back to 1958 when made a comeback. __________________ -Left-handed groundball specialist -Strikeouts are for wimps

03-12-2009, 02:14 PM	#12
The Outlaw Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2004 Location: SC Posts: 62	"I am 12" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyYhkWTORmQ This thread made me think about this...

03-07-2009, 03:17 PM	#2
rogmax11 All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,320	Vladdy lied?? I missed this somehow, how old is he really? Would be poetic justice if he'd invested with Bernie Madoff, no?

03-07-2009, 03:35 PM	#4
rogmax11 All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,320	So, not quite ready to join the cane-and-walker set. Thanks for the info,sir.

03-08-2009, 07:10 PM	#9
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,379	Dunno. Tango hangs around here. He would be the one to answer, since he knows the detailed data he was working with. My guess is the sample size is enough that the impact would be minor in magnitude. Mathematically there would obviously be some impact.

03-09-2009, 02:03 PM	#11
jbergey22 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Minnesota Posts: 3,481	This is what makes baseball such a great sport. Pretty much every riddle can be resolved by numbers. The sample size is much too large for it to make a difference. Its hard to believe so many teams can struggle for extended periods of times in todays game with so much valuable information available to them.

03-16-2009, 04:37 PM	#13
demetrios999 Bat Boy Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 14	When I was a boy growing up in Cuba, Luis Tiant was a national hero. Now I'm thirty-six and he's thirty-seven - Tony Perez

03-19-2009, 02:38 PM	#16
Stealcompany Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 291	I remember a rookie with the Blue Jays, Junior Felix, who broke in the 1980's. He was someone who came out of Epy Guerro's school in the Dominican Republic. He had a good rookie season but I recall there being talk that he was older than he claimed. It got to the point that fans were referring to him as "Senior Felix" or "Junior Senior"