Oden clearedfor preseason: How good will he be?

[Michael Hopcroft]

Portland Trailblazers rookie center Greg Oden has been cleared for the preseason next year, after microfracture surgery on his knee took away his 2007-08 season before it could begin.

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The question that follows is quite simple: how much of the game that made him the #1 overall pick a year ago has Greg Oden lost, and how long will it take him to get it back? And will this leave the Blazers able to continue improving, or wil they regress as Oden finds his game?

[Prodigal Son]

He'll be alright. He won't be a polished offensive force and he'll be out of position a lot on defense. He'll also disappear randomly for quarters or halves at a time in big games. That's all going off of what I saw at O$U, anyway.

[Michael Hopcroft]

Originally Posted by Prodigal Son

He'll be alright. He won't be a polished offensive force and he'll be out of position a lot on defense. He'll also disappear randomly for quarters or halves at a time in big games. That's all going off of what I saw at O$U, anyway.

So you're saying he'll be all right, but won't help the Blazers improve? Do I have you right?

[His Own Bad Self]

Originally Posted by Michael Hopcroft

So you're saying he'll be all right, but won't help the Blazers improve? Do I have you right?

The Blazers are better with him than without, no matter how rusty he is. Their centers last year were Channing Frye, Joel Pryzbilla, and Raef LaFrentz. Oden is better than all of them.

[rudel.dietrich]

He will never have the value Durant will have

[Jeremy Weimer]

He's better than what the Wolves have at center. We'll take him.

[yankeesrule]

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

He will never have the value Durant will have

durants a scorer but thats all, not much D or rebounding, at least until he puts in the effort to become a complete player

[Bryan Swartz]

He will never have the value Durant will have, this is true -- he should never be foolish enough to set his sights that low.

Oden will be fine this year, his surgery was less serious than Amare's and it seems he's doing just dandy. He'll help Portland make the playoffs this year, and once he gets a few years under his belt it wouldn't surprise me if the Blazers are contenders. With Oden, Aldridge, and Roy, they've got one heck of a young nucleus.

[Michael Hopcroft]

My main concern about oden's game was that he was foul-prone in college, tending to pick up silly fouls at key times for the Buckeyes. Greg can't win games from the bench.

[jbergey22]

Oden will be very good defensively his first year and will grab a ton of boards. I think it will take 2-3 years before he is an All-Star caliber center offensively. I think his stats will look something like 14pts 11 boards 2 block per game. Trailblazers would be much improved without Oden with him they will be a playoff team.

[Michael Hopcroft]

I'm not so sure that they'll make the playoffs in 2009, or get very far if they do. The Western Conference is very deep; you could have 44-48 wins next year and miss the postseason in that conference.

[rudel.dietrich]

Originally Posted by yankeesrule

durants a scorer but thats all, not much D or rebounding, at least until he puts in the effort to become a complete player

Isn't scoring the idea of the game?

He dropped 20.1 PPG as a 19 year old
His body is already better than most NBA guards and is only going to improve as he ages
He could probably play SF and do quite well at it

Is there anything in basketball like Sabermetrics that can place a value on defense and equate it into points?

[Michael Hopcroft]

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

Isn't scoring the idea of the game?

Sort of. Yes, the team with the most points wins the game. But trying to prevent the other tea from scoring too many points is the mosdt effective way to do that consistently. That means changing shots, blocking out on the defensive glass, and generally interfering with the opposition (ideally without committing too many fouls)

He dropped 20.1 PPG as a 19 year old
His body is already better than most NBA guards and is only going to improve as he ages
He could probably play SF and do quite well at it

All this is true. However, there is another significant number; 20-62, the record of Durant's team his rookie year. He has to pick up the bulk of the scoring because nobody else will do it. Durant may well the the consensus rookie of the year, but he needs more help to be truly effective. being on a stable franchise would also help (the Sonics don't know where they'll be playing next year). Oden will have better players around him, on a team with very few uncertainties.

[Bryan Swartz]

I'm not so sure that they'll make the playoffs in 2009, or get very far if they do. The Western Conference is very deep; you could have 44-48 wins next year and miss the postseason in that conference.

True, but they won 41 this year without him. They were .500 in that tough Western Conference. So I think it's likely that they win 50 with him, and probably get bounced in the first round, or almost certainly in the second. It gets better from there in future years. I think that's the most likely scenario.

[CMH]

He'll be better than Okafor who was overrated from the get-go.

The injury also won't change Oden much. He was never mobile or fast. He'll be the same player he was always supposed to be.

[His Own Bad Self]

Originally Posted by Fallschirmjager

Is there anything in basketball like Sabermetrics that can place a value on defense and equate it into points?

Dean Oliver's work is probably the closest there is. But even then the individual's defensive success is affected strongly by the team's defensive strength.

[andjbock]

I wouldn't expect much from him in the first half of the season, especially after not playing at all last year. Probably only get 25 MPG. Like guys like Yao and Garnett, he'll probably get more opportunities in the latter half of the year.

[KurtBevacqua]

The big IF on Oden is his health. He has a history of serious injuries and that is very worrisome for a guy so young. But if he stays healthy he could become the dominant big man in the game. I think clearly he is the most unique big man to come into the NBA since Shaq. Granted, Duncan is phenomenal, but he is really a 4 and not a true, dominant 5. Oden is a dominant 5 all the way much like Shaq. He reminds me the most of Hakeem actually and I think if he stays healthy will have very similar numbers and impact Olajuwan had. Not right away mind you as he came in very young, but give him 3-4 seasons to deliver.

[CMH]

Olajuwon? Really?

Wow, that's really reaching for the stars, no?

Olajuwon was one of the most mobile big men during his time. That easily got him an extra 10 points a game.

Oden is slow and slower. I don't see the comparison at all. There are no big men like the big men of the 90's with Ewing, Smits, Olajuwon, Robinson, and company. They just don't exist anymore.

[Michael Hopcroft]

Originally Posted by YankeePride

Oden is slow and slower. I don't see the comparison at all. There are no big men like the big men of the 90's with Ewing, Smits, Olajuwon, Robinson, and company. They just don't exist anymore.

I find it interesting that of the four players you mention by name, only Hakeem and David Robinson are NBA champions, and those during the tail end of their careers. Seems to indicate that champions are no longer built from the center out. Of recent champs, only the various teams with Shaq can be said to have dominant centers (as opposed to 4s). The Celtics, for example, use interchangeable components at the 5, dominating the post with their 4 (Garnett). The Lakers don't run their offense through Pau Gasol (at least not when it works).