Tim Lincecum - Page 2

jeheinz72 · 04-20-2007, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

Russ Ortiz is terrible, and Lincecum is cheaper. Lincecum is likely better than all those guys RIGHT NOW except Cain, who I give him a year before he surpasses.

Ortiz is passable, passable enough that it's not worth possibly rushing Lincecum to bump him. Ortiz found a flaw in his mechanics over the winter which he thinks will help him avoid a year like last year. He's looked OK (not good, but ok) so far. He had a great Spring. I can see at least giving Ortiz 8-10 total starts (he's only had 2 thus far and the Giants have won or been in both games) before making a move.

Plus, it's not like we're talking about a franchise here who has a history of moving guys up quickly. Hell, even Cain could have been up probably 1/2 year to a year earlier than he was.

Luis_Rivera · 04-20-2007, 11:47 AM

Over on the other boards, I was talking about this, and I came to the conclusion that if Brian Sabean can get his head out of his ass and build an offense, then they could have a nice window of opportunity here.

A front 3 of Lincecum, Cain, and Zito locked up for the foreseeable future is nothing to sneeze at. Zito is not worth his contract by any stretch of the imagination, but he's a very good 3rd starter. Cain will likely be a very legit #1, and Lincecum has the potential to be a top 5 pitcher. An offense just needs to be built to support the staff, and the Giants could definitely be a top-tier team in the near future. I don't have too much faith in Sabean to build that offense, though.

sixto · 04-20-2007, 12:11 PM

If Ortiz doesn't belong in the rotation, then he doesn't belong on the roster, so why did the Giants even sign him? Considering that, the GM has to protect his investment for as long as he can. Ortiz has been relatively bad, so it's not like you can't foresee him getting booted sooner rather than later. But realistically, this is too soon. In OOTP where personalities aren't in play, it would be different.

However, Lincecum does not belong in the rotation anyway (as much as I'd like to see him there since he's on my fantasy team). The best place for Lincecum right now is long relief, in increasingly high leverage situations based on how well he does. You don't want him wasting his precious arm in AAA, that's for sure. Yet you don't want him accumulating so many innings in MLB that he has to be shut down (or risk overuse from a manager who has come to rely on him).

And unfortunately, his service time clock will start ticking, and teams have a greater incentive to delay their best players because the more they play, the sooner they reach arbitration eligibility. Teams have a bias against low-innings starters, which means they will tend to value a 25-year old pitcher who can go 220 IP with a 3.50 ERA over a 22-year-old who can go 176 IP with a 2.50 ERA. With good reason, since a pitcher with a 3.50 ERA should still win a good number of games.

For better or for worse, and in large part because of the CBA, the Giants are incented to hold Lincecum and any other young ace back.

darkhorse · 04-20-2007, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixto

Teams have a bias against low-innings starters, which means they will tend to value a 25-year old pitcher who can go 220 IP with a 3.50 ERA over a 22-year-old who can go 176 IP with a 2.50 ERA.

One could look to Cleveland to see see Sabathia has been used, whether by luck or design, in less than 200 innings in five of his six seasons despite his consistent excellence.

sixto · 04-20-2007, 12:38 PM

I'd say it was at least a little bit luck. In his youngest seasons, Sabathia was pitching for poor teams, and there was no need to overuse him. Plus you wonder if his fatness leads managers to feel he is more prone to breaking down, even though it is probably smaller pitchers (like Lincecum) who are more prone to build-related injury (though I can't back that up with facts).

As long as we're comparing pitchers one to one, I'd say Kerry Wood is another example of what can happen to a young pitcher. It's kind of a paradox: for many players, pitcher skills have been shown to be at their highest when they are youngest and most fragile.

Either way, I don't see why Lincecum wouldn't be well suited to starting out in long relief. Then again I would tend to start all young rookie pitchers there.

darkhorse · 04-20-2007, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Earl Weaver

Either way, I don't see why Lincecum wouldn't be well suited to starting out in long relief. Then again I would tend to start all young rookie pitchers there.

There's at least one person who would agree wit' ya.

Big Hugg · 04-20-2007, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

One could look to Cleveland to see see Sabathia has been used, whether by luck or design, in less than 200 innings in five of his six seasons despite his consistent excellence.

He has stints on the disabled list in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. Only reason he was under 200 innings.

andymac · 04-20-2007, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixto

However, Lincecum does not belong in the rotation anyway (as much as I'd like to see him there since he's on my fantasy team). The best place for Lincecum right now is long relief, in increasingly high leverage situations based on how well he does. You don't want him wasting his precious arm in AAA, that's for sure. Yet you don't want him accumulating so many innings in MLB that he has to be shut down (or risk overuse from a manager who has come to rely on him).

I agree with this...basically an Adam Wainwright approach but hopefully being able to use him for longer outings than the straight up closer role.

MuertoDesagradecido · 04-20-2007, 01:46 PM

If he's used in long relief I'd like to see something a little creative, such as letting him finish every fourth or fifth game whenever the starter leaves (as long as it's not more than 4-5 innings or something). He's supposed to be pretty rubber-armed and open to pitching in any situation, so it seems like a good fit. It's not like the Giants have any reliable late-inning relievers he'd be stealing innings from.

darkhorse · 04-20-2007, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Hugg

He has stints on the disabled list in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. Only reason he was under 200 innings.

Luck can definitely play a role in whether a talented young pitcher survives until his arm matures.

MuertoDesagradecido · 05-03-2007, 08:55 PM

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg...AG4OPKPFE3.DTL

Oh hell yes. I'm even more excited than I was when Matt Cain made his debut.

CMH · 05-03-2007, 09:14 PM

Still not 100% on him being called up, but truth is they should have done it by now.

Luis_Rivera · 05-04-2007, 12:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MuertoDesagradecido

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg...AG4OPKPFE3.DTL

Oh hell yes. I'm even more excited than I was when Matt Cain made his debut.

I'll probably watch his debut even if it's on the same time as the Red Sox.

Jonzard · 05-04-2007, 12:42 AM

I'm really furious that someone beat me to him in my fantasy league a few days ago. I'd been watching the news on him daily for some time now.

Luis_Rivera · 05-04-2007, 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonzard

I'm really furious that someone beat me to him in my fantasy league a few days ago. I'd been watching the news on him daily for some time now.

I was sure to pick him up as soon as Russ Ortiz had his first blow up!

darkhorse · 05-04-2007, 03:49 PM

AAA batters are hitting .119 against the Goliath of Bellevue.

If I miss his first start, I'ma be so pissed.

sixto · 05-04-2007, 04:45 PM

I took Lincecum in about Round 28 of my fantasy draft. Around the room was the same deafening silence I heard when I took King Felix two years ago, except everyone could spell Felix Hernandez. This time it was "Who?" and "How do you spell that?"

I have to give Baseball Prospectus credit - they are not always at the top of the field in judging players in their 20s and 30s, but when it comes to pitching prospects, they are required reading. I routinely have my pick of up-and-coming pitchers in my fantasy league and Lincecum is just the latest.

Erik W. · 05-04-2007, 05:13 PM

I managed to pick him up in both of my fantasy leagues last night thanks to this thread.

sixto · 05-06-2007, 10:32 AM

The Phillies never seem to hit rookie pitchers well the first time they face them. You can expect 9-12 Ks from Lincecum tonight.

MuertoDesagradecido · 05-06-2007, 05:32 PM

Yeah, I think Lincecum is going to do well in the K department - too many things stacked his way. AT&T is hell to hit in at 5:00, the Phillies strike out a lot as a team, he has a deceptive delivery and none of them have seen him before. It looks pretty good - the problem is that the Giants probably aren't going to hit Cole Hamels much, especially fielding their B squad.

05-04-2007, 12:42 AM	#34
Jonzard Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Minnesota Posts: 3,647	I'm really furious that someone beat me to him in my fantasy league a few days ago. I'd been watching the news on him daily for some time now. __________________ For a scientist must indeed be freely imaginative and yet skeptical, creative and yet a critic. There is a sense in which he must be free, but another in which his thought must be very precisely regimented; there is poetry in science, but also a lot of bookkeeping. — Sir Peter B. Medawar FTB

05-04-2007, 03:49 PM	#36
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	AAA batters are hitting .119 against the Goliath of Bellevue. If I miss his first start, I'ma be so pissed. __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan."

05-04-2007, 05:13 PM	#38
Erik W. Global Moderator Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Rivière-du-Loup, Qc Posts: 4,615	I managed to pick him up in both of my fantasy leagues last night thanks to this thread. __________________ Free agent baseball fan. Let's go (insert team name here)!

04-20-2007, 11:47 AM	#22
Luis_Rivera Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 4,177	Over on the other boards, I was talking about this, and I came to the conclusion that if Brian Sabean can get his head out of his ass and build an offense, then they could have a nice window of opportunity here. A front 3 of Lincecum, Cain, and Zito locked up for the foreseeable future is nothing to sneeze at. Zito is not worth his contract by any stretch of the imagination, but he's a very good 3rd starter. Cain will likely be a very legit #1, and Lincecum has the potential to be a top 5 pitcher. An offense just needs to be built to support the staff, and the Giants could definitely be a top-tier team in the near future. I don't have too much faith in Sabean to build that offense, though.

04-20-2007, 12:11 PM	#23
sixto Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 2,262	If Ortiz doesn't belong in the rotation, then he doesn't belong on the roster, so why did the Giants even sign him? Considering that, the GM has to protect his investment for as long as he can. Ortiz has been relatively bad, so it's not like you can't foresee him getting booted sooner rather than later. But realistically, this is too soon. In OOTP where personalities aren't in play, it would be different. However, Lincecum does not belong in the rotation anyway (as much as I'd like to see him there since he's on my fantasy team). The best place for Lincecum right now is long relief, in increasingly high leverage situations based on how well he does. You don't want him wasting his precious arm in AAA, that's for sure. Yet you don't want him accumulating so many innings in MLB that he has to be shut down (or risk overuse from a manager who has come to rely on him). And unfortunately, his service time clock will start ticking, and teams have a greater incentive to delay their best players because the more they play, the sooner they reach arbitration eligibility. Teams have a bias against low-innings starters, which means they will tend to value a 25-year old pitcher who can go 220 IP with a 3.50 ERA over a 22-year-old who can go 176 IP with a 2.50 ERA. With good reason, since a pitcher with a 3.50 ERA should still win a good number of games. For better or for worse, and in large part because of the CBA, the Giants are incented to hold Lincecum and any other young ace back.

04-20-2007, 12:38 PM	#25
sixto Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 2,262	I'd say it was at least a little bit luck. In his youngest seasons, Sabathia was pitching for poor teams, and there was no need to overuse him. Plus you wonder if his fatness leads managers to feel he is more prone to breaking down, even though it is probably smaller pitchers (like Lincecum) who are more prone to build-related injury (though I can't back that up with facts). As long as we're comparing pitchers one to one, I'd say Kerry Wood is another example of what can happen to a young pitcher. It's kind of a paradox: for many players, pitcher skills have been shown to be at their highest when they are youngest and most fragile. Either way, I don't see why Lincecum wouldn't be well suited to starting out in long relief. Then again I would tend to start all young rookie pitchers there.

04-20-2007, 01:46 PM	#29
MuertoDesagradecido Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Saint Francisco Posts: 436 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	If he's used in long relief I'd like to see something a little creative, such as letting him finish every fourth or fifth game whenever the starter leaves (as long as it's not more than 4-5 innings or something). He's supposed to be pretty rubber-armed and open to pitching in any situation, so it seems like a good fit. It's not like the Giants have any reliable late-inning relievers he'd be stealing innings from.

05-03-2007, 08:55 PM	#31
MuertoDesagradecido Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Saint Francisco Posts: 436 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg...AG4OPKPFE3.DTL Oh hell yes. I'm even more excited than I was when Matt Cain made his debut.

05-03-2007, 09:14 PM	#32
CMH Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 5,057	Still not 100% on him being called up, but truth is they should have done it by now.

05-04-2007, 04:45 PM	#37
sixto Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 2,262	I took Lincecum in about Round 28 of my fantasy draft. Around the room was the same deafening silence I heard when I took King Felix two years ago, except everyone could spell Felix Hernandez. This time it was "Who?" and "How do you spell that?" I have to give Baseball Prospectus credit - they are not always at the top of the field in judging players in their 20s and 30s, but when it comes to pitching prospects, they are required reading. I routinely have my pick of up-and-coming pitchers in my fantasy league and Lincecum is just the latest.

05-06-2007, 10:32 AM	#39
sixto Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 2,262	The Phillies never seem to hit rookie pitchers well the first time they face them. You can expect 9-12 Ks from Lincecum tonight.

05-06-2007, 05:32 PM	#40
MuertoDesagradecido Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Saint Francisco Posts: 436 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Yeah, I think Lincecum is going to do well in the K department - too many things stacked his way. AT&T is hell to hit in at 5:00, the Phillies strike out a lot as a team, he has a deceptive delivery and none of them have seen him before. It looks pretty good - the problem is that the Giants probably aren't going to hit Cole Hamels much, especially fielding their B squad.