Analysis Results: Aging Modifiers and Career Arcs

Seviien · 07-10-2006, 01:24 PM

Results:
1. Career arcs are well modeled in OOTP, but they could be improved
....A: Development is too slow
....B: Onset point of regression should be more varried
2. Aging and development modifiers have little or no effect

Methodology:
1. 24 team league fictional league w 162 game schedule
2. 3-tier minors (rookie level dropped)
3. tests conducted by varrying aging and development modifiers
4. each test was loaded from the same quicksave
5. each test simmed 25 seasons
6. results presented are an average of seasons 16-20 (i.e. "steady state")
7. results examined by distribution of the following by player age:
....A: AB for batters
....B: IP for pitchers
....C: GS for pitchers

Supporting documentation:
http://rapidshare.de/files/25464670/...mmary.xls.html

Doughnuts? · 07-10-2006, 01:57 PM

Any suggestions at all as to how to make it acceptable, given the game's limitations?

Nisca11 · 07-10-2006, 02:09 PM

For the Historical League that I simmed 100 years in order to get a history for my current playing I noticed I had alot of players playing into there late 40's. Is there anyway that I can adjust any modifier to get this down to a more normal range. I don't know but in browsing thru I guess more than half of the retirees that I was checking on were older than 45 years old. with 20 plus year careers for a large percentage of my history it kind of messes with the career numbers/records I wanted for when I really started simming my leagues.
Anyway, sorry for rambling, is there any simple way to edit this? I have seen some things in the options area, but I don't want to adjust the numbers the wrong way and have all my players playing until they are 66 or something.

Seviien · 07-10-2006, 02:18 PM

Doughnouts:
Given that in the fictional league tests that I ran the modifiers didn't produce much of an effect, I'm at a loss as to how to change the results to make them more accurate or otherwise.

Nisca11:
Were you importing from the database? That might produce different results...

Nisca11 · 07-10-2006, 02:28 PM

No, it was a fresh league I started at 1900 and simmed for 100 years until the year 2000. And I didn't change any league modifiers, other than team information.

dougaiton · 07-10-2006, 03:04 PM

Great work - fascinating!

2 points:
1) What was your draft size? The two biggest variables in changing league age distribution I found were number of minors and draft sizes.

2) Looking at your conclusions, it seems that there aren't enough old pitchers, and the peak in the middle is just too sharp - just with my eyes, I'm not sure that there should be double the number of age-28 ABs as age-31. Does that ring true?

Again, thanks.

Seviien · 07-10-2006, 03:55 PM

Nisca:
I'm not sure what to tell you. Without any adjustments, the oldest players I saw were around 40. After slowing down aging, there were a few batters who went as high as 45... but litterally only a few.

Dougnation:
Thanks

I forgot to mention that it was a 20 round draft.

I agree that the peak is too sharp. I think this is caused by two things related to the career arcs:
1. the onset of aging occurs too often at the same age
2. the pattern of development is overly consistent, and as a result there aren't enough "break through" talents that arrive on the scene when they're in their early 20's.

jarmenia · 07-10-2006, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dougaiton

Great work - fascinating!

2 points:
1) What was your draft size? The two biggest variables in changing league age distribution I found were number of minors and draft sizes.

Can you elaborate on this? How does the distribution change when you ave a large number of minor leagues say, 4+ as compared to only 1 or two minor leagues. Same question as it relates to draft size.

Zeyes · 07-10-2006, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seviien

I agree that the peak is too sharp. I think this is caused by two things related to the career arcs:
1. the onset of aging occurs too often at the same age
2. the pattern of development is overly consistent, and as a result there aren't enough "break through" talents that arrive on the scene when they're in their early 20's.

Regarding point 2, I'm currently checking into something that might be a bug and (partially) causing the dearth of young phenoms...the Game Guide says that "the MLEs of the lowest minor league within the league system are applied to the player's [current] ratings" when draftees are created (p.94 in version 1.1 of the Guide), but that may not be happening, and players are coming in too uniformly and most of all, too far away from the Majors in their development curve. Still checking though...

akw4572 · 07-10-2006, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nisca11

For the Historical League that I simmed 100 years in order to get a history for my current playing I noticed I had alot of players playing into there late 40's. Is there anyway that I can adjust any modifier to get this down to a more normal range. I don't know but in browsing thru I guess more than half of the retirees that I was checking on were older than 45 years old. with 20 plus year careers for a large percentage of my history it kind of messes with the career numbers/records I wanted for when I really started simming my leagues.
Anyway, sorry for rambling, is there any simple way to edit this? I have seen some things in the options area, but I don't want to adjust the numbers the wrong way and have all my players playing until they are 66 or something.

There is an aging modifier in the league setup tab.

Seviien · 07-10-2006, 06:30 PM

Zeyes:
I'm not sure if they're the same problem, but in any case I'm glad you're looking into it.

akw4572:
Yes there is an aging tab... but the whole point of this analysis is that it doesn't seem to do much -- at least not in my fictional tests. Anyone else able to get it to work?

General:
Any thoughts from SI here would be ausgezeignet

akw4572 · 07-10-2006, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seviien

Zeyes:
I'm not sure if they're the same problem, but in any case I'm glad you're looking into it.

akw4572:
Yes there is an aging tab... but the whole point of this analysis is that it doesn't seem to do much -- at least not in my fictional tests. Anyone else able to get it to work?

General:
Any thoughts from SI here would be ausgezeignet

So you USED it, and it didn't work????

Zeyes · 07-10-2006, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seviien

Zeyes:
I'm not sure if they're the same problem

I'm not, either.

I wouldn't be surprised if they're working in concert, though...players being rated too low to begin with, and not enough variation in the development patterns.

Qrusher14242 · 07-10-2006, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nisca11

For the Historical League that I simmed 100 years in order to get a history for my current playing I noticed I had alot of players playing into there late 40's. Is there anyway that I can adjust any modifier to get this down to a more normal range. I don't know but in browsing thru I guess more than half of the retirees that I was checking on were older than 45 years old. with 20 plus year careers for a large percentage of my history it kind of messes with the career numbers/records I wanted for when I really started simming my leagues.
Anyway, sorry for rambling, is there any simple way to edit this? I have seen some things in the options area, but I don't want to adjust the numbers the wrong way and have all my players playing until they are 66 or something.

I get the same thing. At any given time, theres at least 10 guys over 40 in my historical league. LOL and one guy is still going at 83.

swampdragon · 07-10-2006, 07:55 PM

This problem is generally related to setting injuries on low. Injuries play an important part in the aging arc.

Seviien · 07-10-2006, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by akw4572

So you USED it, and it didn't work????

Yup. I used it, and it didn't seem to do much.

cabot41 · 07-11-2006, 01:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swampdragon

This problem is generally related to setting injuries on low. Injuries play an important part in the aging arc.

I hadn't thought of this. Is the suggestion that I can increase the longevity of my players (in general) by reducing the injury frequency?

Great work btw Seviin. Now that I know what the general arch is, I can at least make better decisions about getting rid of aging players, even if I'd like the metrics to be different.

swampdragon · 07-11-2006, 02:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabot41

I hadn't thought of this. Is the suggestion that I can increase the longevity of my players (in general) by reducing the injury frequency?

Great work btw Seviin. Now that I know what the general arch is, I can at least make better decisions about getting rid of aging players, even if I'd like the metrics to be different.

The examples I've seen are pretty consistent. If you set injuries on low or very low, many of your position players are good well into their 40s with a few extreme examples playing practically forever.

07-10-2006, 01:24 PM	#1
Seviien All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 925	Analysis Results: Aging Modifiers and Career Arcs Results: 1. Career arcs are well modeled in OOTP, but they could be improved ....A: Development is too slow ....B: Onset point of regression should be more varried 2. Aging and development modifiers have little or no effect Methodology: 1. 24 team league fictional league w 162 game schedule 2. 3-tier minors (rookie level dropped) 3. tests conducted by varrying aging and development modifiers 4. each test was loaded from the same quicksave 5. each test simmed 25 seasons 6. results presented are an average of seasons 16-20 (i.e. "steady state") 7. results examined by distribution of the following by player age: ....A: AB for batters ....B: IP for pitchers ....C: GS for pitchers Supporting documentation: http://rapidshare.de/files/25464670/...mmary.xls.html Last edited by Seviien; 07-10-2006 at 02:19 PM.

07-10-2006, 02:09 PM	#3
Nisca11 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Brazil Posts: 25	For the Historical League that I simmed 100 years in order to get a history for my current playing I noticed I had alot of players playing into there late 40's. Is there anyway that I can adjust any modifier to get this down to a more normal range. I don't know but in browsing thru I guess more than half of the retirees that I was checking on were older than 45 years old. with 20 plus year careers for a large percentage of my history it kind of messes with the career numbers/records I wanted for when I really started simming my leagues. Anyway, sorry for rambling, is there any simple way to edit this? I have seen some things in the options area, but I don't want to adjust the numbers the wrong way and have all my players playing until they are 66 or something. __________________ I'm Winston Wolfe... I solve problems. If a soccer player falls down in the forest, does he make a sound?

07-10-2006, 02:28 PM	#5
Nisca11 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Brazil Posts: 25	No, it was a fresh league I started at 1900 and simmed for 100 years until the year 2000. And I didn't change any league modifiers, other than team information. __________________ I'm Winston Wolfe... I solve problems. If a soccer player falls down in the forest, does he make a sound?

07-10-2006, 03:04 PM	#6
dougaiton Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Location: Posts: 3,414	Great work - fascinating! 2 points: 1) What was your draft size? The two biggest variables in changing league age distribution I found were number of minors and draft sizes. 2) Looking at your conclusions, it seems that there aren't enough old pitchers, and the peak in the middle is just too sharp - just with my eyes, I'm not sure that there should be double the number of age-28 ABs as age-31. Does that ring true? Again, thanks. __________________ tThis shower of clowns My park-adjusted, historically split Born in '69 league file! (also at Joe's wonderful site +BBSC)

07-10-2006, 06:30 PM	#11
Seviien All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 925	Zeyes: I'm not sure if they're the same problem, but in any case I'm glad you're looking into it. akw4572: Yes there is an aging tab... but the whole point of this analysis is that it doesn't seem to do much -- at least not in my fictional tests. Anyone else able to get it to work? General: Any thoughts from SI here would be ausgezeignet Last edited by Seviien; 07-10-2006 at 06:31 PM.

07-10-2006, 01:57 PM	#2
Doughnuts? All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 704	Any suggestions at all as to how to make it acceptable, given the game's limitations?

07-10-2006, 02:18 PM	#4
Seviien All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 925	Doughnouts: Given that in the fictional league tests that I ran the modifiers didn't produce much of an effect, I'm at a loss as to how to change the results to make them more accurate or otherwise. Nisca11: Were you importing from the database? That might produce different results...

07-10-2006, 03:55 PM	#7
Seviien All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 925	Nisca: I'm not sure what to tell you. Without any adjustments, the oldest players I saw were around 40. After slowing down aging, there were a few batters who went as high as 45... but litterally only a few. Dougnation: Thanks I forgot to mention that it was a 20 round draft. I agree that the peak is too sharp. I think this is caused by two things related to the career arcs: 1. the onset of aging occurs too often at the same age 2. the pattern of development is overly consistent, and as a result there aren't enough "break through" talents that arrive on the scene when they're in their early 20's.

07-10-2006, 07:55 PM	#15
swampdragon Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Lonely Mountain Posts: 2,509	This problem is generally related to setting injuries on low. Injuries play an important part in the aging arc. __________________ “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies." -- C.S. Lewis