BoSox near a deal for Crisp, or "what's wrong with Andy Marte?"

MrWorkrate · 01-22-2006, 11:04 AM

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2301457

Quote:

The Boston Herald, citing unnamed baseball sources, reported that the Red Sox and Indians had agreed in principle on a deal that would send Crisp to Boston along with a swap of prospects.

The Boston Globe, also citing multiple major league sources, reported the team was still working on a deal for Crisp as well as a free-agent deal with Gonzalez, formerly of the Florida Marlins. Both newspapers said the Red Sox would include third-base prospect Andy Marte, who was acquired from the Atlanta Braves in the Edgar Renteria trade, as well as reliever Guillermo Mota.

So after the league applauds the BoSox stealing Andy Marte from Atlanta AND getting rid of Edgar Renteria's contract, they flip that into Coco Crisp, effectively trading Renteria for Crisp and Mota. I know Marte was rumored to have injury concerns, but to dump him off for Coco Crisp - a younger Matt Lawton - makes you wonder if Marte truly is deserving of his high praise, or if he truly has an injury no one is talking about.

CTSoxFan · 01-22-2006, 11:42 AM

I dont think its a bad trade, but I think the Sox got less value for Marte then they could have at another time, because they were trading from a spot of weakness. The Indians knew the Sox really need Crisp and were able to push hard for Marte, because the Sox were not willing to give up any of their big pitching prospects (Lester/Papelbon/Hansen). Crisp will be a good fit for the Sox, he won't be an upgrade over Damon, but he is young and will hopefully be the starting centerfielder and lead off man for at least three years.

Spielman · 01-22-2006, 12:01 PM

Heh. From a December 23rd entry ragging on Jim Armstrong in the "Fire Joe Morgan" blog:

http://firejoemorgan.blogspot.com/

Quote:

Originally Posted by FIRE JOE MORGAN

Armstrong: Who's in center field? Speculation mostly. Every able-bodied center fielder in the business is rumored to be headed for Fenway Park. Trouble is, not a one could give the Sox anything close to what they had in Damon.

Johnny Damon 2005 WARP3: 6.9
Coco Crisp 2005 WARP3: 6.9

The Red Sox are exceedingly unlikely to get Crisp from the Indians (especially in light of the Jason Johnson signing), but Damon is far from impossible to replace.

Maybe not so unlikely, huh?

Crisp was about as good as Damon last year, though IIRC, VORP rated Damon as being significantly better, so pick your ubergeek stat poison, I guess. In any case, he's younger and significantly cheaper. Nice move by the Sox.

scotto313 · 01-22-2006, 12:46 PM

Funny, I was wondering why the Indians would give up Crisp for so little.

DiMaggio5CF · 01-22-2006, 01:22 PM

Crisp is a solid player, but nothing more IMO.

I understand that the Red Sox fans will tell us that he's the best thing since sliced bread now, but I just don't see it.

Of course, at age 26, with a few good seasons already, he's poised for a breakout year, but I wouldn't bet on that actually happening.

He seems to be the guy he's been in the past two seasons: .300, 15 HR, .345 OBP, 15 SB. Solid all around, but really nothing special.

mh2365 · 01-22-2006, 01:36 PM

I'll take Crisp over Damon if only for the age difference. I know the Yankees won't consider anyone under 30 for their team but I'm glad to see the Sox are. As far as Marte goes, the Sox seem to have a logjam at 3B anyways so it just might have been the easiest prospect to trade. As long as none of the pitchers go I can deal with it.

DiMaggio5CF · 01-22-2006, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mh2365

I'll take Crisp over Damon if only for the age difference. I know the Yankees won't consider anyone under 30 for their team but I'm glad to see the Sox are. As far as Marte goes, the Sox seem to have a logjam at 3B anyways so it just might have been the easiest prospect to trade. As long as none of the pitchers go I can deal with it.

For the first two years, I want Damon in a landslide; for the two years after that, assuming no injuries or meltdowns, Crisp will probably have the edge because of the age.

Crisp is like the Yankees' Cano to me: decent in everything, great in nothing.

If you take Crisp, add .30 points to his batting average, 15 HR, or 20 SB, then you've got your self a great player. If he had any one thing that set him apart from the crowd, he'd be great. But he doesn't.

The one thing that I'm not clear on is his Defense. Can anyone give a scouting report? I remember him having decent range and a decent arm but nothing spectacular.

MrWorkrate · 01-22-2006, 02:10 PM

The thing with Crisp is that he's decent right now, but isn't a polished hitter. He had trouble against lefthanded pitching last year (.252/.305/.391), and has below average range in center field, where they're going to put him. In contrast, Marte has spent the last three years as the Braves #1 or #2 prospect in their entire system, dropping a .269/.364/.525 line in AA as a 20 year old and a .275/.372/.506 line in AAA as a 21 year old. John Sickels last year called Marte the #1 hitting prospect in baseball. His defense has gotten better, and looks to be at least a league average third baseman range-wise with a strong arm. Marte cut down his strikeouts and increased his walks last season, even with the jump from AA to AAA.

Now, Crisp could be the next Damon, and he's a much more affordable option than Damon ended up being, but if it were 1994, would you have traded Chipper Jones for Marquis Grissom?

MrWorkrate · 01-22-2006, 02:12 PM

dola,

Apparently, the Indians are getting Guillermo Mota too.

Joshv02 · 01-22-2006, 02:24 PM

Naw, I think that misses some aspects of this.

Crisp was rated the #1 defensive LFer in baseball last year by every pbp defensive system -- e.g., UZR had him about + 37, iirc. 37 runs above average. Wow. He may have been a below average CF a year or two ago (based on that data then available) but he is likely to grade out at least average now, if not above.

Crisp also plays in a pitchers park -- his singles, doubles and HRs will all get a boost from being in Boston. Last year he had the same EqA as Damon, he is significantly younger, and will make about $30mm less over the next 4 years. I assume Crisp will be at least as good as Damon over the next 4 years. That means that, even if it were straight up Marte for Damon, Marte would have to provide $30mm of value to be worth it the difference b/w the two.

In 1994, would you have traded Russ Davis for Kenny Loften?

Now, I'm just kidding, somewhat. I think Marte is likely to have a very very good career. And, I think over the next 10 years he will be better than Crisp. But, lets see how the final deal works out . . . if the Indians include Snyder and Garko, I wouldn't mind this deal. (I assume Sowers/Miller are off limits . . . ). I'd still rather have Reed or the drunkard Michaels, but Crisp is the best of the three of them, fwiw, and Snyder would be our #1 OF prospect and Garko our #1 1B(dh?) prospect. By far.

Joshv02 · 01-22-2006, 02:29 PM

Dola

Depending on who comes back, seems like a fair trade for both teams . . . with a slight overpay by the Sox (depending on the level of risk averseness you have). But, not a huge one.

Joshv02 · 01-22-2006, 02:37 PM

Trola,

On Crisp's defense -- Chone Smith projects him as +1 in CF, fwiw.

QuestGAV · 01-22-2006, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrWorkrate

Now, Crisp could be the next Damon, and he's a much more affordable option than Damon ended up being, but if it were 1994, would you have traded Chipper Jones for Marquis Grissom?

I'm not sure I really like projection by analogy when you're projecting a guy with no real major league track record as playing at a HoF level. I like Marte and I hope the Sox hold onto him (I've got mixed feelings on this potential deal), but there are alot of other potential outcomes for Marte's career than being a Chipper Jones clone. If Crisp continues along the 6.5+ WARP3 track, how much better could Marte really be? Not too much better, a win and a half at most on average. How much worse could he be? Alot worse, 4-6 wins per year.

mlyons · 01-22-2006, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshv02

Crisp also plays in a pitchers park -- his singles, doubles and HRs will all get a boost from being in Boston.

I think you might be overestimating Fenway's effects. He certainly should get a boost in doubles, it's true, but Fenway actually suppresses singles and homeruns overall, at about the same rate that Jacobs does. I'd wouldn't expect that Fenway would do much more than convert three outs into doubles for him over the course of the season.

Joshv02 · 01-22-2006, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

I think you might be overestimating Fenway's effects. He certainly should get a boost in doubles, it's true, but Fenway actually suppresses singles and homeruns overall, at about the same rate that Jacobs does.

Well, not according to Dan Sym's park factors: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ors_2003_2005/

mgsports · 01-22-2006, 02:42 PM

The Red Sox could just put Marte in RF and Nixon in CF!
Sign Clayton to play short!
Trade Wells to the Padres for Roberts or Guzman or both and others!
Sign Weaver to a contract!

Joshv02 · 01-22-2006, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgsports

The Red Sox could just put Marte in RF and Nixon in CF!
Sign Clayton to play short!

Nixon can't play center!

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgsports

Trade Wells to the Padres for Roberts or Guzman or both and others!

There are no indications they give both! I don't want Woody Williams!

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgsports

Sign Weaver to a contract!

Please, no!

Joshv02 · 01-22-2006, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

I'd wouldn't expect that Fenway would do much more than convert three outs into doubles for him over the course of the season.

I'll check tomorrow when I have my <s>slide ruler</s> spreadsheet.

mlyons · 01-22-2006, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joshv02

Well, not according to Dan Sym's park factors: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ors_2003_2005/

I'm working on my own right now (only for the major league parks, natch), and they don't really match up well with his, although it's difficult to say why, since he doesn't show his methodology. I am using an extra year's worth of data, not weighting recent years more heavily, and basing it on conversions of balls in play, so that might have something to do with it.

For what it's worth, I get:
Park____1B___2B___3B___HR__Out___BB____K
Fenway_.999_1.198_.791_.879_.978__1.018_.974
Jacobs__.980_1.057_.482_.845_1.006_n/c___1.060

(n/c indicates I haven't calculated that yet.)

KurtBevacqua · 01-22-2006, 03:00 PM

I'm really hesitant as a Tribe fan to make this deal, unless Marte is big league ready now. Problem is Cleveland has no one to take over for Crisp in left (Hollandsworth doesn't count). If Marte is as good as advertised, and ready to take third now, it would be a good upgrade over an aging Boone, but will it make up for what is lost in left? Cleveland expects to be in the playoffs this year, not building for a later date. That's why this isn't necessarily a good deal for the Tribe.

01-22-2006, 02:10 PM	#8
MrWorkrate All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Raleigh, NC Posts: 1,262	The thing with Crisp is that he's decent right now, but isn't a polished hitter. He had trouble against lefthanded pitching last year (.252/.305/.391), and has below average range in center field, where they're going to put him. In contrast, Marte has spent the last three years as the Braves #1 or #2 prospect in their entire system, dropping a .269/.364/.525 line in AA as a 20 year old and a .275/.372/.506 line in AAA as a 21 year old. John Sickels last year called Marte the #1 hitting prospect in baseball. His defense has gotten better, and looks to be at least a league average third baseman range-wise with a strong arm. Marte cut down his strikeouts and increased his walks last season, even with the jump from AA to AAA. Now, Crisp could be the next Damon, and he's a much more affordable option than Damon ended up being, but if it were 1994, would you have traded Chipper Jones for Marquis Grissom? __________________ I used to come here a lot. Now, not so much.

01-22-2006, 02:12 PM	#9
MrWorkrate All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Raleigh, NC Posts: 1,262	dola, Apparently, the Indians are getting Guillermo Mota too. __________________ I used to come here a lot. Now, not so much.

01-22-2006, 02:24 PM	#10
Joshv02 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: , " Posts: 3,082	Naw, I think that misses some aspects of this. Crisp was rated the #1 defensive LFer in baseball last year by every pbp defensive system -- e.g., UZR had him about + 37, iirc. 37 runs above average. Wow. He may have been a below average CF a year or two ago (based on that data then available) but he is likely to grade out at least average now, if not above. Crisp also plays in a pitchers park -- his singles, doubles and HRs will all get a boost from being in Boston. Last year he had the same EqA as Damon, he is significantly younger, and will make about $30mm less over the next 4 years. I assume Crisp will be at least as good as Damon over the next 4 years. That means that, even if it were straight up Marte for Damon, Marte would have to provide $30mm of value to be worth it the difference b/w the two. In 1994, would you have traded Russ Davis for Kenny Loften? Now, I'm just kidding, somewhat. I think Marte is likely to have a very very good career. And, I think over the next 10 years he will be better than Crisp. But, lets see how the final deal works out . . . if the Indians include Snyder and Garko, I wouldn't mind this deal. (I assume Sowers/Miller are off limits . . . ). I'd still rather have Reed or the drunkard Michaels, but Crisp is the best of the three of them, fwiw, and Snyder would be our #1 OF prospect and Garko our #1 1B(dh?) prospect. By far. __________________ Brookline Maccabees. RIP

01-22-2006, 02:29 PM	#11
Joshv02 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: , " Posts: 3,082	Dola Depending on who comes back, seems like a fair trade for both teams . . . with a slight overpay by the Sox (depending on the level of risk averseness you have). But, not a huge one. __________________ Brookline Maccabees. RIP

01-22-2006, 02:37 PM	#12
Joshv02 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: , " Posts: 3,082	Trola, On Crisp's defense -- Chone Smith projects him as +1 in CF, fwiw. __________________ Brookline Maccabees. RIP

01-22-2006, 11:42 AM	#2
CTSoxFan Major Leagues Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 493	I dont think its a bad trade, but I think the Sox got less value for Marte then they could have at another time, because they were trading from a spot of weakness. The Indians knew the Sox really need Crisp and were able to push hard for Marte, because the Sox were not willing to give up any of their big pitching prospects (Lester/Papelbon/Hansen). Crisp will be a good fit for the Sox, he won't be an upgrade over Damon, but he is young and will hopefully be the starting centerfielder and lead off man for at least three years. __________________

01-22-2006, 12:46 PM	#4
scotto313 All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Cleveland, Ohio Posts: 1,220	Funny, I was wondering why the Indians would give up Crisp for so little.

01-22-2006, 01:22 PM	#5
DiMaggio5CF All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 921	Crisp is a solid player, but nothing more IMO. I understand that the Red Sox fans will tell us that he's the best thing since sliced bread now, but I just don't see it. Of course, at age 26, with a few good seasons already, he's poised for a breakout year, but I wouldn't bet on that actually happening. He seems to be the guy he's been in the past two seasons: .300, 15 HR, .345 OBP, 15 SB. Solid all around, but really nothing special.

01-22-2006, 01:36 PM	#6
mh2365 Banned Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: louisville Posts: 14,941 Infractions: 0/2 (101)	I'll take Crisp over Damon if only for the age difference. I know the Yankees won't consider anyone under 30 for their team but I'm glad to see the Sox are. As far as Marte goes, the Sox seem to have a logjam at 3B anyways so it just might have been the easiest prospect to trade. As long as none of the pitchers go I can deal with it.

01-22-2006, 02:42 PM	#16
mgsports Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 159	The Red Sox could just put Marte in RF and Nixon in CF! Sign Clayton to play short! Trade Wells to the Padres for Roberts or Guzman or both and others! Sign Weaver to a contract!

01-22-2006, 03:00 PM	#20
KurtBevacqua Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 2,968	I'm really hesitant as a Tribe fan to make this deal, unless Marte is big league ready now. Problem is Cleveland has no one to take over for Crisp in left (Hollandsworth doesn't count). If Marte is as good as advertised, and ready to take third now, it would be a good upgrade over an aging Boone, but will it make up for what is lost in left? Cleveland expects to be in the playoffs this year, not building for a later date. That's why this isn't necessarily a good deal for the Tribe. __________________ "The type and formula of most schemes of philanthropy or humanitarianism is this: A and B put their heads together to decide what C shall be made to do for D. The radical vice of all these schemes, from a sociological point of view, is that C is not allowed a voice in the matter, and his position, character, and interests, as well as the ultimate effects on society through C's interests, are entirely overlooked. I call C the Forgotten Man" - William Graham Sumner