Draft Pick Signed, Then NOT Signed

[LansdowneSt]

He was never as good as the scout thought. Draftees never are. Especially pitchers. Here are the pitchers from 5 years ago - every team thought they got a great pitcher.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/d...from_type_hs=0

As to the nature of the development line, it's a very, very fair comment. If I may ask, would you like the revelation that he's likely to max out as a #3 delivered in a jagged line going down bit by bit or all at once? Or something in the middle? I'm not being a wise guy; I'm sincerely asking because there are different ways the game has approached the revelation of declining ability and/or unfulfilled promise, and everyone has a preferred way of seeing it evolve over time to mirror real life's varied baseball player career trajectories.

[DSinSoCal]

Originally Posted by LansdowneSt

He was never as good as the scout thought. Draftees never are. Especially pitchers. Here are the pitchers from 5 years ago - every team thought they got a great pitcher.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/d...from_type_hs=0

As to the nature of the development line, it's a very, very fair comment. If I may ask, would you like the revelation that he's likely to max out as a #3 delivered in a jagged line going down bit by bit or all at once? Or something in the middle? I'm not being a wise guy; I'm sincerely asking because there are different ways the game has approached the revelation of declining ability and/or unfulfilled promise, and everyone has a preferred way of seeing it evolve over time to mirror real life's varied baseball player career trajectories.

I think potential is potential, and that really shouldn't change much until injury or age becomes a factor. I think you should have to use the time in the minor leagues, with good coaching and careful handling, as well as the offseason training to UNLOCK that potential. I also think a player's internal personality traits should affect whether that potential is ever reached.

It's fine if an inaccurate scouting report is off by a few points, but a 100% accurate report should be 100% accurate. "Potential" is just a concept... it should be your job as the GM/Coach to unlock that potential. It shouldn't be up to the computer to arbitrarily steal it from you.

For a 19 year old player to have 70 potential for a straight year, and then just instantly get reduced by *15 points* during the offseason just because RNG says so... well, that's just not how real life works.

[DSinSoCal]

Originally Posted by DSinSoCal

Ya, had he just opted not to sign I would have written if off as just part of the realism of the game.

I will say though, after playing for a bit, I don't like the way the game handles the ratings system AT ALL. They're way too arbitrary, wildly fluctuating up and down for seemingly no reason. What good are the "potential" ratings when they can arbitrarily change so drastically?

I drafted a 5-star prospect and had several consecutive scouting reports over the course of a year showing 70 stuff/55 movement/70 control. I put him through an off season program to improve his pitch movement, which (shockingly) was actually successful!

I immediately pulled up the player page so I could see how much this young man had improved but, instead, I saw the exact opposite. Instead of improving, his MOV rating (both current and potential) stayed the same. Then I noticed that my scouting director filed a new report arbitrarily knocking him down to 55/55/65.

Really? A 15 point drop in "stuff" when the kid hadn't even thrown a game in 6 months? How is that even possible? He went from a "top of the rotation" prospect to a guy who now just "has the potential to be a middle of the rotation starter".

It's very WTF-y.

Now, 4 months later, the same scout changes his mind and bumps his 'stuff' rating up to 75. A 20 point swing back the other direction.

Unfortunately, his movement rating never did improve, despite successfully completing the 5 month, offseason training program. His potential actually just went down 5 points.