The 2022 (and beyond) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

Welp...



The Rays' bid for a threepeat is now on life support after they lost again at the Trop to San Diego with the Padres taking a 2-0 series lead as the action shifts westward. Tampa Bay couldn't hold a 3-0 lead with Jaheim Lennon running out of gas in the 7th to let the Padres within 3-2 and then it all went wrong in the 8th when Luke Little put a couple of men on to start the inning. Randy Rodriguez got the next two outs but couldn't get the third, giving up a 3-run homer (a problem of his this year) to lose it. And the Rays will need a turnaround from Game 3 starter Angel Vargas, who was dreadful in his two playoff starts this year (10 runs, 7 earned, in 6 IP) if they want to get back in the series.

[Art Deco]

All over but the shouting...



It's definitely Groundhog Day in late October as the Rays lost their third straight one-run game in this series and the third time a big late-inning hit won it for the Padres, once again off Luke Little. This time it was former Ray Elijah Green delivering the dagger, a 3-run homer in the 6th to break a 2-2 tie. Like Game 2 the Rays got back within one on a homer (this time from Jose Pino) but also like Game 2 (and Game 1) it wasn't enough. Benjamin Buckman will be going tomorrow to try to keep the season alive, otherwise these guys will be home in time to take their kids trick-or-treating on Halloween.

[Art Deco]

Living to play another day...



Thanks to yet another brilliant Benjamin Buckman outing the Rays' 2034 season will last at least one more day as Tampa Bay avoided the sweep with a 6-0 win over San Diego. He was the clear 4th starter in the rotation during the regular season but has pitched like a #1 in the postseason, today taking a no-hitter into the 6th before giving up a leadoff single. The team also put together a bullpen-proof lead with Kevin White delivering a 2-run double and Isaac Cedillos a solo homer. Hugo Najera will try to help bring the series back to St. Petersburg where anything can happen in Game 5 tomorrow.

[Art Deco]

We're still playing baseball...



It was about as tight and tense as it gets but thanks to another brilliant performance on the mound from the Rays staff, Tampa Bay is halfway to pulling off a reverse sweep and joining the 2004 Red Sox as the only MLB team to do so (and first in the World Series). Tonight it was Hugo Najera who was largely untouchable, going his buddy Buckman one inning better by taking a no-hitter into the 7th before giving up an infield single. Things got dicey in the 8th when Randy Rodriguez walked two men with one out and gave way to Gerald Ogando, who gave up a single to load the bases then got out of it before dispatching the Padres 1-2-3 in the 9th. Meanwhile the game's only run came on a solo shot from Alistair Hardy, who had fallen out of favor after a miserable season which saw him struggle against RHP. Fortunately he got to face a lefty in the 5th and took him deep. So now it'll be Jaheim Lennon in two days' time at the Trop trying to get us to what was once an unlikely Game 7.

[Art Deco]

No joy in Mudville...



The Rays' two-year reign as World Champions came to an end tonight at Tropicana Field as they fell to the Padres and saw their threepeat bid come up two games short. Jaheim Lennon was terrible (two two-run homers allowed in the first four innings) as was the offense (only 3 hits on the night despite San Diego losing their starter in the 1st), so the 2004 Red Sox' distinction as the only MLB team to reverse sweep remains intact. Still, winning 9 consecutive postseason series is quite the accomplishment, and of course there will be changes to come this winter. But congratulations to San Diego on their first-ever World Championship!

Not noted in the recap above was that San Diego's Jordan Ramos was named Series MVP, although his 7-24 with 1 HR and 4 RBI wasn't exactly notable. But in a series where nobody really cooked on offense (Nelson Haro was 10-23 with 4 RBI for the Rays) somebody still had to win.

[Art Deco]

While it was disappointing not to win, there's no shame in winning our third straight AL pennant and two championships in three years. However while on offense it's going to largely be a reload, the bullpen is going to require a makeover and some other changes will have to be made. The tough thing right now is that we have $170M to spend on payroll and that also happens to be the projected combined obligations we have to those still on the roster, with holes to fill. So some bodies are going to have to be shed and some deals made in order to field the best team we can in 2035.

First off, our free agents are largely from the bullpen where the longtime back end of Randy Rodriguez and Gerald Ogando are both out of contract. R-Rod slumped significantly last year (although he rebounded in the playoffs) while Ogando started 2034 poorly but wound up our best reliever and was our closer down the stretch and in the postseason. So we're going to need a new closer. Also opting out of his deal was starter Aldry Acosta, who missed the last couple of months with surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow, but we managed to get by without him. Elsewhere we say goodbye to Juan Oviedo and Walt Khattak (again), and of course midseason trade acquisition dud Juan Soto is gone (good riddance).

The salary situation for the rest who aren't making the minimum next year:



A position-by-position outlook:

C: A position of strength with Rutschman back again (albeit at 36 and making $25M) but he's still coming off a 4.2-WAR season. Jalen Lowe is a capable backup and capable of starting for many other teams, and we also have Sung-ho Kim at Durham who belongs in the bigs. Rutschman has another year on his contract (a player option which could go either way). I hate to trade Lowe and leave us struggling for the future but we might need to as he would bring more than Kim.

1B/2B/3B: Our offensive core of Haro, Pino and White returns.

SS: Isaac Cedillos is projected to make $4.1M next year and we have a capable (and better fielding) replacement in Vinny Arroyo, our #1 pick in 2033 who's ready for the bigs and had a +14.8 ZR at Durham. So Cedillos is either traded or non-tendered.

IF: Carson Williams won't be back, saving us about $5M and his utility role will go to Jon Ransom.

OF: I went "OF" here instead of the individual positions because it's a bit up in the air who plays where. Hector Gurrola is a lock at either LF or CF and Will Perez was impressive enough to claim a starting role, probably in CF. Alstair Hardy rewarded our faith in giving him a contract extension before last season by going out and hitting 216/308/356 against righties which is a problem since they're about 75% of starters. It got to the point where he sat against them but we're stuck with him at $8.3M next season so he'll get a shot to prove 2033 wasn't a fluke and play RF. And then there's Simon Juan, who earned 2.6 WAR overall last year and whom we could bring back at close to $5M to mix and match with Hardy and Perez although I'd like a cheaper 4th OF given our financial constraints.

DH: Up in the air right now with Evan Bell the best choice against RHP right now although he'd need a platoon partner, which could be one of the OFs if we keep all four or someone else altogether.

Rotation: A strength with Najera/Lennon/Vargas/Buckman/Fragoso all returning. We don't have any depth beyond those five though so an injury could be injurious.

Bullpen: As mentioned above, we're going to need a makeover. Chase Lee was outstanding last year and is probably our best remaining reliever but we're also not going to bring back Joe Boyle or Jaden Stevenson to save about $10M so we're going to have to be creative here.

Going to be an interesting offseason.

[Art Deco]

As always we start with the "in memoriam" section, i.e., players who retired:

Notables: Mike Trout (LA retires #27), Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Alex Bregman, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Dansby Swanson.

The decision was made to non-tender the following Rays, who didn't have any value on the trade market and whom we either don't want back or don't want back at their arbitration projection: Isaac Cedillos, Jaden Stevenson, Carson Williams and Joe Boyle. This group combined was expected to get around $20M, which is how much room we'll have under payroll now since we were right at the $170M limit.

We also kicked off the winter by making a big trade from our catching glut to bring in some pitching:



About a year ago I considered trading either Jalen Lowe or Kim and Atlanta was willing to give me Jimenez, who then went out last season and went 12-6, 3.43 with 205 Ks in 183 IP and earned 4.7 WAR on a minimum contract so I had my doubts they'd still be offering him but sure enough they were and I wasn't about to let the opportunity slip away again. And we also able to get Gonzalez, who while he hasn't pitched above AA, is rated 60/70/55 with 65 stuff potential and therefore seems ready to step right into a late-inning role with the bullpen, a serious need. Kim will give Atlanta a #1 catcher with his 60 power, 60 eye and 60 defense. Mariscal was a "make it work" guy who I doubt ever sniffs the majors.

Jimenez is now in our rotation, most likely at the expense of Danny Fragoso, who will serve as starter insurance and as a multi-inning reliever. We still need a few more arms for the pen but at least we have one at no cost for now (in fact Gonzalez doesn't even need to go on the 40-man).

We also grabbed another arm for the bullpen, claiming Danny Zavala on waivers from Cleveland. The righty is rated 65/50/40 with 75 stuff potential and made his MLB debut late last year. He's only 22 and has the ability to start but that comes with only 35 stamina.

Awards season:

Gold Gloves: Alistair Hardy won his second glove in RF (the first came in 2031) despite losing a lot of playing time late in the year. He was our only winner on a club that played subpar team defense.

Reliever of the Year: Seattle's Carlos Campos wins in the AL (40 SV, 1.89 ERA, and a ludicrous 3.8 WAR as a reliever thanks to a 13/113 BB/K ratio). Our Chase Lee finished third thanks to his remarkable 1.12 ERA in 48 IP and 0 HR allowed, good for 1.9 WAR. He even got a first-place vote (not mine). The NL recipient was Chad Bogen of Washington (36 SV, 1.58 ERA).

Silver Sluggers: No Rays winners, thought Rutschman might have a shot.

Rookie of the Year: Boston 1B Nelson Gonzalez took 27 first-place votes for the win after a .305-14-59 season while the NL winner was San Antonio's Mario Sanchez. The RF hit a whopping .347 to go with 13 HR and 61 RBI in 461 AB.

Cy Young: There could be no doubt as the Yankees' Ignacio Gonzales was a unanimous selection coming off a Triple Crown season which saw him go 20-6, 2.09 with 261 whiffs and 9.6(!) WAR. Our Jaheim Lennon was a distant second. Jose Coro of Miami took the NL nod thanks to a 17-9, 1.95 year with 197 whiffs in 208 IP. He was a bit lucky with a .231 BABIP.

MVP: Well the AL voting was about as fragmented as it gets:



(I showed 4th place since that's where Pino finished). A 3-way race went the way of Jimenez, who hit .322-31-110 with 7 WAR. Bichette was .314-40-121 with 7.1 WAR and Krieg .319-38-107 with 7.5 WAR. In essence you could go with either of the three (I voted for Krieg). Surprisingly, Ignacio Gonzales finished a distant sixth despite his 9.6 WAR, over 2 better than any batter. (I would have voted for him but I overlooked him).

In the NL things were much clearer with Milwaukee OF Dave Rivera taking 23 first-place votes for the award after a .302-57-126, 8.4 WAR season. His WAR total led all MLB hitters.

November 19: My Hall-of-Fame ballot:



It was quite the first-year class with Cole, deGrom and Yelich all making their initial appearances. Hopefully I can help push Altuve (71% last year), Goldschmidt (73%), Votto (65%) and Wainwright (68%) over the top this time around.

November 25: Salary arbitration time - we're going to the limit with Benjamin Buckman (offered $6.2M), Angel Vargas ($9.3M) and Simon Juan ($4.8M).

November 26: The arbitration decisions are in and the team went 0-3 as Buckman will get $6.9M, Vargas $10.4M and Juan $5.3M so there's about $2.5M more than we thought we might have to pay.

November 27: The international free agents were announced and it was a brutal crop of 1 or 2-star players so no hope there of getting a quality FA at a reasonable price. We have $16.7M to play with, but at least all we're looking for are a couple of bullpen arms.

December 2: The first big free agent domino fell as former Ray Taj Bradley signed a 5/90 deal with Philly.

December 4: We're slowly putting together a bullpen:



Like my AGM I was surprised all Arizona wanted for Segura was a C-level OF prospect in Mireles, but who am I to question them? Segura is rated 65/65/65 and was a 1-WAR reliever with a 2.98 ERA in 66 IP last year for the Snakes. He's making $2.2M but that's fine.

December 8: There goes Randy Rodriguez, our long-time closer who was one of the game's best before tailing off badly last year, and he joins division rival New York on a 2/11 deal.

December 10: A curious pair of signings by the Mets, who inked star C MJ Melendez to a 3/66 pact to presumably replace free agent Francisco Alvarez, only to turn around and re-sign Alvarez for 5/110. Melendez moves back to the OF?

December 15: And there goes the other part of our 1-2 bullpen punch the last several years as Gerald Ogando signs for 2/21 with San Diego in a case of "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" as the Padres just bested us in the World Series. Also veteran lefty starter Trevor Rogers joined Toronto for 3/54.

December 19: Joe Boyle, whom we non-tendered as he was due $6.7M in arbitration despite tearing his UCL last year, signed with Atlanta for 1 year at $2.8M. I had offered him $2.5M to come back but he declined, and I didn't want to go higher than Atlanta.

December 23: Added 1B Victor Solis and SS Bob Alvarez to the 40-man roster.

Rule 5 Draft coming up. We have 5 openings so if an intriguing bullpen arm pops up, we're on it. Solis has 70 power and makes a good reserve at Durham while Alvarez is a potential utilityman for us.

December 26: Selected P Jerry Montgomery from Detroit in the Rule 5 Draft.

Montgomery was the pitcher who intrigued us the most, rated 2.5 stars with 3 star potential. The righty has started in the minors but would be a reliever for us, rated 55/60/45 with potential for 5 better in stuff and control. If he sticks he'll likely be the last man out of the pen.

We did not lose anyone in the draft.

December 29: Biggest free agent signing of the winter so far as superstar CF Julio Rodriguez has moved down the Pacific coast from Seattle to San Diego on a 5/168 deal. The 34-year-old J-Rod is HoF-bound with 79.9 WAR to his name already along with 2080 hits which include 413 homers.

[Art Deco]

January 3: The Hall of Fame results are in, and congrats to a couple of first-ballot pitchers:



More frustration for the returnees as the likes of Yadi and Altuve fell short again.

January 14: Former Ray Yordan Alvarez is on the move again. After leaving us as a free agent and signing a 3-year deal with Detroit, the Tigers have shipped him to the Dodgers (with whom he originally signed as an amateur) for a couple of minor leaguers. Alvarez had a fine season with Detroit (271/358/502, 33 HR, 117 RBI, 3.4 WAR) but will be 38 in June.

January 28: We signed our first amateur IFA, 17-year-old Raul Medellin from the Dominican Republic. He has 55/60 potential and should end up in a corner OF slot. Nice, but not terribly exciting after the big fish we pursued signed with the Mets.

February 10: Walt Khattak, whom we brought back this year and became a free agent again, joined the Yankees for a 1-year, $1.7M deal. Meanwhile Jaden Stevenson, a swingman for us the last couple of seasons, signed a minor league deal with the Mets.

February 11: We got the preseason message from the owner and unfortunately no payroll bump.

February 18: Juan Soto may be bound for the Hall of Fame and he did help bring us a title in 2024 as a rental but his second-go-round for us last season was an utter disaster even if we did nearly win it all again. So he'll be less missed this time around as he signed a 2/23 deal with Toronto.

A much quieter January and February than November and December, as usual. We'll see what Spring Training brings.

[Art Deco]

A largely uneventful spring training although there was one (minor) injury of note. Rookie SS Vinny Arroyo, slated to take over as the starter, tweaked his hamstring late in March and was not added to the 40-man roster as a result. He should be OK in about 10 days and at that point we will likely bring him up although he did struggle at the plate in the preseason.

This leaves us with the following Opening Day roster:

C-Rutschman, J.Lowe
1B-Haro
2B-Pino
SS-J.Jones
3B-K.White
IF-Ransom
LF-Gurrola
CF-W.Perez
RF-Hardy
OF-Juan, V.Munoz
DH-E.Bell

SP-Najera, Lennon, J.Jimenez, Vargas, Buckman
LR-Fragoso
MR-C.Lee, Zavala, Montgomery, A.Salazar, Little
SU-D.Gonzalez, L.Gonzalez
CL-Segura

A look at the squad:



This lineup isn't exactly impressing OOTP:



We're projected to be the second-worst offense in the AL, although on the bright side we're supposed to have the second-best pitching.

Time now to see, starting with 4 games at Fenway Park to open the season.

[Art Deco]

The Opening Day box:



On Opening Day at Fenway Park the Rays stuck to the formula that got them to the World Series the last three seasons, winning two of them: outstanding pitching and just enough hitting as they got by Boston 3-1 to kick off the 2035 season. As you can see above Najera was dominating in his start, the new-look bullpen held the fort, and Pino came through with a big 2-run homer.

Game 2: 3-8 L. LP-Lennon (0-1, 5 7 4 4 1 7). As great as the pitching was yesterday it was terrible today. They did come back from a 3-1 deficit to tie it in the 6th but Lennon put some men on in the bottom of the inning and Little imploded as it went south from there.

Game 3: 8-9 L. LP-Segura (0-1). Starter-Jimenez (6 8 5 1 3 5). HR-K.White (1). Well this was a kick in the teeth. The Rays trailed 5-4 going into the 9th before rallying for 4 runs to go up 8-5, only to see new closer Segura only record one out while giving up 4 runs to lose it, the killing blow a 3-run walk-off homer by former Ray Wander Franco. White had a 2-run homer and Hardy drove in 3 for the Rays while Jimenez made his debut and pitched decently, hurt by his own fielding error for 4 early unearned runs.

Transactions: Just call it waiverpalooza as the Rays claimed 3 players on waivers, two of whom were pitchers. Incoming are former Atlanta righty David Whitfield, who saved 13 games last season and is rated 60/70/55, righty Manny Whitehead from Boston who was 11-6, 3.69 as a starter last year but will be used in long relief (rated 65/55/45 as a reliever), and OF Oscar Castro from Detroit, rated for 55 (60 potential) contact and 60 power and who's a righty batter who can platoon with Bell at DH. Castro has yet to play in the bigs. Making room for this trio are Ps Alex Salazar and Danny Zavala, and OF Victor Munoz. Also swingman Christian Rodriguez, whom we waived because he was out of options, was claimed by Colorado.

Game 4: 7-3 W. WP-Vargas (1-0, 6 6 3 3 0 5). HR-Pino (2), J.Jones (1). Massive game from Pino who drove in 5 with a 3-run homer, RBI double and sac fly to lead the way. The bullpen was fine as well today with new waiver claim Whitfield fanning a pair in a scoreless 9th - he could be the closer before long if Segura continues to struggle.

Team record: 2-2. Next up: Off to Kansas City for 3.

[Art Deco]

Game 1: 5-1 W. WP-Buckman (1-0, 5.1 5 1 1 1 5). HR-Gurrola (2). Buckman was very good in his season debut, Gurrola's solo homer in the 5th broke a 1-1 tie, and they tacked on 3 in the 8th to put it away.

Game 2: 9-0 W. WP-Najera (2-0, 6 3 0 0 0 8). HR-Hardy (1), Rutschman (1). The scoreline is deceiving because it was a 2-0 game after 7 before 3-run homers from Hardy and Rutschman in the 8th and 9th broke it open. Najera was dominant for the second time in as many starts so far.

Game 3: 2-1 W. WP-Lennon (1-1, 5.1 6 1 1 3 6). S-Whitfield (1). Lennon was in good form although he pitched with a lot of traffic but not so much the bullpen which was perfect for the last 3 2/3 with Whitfield earning his first Rays save. Ransom was 3-4 with a double, triple and run scored while Haro was 2-4 with an RBI single as Tampa Bay completed the sweep and allowed only two runs over the three games.

Team record: 5-2, which moves them atop the division. Next up: The 10-game road trip to start the season concludes with 3 in Detroit.

[Art Deco]

Game 1: 3-4 L (11). LP-Whitehead (0-1). Starter-Jimenez (6 6 3 3 1 10). Rays trailed 3-0 in this until the 7th when they tied it on Perez's 2-run triple, only to lose it in the 11th after the offense failed to score after putting the first two men on in both the 9th and 10th.

Game 2: 1-2 L. LP-Vargas (1-1, 5 5 2 2 1 5). HR-K.White (2). An anemic showing from the offense as they only had five hits and didn't score until White's solo homer in the 9th.

Game 3: 4-5 L. LP-Segura (0-2). Starter-Buckman (5 5 3 3 2 4). HR-Haro (1), Hardy (2). After sweeping the Royals in Kansas City the Rays in turn are swept in Detroit. Today they lost leads of 3-2 and 4-3 with Segura blowing the game in the 6th. Acquired as our potential closer he's instead been downright horrible so far with an 0-2, 14.54 record off a combined 4.1 10 7 7 1 4 line so far.

Team record: 5-5. Next up: A day off then we return home to play 3 against Cleveland.

[Art Deco]

Game 1: 4-0 W. WP-Najera (3-0, 9 2 0 0 1 7). HR-Pino (3), K.White (3). Najera was brilliant, pitching a complete-game 2-hitter on only 87 pitches, the first Maddux in this save for a Rays starter and doing so with room to spare. The offense was largely quiet except for the 5th when Pino hit a 3-run homer and White went back-to-back with him.

Game 2: 6-11 L. LP-Lennon (1-2, 3.2 6 5 3 3 7). HR-K.White (4), W.Perez (1). Lennon wasn't very good and the bullpen was even worse as the Rays fell behind 7-0 but got within 7-5 with a 5-run 7th. Then the pen gave up four more runs and that was that.

Game 3: 6-4 W. WP-L.Gonzalez (1-0). S-Whitfield (2). Starter-Jimenez (7 8 4 4 0 11). HR-Rutschman (2). Rutschman was Clutchman today as he came off to bench to hit a 2-run pinch-hit homer in the bottom of the 8th to break a 4-4 tie and give the Rays the win and the series. Tampa Bay trailed 4-1 in this game before Haro's 2-run triple got them back in it. Whitfield shut the door with a 1-2-3 9th on only 5 pitches.

Team record: 7-6. Fortunately nobody has raced out to a hot start in the AL East so the Rays are only 1/2 game back. Next up: After just 3 games at home we're back on the road again for 3 against the White Sox.

[Art Deco]

Game 1: 11-3 W. WP-Vargas (2-1, 7 7 3 3 0 4). HR-Haro (2), Pino (4), Juan 2 (2), K.White (5), Hardy (3). Despite the final scoreline the Rays trailed 3-2 after 5 in this one before going homer-happy with 6 in all including a pair of 2-run shots from Juan and a 3-run White jack.

Game 2: 6-7 L. LP-D.Gonzalez (0-1). Starter-Buckman (5.1 6 6 6 2 5). HR-Rutschman (3). Bad pitching doomed the Rays, who had a 3-0 lead early and twice came back to tie at 4-4 and 6-6, only to see Gonzalez give up his first run as a Ray in the bottom of the 8th to lose it.

Game 3: 7-2 W. WP-Najera (4-0, 6 6 2 2 1 6). HR-Rutschman 3 (6), Juan (3). Rutschman became the latest Ray to tie the team single-game homer record as he belted a trio and drove in 6 of the 7 Tampa Bay runs. Najera meanwhile proved he was human, allowing his first runs of the season in start #4 but still pitching a fine game.

Team record: 9-7, tied with Baltimore in first with the Yankees and Red Sox both 1/2 game behind. Next up: A day off then we return home for 3 against Kansas City.