Starter or reliever?

jayno829 · 10-05-2023, 02:36 PM

Like the title says: My question is this guy a starter or a reliever long term? If the third pitch develops, obviously an elite, Cy Young type pitcher. BUT, this guys' Stuff developed pretty fast, and his change up has still sat at 25 for TWO years, despite being a starter consistently in the minors.

Couple of questions for him: If I just stick him in the Major League bullpen, will that third pitch still potentially develop? Or would he be better suited to keep starting at AAA until that pitch comes along?

Playing with the Marlins, my margin is razor thin. I can currently trade him for another very highly ranked starter prospect who is close to ML ready (although not quite as good as him), or do I hold on to him in hopes of him developing that third pitch and at worst becoming a dominant closer?

CWess12 · 10-05-2023, 03:21 PM

Trade him for the SP prospect or keep him as a good (not great) reliever. That changeup is never gonna develop. He will also potentially have some platoon issues with LHH.

koohead · 10-05-2023, 05:53 PM

I recall a discussion a couple versions back about how changeups fail to develop more than other pitches. Will try to find the thread but anecdotally it does seem that way in my league in 23 at least.
That said, his 2 pitches and other ratings are good enough that he may still be successful as a SP. I would run him out there every 5th day and see what happens before moving him to the pen. Let the kid play!

MathBandit · 10-05-2023, 06:29 PM

I'd use him as a 95-110 IP fireman to be the most valuable relief pitcher in the league by a wide margin while I wait to see if his Change develops.

Syd Thrift · 10-06-2023, 10:34 AM

Meant to reply to this earlier, but he's just plain not going to be a starter for you until he develops the 3rd pitch. He could be a really good short reliever but the thing with high-POT, low current value pitches is that they very often never develop. Dude's already 23; if it's not there by the time he's 25 you can pretty much completely discount that 3rd pitch. I wouldn't even give it that long if I'm being honest.

The control on the other hand could continue to come through; my experience (admittedly in a league where I've flattened out development and aging) is that control, unlike new pitches and other numbers like speed or the BABIP side of "contact", will continue to develop past the age of 25. Like I said, this guy could become an extremely good short reliever, so I'm not at all going to say to send him off, especially in a modern league, unless you're getting a pretty good starting pitcher back for him. At worst, this is a guy who could put together a monster year as a closer that allows you to get a ton of value for him in trade.

mytreds · 10-06-2023, 07:50 PM

With that change up, reliever. It’ll never develop. But his stuff, fastball and slider will make him a serviceable reliever.

snepp · 10-06-2023, 10:33 PM

Platoon issues would be there, but he could be a really good reliever. Starter would be tough, he'd likely get blasted by the left-heavy lineups.

I'd probably still try him at the back of the rotation for SAG. Maybe set up an opener/follower arrangement where a lefty opens for him.

rudel.dietrich · 10-07-2023, 06:37 PM

My bigger question is why is he 23 and has never pitched higher than high A?

Why did you not push him harder with those ratings?

snepp · 10-07-2023, 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rudel.dietrich

My bigger question is why is he 23 and has never pitched higher than high A?

Why did you not push him harder with those ratings?

Turned 23 in September.

Makes most of his time the previous season in high-A as a 21-year-old.

Hammercraft · 10-10-2023, 11:49 AM

Emergency starter, long reliever. Let him establish some solid performance in that role then trade him in arbitration for a SP prospect

LuScorpio68 · 10-12-2023, 05:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by koohead

I recall a discussion a couple versions back about how changeups fail to develop more than other pitches. Will try to find the thread but anecdotally it does seem that way in my league in 23 at least.
That said, his 2 pitches and other ratings are good enough that he may still be successful as a SP. I would run him out there every 5th day and see what happens before moving him to the pen. Let the kid play!

I feel like this is still at least somewhat true for change-ups. I avoid drafting players in the first few rounds with very underdeveloped change-ups (unless they have 3 other pitches) specifically for that reason.

The player in question is unlikely to develop his change-up at this point, especially with a 25 current rating at 23. I'd give it a chance if he had 40 or more, but it's more likely that he is a reliever long-term. Depending on pedigree, he could land a decent return in a trade though. I've noticed some AI GMs (not all of them) focus on pedigree as well as actual potential, even when a top prospect is failing in the minors. Was able to capitalize on that a couple of times.

ronnieh · 10-13-2023, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by koohead

I recall a discussion a couple versions back about how changeups fail to develop more than other pitches. Will try to find the thread but anecdotally it does seem that way in my league in 23 at least.
That said, his 2 pitches and other ratings are good enough that he may still be successful as a SP. I would run him out there every 5th day and see what happens before moving him to the pen. Let the kid play!

True story. In my experience the changeup specifically virtually never develops. It's good or it's not and I ignore any potential on that pitch.

10-05-2023, 02:36 PM	#1
jayno829 Bat Boy Join Date: Oct 2023 Posts: 4	Starter or reliever? Like the title says: My question is this guy a starter or a reliever long term? If the third pitch develops, obviously an elite, Cy Young type pitcher. BUT, this guys' Stuff developed pretty fast, and his change up has still sat at 25 for TWO years, despite being a starter consistently in the minors. Couple of questions for him: If I just stick him in the Major League bullpen, will that third pitch still potentially develop? Or would he be better suited to keep starting at AAA until that pitch comes along? Playing with the Marlins, my margin is razor thin. I can currently trade him for another very highly ranked starter prospect who is close to ML ready (although not quite as good as him), or do I hold on to him in hopes of him developing that third pitch and at worst becoming a dominant closer? Last edited by jayno829; 10-05-2023 at 02:39 PM.

10-05-2023, 05:53 PM	#3
koohead Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 3,196	I recall a discussion a couple versions back about how changeups fail to develop more than other pitches. Will try to find the thread but anecdotally it does seem that way in my league in 23 at least. That said, his 2 pitches and other ratings are good enough that he may still be successful as a SP. I would run him out there every 5th day and see what happens before moving him to the pen. Let the kid play! __________________ GM - New Jersey Bears of the NPBL;

10-06-2023, 07:50 PM	#6
mytreds All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 1,115	With that change up, reliever. It’ll never develop. But his stuff, fastball and slider will make him a serviceable reliever. __________________ “Baseball isn’t statistics; it’s Joe DiMaggio rounding second.” “Once, centuries ago, it was the beloved national pastime of the Americas, Wesley. Abandoned by a society that prized fast food and faster games. Lost to impatience.” “ The term ‘WAR’ should be replaced by ‘WAG’. WAR isn’t an actual measurement; it’s just a wild-ass guess” -Bill James RIP National League 1876-2022 Floreat semper vel invita morte. I make custom ballparks.

10-06-2023, 10:33 PM	#7
snepp All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,459	Platoon issues would be there, but he could be a really good reliever. Starter would be tough, he'd likely get blasted by the left-heavy lineups. I'd probably still try him at the back of the rotation for SAG. Maybe set up an opener/follower arrangement where a lefty opens for him. Last edited by snepp; 10-06-2023 at 10:35 PM.

10-10-2023, 11:49 AM	#10
Hammercraft All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Wisconsin Posts: 729	Emergency starter, long reliever. Let him establish some solid performance in that role then trade him in arbitration for a SP prospect __________________ *PT: Black River Brewers*

10-05-2023, 03:21 PM	#2
CWess12 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jan 2021 Location: Denver Posts: 29	Trade him for the SP prospect or keep him as a good (not great) reliever. That changeup is never gonna develop. He will also potentially have some platoon issues with LHH.

10-05-2023, 06:29 PM	#4
MathBandit All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 1,445	I'd use him as a 95-110 IP fireman to be the most valuable relief pitcher in the league by a wide margin while I wait to see if his Change develops.

10-07-2023, 06:37 PM	#8
rudel.dietrich Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Zürich, Switzerland Posts: 8,608	My bigger question is why is he 23 and has never pitched higher than high A? Why did you not push him harder with those ratings?