The W.P. Kinsella League random update thread

[BirdWatcher]

The Denver Brewers are having their worst season in nearly two decades (they are on pace for their worst record since 1967, when the team went 80-82).

Will it surprise you if I say that I am somewhat happy about this and consider it evidence that this fictional league, and OOTP, are working the way they should? If anything, the fact that the Brewers won 100 or more games for 9 straight seasons (1974-1982) was the troublesome fact.
Don't get me wrong, it's fun to win. And it's not that I'm not trying to field a winning club this season also. Granted, I did make a few philosophical decisions- particularly focusing on building the pitching staff entirely from prospects (every starting pitcher currently on the club was drafted by us), not through free agency or trades- that might have meant that there would be some growing pains. But there is no intentional tanking, or semi-tanking, going on here.
My perception is that one factor is that OOTP is getting gradually more challenging- particularly when it comes to making trades-for the human G.M. And that is as it should be, in my opinion.

And, if anything, this seasons struggles for the Brewers probably just mean that I will stick around running the Brewers for longer than I might have otherwise, not needing to move to a lesser club for a fresh challenge.

So, let's take a look at things at this stage of the season for our Brewers:





As you might have been able to guess from the images above, the three Denver Brewers who were selected to this year's All-Star roster were starting pitcher Austin Bond, first baseman Chris Romines, and left fielder Val Guzman.

For Austin Bond this is his second All-Star selection, his first being in 1983. Bond is one of our smartest and hardest working players and, as has been discussed often here, has over-achieved his perceived abilities. (In some ways he reminds me of our former team Captain Matt Helm in this regard, though the more durable Bond is putting up even better numbers thus far.) To be fair, Bond has probably also been somewhat lucky this year, as is indicated by his .268 BABIP against, his 3.8 K/9, which is below his career 5.0 K/9, and his 2.5 BB/9, a bit higher than his career 2.0 BB/9. Then again, his 3.77 FIP is solid and he has a FIP- of 87, right about his career average. So while Bond isn't a great pitcher, he is a great competitor and he gives his club a chance to win in nearly every start. (Bond came in 4th in voting among starting pitchers in the MGL.)

Val Guzman is another hard working player who has over-achieved in his career. Sure, he was a 1st round supplemental draft pick in 1972 (34th overall) but he never cracked the top 100 prospect list as a minor leaguer and profiled as likely a 4th outfielder before joining the big league club. And now he has been named to his 5th All-Star game, this time as the starter voted in by the fans. He has a slash line of .325/.415/.601 and it is his ability to get on base and his great speed once he is there that have been some of his most durable calling cards as a player. He also has decent power, hitting at least 20 homers in 2 seasons and being in double digits now in 7 of his 9 full-time seasons in the bigs.

Chris Romines, in his rookie season at age 25, was also selected by the fans as the starter at his position (first base). On the subject of over-achievers, Romines was the Brewers 7th round pick (#183 overall) in the 1981 draft. He was drafted as a third baseman and can still play that position quite well, with a strong infield arm. As a first baseman he fits into the Denver Brewers historical trend of having excellent fielders at this position not usually known for fielding. While Romines is not of the defensive caliber as 6-time Gold Glover Bobby Erbakan, he is probably about the equal of his immediate predecessor, Brett Taranto, which is to say among the better defenders in the league at the position. Romines won't hit for much power, but he is proving to be one of the best contact hitters in the game, and has a slash line of .383/.407/.532. He might not hit many home runs but he does have 21 doubles and 6 triples and therefore a good slugging percentage. Although he doesn't walk much (12 walks this season), he also rarely will strike out (7 K's). Perhaps the biggest surprise is that with just above average speed and baserunning abilities, according to the scouts, Romines has legged out many infield singles and has solid baserunning numbers this season. And, you know, those 6 triples say something about this too. He is not a base stealer but he has swiped one bag this year and hasn't been caught stealing yet. He is a switch-hitter who is particularly potent from the left side of the plate but can also hit left-handers. The Brewers have several first base prospects- particularly power-hitting types- coming up through the system but for now this young man has more than earned the starting job.

[BirdWatcher]

I am guessing that in spite of the great variation in types of fictional OOTP leagues that members of these forums have created and spend gobs of time immersed in, there are some universal elements of appeal and that primary among these is the joy of getting lost in an alternate baseball universe. One which often becomes even more real and present than the flesh-and-blood game outside of our imaginations and the roomy confines of the OOTP program.


That is certainly the case for me with the W.P. Kinsella League (and it's larger baseball universe, which at this point includes not just five levels of minor leagues affiliated with the 24 clubs in the WPK, as well as an international training facility for each club, but also feeder leagues of both the collegiate and high school variety, and most recently added an independent league (the Iowa Baseball Confederacy) which offers a sort of last chance landing spot and/or non-affiliated place to audition for WPK franchises for players who are having trouble getting jobs elsewhere in professional baseball). With the WPK now in its 21st year of existence, the balancing act for me is between forging forward in anticipation of what comes next for the league while also stopping and savoring the flavor of what already is and of the growing history of the universe.

One of the things I enjoy spending time tracking and researching and, well, just thinking about, is how the first round draft picks have fared in the WPK baseball world. And we are now at a stage of league history where the earliest drafts have mostly played out and some judgements can be made.
For the purposes of this post, let's just take a quick look at the first 5 amateur drafts in the WPK and see who the winners were, how overall #1's did, who missed completely, what the total WAR numbers are for each draft at this point, when little will be changing as the few players still in the league are aging and slowing down.

1965 Draft:
The #1 overall pick of the 1965 draft was starting pitcher Kyle Bidwell, who was chosen by the Portland Wild Things. Bidwell is still an active player at age 38. Well, not really active, as he is currently out with a torn flexor tendon and not expected to be able to pitch again for another year. And he has also been pitching in the minor leagues for most of the past few years, having appeared in just 4 games for Brooklyn during the 1983 season. His career WAR in the WPK is 35.4.
This is good for 3rd best among players taken in the first round of the draft. The leader, now retired, is outfielder Hector Alvares, taken 5th by Jacksonville, who finished his career with 49.4 WAR. Alvares was a 2-time All-Star and 2-time Gold Glove right fielder, but certainly not a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate.
Second highest WAR from this draft's first round was the 44.9 that shortstop Mike Silveira put up in his 11-year career, mostly with the club that drafted him with the 10th pick, the Seattle Alligators. Silveira was a 4-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove winner, and 3-time Silver Slugger who for a short time was considered the best in the game at his position, but his career took a nose-dive after age 30 and his last appearance in the WPK was at age 32.
The overall WAR combined for the players taken in the first round of this draft is 234.4 and this number is likely not to change much before they are all retired. Only four of the players chosen are still playing and none of them are currently at the big league level. Three of the guys chosen in this round never made it to the big leagues and several others didn't put up career WAR's above the single digits.

1966 Draft:
The first player chosen in the 1966 draft was starting pitcher Mike Stagner, by the Milwaukee Cadets. Stagner has had a long and mostly successful career, with 210 wins (along with 191 losses) and a career WAR of 69.3. He has been an All-Star 5 times and has one Harris/Lee award (best pitcher). He's likely a borderline Hall of Fame candidate. Stagner, who is 41 years old, was recently released by the Pittsburgh Roadrunners and his big league career may be over.

He is not, however, the most storied player taken in this round, as that honor goes to sure future 1st ballot Hall of Fame outfielder Justin Vargas, who was chosen 11th overall by the Los Angeles Spinners. Vargas has put up 86.9 WAR in his career, but not even one of which came as a member of the Spinners as they foolishly traded him to Boston while he was still a minor leaguer. Vargas is an 11-time All-Star, a 2-time league MVP, 3-time Silver Slugger, 1-time Gold Glover, and one of the best players of his generation. At age 37 he is currently playing only part time for the Portland Wild Things but as recently as two seasons ago he put up 5.2 WAR.
There were a couple of now retired outfielders from this draft class who put up at least 30 WAR careers (Greg Koenig, 35.4, Eric Taylor, 32.9) but the numbers thin out quite a bit after that, with the class totaling 345 WAR (again, we are just talking about the 1st round picks from this draft, not the entire draft class). Only Vargas, Stagner, and pitcher Eduardo Saucedo (now down at AAA) have not retired yet among this cohort. Two players did not ever play at the big league level.

1967 Draft:
The top pick of the 1967 draft, taken by the Detroit Falcons, was starting pitcher Edgar Lira. Lira is still pitching in the bigs, now with the Philadelphia Mud Hens, and having a decent season, but his career has been a bit uneven. He did go 19-6 with a 2.78 ERA for Jacksonville in 1982- his best season- and he won at least at least 16 games 4 others seasons, but his career record is 133-121 with a career 3.71 ERA and 30.8 WAR.
The best career WAR in this draft class is easily the 88 that left fielder Curtis Horah put up in his 15 plus year career. Horah was a decent all-around player but his real claim to fame (and the thing that might get him into the WPK Hall of Fame in Dubuque, Iowa) was his defense. He accumulated a phenomenal 326.1 Zone Rating over the course of 1,877 games played in left field. Horah was chosen 4th in the draft by the Boston Berserkers.
After Horah, the next highest career WAR belongs to the very next guy chosen in this round, the Denver Brewers pick, outfielder Joe McPhillips. McPhillips is still playing, of course, and at this point has a career WAR of 57.2.
Also still playing is starting pitcher Mike Hiatt, who holds the record for most career no-hitters in WPK history with 3. Hiatt has a career WAR of 56.1 and at age 36 is having a solid season for Jacksonville so he will likely pad this total before he retires.
Two players from this round never made the bigs, and a few others didn't do much in the WPK, but overall this was a strong draft round, with a combined WAR of 478.2 and counting.

1968 Draft:
El Paso chose starting pitcher Craig Luther with the first pick of the 1968 draft, and Luther had an okay 13-year WPK career, accumulating 37.2 WAR but with an unimpressive career record of 159-180 and ERA of 3.98.
The best career, thus far, from this round of the draft has been that of middle infielder Jared Hancock. Hancock has put up 56.3 WAR over the course of his 15 plus year career, and is an 8-time All-Star and 3-time Silver Slugger. Most WPK insiders think that Hancock would have had an even more impressive, and probably Hall of Fame career, had he not been nudged aside for playing time by the GOAT Bud Lindsay and another likely future Hall of Famer named John Mussaw. Having played his entire career with the San Antonio Keys, who picked him 5th, Hancock deserves special credit for being willing to play second fiddle to these other two great players, given that on most teams he would have been their best player and he likely will fall short of the Hall of Fame just because he has mostly been a back-up player since age 31, in spite of continued elite-level skills and performance.
Only one player chosen in this round did not make the big leagues, and although there aren't any Hall of Fame caliber careers here, there is enough quality depth that the overall WAR is 406.8 and counting. Thirteen of the twenty players from this round have retired but a few are still accumulating numbers.

1969 Draft:
The first overall pick of the 1969 draft belonged to the Charlotte Sting and with that pick they chose German-born, Oral Roberts University starting pitcher Lienhart Brown. In many ways this seemed like a logical choice as the young knuckleballing specialist was seen as having elite skills and was expected to confound WPK hitters. On the other hand, there were some who were concerned that Brown showed signs of being potentially very injury prone. In the end, the doubters were right. Brown pitched parts of 6 seasons in the WPK, in between an extremely long list of injuries, both small and large, and while he hung on in the minor leagues through the 1981 season, he last pitched in the big leagues in 1977, with his best season coming in '76, when he started a career-high 28 games, going 12-8 with a 2.88 ERA. Overall he accumulated just 9.6 WAR at the WPK level, with a career record of 42-35 and a 3.34 ERA, all with the Charlotte team.
The very next pick went to the Brooklyn Aces and they also chose a starting pitcher, a kid out of Lutheran High School in Rockford, Illinois named Aaron McNally. McNally is almost surely headed to the WPK Hall of Fame after his career ends, having won 3 Harris/Lee awards, and having been named to the All-Star game 8 times. He has a career 75.3 WAR with a record of 211 wins and 138 losses and a 3.01 ERA. Granted, McNally's career has been in decline since he signed a 7-year deal with Detroit as a free agent heading into the 1980 season and he led the league in losses last season with 19 and is off to a 6-9, 4.69 ERA season this year, but he was the best pitcher in the WPK through his 20's, leading the league in wins, ERA, K's, and WAR 3 times each. He is one of 2 pitchers in WPK history to win a pitching Triple Crown, and McNally has done it twice, in both 1974 (25-6, 2.44, 171 K's) and 1975 (21-5, 2.47, 182 K). In hindsight, certainly the Charlotte Sting wish they had chosen McNally over Brown with the first pick.
They also could have chosen Dan Bottom, who was chosen by El Paso with the 3rd pick overall, and who has put up 41.2 WAR over the course of 13 seasons pitching for the Dawgs, winning the Harris/Lee award in 1974 when he went just 11-4 over the course of 29 starts but led the league in ERA with a miniscule 2.12. The left-handed starting pitcher is considered wrecked at this stage of his career and like McNally he also lost 19 games in 1984, but he still has had a much better career than the 1-1 in this draft.
But if we are going to talk about missed opportunities in this draft, pity the 10 teams who passed on shortstop Bud Lindsay before the San Antonio Keys chose him with pick number 11. Lindsay is merely the GOAT at his position and probably of his generation in the WPK. He has also been injury prone but when healthy he has been the best all-around player and team Captain in the WPK, and he has managed to stay healthy enough to accumulate 99.9 career WAR and counting. He is as sure a first ballot Hall of Famer as exists in the WPK (with the great Felix Lopez right there with him). Lindsay is a 4-time league MVP, 12-time All-Star, 7-time Gold Glove shortstop, 10-time Silver Slugger, was the 1972 SJL Rookie of the Year, was the 1981 SJL LCS MVP, and the 1984 SJL LCS MVP, and during his career his team has gone to the post-season 6 times, winning the championship 3 times.
The first position player taken in this draft, like Lindsay also a shortstop, was Oscar Pereida. Unlike Lindsay, the disruptive Pereida isn't going to the Hall of Fame, unless as a visitor who paid for the admission ticket. Pereida is still playing ball, though at this point for the Omaha Packers of the independent Iowa Baseball Confederacy, and his career as a WPK player amounts to parts of 7 seasons, with his 339 plate appearances in 1980 with the Houston Cavaliers being his most significant season, one in which he hit .209/.294/.314 for a -1.0 WAR season. His career WPK WAR is -1.5. Yeah, that is the shortstop the Oklahoma City Diamond Kings choose with the 5th overall pick of the draft when they could have had Bud Lindsay.
Two-way player Vincent Medina was chosen by Baltimore with the 16th pick and between his pitching and hitting (mostly playing first base) he has put up a combined 48.9 career WAR. He is a 7-time All-Star and has won 4 Silver Sluggers for the pitcher position. He is considered wrecked at age 34 but while he rarely pitches anymore, having appeared out of the bullpen just 4 times this season with no starts and a 7.20 ERA, he continues to be good at the plate, hitting .323/.382/.528 in 353 PA's this season.
Two players from this draft class retired without ever having made the big leagues and 5 others have also retired, including top pick Brown, and 1973 league MVP and batting Triple Crown winner Joe Brodeur (.361, 41 HR's, 141 RBI in 1973). Brodeur was one of the most hated men in the game, a divisive clubhouse presence, and a dirty player who was suspended for the first 80 games of the 1975 season after failing a PED test. Although he had a few solid seasons after that (4.5 WAR in 1976, 3.4 WAR in 1977) he was essentially washed up by age 27. He finished his WPK career with 32.4 total WAR, 10.2 of those coming in 1973 and another 6.5 in 1974. Early career collapse and subsequent anonymity couldn't have happened to a nicer guy (sarcasm alert).
The combined WAR of 460.8 makes it this the second most successful first round draft class of the first five years of WPK history after the 478.2 1967 class, though the remaining players might have just enough left to catch up with that '67 cohort (although they also are still adding to their total). No matter what, any draft class that includes Bud Lindsay and Aaron McNally, two future HOF'ers, is a great draft class.


As always, my reach exceeds my grasp and I could go on and on about these topics as I feel like I've barely scratched the surface.
But for now I will leave off and take up with the second part of the title above- player similarity scores- in the next post.

[BirdWatcher]

So, in the last lengthy meandering post I talked a bit about one of my favorite pastimes involving the WPK, which is keeping track of and analyzing the results of first round amateur draft picks over time.

Another one of the things I spend a great deal of time thinking about- and in various ways tracking, including keeping very old-fashioned notebooks full of player similarity scores- is the WPK Hall of Fame and how players who end up on the ballot stack up in terms of credentials and comparable players, mostly in the WPK but also (especially with players who are inducted into the Hall) with players from MLB history.

When I started doing this a few years ago I was trying to capture far too broad a swath of WPK players, being by nature something of a completist. But I've found that limiting this to just players who actually make a WPK Hall of Fame ballot is the sweet spot in terms of usefulness and manageability.

I should say too that I also keep records, which I update yearly during the WPK All-Star break, of the top 30 or so players in terms of five of the most significant Hall of Fame credential stats/tools that the game tracks. Namely: JAWS, Hall of Fame Monitor, Hall of Fame Standards, Black Ink, and Gray Ink. At some point, as the WPK history proceeds, I'll probably have to break out the players already elected into the Hall into a separate list and make these lists only consist of non Hall of Famers.

But another way of looking at Hall of Fame candidacies and also to find an objective way of sorting former players into somewhat useful statistical categories (or families), is using another Bill James created tool which he called Similarity Scores, what is captured in OOTP on the Player Comparison screen under the title Comparable Players (Career). I'm not entirely sure what version of this tool OOTP uses, but given the scores shown here I assume it is basically the James tool I referenced. I myself, in looking at comparable MLB players to WPK players use a slightly more updated version of the Similarity Scores tool than that which Bill James outlined in his book "Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame: Baseball, Cooperstown, and the Politics of Glory", which is the book I constantly return to when thinking about these things. (Jay Jaffe's "The Cooperstown Casebook: Who's in the Baseball Hall of Fame, Who Should Be In, and Who Should Pack Their Plaques" is also a touchstone, of course.)

I've already spent quite a bit of your time with this intro so I promise I won't get into details about this tool, assuming that you likely are already familiar with it and if not you can certainly research it if interested. But I will say that the basic premise is that the tool starts with a 1000 point total and counts down from there to account for any statistical (and positional) variances between any two players. So if two players were exact statistical and positional identical twins, the Similarity Score (or Comparable Players score) would be 1000. Any score of 950 or better between two players means they are unusually similar. Between 900 and 949 they would be seen as truly similar. From 850-899 James would refer to the players as essentially similar. Any score between 800-849 would indicate the two players are somewhat similar. And anything from 750-799 would peg the two players as being vaguely similar. Below 750 pretty much means there is no similarity worth noting, based at least upon this particular statistical tool.

One of the essential tenants of this tool is that the really exceptional players, the top tier/first ballot Hall of Fame types, don't have many, if any, very similar players. I mean, that is the point of the word exceptional, right?

As a WPK example, here is the top portion of the comparable WPK players list for Hall of Fame relief pitcher Jamel McNeil:



As you can see, the most comparable/similar player to McNeil in the WPK is current veteran Denver Brewer reliever Tim Shore. And with a score of 806, Shore really isn't that similar to McNeil, but as the pitcher atop the WPK saves leaders boards (he has 420 and counting), Shore is the most likely next Hall of Fame relief pitcher in the WPK. It's not surprising that the next guy on the list is Pat Brooks, who still has an outside chance of being elected into the Hall, having seen a significant upturn in his voting totals on his 5th year on the ballot last year, when he was on 56.8% of the ballots.
The most comparable player I have been able to find to McNeil in MLB history is Rich "Goose" Gossage. They have an 811 Similarity Score. The MLB GOAT reliever (or at least, closer) Mariano Rivera only scores 666 (spooky) compared to McNeil. But this makes sense as they pitched in very different statistical contexts, McNeil was a multi-inning workhorse stopper type reliever and didn't rack up nearly as many saves, and McNeil finished his career with the most strikeouts in WPK history (2,227) in spite of only starting one big league game and even now is 3rd all-time in this category. Both McNeil and Rivera are exceptional, outliers really, at their position, but they went about it very differently. (Of course, if we dig past the mere statistics, these two pitchers are even more different, with McNeil being a horrible disruptive influence on every team he played for and being universally hated, though also feared and respected on the field, and of course Rivera was humble and kind and well loved and a terrific teammate.)

It also shouldn't come as a surprise that the two starting pitchers who are in the WPK Hall of Fame, former Brewer Cheol-han Lee and the great Columbus Whaler lefty Jake Harris, are each other's most comparable players. It also shouldn't be surprising that on both of their lists the very next guy is current pitcher Aaron McNally, while on Harris list the third most similar player is his former Whaler teammate and fellow left-hander Luis Ramirez. Of the current crop of veteran starting pitchers, these are the two most likely to be joining Harris and Lee with plaques in the WPK Hall.



Among the MLB pitchers I have looked at as possible comparisons for Harris and Lee, Roy Halladay is the one who scored highest for both, 913 with Cheol-han and 906 with the lefty Harris.

There is also a class of starting pitcher who shows up on both lists and heavily on each other's lists of whom perhaps one or two might still slip into the Hall. This includes Jason Wilson, Jaime Schardein, Jose Santos, Bobby Cruz, Jose Casillas, Reece Vaughan, and Jesse Hartong. These are the guys who could probably best be described as Hall of the Very Good starting pitchers, with some of them being accumulators (Hartong, Wilson, Vaughan) and others having shorter careers with impressive peak years (Santos, Schardein, Cruz, and Casillas- who had his likely Hall of Fame path career derailed by a career-ending injury at age 35).

Among position players we can see that two great centerfielders of the first generation of the WPK- Felix Lopez and Lazaro Lowndes- are each other's most comparable players and no other players are even really close. They also happen to be the only two players, so far, who collected 3,000 hits in the WPK, and they rate 1st (Lopez, 656) and 3rd (Lowndes, 568) on the career stolen base list.



Speaking of Hall of Famers and/or future Hall of Famers who have strong comparability, how about the two great Jesus' third basemen, Casiano (elected in 1984) and Hernandez (likely to be elected on his first ballot in 1987). While they are not as similar as Lopez and Lowndes, they are quite similar, though for Casiano there is one player just slightly ahead of Hernandez in this measure and that is outfielder Cody Kane (886).
Kane is an interesting case study. The diminutive left fielder who was oft-injured but a great team leader, by many HOF measures looks like a borderline candidate (100 HOF Monitor, 41 HOF Standards, 44.1 JAWS) but he shows up on the comparable players lists for several Hall of Famers and likely future Hall of Famers.



Former Brewer Ryan Rodgers is also an interesting case. While I would never make an argument for Rodgers as being the most exceptionally good player in WPK history thus far, he is almost surely a Hall of Famer, and according to the Similarity Scores system he seems to have one of the more unusual profiles, with only one other player even showing up as being vaguely similar to him (and that is a current player so it could change significantly still). Granted, Rodgers was an outlier in his ability to draw bases on balls, atop the all-time list with 1540, with only the also retired Nick Haran anywhere near him at 1442. At some point I'll take the time to see what I can track down in MLB history in terms of comparable player career stats.



That's probably enough of this for now, but of course I'd always be wiling to answer any questions anyone might have about any of this.

[Palaaemon]

Bird,

So, I have to ask, could you please do a comparison on Bobby? I do realize he is far from unique but I am curious who he might compare to best in the WPK and the history of the MLB.

Also, where is he now and how does he fare?

Thanks for your time brother.

Have a Great night!

[BirdWatcher]

Originally Posted by Palaaemon

Bird,

So, I have to ask, could you please do a comparison on Bobby? I do realize he is far from unique but I am curious who he might compare to best in the WPK and the history of the MLB.

Also, where is he now and how does he fare?

Thanks for your time brother.

Have a Great night!

Hey Palaaemon,
So to answer your last question first, Bobby is still out there on the free agency market. Although the scouting reports still indicate he has some skills (at least a useful backup player, minor league depth piece, pinch-hitter/pinch-runner), he is wrecked and disruptive and so far nobody seems to be interested in him. (The current date in the WPK, as I type this, is August 6th, 1985.)

Here are his WPK comparables:





So that's a pretty solid group to be associated with. Maybe no Hall of Famers but a good deal of Hall of the Very Good type players.

His top comparable, Danny Sanchez, won an SJL MVP award in 1968 and was a 7-time All-Star, who put up 58.0 WAR over his 14 WPK seasons. Sanchez has been on the HOF ballot for 2 years now, with vote percentage totals of 8.8 and 9.4. Good enough to stay on for now, but likely to fall off the ballot soon.

David Beane was a 4-time All-Star, won 1 Gold Glove as a right fielder, played for 8 different WPK teams over the course of 18 seasons, putting up a total of 57.1 WAR. Although he played for a great number of teams (and did have low loyalty) he was never considered a disruptive clubhouse influence the way Bobby is. He was also a member of 3 championship teams, although the last 2 were as a part time player in his final two WPK seasons (at age 43 and 44!), with San Antonio and finally Portland. His first was with Columbus in 1975 when he had a 4.6 WAR season.

Power-hitting first baseman Drew Johnson played for a little over 14 seasons, amassing 27.8 WAR and being named an All-Star 4 times and a Silver Slugger award winner twice. He was a very good player in his 20's and then hung around in his 30's playing mostly part time and not adding much value (though he did have a 2.1 WAR season 1981 at age 36, the last year he played full time).

Ricky Salinas is certainly a Hall of the Very Good type player, having won a league MVP in 1974 while playing for Jacksonville, being named an All-Star 3 times, while also winning 4 Gold Gloves as a right fielder, being part of 3 championship teams (he was the 1969 KCS MVP), and once winning a Silver Slugger award. Salinas led the league in batting average once, when he hit .352 in 1974 and finished his career with a .300/.342/.418 slash line and 47.8 WAR. He was a hard-working, well-liked teammate but almost surely falls short of Hall of Fame induction.

Josh Schultz is still playing at age 37, though in a very limited fashion, as a member of the Chicago Fire. He is a 7-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove winning first baseman, won 1 Silver Slugger award, and was the 1971 SJL Rookie of the Year. He has put up 48.6 WAR over the course of 14 plus seasons but looks to be at the end of the line. His younger brother, Quincy Schultz, is a center fielder for the Portland Wild Things and one of the best players in the game and won the MGL MVP award last season, but has injury-proneness issues.

Jason Janes was one of the best power-speed combo players of the early days of the WPK, and somewhat underrated. He was a 4-time All-Star and finished his 13-year WPK career with 213 home runs and 245 stolen bases, and 53.7 WAR. He led the league in runs scored once and doubles once. He has been on the HOF ballot for 2 years and jumped from 6.6% representation on ballots to 12.0% last year. It's not likely he will ever make it to the required 75% though.

Trevor Leach though does have a chance to make the Hall, even if more of a borderline chance than a great chance. After the two Jesus's- Hernandez and Casiano- Leach was the best third baseman of his generation. And a great leader also (Captain). He was a 10-time All-Star, 1-time Gold Glover, 1-time Silver Slugger (competing with now HOF'er Casiano for years suppressed this total), and has one championship ring, from 1978 when he played for the El Paso Dawgs and was the KCS MVP. He retired after 14 plus productive seasons in the WPK with a career WAR of 64.8.

I am pulling for Jose "Swan" Gutierrez to make the Hall eventually. He is a current player still, and remains a star (and team Captain) at age 33 as a member of the El Paso Dawgs. He is a 7-time All-Star, 1-time Gold Glove center fielder (although he has been playing left field for the past several years now), a 2-time Silver Slugger, and he was the MGL Rookie of the Year in 1974 as a member of the Charlotte Sting. He has 56.0 WAR and counting (on pace for 4.2 this season). He's a borderline HOF candidate at this point but a few more solid seasons and he might just make it. I hope he does.

And finally, Antonio Sosa, who retired in 1977 after playing 13 seasons in the WPK (he was already 29 when the league started), earning 63.7 WAR in a fine career. He was a 7-time All-Star, 1-time Silver Slugger as a center fielder. He was another great leader, team Captain- so quite a few of Bobby's top comps are with players who had much different clubhouse intangibles than he does. Sosa has been on the Hall of Fame ballot for 3 years now, starting with 9.4% of the voters including him on their ballots his first year of eligibility, seeing that rise to 12.2% the next year, but then fall to 6.5% most recently as he just hung on. A Hall of the Very Good player.


I haven't yet looked to see what MLB players Bobby might be comparable to but I'll try to get to that eventually.

Thanks for asking, and taking an interest in the WPK, as always.

[Palaaemon]

Bird,

Once again you out do yourself! That's what I love about what you do. Your presentation is superb, the amount of detail is amazing and you go above and beyond. I know you do all this because you have a passion and love to research and explore your creation to not only record history but also to find all the interesting information that you and others like me are interested in knowing. I believe most if not all OOTPers do this to some degree or another but you always take it to another level.

Thank you for doing the writeup on Bobby that I asked for.

I just wanted to let you know my appreciation for all the hard work you do.

Have a Great evening!

[BirdWatcher]

Originally Posted by Palaaemon

Bird,

Once again you out do yourself! That's what I love about what you do. Your presentation is superb, the amount of detail is amazing and you go above and beyond. I know you do all this because you have a passion and love to research and explore your creation to not only record history but also to find all the interesting information that you and others like me are interested in knowing. I believe most if not all OOTPers do this to some degree or another but you always take it to another level.

Thank you for doing the writeup on Bobby that I asked for.

I just wanted to let you know my appreciation for all the hard work you do.

Have a Great evening!

Thanks Palaaemon for your kind words.

The truth is I could write books about the WPK- I am that invested in it and that immersed in its history and present day. I do sort of write books about it, mostly in my mind, but then sometimes some of that spills out here.

I'm never quite sure how interesting some of the nooks and crannies that my brain takes me to with this league are to other people, plus it is hard for any of it to be as meaningful to people who don't know the league and its players the way I do.

But I do try to offer small glimpses here and I'm glad to know that at least one other person does find value in that.

[BirdWatcher]

In the midst of a challenging season, and after having suffered two tough losses on the road against division rival San Francisco (the first an extra inning loss and the second a game in which the Brewers relinquished the lead twice), the Denver Brewers got a soul-satisfying win in the final game of the three game series at Bank of the West Ballpark, winning 17-4. (This was the game of August 7th, 1985.)



Two Brewers players compiled 5 hits each in the game, led by the Player of the Game, Javier Hernandez (.356/.425/.559 in 135 PA), whose 5 for 5 day included 2 doubles, a triple, a walk, 2 runs scored, and 6 driven in. Hernandez is one of the revelations of this season, having been the Brewers 11th round draft pick in 1982 out of East Tennessee State. The 26-year old late bloomer wasn't a particularly good collegiate hitter but really took it to another level in pro ball as he has been excellent at pretty much every stop along the way in his ascension through the Brewers system. He profiles as being quite similar to Val Guzman, with even greater speed and running skills than Guzman at his peak, but a bit less range in the outfield. (Although Hernandez has been playing quite a bit of center field for the Brewers this season, he is really best used in left field.) He likely won't have quite as much over-the-fence power as Guzman but might have a better overall hit tool and makes good use of his speed with an advanced eye.



Also collecting 5 base knocks in this one was first-year Brewer second baseman Justin Banks (.317/.337/.490), who came to the club in an off-season trade last winter with Oklahoma City (that sent Russell Fleming to the Diamond Kings). Banks has had a fine campaign and is on pace for a 4.5 WAR season. Like Hernandez, he is considered one of the harder workers on the club.



It's also only fitting that in probably the best victory of the season for the Brewers thus far, Val Guzman (.306/.395/.574) hit another home run, his team-best 18th. And that Austin Bond (13-4, 2.71, 1.19 WHIP) go the win, continuing to be by far the most successful member of a very disappointing and under-achieving starting rotation. (The Brewers continue to be 12th in starting pitcher ERA with a collective 4.76, while Bond is 5th in the MGL in ERA.)




The Brewers are now 10 games behind the Velocity in 3rd place in the MGL West (just 1 game behind Los Angeles).

[BirdWatcher]

So, having looked for comparable MLB players to Bobby Erbakan, the best match I have found yet is Felipe Alou, with a Similarity Score of 901.

(To back up a bit, I'm not sure how well the Similarity Scores I am developing compare with those in OOTP as I can't be sure we are using the exact same methodology. Plus, as these are not meant to be precise measures, I do use some judgement in terms of the positional difference points in the system, not just plugging in the positional number for the players dominant position, but when the player had significant time at different positions- as Bobby did at first base and second base- I try to split the difference, roughly, not with precision. But I think these are good enough to get us well into the right ballpark in terms of MLB comps.)

Let's look at the top 10 scores in terms of comparable MLB players to Bobby Erbakan:

1- Felipe Alou, 901
2- Cesar Cedeno, 883
2- Kirby Puckett, 883
4- Jeff Conine, 869
5- Wally Joyner, 868
6- Travis Fryman, 866
7- Gus Bell, 858
8- Don Mattingly, 848
9- Richie Hebner, 843
10- Buddy Bell, 842
10- Tony Oliva, 842


It is interesting that the top 4 comps for Bobby in MLB history (that I have identified thus far), and 6 of the top 12, were primarily outfielders. Then again, Bobby was originally drafted as an outfielder even though he has spent the vast majority of his big league career in the infield (he did play 15 games in left field and even 7 in center field).
The same trend of course was also present in his top WPK comparables list, and without having run the numbers my eye test tells me that players like Alou, Cedeno, Puckett, Gus Bell, and Oliva are pretty similar to WPK players like Danny Sanchez, Jason Janes (very Puckett-like), Ricky Salinas, Jose Gutierrez, and Antonio Sosa.

Also interesting that two members of the Bell family are on the list. And I would say that Buddy Bell is a pretty good comp for Trevor Leach, who had a Similarity Score with Bobby that is nearly the same as Bell's. (Travis Fryman maybe a slightly lesser version of this type, as is perhaps Richie Hebner.)

In some ways, Wally Joyner feels like the most natural comp here for Bobby. Although Joyner did not win the Gold Gloves at first base that Erbakan did he does feel like a mostly similar type first baseman. He wasn't the base stealer Bobby has been but their home run and RBI totals are nearly identical (actually, at this stage, Bobby is just 1 RBI behind Joyner) and their career batting averages are also nearly identical. Joyner walked more and struck out more than Bobby, but some of that can certainly be accounted for by the difference in league statistical environment (Joyner's MLB career started in 1986, so there may end up being just a slight overlap in terms of the years that they played).
Don Mattingly is a pretty comp too, and his differences are at least in some measure because he had a shorter career than Bobby. He does, however, match up well in terms of the Gold Glove first base play. Mattingly had the higher batting average and a handful more homers (in slightly more than a 1,000 fewer plate appearances!), and far fewer stolen bases than Bobby.

As for Alou, he played nearly the same number of games as Bobby and was very close in terms of at-bats and hits (2,101 to Bobby's 2,166). They have nearly identical home run totals (206 for Alou, 209 for Bobby), are very close in strikeouts (706, Alou, 754, Bobby), and batting average (.286 for Alou, .293 for Bobby- and Alou spent more of his career in statistical environments that favored pitchers than Bobby did). Bobby did score a significant higher amount of runs (1,047 to Alou's 985) and drove in quite a few more runs (1,105 to Alou's 852), but again the offensive environments they played in have quite a bit to do with this. Alou finished his career with 42.2 WAR and Bobby is sitting on 58.8, so it could be argued that Bobby has been the considerably better player of the two.

A small handful of other somewhat comparable MLB players:
Ray Durham, 822
Mike Lowell, 812
Shin-Soo Choo, 809
Evan Longoria, 807
Brady Anderson, 805
Bobby Grich, 802
Jay Bell, 801 (another Bell, but this time an unrelated one)
Al Oliver, 795

[BirdWatcher]

Willie Ramirez, one of the small handful of very talented young Denver relievers (a few in the Denver bullpen and more on the way in the minor league system), achieved an unusual distinction the other day when he struck out 4 batters in the 9th inning of Denver's 8-4 victory over St. Louis.
Ramirez had entered in the bottom of the 8th inning and gave up a single to the first hitter he faced but the inning ended when right fielder Joe McPhillips threw out the base runner trying to score on the play (Joe's second outfield assist of the game, both at home plate).
Ramirez then struck out the first batter of the 9th but catcher Joe Sandwell couldn't corral the last pitch which was ruled a wild pitch and the runner made it to first base safely. The 24-year old power pitcher wasn't fazed as he then proceeded to strike out the next 3 batters as well (all swinging!) for the rare 4 K inning.



And speaking of young Brewers on fire, rookie outfielder Javier Hernandez took Player of the Week honors in the MGL this past week for his fine play. Not a bad big league start for an 11th round (268th overall) pick!

[BirdWatcher]

This is pretty much it:





Austin Bond is throwing a 2-hit shutout going into the 9th inning against Phoenix. His team has only managed to give him 1 run at home and that on a Joe McPhillips solo homer in the 7th inning.
Bond gets the first batter to groundout to second base, then walks the next batter. The Denver manager (that would be me) decides to leave Bond in to face Phoenix first baseman Carlos Robles. A good hitter, not a great hitter. Of course, Robles triples to tie the game at 1 apiece.
Bond is done and Dan Folk, who enters the game with an ERA of 0.00 over the course of 18 games out of the bullpen (he missed time earlier in the season with a sprained ankle) comes in. Folk is the best reliever on the team and the guy most likely to get strikeouts when needed. He works former Brewer Victor Oseguera to a 2-2 count, then Oseguera singles in Robles. Luis Olivez, the 1983 MGL MVP, follows with another single and then power-hitting third baseman Jason Puglisi doubles. Because of course this would be the day that Folk would implode. Naturally light-hitting great glove shortstop John Rains then triples (Oseguera had thankfully been thrown out trying to advance to third on Olivez single, so that keep one run off the board).

Austin Bond, having thrown his 20th Quality Starts in his 23 starts this season, suffers the loss when his team, who are now 3rd in runs scored in the MGL after being 1st much of the season, can't mount any sort of run support for him and the Brewers bullpen, 2nd in the MGL in ERA, falls apart when it counts most.

Chris Romines (.366/.399/.530) went 2 for 4 and Javier Hernandez (.353/.427/.553) contributed a 2 for 3, 1 walk, 1 stolen base day because of course the Brewers 7th round pick of 1981 and 11th round pick of 1982 are actually getting the job done in 1985.

With the loss the Brewers sit at .500, tied with Phoenix for 3rd in the MGL West. And, from the looks of it, likely destined to fall behind Phoenix before the end of this season.

This is the 1985 Denver Brewers in a nutshell.
Oy vey!

[BirdWatcher]

Chris Romines, the Brewers 25-year old rookie first baseman, is measured as having above average speed, if only a bit above average. And while he isn't expected to be a base stealer (he has stolen 1 base this season and also been caught trying once), he is considered a decent base runner (the Brewers scouting staff considers him a 6 out of 10 in base running, a bit better than the OSA perception).



But not only has Romines seemed to collect an inordinate amount of infield hits this season, but in yesterday's 11-2 victory over Montreal he got the scoring started in the 1st inning when he hit a ball into the left-center gap to drive in Marty Crumbley (.363/.412/.565 in 136 PA's) and then just kept running, ending up with an inside-the-park-homer, the first of the season for the Brewers.
Romines in fact sparked the Brewers to the huge victory, which broke a 6-game losing streak, by going 4 for 5 in the game, collecting 2 doubles to improve his league-leading total to 34, hitting a single, driving in 4 runs while scoring 3.






To say that Romines is not the likeliest of Brewers to get an inside-the-park job is a bit of an understatement, given that this team includes gap-hitting speedsters like Javier Hernandez, Val Guzman, Justin Banks, and even the 36-year old Joe McPhillips, who remains very fast. Not that he is the least likely, either. In fact, he has a respectable UBR of 2.1 and BsR of 1.6 this season. And he shows some quickness in the field also with a ZR of 2.2. He has also hit 7 triples this season.

When you put it all together the big picture is that the unheralded semi-prospect is on pace for a 5.5 WAR season and is clearly one of the best stories in a disappointing 1985 Brewers season.


Speaking of dreadful seasons, the woeful Milwaukee Cadets are the first team eliminated from post-season contention, a chronic condition for that team.

[BirdWatcher]

Then again, who needs pitching when you can just pummel the opposition into submission with offense.







Justin Banks (.313/.332/.469), who is in his first year with the Brewers having come over in a trade which sent Russell Fleming to the Oklahoma City Diamond Kings in the off-season, is having a fine season and is on pace for 4.0 WAR, led the way in this one. Fellow first year infielder Ryan Campbell, who the Brewers acquired from San Antonio when they sent top pitching prospect Mike Costa (who is 9-13 with a 5.91 ERA) to the Keys, also was a key contributor. Campbell (.328/.424/.493) got off to a disappointing start, and has committed 25 errors at third base with a -1.7 ZR, but has been picking things up offensively since the All-Star break and is on pace for a 5.8 WAR season. He is still underachieving in terms of the power bat, considering he is our primary clean-up hitter and was expected to be the best home run hitter on the club. But with his 6 RBI in yesterday's win he is second best on the team in that category, 1 behind the surprising star Chris Romines.
The Brewers did bring up first base prospect Gene "Basher" Brasher recently and Brasher profiles as the best power hitter on the club now, though he has yet to collect his first big league dinger. He will likely be the primary backup for Romines next season and provide a power right-handed bat off the bench (the feeling is that team Captain Ben Flynn likely won't be back to fulfill that role next season).

Both Banks and Campbell recently signed 1-year extensions to return to the Brewers next season. For Banks it was his last year of arbitration and he signed for a steep $940 K deal. With several strong second base prospects in the Brewers system (one of them, Marty Crumbley is having a great season with the big league club in limited action and looks like a next-level contact hitter), it is expected that next season might be Banks last in a Brewers uniform but he certainly earned a return and can help bridge to the next starter at the position.
Campbell, meanwhile, still has 2 years of arbitration eligibility and he signed to a very modest $472 K contract for 1986. The 30-year old star third baseman will likely remain with the team at least for a few more seasons with top third base prospect Jeremy Beeson (another potential elite contact hitter, like Crumbley) likely still a few years away from being ready to take over.


Speaking of offensive outbursts and impressive hitting, Washington's rookie left fielder/first baseman (actually, he has mostly played first but he also has played a bit this season at second base, third base, shortstop, left field, and center field!) Donovan Hickson had a 4-homer day yesterday in the midst of what may end up being an MVP season for the 25-year old power/speed threat. Hickson is on pace for an 8.2 WAR season, as he has already hit 35 home runs, driven in 95 runs, walked 99 times, stolen 21 bases (while being caught 5 times), while providing adequate defense at multiple positions. (Ultimately, he is likely a first baseman, but an elite one!) His contact hitting tool is considered great and he will strike out a ton, but he walks even more, and hits the ball so hard and when combined with his plus speed and plus plus base stealing and base running savvy, it isn't likely to hold him back from being one of the premiere players in the game. Oh, and he's a flyball hitter with the best home run power bat in the game this side of one-dimensional slugger Toby Noguchi. And he's a very hard worker and projects as being durable. Multiple MVP's might be expected for this kid in the future and he's just another reason that the big-budget and talented Washington Night Train might be building a dynasty over in the SJL East.



Oh, and this is just the 3rd time a player has hit 4 homers in a single game. The first one was by Denver Brewer second baseman Tanner Yurek on May 4th of 1965 (Yurek also had a 3-homer game in 1967), and the other was Boston's first baseman Kyle Adams who did this on September 13th of 1982.

[BirdWatcher]

After falling into 4th place mid-month the Denver Brewers are in the midst of a resurgence at the end of the month of August, having now won 5 straight, including a sweep of the Los Angeles Spinners to move ahead of L.A. and back into 2nd place.


Game 1 was another slug fest with top pitching prospect Stephen Brooks getting knocked around for 4 2/3rds innings, giving up 8 runs (4 earned) on 7 hits while also walking 6 batters and uncorking a pair of wild pitches. (Brooks earned a demotion to AAA Chester to get his head clear and work on his control after this one.) But his team took him off the hook with more offensive firepower, second baseman Justin Banks once again leading the way, driving in 5 runs with a 2 for 4 day, hitting his 29th double of the season. The excellent Val Guzman (.304/.388/.568) went 3 for 5 with 3 runs scored and collected his 27th double and 5th triple of the season. Veteran left-handed reliever, and fan favorite, Rand Pinti picked up the win to improve to 4-2 on the season with a 2.91 ERA, giving up 1 run on 3 hits over the course of 2 1/3rd innings pitched. Dan "Hero" Folk (get it, folk hero), picked up his 12th save in 13 tries this season, striking out the last 2 batters of the game after giving up a 1-out single.



In game 2, Austin Bond continued his fine season, lasting 7 innings and giving up just 1 run on 7 hits. Bond improves to 14-6 with a 2.58 ERA, 4th best in the MGL, and a 1.16 WHIP, 5th best. His 21 Quality Starts is also 4th best in the MGL. Catcher Willie Ortega, who returned from an extended stint on the IL recently, went 2 for 3 with 3 RBI in the game, hitting his 3rd double of the season. It might not be coincidental that the Brewers have been playing better since the return of the excellent defensive backstop and fan favorite Ortega. Veteran right fielder Joe McPhillips (.282/.366/.502) also had a fine game, going 2 for 4 with 2 runs scored and picking up his 8th stolen base of the season.



The Brewers got the sweep with an easy 7-1 game 3 victory, with young good stuff, poor control starting pitcher Alex Canty pitching the best game of his big league career thus far (it was his 7th start for the Brewers, and in his WPK career). Canty lasted 8 innings, giving up just the 1 run on 5 hits while striking out 6 and walking 3. He earns himself at least another start as he vies with Stephen Brooks, Eric Fehrenbacher, and Jose Corpeno for a spot in the rotation next season. Like Brooks and Fehrenbacher, Canty was a 1st round draft pick (3rd overall) but unlike these other two he was not drafted by the Brewers but rather by Jacksonville, back in the 1979 draft. He joined the Brewers organization last season in a trade that sent third baseman Craig Hoover to the Charlotte Sting. (He has changed organizations a few times since originally being drafted by the Wolf Pack.) Canty has some of the best stuff among Denver starters but poor control and only roughly average movement and he is much older (28) than the pitchers he is competing against and might have best success in the bullpen. Veteran outfielder Antonio Acuna, not happy with the limited playing time he is receiving (he is a 3-time MGL MVP, so it is hard to blame him- then again, his 0.5 WAR doesn't cry out for more playing time), paced the offense in this one with a 2 for 4, 2 RBI game in which he hit his 11th homer of the season as well as hit 10th double. And young first baseman Gene "Basher" Brasher, who has prodigious power potential (he hit 29 bombs last year in AA over 520 plate appearances), hit his 1st big league home run in this one and drove in 2 runs.



With 3 games left in August, the Brewers are now sitting 7 1/2 games behind the first place San Francisco Velocity, who are 3-7 in their last 10 games.

[BirdWatcher]

So as I start thinking forward to not only the 1986 WPK season but also to OOTP23, I am wondering if perhaps, better late than never, I should move my reporting on the Brewers and the WPK to the Dynasty Reports subfolder instead of this Fictional Simulations folder?

I guess I've resisted moving this over there for a number of reasons over the years, maybe the biggest being my resistance to calling this a "dynasty" even if I do get the concept behind the term. And I wanted to help keep the Fictional Simulations subfolder active. I also feel like my humble little vanilla fictional save will get lost with all of the elaborate and long-standing creative leagues that have threads there.
But, on the other hand, the longer I report on the WPK, even if I don't do so in such great detail now as I used to, the more scattered all of these threads about the WPK become. And since the Dynasty Reports subfolder threads migrate with new versions subfolders creation and the Fictional Simulations subfolder doesn't, maybe it's time to move over there and simplify things a bit. And maybe that is where the WPK belongs anyway.

I would love at least a few of you to give me some feedback on this and let me know if you have a preference or ideas. I'm thinking that now might be a good time to get things started there so that I don't have to create a new thread when the WPK switches over to OOTP23 later.

Thanks.

[BirdWatcher]

As we enter the final month of the 1985 regular season, let's take a look at the current standings in the WPK:




It's an exciting time to be a Chicago Fire fan. The team, which entered the league as an expansion club in 1975, appears to be well on their way to the first postseason in franchise history and have the best record in the WPK. They are 1st in runs scored and 1st in runs against in the SJL. They don't hit a lot home runs (11th) and aren't a great base running team (11th, +11.8), but in most aspects of the game they are near or at the top of the league statistically. Their 24-year old shortstop Pat Thompson is a strong MVP candidate (likely the primary competitor for Washington's Donovan Hickson). They have a talented pitching rotation and 21-year old rookie Bill Johnson looks like a future Harris/Lee award winner. The Fire have arrived.
Their expansion mate, the Houston Cavaliers, are also on the way up, but are a bit behind Chicago still. They also have a potential MVP middle infielder in 24-year old Wilfredo Garcia, who is just an average defender but one of the very best hitters in the game. Unlike Chicago though, Houston has a weak pitching staff.
Similar story with the recently dominant San Antonio Keys, who still have a fearsome lineup but quite poor pitching. Veteran sluggers John Freeman and Mike Shervey remain scary in the middle of the lineup, with 26 and 21 home runs respectively and batting averages over .300 for both.
El Paso is on the way down but 33-year old team captain and leftfielder Jose Gutierrez remains a terrific player.
Seattle is Seattle and Milwaukee is abysmal (though they do have a ROY candidate in 21-year old right fielder Kusumua Kartosuwiryo).

The Washington Night Train continue to be the class of the SJL East, led by MVP candidate Donovan Hickson and Harris/Lee candidate Rich Freeman (more below about each). Washington's rotation isn't deep but they have a stacked lineup, solid defense, and they are a great on the bases. They have the worst bullpen, by ERA, in the SJL, so that is something to watch for in the post-season. (Because, let's face it, it will be Chicago and Washington in the post-season.)
Philly has surprisingly hung within striking distance much of the season. Most of the credit goes to a deep pitching staff and fine bullpen. But of course the perennially underrated veteran centerfielder (and fan favorite) Mike Florack is having another good season, on pace for 7.0 WAR.
Pittsburgh is pretty middle of the road in most categories, and while they are getting very fine seasons from their superstar hitters, Matt Van der Heyden and Nick Johnson, both are now in their 30's (and Van der Heyden is very injury prone) and both are on pace for 3.5 WAR seasons. Good for most players, but way below career averages for these two superstars.
In Columbus all eyes are on 38-year old third baseman Chris Tobin, who is now 22 hits shy of 3,000 for his career. It wasn't that many seasons ago when it looked like Tobin was in pretty steep decline, as a shortstop who could no longer field the position adequately. Having won his 2nd league MVP award in 1977, he then put up 1.5 and 1.7 WAR seasons in '78 and '79. But a switch to third base in his one season in Milwaukee, having been traded away from Baltimore, re-energized his career and he put up 5.8 WAR in 1980 which he then parlayed into a 3-year deal with Boston, where he had 6.9, 5.0, and 6.1 WAR seasons. This past offseason Columbus signed him to a 3-year deal as a free agent, and he is on pace for 6.5 WAR this year, so that has worked out so far. Plus he gives the fans something to follow, with the team being pretty bad. At one point Tobin seemed like a borderline future Hall of Famer. Now the only question is how close to 100% he gets on his first HOF ballot. He's not the nicest, most likeable guy in WPK history (selfish, "too self-important") but he's become one of the greatest, of that there can be no doubt.
Boston has 28-year old first baseman Kyle Adams, on pace for 30 homer season with 4.8 WAR and hitting .320. He's also a 3-time Gold Glover. After that it is pretty much ho-hum in beantown.
Jacksonville's 22-year old right-handed starting pitcher David Parker is worth watching and should be one of the best in the business soon. Really, he's 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA on a last place team, so you might say he already is. Jacksonville has had some significant injuries to key players so with a little luck they could have been closer to being a .500 team, as they have allowed the 3rd fewest runs in the SJL.

The San Francisco Velocity haven't been a great team since July 1st (they went 9-16 in July but were a bit better in August at 16-13), so they haven't completely wrapped things up in the MLG West, but it isn't like their main competitors (Denver and Los Angeles) have shown any great ability to overtake them. Jon Harrington is the odds on favorite for the Harris/Lee award (it would be his 3rd straight).
More about Denver in another post.
Los Angeles has some decent young pitchers to watch for but their pitching overall has been mediocre, while the offense is 3rd best in the MGL in runs scored and first in batting WAR. 26-year old David Tockstein is an MVP candidate, but overall their record pretty well reflects their talent.
Phoenix, who play in the most extreme hitters park in the game, don't have a great offense and do have some very talented young pitchers. It's a combination that so far has led to a lot of .500 level play.
Portland, who admittedly play in a much more pitcher friendly home park, have good pitching and very little offense. They are second in home runs in the MGL though, with 6 players in double digits in this category, led by veteran first baseman Will Masiello, who has hit 23.
St. Louis 22-year old center fielder David Cabreja, the 5th overall pick in the 1983 draft, is a bright spot for this 1980 expansion club. And they have a few good young pitchers (see Greg Grieve below) but there isn't yet much to be excited about in the Gateway City.

As has been reported here previously, a strong argument could be made that the best and deepest rotation in the game belongs to the Oklahoma City Diamond Kings. When they made a trade just before the deadline this year to get Ruben Ramirez from Portland that just made it all that much deeper. With great pitching and excellent defense, the Diamond Kings make the most of a not very exciting offensive lineup. Their MVP candidate shortstop Antonio Briones has been out since August 3rd with a sprained ankle and isn't expected back until around the final week of the regular season, but his return could certainly boost their post-season look.
The Baltimore Lords, as has been the case for most of their existence, score a lot of runs and give up a ton as well. They are getting an excellent season from staff ace, and 1981 Harris/Lee award winner, Sako Zakian (15-9, 2.63) but beyond that they don't have much pitching. Their Cuban rookie sensation right fielder Alex Afanador provides plenty of punch (33 homers) in the middle of a strong lineup. But I have a hard time seeing them catching the more talented and balanced Diamond Kings.
Detroit's offense is fairly tepid but their pitching isn't bad. 29-year old Ryan Rystrom, once a top prospect, is having a breakout season after several disappointing big league campaigns, and is second in ERA in the MGL with 2.46 (Jon Harrington leads with a tiny 2.16) and has gone 11-4 this season. Their pitching would likely be even better if their overall defense wasn't so poor (-30.0 ZR).
Brooklyn is even worse defensively (-32.8 ZR), and their rotation is getting old and mediocre at best. Their closer Michael Tucker, at age 25, is one of the best in the business. But there is very little else to get excited about with this club.
Charlotte is a good base running club and not a bad defensive one. Other than that, they pretty much suck. Former Brewer Eric Hammock is having a good season in the middle of the lineup, hitting .341/.407/.608 with 28 homers and is an MVP candidate (on pace for 6.8 WAR). And that's about it for the Sting.
And the lowly Montreal Royals. They are last in most offensive categories (although 5th in home runs). Oh, and then they are also last in most pitching categories, and near the bottom defensively. They just aren't very good. Enough said.


A quick look at monthly individual award winners:








As for Rookies of the Month, it probably shouldn't be surprising that Javier Hernandez won that honor in the MGL as well. While Milwaukee's Kusuma Kartosuwiryo took the honor in the SJL.

[Palaaemon]

Bird,

I believe you have already made up your mind and are just looking for whether this thought process is the correct one. It absolutely is! Everything you stated is spot on. I would move to the other forum once 23 comes out and you are able to upgrade to that AND start a new season. Start fresh. I don't know how long you want to wait (how many patches in) before you make the move to 23, but I definitely wouldn't get into a rush.

Your "humble little vanilla fictional save" that you resist calling a "dynasty" is FAR from vanilla and is definitely a dynasty. In the WPK you have created so much depth and breadth, detail and longevity. Those features and qualities are the definition of an "elaborate, creative and long-standing dynasty". The WPK is an excellent dynasty, definitely portrayed in a different format than others for the most part. Which is a great thing because variation is the spice that pleases. So please accept and embrace what you have created. If you wish to be humble about it so be it, but call it what it is!

You should not feel compelled to keep a subfolder alive that will be there whether you are there or not. Others will continue to post there if they wish or not and and new dynasty posters may join them in the future if they choose. Whether you post in the Fictional Simulations folder or not it will remain there, unless for some reason the powers that be decide to make a change, and that could be for many reasons.

As far as all the WPK threads being scattered, I wouldn't be worried about that. They are all organized in your signature section so if someone finds the most recent version of WPK in the Dynasty reports subfolder and they want to find the beginning or any/all of them, they can search for your profile and get them.

I hope this helps you.

Have a Great night!

[BirdWatcher]

Originally Posted by Palaaemon

Bird,

I believe you have already made up your mind and are just looking for whether this thought process is the correct one. It absolutely is! Everything you stated is spot on. I would move to the other forum once 23 comes out and you are able to upgrade to that AND start a new season. Start fresh. I don't know how long you want to wait (how many patches in) before you make the move to 23, but I definitely wouldn't get into a rush.

Your "humble little vanilla fictional save" that you resist calling a "dynasty" is FAR from vanilla and is definitely a dynasty. In the WPK you have created so much depth and breadth, detail and longevity. Those features and qualities are the definition of an "elaborate, creative and long-standing dynasty". The WPK is an excellent dynasty, definitely portrayed in a different format than others for the most part. Which is a great thing because variation is the spice that pleases. So please accept and embrace what you have created. If you wish to be humble about it so be it, but call it what it is!

You should not feel compelled to keep a subfolder alive that will be there whether you are there or not. Others will continue to post there if they wish or not and and new dynasty posters may join them in the future if they choose. Whether you post in the Fictional Simulations folder or not it will remain there, unless for some reason the powers that be decide to make a change, and that could be for many reasons.

As far as all the WPK threads being scattered, I wouldn't be worried about that. They are all organized in your signature section so if someone finds the most recent version of WPK in the Dynasty reports subfolder and they want to find the beginning or any/all of them, they can search for your profile and get them.

I hope this helps you.

Have a Great night!

Thanks again, as always, Palaaemon.
I do really appreciate this input and everything you say here makes perfect sense to me.

[BirdWatcher]

Entering the final month of the 1985 regular season, here are some of the individual stats leaders in the SJL.
We'll start with hitters:






As you can see, 28-year old Pittsburgh first baseman Toby Noguchi is once again the best home run hitter in the game, and is on pace for another 50 homer season (he led the league with 51 in 1983, but fell to 31 last season). He is also on pace to equal the single season record, set by Mike Shervey of San Antonio in 1983, of RBI, which is 161. But Noguchi doesn't do much else well, other than strike out at prodigious rates (he has led the league in K's the past two years with 186 and 190 and already has 192 this season). At 6'4" he has actually become quite a good defensive first baseman (he has a 7.2 ZR this season) and doesn't commit many errors. But he's slow, a very poor contact hitter (.226/.299/.516 slash line), and is only on pace for 3.8 WAR even with near record power and run producing totals.
Pat Thompson, the Chicago Fire's tremendous 24-year old shortstop, is fighting off a challenge from 30-year old Nick Johnson, who has 3 batting titles already, for best batting average in the SJL. Thompson is also battling with Washington's Donovan Hickson for the highest WAR in the league and they are the two most likely frontrunners for the SJL MVP award. A pair of often over-looked veteran center fielders- Mike Florack of Philly and Rick Downey of Washington- are also potential MVP candidates. And young Houston second baseman Wilfredo Garcia will likely be a bit further down in the voting for MVP, but don't be surprised if this young elite hitting middle infielder eventually wins at least a few batting titles and one or two MVP awards. And then there is 38-year old Chris Tobin, 22 hits away from 3,000 and having another MVP caliber year, on pace for 6.5 WAR, hitting .303/.370/.524 with 27 home runs.

But for now, I think it is safe to say that coming down the stretch Washington's multi-positional youngster Donovan Hickson is the favorite for both Rookie of the Year and the SJL MVP award.

Turning to pitching leaders:




It looks like Washington has a pretty good chance to clean up during awards season. Though for the Night Train, if this doesn't come following a Kinsella Classic Series championship celebration, it will be mere consolation prize.
Rich Freeman, at age 24, is having a breakout season. The extreme groundballer with a great curveball and excellent stamina is leading the SJL in many pitching categories, including a significant lead in complete games (14), WAR (7.3) and rWAR (8.9), and the old traditional glory categories, wins (16) and ERA (2.28). Jacksonville's 22-year old David Parker is also impressing at a young age and watch for this hard-throwing, groundball-inducing righty to be a Harris/Lee award contender for years to come. The veteran likely future Hall of Fame lefthander, Luis Ramirez, is also having a fine season, and while he almost surely won't earn his 3rd Harris/Lee he should be a contender in the voting. And don't discount Chicago's duo of Joe Sykes and Mike Low too much just because they pitch their home games in a great pitchers park. Sykes admittedly has been much better at home (10-1, 1.87) than on the road (4-3, 3.88) but Low has gone 9-4 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, which is quite respectable, if not as good as his home ERA and WHIP of 2.96 and 0.91 respectively. On the other hand, his home record is just 4-7, so the majority of his wins have come away from Sears Stadium.

Ultimately it looks like Rich Freeman is the most likely Harris/Lee award winner in the SJL.

[BirdWatcher]

On now to the MGL, where our Denver Brewers play.

Starting with batters:





I think it's fair to say, especially in terms of young elite players, that the balance of power has been shifting pretty heavily to the SJL for the past few years. You can see it here in the WAR leaders totals in the MGL. And no offense to former Brewer Eric Hammock- he's a good ballplayer having a strong season- but when that is the name at the top of the WAR list, talent might a bit thin in your league. Rookie Baltimore right fielder Alex Afanador, who found himself under contract with the independent league Albuquerque Airmen (of the Iowa Baseball Confederacy) as a free-agent out of Cuba, saw his contract get bought out by Baltimore and quickly became the #7 prospect in the WPK. He is also now the top candidate for Rookie of the Year but also should be an MGL MVP contender. San Francisco's 23-year old second baseman Seth Garone looks like he will hold on to win the batting title- and likely with the best batting average in all of the WPK among qualifiers- and is also a strong MVP candidate. In addition to his great contact, line-drive bat, he profiles as a fine defender (but has a -1.3 ZR in this first full season of his career) and is already considered the team captain of a team that has been in need of better leadership to counterbalance several disruptive players.
Oklahoma City's brilliant defensive third baseman Antonio Briones, who won a Gold Glove award at shortstop in 1983, looked to be headed towards his first MVP award when he was felled by a knee injury in very early August and since he won't be back in action until the very end of the season, there go his chances this year.
It appears that the MGL MVP is still very much up for grabs and if one of the handful of contenders (even our own Ryan Campbell) has a torrid stretch run they could move into a dominant position.

Let's look at pitchers:




For much of the season it appeared that the reigning two-time in a row Harris/Lee award winner Jon Harrington of the San Francisco Velocity would surely win his 3rd straight.
But 24-year old Matt Greene of that vaunted Oklahoma City starting rotation is trying to make a case otherwise. And if he doesn't prevail this season, don't be surprised if before long he has a few of these awards in his trophy case. Sako Zakian, the 34-year old veteran ace of the Baltimore Lords rotation, did win a Harris/Lee back in 1981 and he'll be a contender this year also, though not likely at the top of the voting. And of course, the Brewers lefty over-achiever Austin Bond should get some votes too.
I'd still put my money on Harrington but this should be a tight race.