Changeup Development Fix?

Zephaerus · 03-04-2021, 01:04 AM

To those of you who don't know, OOTP has a notorious developmental idiosyncrasy for changeups. When you draft a high schooler with a Changeup sitting at 20/80, there's about a 25% chance that pitch never goes anywhere, and another 25% chance that it will only dev very slightly up before getting stuck and never going further. This is a lower development rate compared to every other pitch in the game.

I know I've read somewhere that the Changeup is often the make-or-break pitch for actual MLB starters, and that at least its importance for defining whether or not a guy can become a starter is a realistic reflection of reality. But I don't think there's any wisdom out there that says a changeup is the hardest pitch to develop - the most I've seen anyone say is that a bad changeup is just worthless. I'm not sure how well a 20/80 changeup that says that way until a guy retires reflects having a bad changeup, when most other ratings in the game generally get reached with decent consistency or the potentials at least fall down to earth once they're not reached.

On top of that, there are also players who are scouted at 20/20 on their change, and then one day it'll simply develop overnight, their changeup will become 80/80, and if the rest of their ratings are alright, they can become one of the best pitchers in the league on the spot. I've been in online leagues for a while, and this phenomenon feels like it happens once or twice a season with uncanny regularity.

IMO, the way potential can actively mislead you leads to a funny situation in the game where it's usually better to try finding guys who have a 20/20 change instead of a 20/80 change, and that seems a little broken to me. Are there any plans to fix this in OOTP 22 or any future version of OOTP?

Sweed · 03-04-2021, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zephaerus

To those of you who don't know, OOTP has a notorious developmental idiosyncrasy for changeups. When you draft a high schooler with a Changeup sitting at 20/80, there's about a 25% chance that pitch never goes anywhere, and another 25% chance that it will only dev very slightly up before getting stuck and never going further. This is a lower development rate compared to every other pitch in the game.

I know I've read somewhere that the Changeup is often the make-or-break pitch for actual MLB starters, and that at least its importance for defining whether or not a guy can become a starter is a realistic reflection of reality. But I don't think there's any wisdom out there that says a changeup is the hardest pitch to develop - the most I've seen anyone say is that a bad changeup is just worthless. I'm not sure how well a 20/80 changeup that says that way until a guy retires reflects having a bad changeup, when most other ratings in the game generally get reached with decent consistency or the potentials at least fall down to earth once they're not reached.

On top of that, there are also players who are scouted at 20/20 on their change, and then one day it'll simply develop overnight, their changeup will become 80/80, and if the rest of their ratings are alright, they can become one of the best pitchers in the league on the spot. I've been in online leagues for a while, and this phenomenon feels like it happens once or twice a season with uncanny regularity.

IMO, the way potential can actively mislead you leads to a funny situation in the game where it's usually better to try finding guys who have a 20/20 change instead of a 20/80 change, and that seems a little broken to me. Are there any plans to fix this in OOTP 22 or any future version of OOTP?

Not aware of this "issue" or if it really is an issue or a design decision to control the number of starters. If the 20/20 vs. 20/80 developing or not is a "normal" occurrence than I'd agree that does look funny (possible bug they are unaware of) and should be looked into.

Just to clarify.... are you only wanting the bolded "fixed" so a 20/80 will have a better chance to develop over the 20/20? IOW the number of pitchers that develop their changeup stays the same but this single issue is changed.

or...

Are you saying all pitchers should have a better chance to develop their changeup, as well as fixing the "20/80 vs. 20/20" pitchers? If it's this than the game is going to have too many SP developing unless, for balance, they are taken away from some other avenue of development. Don't know if that is good or bad but something that crosses my mind.

As to whether the change is hard or not to develop in real life I have no idea. Though I find it hard to believe virtually every pitcher hasn't tried to develop one and yet only a certain % ever get one good enough to throw in a game. I have no idea what that % is but with today's online stat sites it's probably not hard to find. That it's used this way in OOTP to control the number of SP doesn't particularly trouble me. If it's shown that this is "wrong" and there is a better way I'm sure Markus and Matt would listen to anyone with data to back their thinking. Of course without developer input we have no idea what they based this on. They may have data that we know nothing about.

Zephaerus · 03-05-2021, 01:12 PM

I'm kind of in the same camp as you in that I don't know if this is a design decision or not, so it's hard to say confidently what the exact fix should be.

Making 20/80 changeups more likely to develop relative to 20/20 changeups would be a reasonable step. You can keep the net # of SPs the same, but remove some of the weird surprises.

Investigating whether or not changeups being the hardest pitch to develop reflects reality would be a solid secondary route. If it's not the way these things usually work, bringing changeup development up to parity with other pitch development would likely be a good change.

treymancini · 03-05-2021, 03:44 PM

I absolutely hope this does NOT get "fixed". In real life, there is usually a general idea around prospects of volatility. One guy might have a high floor and low ceiling, another might have a low floor and a high ceiling. This is known to scouts. This is something that is barely reflected at all in OOTP, the only place it is, is in the changeup development. When you draft a guy with a low changeup but high changeup pot, you know that you are taking a big risk, but that it might pay off as a steal. Likewise, when you see the college pitcher with four pitches but lower potential on them, that's a safer, high floor pick.

jpeters1734 · 03-06-2021, 03:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zephaerus

IMO, the way potential can actively mislead you leads to a funny situation in the game where it's usually better to try finding guys who have a 20/20 change instead of a 20/80 change, and that seems a little broken to me. Are there any plans to fix this in OOTP 22 or any future version of OOTP?

That's complete nonsense, imo. a 20/20 changeup does not have a better chance to develop than a 20/80.

Nersha · 03-06-2021, 09:23 AM

.

TPinrose · 03-06-2021, 11:06 AM

Honestly, it's fine if sometimes frustrating. You know the risks, so you can make the decision.

Sweed · 03-06-2021, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nersha

Changeups have been broken for what 5 or 6 versions now? or more? Good thing we can make a 3D ballpark for a text sim though.

Define broken. If you mean it's too hard to develop a change than you are wrong. Look at MLB pitchers. If it were easy everyone would have a good one to throw.

Game hasn't been a text only sim for what? 5 years now.

03-04-2021, 01:04 AM	#1
Zephaerus Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 20	Changeup Development Fix? To those of you who don't know, OOTP has a notorious developmental idiosyncrasy for changeups. When you draft a high schooler with a Changeup sitting at 20/80, there's about a 25% chance that pitch never goes anywhere, and another 25% chance that it will only dev very slightly up before getting stuck and never going further. This is a lower development rate compared to every other pitch in the game. I know I've read somewhere that the Changeup is often the make-or-break pitch for actual MLB starters, and that at least its importance for defining whether or not a guy can become a starter is a realistic reflection of reality. But I don't think there's any wisdom out there that says a changeup is the hardest pitch to develop - the most I've seen anyone say is that a bad changeup is just worthless. I'm not sure how well a 20/80 changeup that says that way until a guy retires reflects having a bad changeup, when most other ratings in the game generally get reached with decent consistency or the potentials at least fall down to earth once they're not reached. On top of that, there are also players who are scouted at 20/20 on their change, and then one day it'll simply develop overnight, their changeup will become 80/80, and if the rest of their ratings are alright, they can become one of the best pitchers in the league on the spot. I've been in online leagues for a while, and this phenomenon feels like it happens once or twice a season with uncanny regularity. IMO, the way potential can actively mislead you leads to a funny situation in the game where it's usually better to try finding guys who have a 20/20 change instead of a 20/80 change, and that seems a little broken to me. Are there any plans to fix this in OOTP 22 or any future version of OOTP?

03-06-2021, 09:23 AM	#6
Nersha Minors (Double A) Join Date: Nov 2015 Location: Canada Posts: 168	. Last edited by Nersha; 08-19-2022 at 07:19 PM. Reason: I have changed my opinion on this.

03-05-2021, 01:12 PM	#3
Zephaerus Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 20	I'm kind of in the same camp as you in that I don't know if this is a design decision or not, so it's hard to say confidently what the exact fix should be. Making 20/80 changeups more likely to develop relative to 20/20 changeups would be a reasonable step. You can keep the net # of SPs the same, but remove some of the weird surprises. Investigating whether or not changeups being the hardest pitch to develop reflects reality would be a solid secondary route. If it's not the way these things usually work, bringing changeup development up to parity with other pitch development would likely be a good change.

03-05-2021, 03:44 PM	#4
treymancini Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2020 Posts: 251	I absolutely hope this does NOT get "fixed". In real life, there is usually a general idea around prospects of volatility. One guy might have a high floor and low ceiling, another might have a low floor and a high ceiling. This is known to scouts. This is something that is barely reflected at all in OOTP, the only place it is, is in the changeup development. When you draft a guy with a low changeup but high changeup pot, you know that you are taking a big risk, but that it might pay off as a steal. Likewise, when you see the college pitcher with four pitches but lower potential on them, that's a safer, high floor pick.

03-06-2021, 11:06 AM	#7
TPinrose Minors (Double A) Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 199	Honestly, it's fine if sometimes frustrating. You know the risks, so you can make the decision.