Do your teams or players ever lose their home run power?

[ALB123]

I'm GM of the 1992 New York Yankees. It is May 15th and I can't help but think, "What the heck is going on?!" My 3-4-5 hitters are Bernie Williams, Barry Bonds and John Olerud. Since it's still early in the season, I've only played out half of my team's 34 games, the other half are simulated, obviously. On June 1st I will play out 99% of the remaining games in one-pitch mode.

Here are the overall American League team statistics as of May 15, 1992. Everything looks good for my Yankees squad except home runs.



Overall, the team is playing some pretty good baseball as you can see from the current Standings.



As I said, I have simulated 17 games and played out 17 games. I have not witnessed a single home run hit by any of my 3-4-5 hitters. What few home runs they've hit have been under AI control. I know the animations need to be taken with a spoonful of salt and that's fine, but I can't remember the last time I've seen any of my 3-4-5 hitters drive a flyball to the warning track. It's always weak popups to the outfield. Of course, the three are all getting plenty of singles and all three are on pace to hit more doubles than they did last year. Here is an overview of the position players on my Active Roster.



And now, here is the Profile Page for each of my 3-4-5 hitters. I outlined the Projections which will really drive home the point of their lack of home runs so far this year.





You can't see Barry's 1985, 1986 or 1987 seasons. His HR totals for those years were 37, 41 & 51, respectively. Now he's on pace for 14.



As you can see, there is really nothing to complain about regarding the overall performance of my 3-4-5 hitters EXCEPT the lack of home runs.

I know it's only May 15th and there are still 128 games left to be played. Still, with the hitter ratings they have and the fact that all three are left-handed hitters (Williams is a switch-hitter) who play half their games in a stadium with a short RF fence, I have a very hard time accepting that all three of them should be incapable of hitting a few out of the park. You saw the team HR totals of all American League teams up above. No team has the power ratings of my 3-4-5 hitters and I still have a couple of other guys who can poke some out of the park, like Tino Martinez, who hit 16 home runs in 119 games last season. Yet, 3 AL teams have hit double the numbers of dingers of my team with another 3 just a home run or two away from having double my total. Deion Sanders was called up to fill-in for an injured Tony Gwynn who is made of glass. Sanders hit 2 HR in our last game, otherwise it would probably be 6 teams with double our HR total.

If it were only one of my 3-4-5 hitters or even two of them, I don't think I would have raised the issue just yet, but it would still be on my mind. Yeah, if it were one of 'em I would never complain about it.

I will update this thread at the end of the season. I hope I end up eating crow and show my team HR total was league leading with these 3 hitting the lionshare.

Any thoughts on my "complaint" OTHER than "it's too early to panic" or the forum favorite "small sample size!"? Or any thoughts on statistical fluctuations in general?

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by ALB123

Any thoughts on my "complaint" OTHER than "it's too early to panic" or the forum favorite "small sample size!"?

Not really

Other than only Bonds is really a HR hitter out of that group

[Rain King]

It sounds like you probably already know the answer, but just don't want to admit it for some reason?

[ALB123]

Originally Posted by Rain King

It sounds like you probably already know the answer, but just don't want to admit it for some reason?

Nope. I know what to expect in terms of answers. I guess I was foolish to think perhaps it would be different. That's definitely on me.

[Rain King]

I guess I wonder why you do not think those things are legitimate answers. A month worth of data is only a month worth of data.

Another contributor would be that 1992 was a down year for home runs historically, so if your league is adjusting for that you should expect a lot fewer home runs than there were in 85-86-87.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l.../MLB/bat.shtml

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by ALB123

Nope. I know what to expect in terms of answers. I guess I was foolish to think perhaps it would be different. That's definitely on me.

Why do you think those answers are not correct

[ALB123]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Why do you think those answers are not correct

I didn't say they were correct or not correct. I was looking for people who might want to discuss the question I asked in the title of the post or discuss the situation that I've laid out from my team.

I politely asked that people who want to leave "sample size too small", or something similar to not respond. I don't understand why you or Rain King felt compelled to respond to my post considering your comments would be something along the lines of what I was trying to avoid.

There are many posts on this forum that I don't like or I might think are dumb, so I move on to another post. Maybe that is what would have happened with this thread. That'd be fine...if no one wants to have a discussion about what I've posted, that's cool. Again, I tried to eliminate what I considered would be unproductive responses. Is that not fair? Of course, there is no rule that anyone must follow my request, but again, I can't understand the desire to disregard my simple, polite request.

That's all.

[rudel.dietrich]

The game is a series of dice rolls and your getting some bad dice rolls in regards to HRs.

I really don't know what other answer to give you besides the ones you have already gotten.
There is some variance built into the game and that is a good thing. Variance happens in real life sport.


If I wanted to be snarky about it I would just say 'don't ask questions that you don't want the answers to'

[Rain King]

I would have recommended phrasing it something like "while I understand this is a small sample size and very early in the season, I am wondering..."

You phrased it in a way that seemed to dismiss those thoughts, which IMO makes it extremely difficult to respond to your actual question because I don't know how that could not be a part of the answer.

I'm not sure what it is you are looking for or expecting.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by ALB123

I didn't say they were correct or not correct.


Again, I tried to eliminate what I considered would be unproductive responses.

Seems as though the truth is usually productive.

[RonCo]

The obvious answer is that Bonds is taking anabolic laxatives and should be suspended.

[luckymann]

I've had it happen like this when the group seems to collectively improve or worsen in a certain aspect of the game for a period of time. It usually corrects itself throughout the course of a season. Bonds in my league is particularly streaky. I remember one season when he hit 14 in a month! He is my league's all-time HR leader with 447 but has only won 3 HR titles in 13 seasons. A touch of the Hank Aaron about him!

The fact that HR were down in 1992 still doesn't explain why ALB's Yankees are so light in this area compared to some of the other teams, who are also subject to this statistical anomaly. But 34 games is too small a sample for it to be seen as anything other than just a slow start to the year in this regard.

The good news bud is that you're 23-11 with your power guys turned off for the moment. Imagine how well you'll go when - and they will - they start banging out dingers again!!

[ALB123]

Originally Posted by Rain King

I would have recommended phrasing it something like "while I understand this is a small sample size and very early in the season, I am wondering..."

You phrased it in a way that seemed to dismiss those thoughts, which IMO makes it extremely difficult to respond to your actual question because I don't know how that could not be a part of the answer.

I'm not sure what it is you are looking for or expecting.

Fair enough. But, I don't understand why you keep posting. You left your comment and that's fine, so why do you want to keep posting in this thread?

[Rain King]

Originally Posted by ALB123

Fair enough. But, I don't understand why you keep posting. You left your comment and that's fine, so why do you want to keep posting in this thread?

I mean, I also offered up another possible contributing factor outside of the topics which we will not speak of, but whatevs.

[ALB123]

Originally Posted by luckymann

I've had it happen like this when the group seems to collectively improve or worsen in a certain aspect of the game for a period of time. It usually corrects itself throughout the course of a season. Bonds in my league is particularly streaky. I remember one season when he hit 14 in a month! He is my league's all-time HR leader with 447 but has only won 3 HR titles in 13 seasons. A touch of the Hank Aaron about him!

The fact that HR were down in 1992 still doesn't explain why ALB's Yankees are so light in this area compared to some of the other teams, who are also subject to this statistical anomaly. But 34 games is too small a sample for it to be seen as anything other than just a slow start to the year in this regard.

The good news bud is that you're 23-11 with your power guys turned off for the moment. Imagine how well you'll go when - and they will - they start banging out dingers again!!

Oh, I know it's a small sample size, which is why I was hoping to avoid those type of responses. It's like, "I already know I'm presenting a small sample size, so if you're willing, let's disregard that for a moment. Humor me and maybe give me some thoughts if you've experienced something like this that you couldn't help but think about". As you've pointed out, my Yankees are off to a great start even without the long ball. I mentioned that in my OP - everything seems normal except for the fact that I'm way behind in home runs and I have probably the best power hitter in my MLB universe with excellent hitters before and after him who also have a good amount of pop themselves.

Two seasons ago, before the arrival of Barry Bonds, my Yankees hit 88 home runs...for the year. That team in 1990 produced my 2nd World Series Championship as Yankees GM. We went 99-63 that year. There were only 2 clubs that hit less home runs than us. Toronto hit 82 and finished last in the AL with a 53-109 record. The other team was Montreal. They slugged 83 home runs and finished last in their division with a record of 45-117. Overall, we hit very well in 1990. We just couldn't get the ball over the fence. Other teams in my division had 170+, 160+, 150+...

Perhaps that's why I am already getting concerned about this year's team. Although, last year's team hit 135 homers. We were still far short of the MLB home run leading teams, but better than several. A quick glance at my Almanac and I'd say we probably finished in the middle of MLB teams for home runs.

Regarding your Barry Bonds...You must be talking about the Constellation League, right?

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by ALB123

Regarding your Barry Bonds...You must be talking about the Constellation League, right?

You betcha. He's just tailing off now at 37, had the lowest HR total of his career this season. He's a HOF lock, obviously. But as you can see has had very little individual success with awards and titles given the numbers he's put up, and "only" been on 3 champion teams (2 of them with us!!).

[Dave Stieb II]

They have combined for 8 HR's in 101 games.
Olerud hit 16 in 138 games that year.
Bonds hit 34 in 140 games.
Williams hit 5 in 62 games.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

They have combined for 8 HR's in 101 games.
Olerud hit 16 in 138 games that year.
Bonds hit 34 in 140 games.
Williams hit 5 in 62 games.

That's 55 HR in 340 games
Which would be 16.3 in 101 games
So, yeah, less than what would be expected

[ALB123]

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

They have combined for 8 HR's in 101 games.
Olerud hit 16 in 138 games that year.
Bonds hit 34 in 140 games.
Williams hit 5 in 62 games.

Where are you getting these stats? I'm exhausted, I admit, but I can't figure out where you got all these numbers. LOL

EDIT: Nevermind. I cracked the case. These are the real totals in 1992.

[ALB123]

Please forgive me if I'm not understanding something here. It seems like you're comparing real life 1992 to OOTP 1992, is that correct? Can we really do that when I'm not playing a replay season or whatever its called.

For instance, in real life, Barry Bonds hit 142 home runs from 1986 thru 1991. In my OOTP universe Bonds started in 1985, so I'll disregard that season. However, from 1986 thru 1991 Bonds hit 296 home runs in the game.