Big Free Agent SP Turned to MR?

[dward1]

This has happened twice now in my league: a pitcher who was previously a top pitcher, like ERA under 3 and league-leader in a category or two, is signed like a starter like that (top 5-10 contract) and then moved to middle relief without a chance in the rotation. Have you had this happen and is it an evaluation problem? I'm close to default for fictional leagues.

Here is the most recent one, big signing:


low stamina, but he's always had that. Still a 4-star, AI evaluation is 30/50/15/5. Scouting accuracy is normal.

Here is the 5th starter who for some reason is in the Memphis rotation ahead of Roux



What would make a team spend enormously on a guy then relegate him to mop-up duty. It's now happened twice in 2 offseasons

[The Game]

They are just not good SP now. I see it all the time in my own EBL. Even when I edit stats for the player (based on stats from old games) they are still not SP quality. The bottom guy has a very low BB/K ratio.

[dward1]

Originally Posted by The Game

They are just not good SP now. I see it all the time in my own EBL. Even when I edit stats for the player (based on stats from old games) they are still not SP quality. The bottom guy has a very low BB/K ratio.

the bottom guy is the one in the rotation above the top guy (who signed for the big contract), my question is what process happens that leads team to sign a player to huge contract then very slight ratings changes (-5 on movement I think) leads him to become useless and not even an option (0 spring training innings)

[ThePretender]

The bigger issue is that the bottom guy is on the pitching staff in the first place. Seems like a minor leaguer.

As far as Roux is concerned, his suggested role is showing as "bullpen" which is likely why the game turned him into a RP. Perhaps his stamina dropped and the game doesn't consider him a starter anymore.

[NoOne]

did his stmaina drop? it's quite low. you may not mind it, but it's a viable reason nonetheless. i would never sign an SP with 37 stam / 100.

that's a prime candidate for a 3-pitch closer if they have high stuff. the good ones average 2-3 war as closers and ~1/2ish league baseline ERA. 90-95% closer rate type guys. better than a 5-6ip and out guy. they eat up bullpens.

of course, none of that excuses an SP-contract for an RP/CL in FA.. unless his stamina dropped and the "projected use" also changed due to that at that very moment.

[dward1]

Originally Posted by NoOne

did his stmaina drop? it's quite low. you may not mind it, but it's a viable reason nonetheless. i would never sign an SP with 37 stam / 100.

that's a prime candidate for a 3-pitch closer if they have high stuff. the good ones average 2-3 war as closers and ~1/2ish league baseline ERA. 90-95% closer rate type guys. better than a 5-6ip and out guy. they eat up bullpens.

of course, none of that excuses an SP-contract for an RP/CL in FA.. unless his stamina dropped and the "projected use" also changed due to that at that very moment.

Stamina was 35 before I’m almost positive, 40 at the very most. But he is literally the last reliever on the team now, not a set up guy or anything. It’s puzzling why the ai would offer one of top contracts in league to old guy who if his ratings drop a tiny bit, they view as useless. He still seemed like he’s good also: dominated in his one appearance as you see, this is also true for the other guy who this happened to

[dward1]

Originally Posted by ThePretender

The bigger issue is that the bottom guy is on the pitching staff in the first place. Seems like a minor leaguer.

As far as Roux is concerned, his suggested role is showing as "bullpen" which is likely why the game turned him into a RP. Perhaps his stamina dropped and the game doesn't consider him a starter anymore.

The second guy is actually a decent 5 starter in this league so that’s not a big problem. His stamina hasn’t dropped so I’m still puzzled, anyway you shouldn’t offer huge starter money to someone who you consider an mop up reliever

[ThePretender]

Originally Posted by dward1

The second guy is actually a decent 5 starter in this league so that’s not a big problem. His stamina hasn’t dropped so I’m still puzzled, anyway you shouldn’t offer huge starter money to someone who you consider an mop up reliever

Without seeing his stats before 2017 it's tough to say. But he had a brutal 2018, and I'd argue with his ERA+ he was sub replacement level. Ratings don't look good either, so I don't see how he can be a #5.

My thinking is #1 P had enough stam to start, CPU signed him, stam dropped, then AI realized he was best used in a bullpen role (stam to low to start).

[Marsupilami]

Hsiehs ratings are absolute garbage.
how he can be considered 2 star SP i dont know.
in any league i ever played, he would be 0.5 star and never make it to the ML

[NoOne]

this is a 5th starter for the bottom ~3rd or fewer teams, i'd assume?

definitely garbage. it's gotta be some sort of evaluation-related thing due to contract size, or there is argueably something wrong.

i.e. the scouting adjusts once on team, most likely more accurate, but context would dictat that a bit, and now he's not a rotation member.

it's not really about our opinion of right/wrong beyond simply if it is completely irrational. gm's do things differently from one and other. there are possible rational reasons. impossible to know for sure without looking at the code. certain info can be lost if it's not tracked from before the matter at hand.

if the logic basically said, sign this guy for depth and pay him top-5 just because space is available and very few other qualifications, then there's somethign terribly wrong. raise a red flag in forum, maybe they add it to future revisions todo list for AI?

[dward1]

Roux's stamina has not dropped. his stuff dropped from 60 to 55 in January after signed but surely that's not enough to see him collapse. I'm struggling to see any rational reason still, though he is now a setup man at least.

Hsieh has a 98 ERA+ over 250 innings in 3 years, so that's pretty solid. Memphis is an above average team...but he should never be over Roux is my main point (career 144 ERA+).

a slight ratings decrease shouldn't see a players roles change so quickly...they should at least be given a chance on field. if Verlander came back throwing only 90.5, he wouldn't be turned into a bullpen arm pre-spring training

[NoOne]

the line has to be drawn somewhere... it didn't "jsut happen quickly." it's a somewhat arbitrary choice beyond basic common sense... there's inevitably a grey area where people cannot agree.

you don't like where the line is drawn.. this is similar between any 2 RL GM's too.

when you say 60-55 stamina you mean the /200 scale in editor? because he's 35/100ish in profile picture, which would be ~similar. that is a low stamina -- basically bottom 1/5th to 1/6th of scale. That is undeniably "low." only high end talent is viable at this level of stamina for a consistently good SP that doesn't tax the Bullpen. otherwise you get a ton of 5ip starts and a tired bullpen. only the "better" low stamina guys can clear ~200ip in ~32GS.

unless you have an odd environment, that guy's ratings will never amount to ~140era+ in a career... i guess you league baseline for ratings could be very low? that would make him relatively good, again.

250ip won't tell you anythign with high confidence for a pitcher. hsieh got lucky his firt year and it's clearly not a good pitcher at all.

i don't disagree that the 'lower' stamina guy should be starting over this guy. in this situation with these choices, i would start the lower stamina guy too. it's also not so absurd that the other choice would be made... both look like borderline mlb'ers, either way.

EDIT:

Roux has a knuckleball that's unseen? how well is it rated? if it's "blueish" in coler code, he's much better than he looks. hard to tell without that info. not ongy that, his "low stamina" may no longer a problem.. knuckleballers get more pitches per stamina per game* allow results to determine that... easily clear 200ip/32GS with 35/100 stamina would show this effect ot be obvious. without a kb they couldn't do it.

possible fix -- doesn't work 100%, but turn in comissioner mode and select "SP" for contract promised position... if the AI reasoning favors the current choice too much, it may not be enough to overturn it. in this case i'd feel confident it should work.

coach sliders too... not just stats/ai stuff. if one is a groundballer vs flyball pitcher that would be a key thing to use to favor one over the other.

i've seen some borderline SP knucklballers oscillate between SP and RP for a bit longer than expected before. not sure if it's a real trend or not.

[dward1]

only 6 players have better movement and 1 has better control than Roux (8-team league). 8 current starters have better stuff, so his ratings are actually very good for a starter in this league.

my point is that nothing really changed for him from when they signed him to now, if the Memphis GM didn't value him as a starter in free agency, why spend enough to make him the 5th-highest paid player in the league? his Stuff dropping from 60 to 55, stamina stayed the same, should not change much. his ratings are still #1 or #2 starter good despite the stamina and if the stamina worried GM, they just shouldn't sign him

[NoOne]

a "minus 1" to one rating is all it takes, sometimes. plus all the differences in scouting accuracy... whether it's a small change or not is irrelevant.

too many pieces moving to be so certain as you are... code does what code is supposed to do.. it cannot defy its own logic. Ootp's logic may not be exactly how you feel about certain things... how could expect it to be?

can it be improved? sure... does it need to be in this exact context -- yet to be determined, clearly not enough info to be certain of anything specific. you don't have all the relevant info necessary to really mine "why" it did what it did. you are assuming things that fit your initial perception.

bad decisions will be made... in RL and AI related... so it should happen ... just in proper proportions... on top of that, if it's a ficitonal league with a non-mlb setup it should be expected to deviate in many ways from RL.

i can tell by that being a "good" SP in your league that quality is drastically different. that alone is a huge shift from typical MLB ootp ratings (default). it's 'tuned' for default, so the very fact that ratings are more densely populated on the lower end of the scale that it's decisions making may be compromised. eventually a lack of range will cause problems for sure.