Pet Peeve-Bullpens

[Jagger]

I have been playing OOTP for about three years. I play out the whole season using one pitch style usually playing the Giants or the Rangers. I have been very happy with the simulation with one exception-bullpen performance. I have never played a season in which bullpen performance has felt right. It seems an explosion of runs occur during the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. This year playing OOTP13, I am playing the 2012 Rangers. In real life, they had an excellent bullpen using Uehara and Adams as setup guys and Joe Nathan as the closer. I watched many, many games last year and they were very good and very consistent. But in OOTP13, their performance is absolutely abysmal. I just finished losing another game in which the Twins scored 6 runs in the last 3 innings to win 8-6.

So I decided to compare my number of OOTP13 saves and blown saves vs real life. In real life, the 2012 Rangers had 52 save opportunities with 43 Saves and 9 blown saves for the entire season. Info found here: 2012 MLB Team Pitching Stats - Major League Baseball - ESPN

In my OOTP13 game, I am up to July 8 or approximately half the season complete. So my game 2012 Rangers have had 53 save opportunities with 35 saves and 18 blown saves in half a season. If I project for the remainder of the season, my game 2012 Rangers will have around 106 save opportunities with 70 saves and 36 blown saves.

What strikes me about these stats is that there appear to be about double the save opportunities in OOTP13 than in real life. In addition, blown saves were about 17% in real life-while in my OOTP13 game, they are about 34% using what should be an excellent setup team of Uehara, Adams and Nathan.

Since the beginning of playing OOTP, the bullpen performance has always frustrated me. But this is the first time, I have compared real life performance with the game results. So why are there so many more save situations in OOTP vs real life? And why are there so many more blown saves than in real life? Has anyone else compared their game blown saves vs real life saves for their teams to determine how close are the results?

Pet Peeve rant off...

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Jagger

I have been playing OOTP for about three years. I play out the whole season using one pitch style. I have been very happy with the simulation with one exception-bullpen performance. I have never played a season in which bullpen performance has felt right. It seems an explosion of runs occur during the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. This year playing OOTP13, I am playing the 2012 Rangers. In real life, they had an excellent bullpen using Uehara and Adams as setup guys and Joe Nathan as the closer. I watched many, many games last year and they were very good and very consistent. But in OOTP13, their performance is absolutely abysmal. I just finished losing another game in which the Twins scored 6 runs in the last 3 innings to win 8-6.

So I decided to compare my number of OOTP13 saves and blown saves vs real life. In real life, the 2012 Rangers had 52 save opportunities with 43 Saves and 9 blown saves for the entire season. Info found here: 2012 MLB Team Pitching Stats - Major League Baseball - ESPN

In my OOTP13 game, I am up to July 8 or approximately half the season complete. So my game 2012 Rangers have had 53 save opportunities with 35 saves and 18 blown saves in half a season. If I project for the remainder of the season, my game 2012 Rangers will have around 106 save opportunities with 70 saves and 36 blown saves.

What strikes me about these stats is that there appear to be about double the save opportunities in OOTP13 than in real life. In addition, blown saves were about 17% in real life-while in my OOTP13 game, they are about 34% using what should be an excellent setup team of Uehara, Adams and Nathan.

Since the beginning of playing OOTP, the bullpen performance has always frustrated me. But this is the first time, I have compared real life performance with the game results. So why are there so many more save situations in OOTP vs real life? And why are there so many more blown saves than in real life? Has anyone else compared their game blown saves vs real life saves for their teams to determine how close are the results?

Pet Peeve rant off...

For starters, your sample size is way too small to suggest there's a problem in OOTP. Others are bound to tell you this, as well. You need seasons upon seasons upon seasons of data to be able to say OOTP isn't mirroring real life properly. Your bullpen may just be having a bad year.

I would also say that this volatility in bullpens is very realistic. Only the very best relievers are great every single year.

As for the increase in save opportunities, you have to remember that a set-up guy who blows a save in the seventh or eighth innings records a save chance, whereas when a set-up guy holds a one-run lead in the eighth, then his team scores four runs and he's replaced for the ninth by a different pitcher, no save opportunity is recorded. So blown saves in the 7th and 8th innings are going to raise the amount of save opportunities beyond what you might consider normal. Not to mention you can have multiple save opportunities in the same game if you give up a lead in the seventh or eighth, then regain the lead later on.

Plus, you're comparing save opportunities to the 2012 Rangers. The 52 save opportunities they had last year ranked 26th in baseball. The league average was 60 and the Reds had the most at 74. Your pace of 106 is high, but that's based on a half season. How do you know you won't have a lot less in the second half?

[Jagger]

For starters, your sample size is way too small to suggest there's a problem in OOTP.

I have noticed that is a standard response. Clearly it is impossible to tell if there is a problem in the game or not. It is kind of a catch 22, heh?

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Jagger

I have noticed that is a standard response. Clearly it is impossible to tell if there is a problem in the game or not. It is kind of a catch 22, heh?

Standard response, but the right response. It's not impossible, but proving something is a problem takes time and proof.

[JohnHoward]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Standard response, but the right response. It's not impossible, but proving something is a problem takes time and proof.

What he said. This board is a behavioral economist's dreamscape.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Jagger

I have noticed that is a standard response. Clearly it is impossible to tell if there is a problem in the game or not. It is kind of a catch 22, heh?

Not impossible. It just needs A LOT of data, much much more than a half season's worth, so debating the numbers you have is kinda like pounding sand. We'd be putting in a ton of effort and getting nothing out of it.

[BIG17EASY]

Actually, it looks like you've uncovered a stats bug. I went into my 2013 season to look at the Rangers and saw a very high save opportunities total. A closer look revealed that the game is counting holds as save opportunities, which it should not be doing. See the attached screenshot that shows saves, plus blown saves, plus holds equaling each pitchers save opportunities.

[JohnHoward]

whoa, good catch. that is totally not right.

[Padreman]

Let make sure the creators know of this

[r0nster]

6 blown saves in a season isn't all that unheard of .... even today already nearly every team has 6 blown saves already and the save opps is included when you give a player a hold. that's a save opp but the save went to somebody else

[The Wolf]

Originally Posted by Jagger

I have noticed that is a standard response. Clearly it is impossible to tell if there is a problem in the game or not. It is kind of a catch 22, heh?

It's standard because it's correct.

Nice catch, Big Easy. (How many Louisianans are there on this board, anyway?)

[cheo25]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

(How many Louisianans are there on this board, anyway?)

I fit the profile.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Padreman

Let make sure the creators know of this

I'm going to post my screenshot in the bug thread and in Markus' "Back to work" thread.

[RonP]

I'm glad you caught this as I always have a problem with my pen. Every replay, every league, etc. The first thing I ever posted about on here was regarding Hoyt Wilhelm.

[Ts-Rock]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Standard response, but the right response. It's not impossible, but proving something is a problem takes time and proof.

this


and I'm seeing Save Opps and Holds almost identical for all MR's, but IDK how MLB calculates this.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by The Wolf

It's standard because it's correct.

Nice catch, Big Easy. (How many Louisianans are there on this board, anyway?)

Don't know if I will ever consider myself a Louisianan, but it's where I live.

[VanillaGorilla]

Originally Posted by Jagger

I have been playing OOTP for about three years. I play out the whole season using one pitch style usually playing the Giants or the Rangers. I have been very happy with the simulation with one exception-bullpen performance. I have never played a season in which bullpen performance has felt right. It seems an explosion of runs occur during the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. This year playing OOTP13, I am playing the 2012 Rangers. In real life, they had an excellent bullpen using Uehara and Adams as setup guys and Joe Nathan as the closer. I watched many, many games last year and they were very good and very consistent. But in OOTP13, their performance is absolutely abysmal. I just finished losing another game in which the Twins scored 6 runs in the last 3 innings to win 8-6.

So I decided to compare my number of OOTP13 saves and blown saves vs real life. In real life, the 2012 Rangers had 52 save opportunities with 43 Saves and 9 blown saves for the entire season. Info found here: 2012 MLB Team Pitching Stats - Major League Baseball - ESPN

In my OOTP13 game, I am up to July 8 or approximately half the season complete. So my game 2012 Rangers have had 53 save opportunities with 35 saves and 18 blown saves in half a season. If I project for the remainder of the season, my game 2012 Rangers will have around 106 save opportunities with 70 saves and 36 blown saves.

What strikes me about these stats is that there appear to be about double the save opportunities in OOTP13 than in real life. In addition, blown saves were about 17% in real life-while in my OOTP13 game, they are about 34% using what should be an excellent setup team of Uehara, Adams and Nathan.

Since the beginning of playing OOTP, the bullpen performance has always frustrated me. But this is the first time, I have compared real life performance with the game results. So why are there so many more save situations in OOTP vs real life? And why are there so many more blown saves than in real life? Has anyone else compared their game blown saves vs real life saves for their teams to determine how close are the results?

Pet Peeve rant off...

If you are still using v 13, make sure you have the latest patch, as there was a bug discovered by Dutch in regards to bull pen performance when using the warm-up rule. It was addressed in the patch.

[VanillaGorilla]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Actually, it looks like you've uncovered a stats bug. I went into my 2013 season to look at the Rangers and saw a very high save opportunities total. A closer look revealed that the game is counting holds as save opportunities, which it should not be doing. See the attached screenshot that shows saves, plus blown saves, plus holds equaling each pitchers save opportunities.

If you look at your screen shot, which shows the BS%, you see it is calculated correctly. If you look at the player's save perecentage, you will also see that it is calculated correctly. Note that adding the save% to the BS% does not = 1.000. This is also correct.

OOTP does not have a Save Situation stat column which would denote Saves+Holds+Blown Saves to go along with a Save Opp column which would be Saves + Blown Saves.

Since the "Hold" is not an Official Statistic, the OOTP handling of this data is proper and it is doing the save%/blown save% calculations correctly, based on the data that it posts.

[Ts-Rock]

Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla

If you look at your screen shot, which shows the BS%, you see it is calculated correctly. If you look at the player's save perecentage, you will also see that it is calculated correctly. Note that adding the save% to the BS% does not = 1.000. This is also correct.

OOTP does not have a Save Situation stat column which would denote Saves+Holds+Blown Saves to go along with a Save Opp column which would be Saves + Blown Saves.

Since the "Hold" is not an Official Statistic, the OOTP handling of this data is proper and it is doing the save%/blown save% calculations correctly, based on the data that it posts.

thanks for the clarification VG

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by VanillaGorilla

If you look at your screen shot, which shows the BS%, you see it is calculated correctly. If you look at the player's save perecentage, you will also see that it is calculated correctly. Note that adding the save% to the BS% does not = 1.000. This is also correct.

OOTP does not have a Save Situation stat column which would denote Saves+Holds+Blown Saves to go along with a Save Opp column which would be Saves + Blown Saves.

Since the "Hold" is not an Official Statistic, the OOTP handling of this data is proper and it is doing the save%/blown save% calculations correctly, based on the data that it posts.

I understand your point, and the way you present it is correct. But, that means the Save Opportunities stat needs to be changed to be called Save Situations, or the Save Opportunities stat needs to be corrected to equal Saves+Blown Saves.