The NABL

[jaa36]

Hitting coach Pearce Oxford and pitching coach Julio Dominguez were both signed to five-year extensions. Bench coach Gene Meade was fired with one year left on his contract- fielding was not our strong suit, and we can do better. (As an aside, I realized that my minor league teams have all been playing without coaches-- oops.) George Graves will stay on as manager- he did well!

We have a number of players up for arbitration, but most of them will sign for less than a million. Al Brooks is obviously the most important of the arbitration-eligibles, and we will try to lock him up for a multi-year deal.

After getting through arbitration, we should have around $20M to spend in free agency, maybe more. We also will have a few prospect first basemen to shop. The main goal will be to pick up a middle-of-the-order hitter. Our old friend John Ward will be on the market...

[jaa36]

Well, we found a power hitter for the middle of the order. We shopped first baseman Jose Gomez on the first day of free agency. Gomez, despite being behind Johnny Knapp at El Paso, was an absolute beast this year, hitting .333 with 14 home runs in 141 at-bats. Brandon Lyon rates him as a 4.5-star player, with 20/20 power already at age 23. But with Al Brooks manning first, there was nowhere for him to play. He brought back 22-year-old outfielder John McCants, the #3 overall pick in 2003, from the Dallas Rattlers. McCants came out of Arkansas, signed for $10.4M and a major league contract of $1.5M/year, and went straight into the bigs. He had a lackluster year with the Rattlers last year, hitting .236 with 17 home runs, but projects with equal power to Gomez, better contact and speed, and the ability to play any outfield position. It will be hard to watch Gomez play against us for the next six-plus years, but having McCants makes it worth it.

Al Brooks was rewarded for his outstanding season with a four-year extension for $8.5M/year, which will take him into free agency at age 30. And Hector Ortega signed a four-year deal for $6M/year.

The priority now shifts to finding a middle infielder who could start at second or short. Luis Molina looks like he'll be ready to take over third base next year. 28-year-old John Ward and 29-year-old Pedro "Turkey" Rodriguez are the top free agents in the middle infield, but may go for as much as $20M/season, which would be too much.

[jaa36]

We couldn't sign John Ward, but we were able to acquire another former Spartan for the vacant middle infield position: Javier Garcia. Ward ended up signing with Los Angeles for $20M/year for seven years- too much. Garcia was a much more affordable $3M/year for two years. He spent last year with Seattle and was mediocre there, but should provide a good mix of offense and defense for us. We also picked up starter Angelo Hidalgo, a 27-year-old lefty who spent most of his career with St. Louis. Hidalgo will probably end up in the rotation. We're kicking the tires on a few other pitchers for our spring training exemption. Another goal for spring training will be teaching Pedro Ferrer a passable third base: manager George Graves always seems to want to play him there.

[jaa36]

We are projected to finish 88-74, tied with Phoenix for second in the WC South. This would put us six games out of the wild card behind San Francisco. Mexico City is projected to finish 104-58 and score 950 runs. Unfortunately, no one on our team was listed among the top ten hitters or pitchers. Javier Martinez is projected to hit only .345. In the EC, Jacksonville is projected to take back the Southern Division. Erratic Denver went from 97 wins two years ago to 64 last year, and is supposed to bounce back to 94 this year.

We signed 30-year-old reliever Alain Benoist for a cool $800K. Benoist has been a key part of the Kansas City bullpen for the last three years. Alfonso Chavez, who is signed for two years at $1.7M, was placed on waivers after a rough year last year. We still have Manuel Ruiz lurking in AAA because we have good bullpen depth. Augusto Gomez won the fifth spot in the rotation, mostly so that Curt Wright could give us one lefty in the pen.

Last year's top pick Verissimo Alvares was the #12 overall prospect in baseball, and outfielder Vincent Jefferson #59. We are still only the #21 farm system overall.

[jaa36]

It's been an up and down first month- after mucking around for a while we dropped five in a row, then came roaring back to win the last five, three by shutouts. We sit at 14-13, three back of division-leading Phoenix. Al Brooks and Kendrick Boyd have set the table well, .336 and .351 respectively, and new acquisition John McCants has paid of well so far, hitting .311 with 20 RBI already. However, we're only 15th in scoring so far, and despite unimpressive pitching stats are 3rd in run prevention. Jose Gutierrez has saved five and hasn't allowed a run yet.

We have quite a few potential free agents, but probably only Alan Benoist and maybe Orlando Ramirez are asking for a price I'd be willing to pay as an extension. We may have a lot of turnover between this year and next year. The good news is we should have some room to make a move financially if we have to.

[jaa36]

After going 19-10 on the month, the San Antonio Outlaws now hold first place in the WC South at 33-23 overall, a half-game in front of Phoenix. The Outlaws won nine straight and 12 of 13, mostly beating up on the weak EC South in interconference play. The offense boasts four .300 hitters so far, with Kendrick Boyd leading the way at .346. Graciano Ribas has been hot, hitting .293 with eight homers in May. John McCants continued hitting well and took over the cleanup spot in the lineup. Javier Garcia returned from the disabled list, but we lost Fernando Castaneda for the season; Castaneda had been playing way over his head this season, hitting .337.

Ace Matt Johnson had a great month on the mound, going 5-1 with a 3.25 ERA. The top four is all pitching well. Curt Wright was just invited back to the rotation after Augusto Gomez struggled in the #5 slot. Jose Gutierrez has been untouchable in the closer's role; he's asking for $7.5M/year for six years, which seems pretty long for a reliever, and will probably walk as a free agent at the end of the year. Alain Benoist has struggled with the team so far, but I like his potential enough that I extended him for two years at $1.4M/year.

[jaa36]

The Outlaws selected high school pitcher Larry Cantrell with the #31 overall pick in the draft. Cantrell, a righty, throws five pitches, and could develop into a real control artist. He doesn't look to have a top-of-the-rotation ceiling though.

The second round pick was pitcher Erwin Rogers out of Cal State Fullerton- he projects as a power arm out of the bullpen. We had two third round picks (didn't sign one last year)- Imbart Taaij (Curacaoan), an outfielder, and Les Hendrick, an infielder, both out of college, both with really solid marks across the board from Brandon Lyon. Fourth round was college infielder Tyler Fullerton, and fifth round was Tony Anderson, high school pitcher who will probably end up in the bullpen. We can probably sign them all- though I had said that last year and then went and added $30M in salary.

Top pick overall this year was SP Tim Downs out of Pepperdine, who was selected by the Nashville Navigators- to Brandon Lyon's eyes, he appears to be just a mid-rotation starter.

A look back at previous first round picks, both in Jacksonville and San Antonio:

2001: Cliff Rogers- mediocre future backup middle infielder
2002: Myron Sullivan- mediocre backup second baseman
2003: Lee Harris- actually good! .266 with 9 homers, playing center field with Jacksonville, 4 1/2 star rating.
2004: Verissimo Alvares- in the rotation at AAA El Paso, struggling a bit but should end up a mid-rotation starter in the bigs.

[jaa36]

Ouch- 10-18 in June. We're carrying a five-game losing streak into July. We now sit at 43-41, in fourth place and five games behind division-leading Mexico City. Some of our slip can be blamed on injuries, as we lost both John McCants and Kendrick Boyd for chunks of time. Top prospect Vincent Jefferson has come up and has started well, and outfielder Cris Cardenas was signed for $800K to provide depth. Cornell Walton has had a tough year and is only hitting .249. Luis Molina has provided some power with 14 home runs, but we have not been a good power-hitting team overall. Matt Johnson pitched well at the top of the rotation, and Jose Gutierrez continued to dominate, but the rest of the staff had a rough month.

I'm not sure whether we'll be buyers or sellers at the deadline at this point. There's a lot to like about this club, and we're certainly still in the hunt, but this year feels like more of a letdown compared to last year.

[jaa36]

Philadelphia is tearing up the EC Atlantic and looks to make the playoffs for the first time since 1993, after going 69-93 last year. Toronto is comfortably out in front in the North. The Charlotte Eagles look like they could take the EC South; as you may recall, they were the team that beat out the Spartans in the one-game playoff in 2001, which has been their only playoff appearance since 1985.

In the WC, San Francisco is leading the Pacific. They recently re-signed Von Kirby, a Roger Clemens-style midseason pickup- but Kirby really has nothing in the tank, just 6/20 stuff, and is just padding his counting stats at this point. Denver is way ahead in the North, as predicted, and the South is up for grabs right now.

No one looks likely to hit .400 this year! Jose Guzman has been amazing as usual, and Pedro Gonzalez appears ready to take over as the annual WC Pitcher of the Year winner. Will Bell may repeat as Player of the Year, and Will Ewing is in the lead for the award in the WC.

[jaa36]

Despite having a winning month, we're mucking around in fifth place in a very strong WC South. We're currently 6 1/2 games out of the wild card, so there's still a shot, but we'd have to beat out five teams that are ahead of us. The Dallas Rattlers went 21-6 in June and an amazing 25-3 in July, winning 19 straight games and 27 of 28 to become the surprise leaders in the division. Both our power and speed numbers are pretty miserable, though we still have four .300 hitters. Graciano Ribas and Luis Molina share the home run lead with 19, though Ribas is currently on the DL, leaving a big hole in the lineup. Among the pitchers, Curt Wright has turned things around nicely, and Matt Johnson has put together a fairly good season.

Despite their solid production this year, I remain skeptical about bringing back Kendrick Boyd, Orlando Ramirez, or Ribas. All three are asking $10M+/year and are getting up in years, and we aren't financial equipped to offer long-term deals to these types of players. It's looking more like we're going to have build around a younger core. We attempted shopping Ramirez, Ribas, and Jose Gutierrez at the deadline without success, so no trades this year.

[jaa36]

It's frustrating, as this isn't a bad team- 16-11 this past month. But we're just not making up enough ground. We're still 5 1/2 games out of the wild card and have three teams we'd have to vault over. Dallas appears to have wrapped up the WC South. Kudos to John McCants, who's put together a nice season in his first year with the club. Cornell Walton continues to put together just a miserable season for him. And Javier Garcia has had a pretty wretched year too. Al Brooks is in the middle of a 3-week stint on the DL with a torn hamstring- ouch. In the rotation, Matt Johnson, Hector Ortega, and Curt Wright all had strong months. Our possible closer-in-waiting Manuel Ruiz has had a strong season- he already throws 99 and should improve his stuff substantially in the next few seasons.

For the second year in a row, no all-stars. It would be nice if we could beat out Mexico City in the standings- we finished 26 games behind them last year, and have won the first three games of a four-game series against them heading into September.

[jaa36]

Most of the divisions appear locked up already: Philadelphia, Toronto, Denver, and Dallas should coast into the playoffs from here on out. The EC South is a dogfight, as the Spartans have come on to put the top three teams within 1/2 game of each other. The wild card is murky in both conferences. Jose Guzman is 21-2 with a 1.91 ERA and appears a lock to win his fifth straight Pitcher of the Year. Portland's dynamic duo of Jose Martinez and Ivan Santos have turned things on to lead the Archers into the thick of the wild card chase. And remember Jose Gomez, who we traded for John McCants? He's already over 100 RBI with Dallas... ouch.

[jaa36]

The Outlaws put together another good month at 14-9, but it wasn't enough to squeak into the playoffs. They finished at 88-74, three games worse than last year and five games out of the wild card. The team finished with four .300 hitters in Al Brooks, Orlando Ramirez, Kendrick Boyd, and John McCants, though none of them hit for great power. Rookie third baseman Luis Medina led the team with 24 homers and 83 RBI but only hit .240, and Graciano Ribas hit 23 home runs. Cornell Watson was an utter disappointment.

On the pitching side, Curt Wright turned in an incredible second half, with an ERA below 2.00 and culminating in a shutout in his last start of the season. Matt Johnson continued to improve steadily, finishing with the most strikeouts and least walks of his career. Free agent acquisition Angelo Hidalgo finished with an effective season at the bottom of the rotation. Ace reliever Jose Gutierrez tailed off in the second half, with an ERA above 4.50.

We will head into the offseason with Ramirez, Boyd, Ribas, Gutierrez, and Jesus Leon most likely leaving as free agents. We will have some holes to fill, but some money to spend to do it. We turned a $33M profit this year, and the attendance was the best since 1998. Despite the disappointment of this year, all of our staff will likely return for next year.

[jaa36]

In the EC, Charlotte did end up taking the South after all. Jacksonville slumped at the end of the year to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Cleveland came alive at the end of the year to steal the wild card from the three EC South teams that tied for second. Nashville had the worst record in baseball for the third year running- they are terrible. Miami outfielder Will Bell broke 10 WAR and was one of two players with 50 or more homers.

The WC saw Dallas end up with the best record in the conference at 99-63. Portland eked out the wild card spot, a game ahead of Mexico City, who slipped 25 games from last year's final record. After a .400 season last year, Javier Martinez hit "only" .318 for the Aztecs. In a nice surprise, Curt Wright finished third in the league in ERA at 2.49. San Francisco's Von Kirby went 8-5 in what will likely be his final season and is on the DL as the Condors head to the playoffs; if they win, it would be his second title.

[jaa36]

The upstart Charlotte Eagles were this year's NABL champions, sweeping the Dallas Rattlers. Charlotte's biggest test was their first-round series against Toronto, in which they came back from a 3-2 series deficit on the road to advance. This was the Eagles' fifth championship, and their first since 1985, though they overall have a losing record in the league.

The Eagles were a balanced team overall. Center fielder Esteban Batista, who had ridden the AAA shuttle at Jacksonville for several years, established himself here by hitting .335. Left fielder Martin Rodriguez hit .318 with 24 home runs and 108 RBI. Ace Juan Miranda went 20-4 with a 2.66 ERA. And the bullpen was the best in the league, with five reliever with an ERA under 3.00, including closer Francisco Aguirre at 2.19. They defeated a powerhouse Rattlers team that included first baseman Jose Gomez (finished at .307/29/117), center fielder Will Ewing (.360/27/87), and former #1 overall pick Nick Brown (.312/19/94), as well as ace Angel Rocha, who has slumped a bit in his first two years with Dallas.

[jaa36]

Orlando Ramirez paced the team with 4.9 WAR. He's hard to let go, but at 30 and asking for $15M/year- I just can't do it. Pedro Ferrer lost us two games with his contributions- he will not be back. No one else even surpassed 3 WAR. And look at those stolen base numbers- no one above 13. On the pitching side, Matt Johnson led the way with 6.9 WAR (though I think this game overestimates pitcher WAR) and the rest of the rotation chipped in with at least 3.2 apiece. Incredibly, and I didn't realize this until now, we used only 11 pitchers all season- no one got injured.

[Orcin]

Nobody saw Charlotte coming!

You are in a tough division, so you have to be pleased with your progress. That's a pretty good record to be fourth.

Have fun re-tooling and spending your money.

[jaa36]

Will Bell took home both the Player of the Year and Batter of the Year trophies in the EC for the second consecutive year, Jose Guzman won his fifth straight Pitcher of the Year award and his sixth overall. Ivan Santos won his third overall Player of the Year in the WC, but the Batter of the Year award went to Denver's Esteban Vega. The Pitcher of the Year went to Pedro Gonzalez for the second year in a row. Jose Gomez was selected Rookie of the Year in the WC after we traded him away; our own Luis Molina was second in the voting.

[jaa36]

Dan Young, arguably the best position player in the history of the NABL, was selected to the Hall of Fame this year. Young, a native of Temple City, CA, was drafted #4 overall out of college- Cal Tech, of all places!- in 1983 by Cincinnati. He made it to the bigs with the Railers the following season and never looked back, hitting .302 with a .422 on-base percentage in his first season. In 1986 he won his first Player of the Year Award, hitting .330 with 39 home runs and 153 RBI, beginning a string of eight Player of the Years in ten seasons. Young shattered the RBI mark, which had previously stood at 148, though the record has since been broken. Consistency was a mark of his game, as in those seasons he never hit less than .315 or had an on-base percentage less than .445. His keen batting eye was a major source of his value, as he would annually walk over 100 times, with a high of 162, and stands as the all-time leader with 1998. Not once in his career did he finish with an on-base percentage less than .400, and had a .460 career mark (which remains the all-time record) to go along with a .320 batting average. Sadly, despite his excellence his teams only made it to the playoffs four times, and he never won a championship, through no fault of his own, as he hit .349 in 106 playoff at-bats. After spending his whole career with Cincinnati, he moved to Montreal for the 2000 season, and the Railers promptly won it all without him. He was a two-time gold glover at first base for Cincinnati. He stands as the NABL's all-time leader in WAR at 123 (with six seasons above 10) and VORP at 1253. He is #6 overall for runs scored, #8 for RBI, and #7 for home runs despite a relatively short career compared to the others on the list. Congratulations Dan!

[jaa36]

AAA El Paso finished 77-68, losing in a playoff after a three-way tie for first with Austin and Oklahoma City. Center fielder Orlando Bautista, who batted a grand total of four times for the Outlaws, launched an amazing 45 home runs and drove in 115 to pace the offense, left fielder Danny Hill hit 33 homers and had 89 RBI, and second baseman Fred Stevens hit .317 with 17 home runs. Prospect outfielder Vincent Jefferson was mediocre, hitting .258 with 17 home runs and 51 RBI, and stealing 34 bases. The pitching staff was mediocre, with two starters with ERAs under 4.00. Reliever Alfonso Chaves (signed to a major-league contract) was injured most of the season but had a 20-1 K/BB ratio and a 1.20 ERA.

Single A Corpus Christi had a poor year, going 56-84. Our top prospect Verissimo Alvares pitched well here, with a 2.59 ERA and 82 K in 87 innings, but was much worse with El Paso for the rest of the season. Starter Jon Head had an ERA under 3.00 for the second year in a row but was only 2-9. The offense was miserable, 17th out of 18 teams in the conference.

And rookie ball Abilene also had a rough year, going 31-37. Top pick Larry Cantrell was decent, going 5-3 with a 3.22 ERA. Third-round pick Imbart Taaij played well, hitting .301.