Need advice on in-game managing

[Curtis]

I'm pretty obviously not new to OotPB, but I am pretty naive about how to manage my club during games. I would appreciate any advice more veteran watchers of real baseball could give me on the following:

1) When should you bring the outfield in? When play deep?

2) When should you bring your defensive replacements into the game? The yardstick I'm using now is 'when I'm ahead in the 7th or later inning and it appears unlikely the player they're substituting for will come to bat again', but that's not proving satisfactory.

3) When do you bring your infield in? Not before a certain inning? Not when you're trailing? Not when you're up by three or more?

4) I know to bring the corners in when I'm expecting a bunt (which doesn't appear to have an effect, by the way; it didn't much in Strat-O-Matic, either), but when should I bring in just the first baseman? Just the third baseman?

5) Are there situations when I shouldn't 'hold runner'? In Version 9 it seemed to allow a lot of extra hits due to the fielders being out of position, but in Version 10 that doesn't seem to be the case (small sample size). It also doesn't seem to have much effect. Last night I was holding a runner with speed 20 (20-80 scale) on second with a pitcher who has a pretty good 'hold runner' rating (65), and he scored on a little dinker in front of my center fielder, who has great range (80) and a fair arm (55). With him charging in like that, and the play-by-play said he made an accurate throw, the play at the plate wasn't even close. Discouraging.

6) What's the proper use of my 'trash time' relievers? My staff has two good (righty/lefty), four fair (righty/three lefties) and two poor (both righthanded SPs) relievers. What I've been doing is warming up the 'long men' from the start of a game, just in case of injury or meltdown, neither of which has happened since I started doing this. Half an inning before pitching the sixth I sit them down and stand up a righty/lefty pair, then juggle the 'short men' through the rest of the game. Is there a better way to do this? Should I be using the 'long men' in late innings of blowout games? Remember that, unlike real life, it doesn't hurt to keep pitchers warming up for twenty innings, and they don't get rusty if not used for two weeks.

7) Oh, and what constitutes a 'blowout'? Does it require oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico? I ask because two nights ago I had a game I was leading 7-0 going into the bottom of the ninth, but my starter and two 'good' relievers were gone from the game. Two of my 'fair' relievers decided to make the game interesting before coming away with a 7-5 victory (tying run at the plate).

Any advice would be appreciated.

[Kuttner]

Hey Curtis,
I'll chime in on a couple of these...

(1) Bringing the outfield in is done with less than 2 outs, and you can't afford a runner on 3rd, or a fast runner on 2nd, to score. Usually late in the game, pitching team tied. The thinking is, that if the ball is hit shallow, you have a higher percentage of throwing the runner out at home. (Either single or sac fly.) There's no point in playing the outfielders deep or normal, because the run will most likely score anyway, so the only chance is to play shallow and hope for a pop-op or quickly hit line drive hopper that gets to the OF real quick.

(2) I usually do it starting in the 8th when I'm up by a couple of runs. Up by one, I won't take out any of my best hitters. But that's just me. Probably a lot of differing opinions on this one.

(3) Bringing the infield in is really just done for specific at-bats with less than 2 outs. Much like the OF, it's when you can't afford a runner on 3rd trying to score on a ground ball. (Usually a tie game.) Your goal is to hold the runner at 3rd. The belief is since you're closer to him and to home plate it will be easier to "encourage" him to stay at 3rd or to throw him out at the plate. Once you get a second out, you would set the IF back to normal.

Of course it's also a risk since the IFs have less time to react to a sharply hit ball, so the chances for a single increase as well, but you do it because you basically believe that any ground ball that scores the runner will result in you losing the game.

(5) Holding runners has a lot to do with stretch mechanics and how comfortably a pitcher can pitch from the stretch, rather than a full windup. It sounds like you managed that scenario the way it should be, but didn't get the expected result. I'm not sure what algorithms OOTP could possibly have to account for stretch and wind up pitching. My guess is it just cuts down the # of steal attempts, but might affect the pitcher in some negative way?

(6) I use my trash guys in a game that's (depending on the inning) considered out of reach in either direction. It gets the guys some work and keeps the better relievers rested for tomorrow. Of course if I end up losing a couple games this way I tend to change that philosophy.

[Mike R]

(1) As far as bringing the outfield in. I would only do this in the bottom of the 9th or later and only with the winning run on 3rd and less than 2 outs. Never in any other situation. (I'm talking real life here.)

(3) Infield in with less than 2 outs, a runner on 3rd and you feel you can't afford to let the run score. The situation in (1) above is obvious. But whenever you're behind (or tied) and you feel you can't allow your opponents to score more runs. Usually later in a game but if you’re up against a tough pitcher and you feel runs will be hard to come by I've seen teams do it in the 2nd or 3rd inning.

Every one manages a little different. If you use a certain strategy and it works then you're a genius. If it fails you’re a dope. It's what makes the game fun.

[Curtis]

Kuttner and Mike R, thank you for your responses. If I don't get any more response down here, I'll try posting this again up in the 'main' part of the forum next week. Don't feel like you need to respond again, unless you've thought of something to add.

Meanwhile, here's another question:

8) Should you change a spot starter's role to MR? I have my spot starters all doubling as mopup relievers, but I've left their roles as starter.

[Simmo13]

Curtis, regarding 5) I've always understood that "holding runner" is the equivalent of a pitcher using the slide step, so the runner doesn't get as big a jump but the pitcher loses something off the fastball for instance. I seem to remember in an earlier OOTP incarnation that Markus agreed with that definition but I could of course be wrong
Must admit I very seldom use it.

[Curtis]

Ah, okay. Another data point. Thanks for adding that, and now that you've mentioned that slide step it sounds familiar to me, too.

[fintach]

The following constitute not facts, but my opinions based on how I believe these things either are or are intended to be:

Originally Posted by Curtis

1) When should you bring the outfield in? When play deep?

Playing them deep is intended to help avoid extra-base hits at the expense of giving up more singles. Perhaps late in a tight game with a fast runner on third.

Playing them in is intended to prevent baserunners from advancing two bases on a short single, and perhaps avoid a short sac fly -- again, late in a tight game.

Personally, I'm not big on either of these.

Originally Posted by Curtis

2) When should you bring your defensive replacements into the game? The yardstick I'm using now is 'when I'm ahead in the 7th or later inning and it appears unlikely the player they're substituting for will come to bat again', but that's not proving satisfactory.

Traditionally they are brought into the game in the 7th inning or later, to help preserve a small lead (or to give a veteran some rest). It's probably better to let them hit once than leave a stone glove in a position to hurt you.

Originally Posted by Curtis

3) When do you bring your infield in? Not before a certain inning? Not when you're trailing? Not when you're up by three or more?

The infield is brought in with a runner on third base and fewer than two outs to prevent the runner from scoring on a groundout. With one out and a runner on first, the defense may opt to play back and hope for the double-play, or play the just corners in so that the shortstop and second baseman will be ready for a double play, but groundballs down the lines will hold the runner.

This is usually only used when the game is close (tied, +-2 runs) and the game is either important or the inning is the 6th or later. Also, a team may do it if runs will be at a premium in a given game (such as Lincecum v. Straussberg, when both are on their games).

Originally Posted by Curtis

4) I know to bring the corners in when I'm expecting a bunt (which doesn't appear to have an effect, by the way; it didn't much in Strat-O-Matic, either), but when should I bring in just the first baseman? Just the third baseman?

You might play those in to watch for the bunt for a hit. Depending on which line you are expecting for it.

Originally Posted by Curtis

5) Are there situations when I shouldn't 'hold runner'? In Version 9 it seemed to allow a lot of extra hits due to the fielders being out of position, but in Version 10 that doesn't seem to be the case (small sample size). It also doesn't seem to have much effect. Last night I was holding a runner with speed 20 (20-80 scale) on second with a pitcher who has a pretty good 'hold runner' rating (65), and he scored on a little dinker in front of my center fielder, who has great range (80) and a fair arm (55). With him charging in like that, and the play-by-play said he made an accurate throw, the play at the plate wasn't even close. Discouraging.

The impression I have is that holding a runner makes them less likely to steal (or at least steal successfully). Anything beyond that, I would be speculating. Come to think of it, considering the sample size (90 games of one season) pretty much anything I say here is speculation.

Originally Posted by Curtis

6) What's the proper use of my 'trash time' relievers? My staff has two good (righty/lefty), four fair (righty/three lefties) and two poor (both righthanded SPs) relievers. What I've been doing is warming up the 'long men' from the start of a game, just in case of injury or meltdown, neither of which has happened since I started doing this. Half an inning before pitching the sixth I sit them down and stand up a righty/lefty pair, then juggle the 'short men' through the rest of the game. Is there a better way to do this? Should I be using the 'long men' in late innings of blowout games? Remember that, unlike real life, it doesn't hurt to keep pitchers warming up for twenty innings, and they don't get rusty if not used for two weeks.

In general, a long reliever isn't brought in later than the fifth or sixth inning, unless he is expected to throw for several innings. However, in real life, they might be used in other situations if the bullpen is a bit depleted or if they haven't pitched an a while and the manager wants to keep them sharp. I don't know about the actual game effects here, but I use my long relievers this way in the game because it makes sense to me.

Originally Posted by Curtis

7) Oh, and what constitutes a 'blowout'? Does it require oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico? I ask because two nights ago I had a game I was leading 7-0 going into the bottom of the ninth, but my starter and two 'good' relievers were gone from the game. Two of my 'fair' relievers decided to make the game interesting before coming away with a 7-5 victory (tying run at the plate).

Usually I think of a blowout, also called a "laugher", as a game with a score difference of six or more runs. Looking at the box score of that game, I would probably consider your "fair" relievers having almost blown a laugher. People vary about how many runs are required though -- some may not call it a blowout unless one team wins by ten runs or more, for example.

[fintach]

Forgot something about #5:

Personally I don't bother holding runners when a very slow runner would have to advance for faster runners behind him to advance. I will make an exception if the game is both late and close, or if the slow runner has a high steal rating.

[Curtis]

Originally Posted by fintach

Playing them deep is intended to help avoid extra-base hits at the expense of giving up more singles. Perhaps late in a tight game with a fast runner on third.

{Or with the bases empty, to hold batters to first base?}

Traditionally they are brought into the game in the 7th inning or later, to help preserve a small lead (or to give a veteran some rest). It's probably better to let them hit once than leave a stone glove in a position to hurt you.

{My defensive replacements are only modest improvements on the starters. Even at third base, which I described as a 'black hole' above, the replacement is below average, and no one coming up through the minors is any better. Maybe next year.}

You might play those in to watch for the bunt for a hit. Depending on which line you are expecting for it.

{Okay. How do I know which line to expect a bunt to go down? Small sample size, but most bunts seem to be fielded by either the catcher or pitcher.}

The impression I have is that holding a runner makes them less likely to steal (or at least steal successfully). Anything beyond that, I would be speculating. Come to think of it, considering the sample size (90 games of one season) pretty much anything I say here is speculation.

{Good point, but I think you're right about it cutting down on attempts. I have generally good Hold Runner ratings, but my starting catcher has only a fair arm, and my opponents attempt way fewer than I do.}

In general, a long reliever isn't brought in later than the fifth or sixth inning, unless he is expected to throw for several innings. However, in real life, they might be used in other situations if the bullpen is a bit depleted or if they haven't pitched an a while and the manager wants to keep them sharp. I don't know about the actual game effects here, but I use my long relievers this way in the game because it makes sense to me.

Okay. Thank you for your insight, fintach. I think I'm getting a better picture here.

[fintach]

"{Or with the bases empty, to hold batters to first base?}"

Yes, I forgot about that one. That would be why some people call it the "no doubles" defense, although technically that might require guarding the lines too. Guarding the lines is the same kind of thing - positioning your first and third basemen to prevent doubles down the base lines, but at the price of widening the infiled holes and risking more singles.

"{My defensive replacements are only modest improvements on the starters. Even at third base, which I described as a 'black hole' above, the replacement is below average, and no one coming up through the minors is any better. Maybe next year.}"

Ouch. I hope they can hit well enough to help make up the difference!

"{Okay. How do I know which line to expect a bunt to go down? Small sample size, but most bunts seem to be fielded by either the catcher or pitcher.}"

I've noticed that in OOTP too, but I have the same sample size problem. So, more of a rule of thumb, most bunters going for a hit try to bunt down the third base line. This is purely anecdotal from my own watching (and more limited playing in real life) of baseball, and I've never asked anyone why or tried to do any real research on the matter. My speculation is that, if one bunts down the first base line, one risks running into the ball in fair territory (for an out) or being tagged out by a fielder in the act of picking up the ball.

I know that there are times and reasons to bunt toward first, but I'm not thinking of any at the moment. (Of course, I *am* at work :-) )

"{Good point, but I think you're right about it cutting down on attempts. I have generally good Hold Runner ratings, but my starting catcher has only a fair arm, and my opponents attempt way fewer than I do.}"

That makes sense to me logically, since a pitcher with a good hold rating knows how to speed up his motion with runners on, how to vary his delivery, when to look at the runner to freeze him, and other tricks to hurt a runner's chances.

[Curtis]

Originally Posted by fintach

"{My defensive replacements are only modest improvements on the starters. Even at third base, which I described as a 'black hole' above, the replacement is below average, and no one coming up through the minors is any better. Maybe next year.}"

Ouch. I hope they can hit well enough to help make up the difference!

My speculation is that, if one bunts down the first base line, one risks running into the ball in fair territory (for an out) or being tagged out by a fielder in the act of picking up the ball.

I know that there are times and reasons to bunt toward first, but I'm not thinking of any at the moment. (Of course, I *am* at work :-) )

First, thank you for coming back to this thread.

Second, no, they can't hit a lick. All of my third basemen (six in the system) are converted keystoners. The second/short fielders I didn't convert are nearly all better hitters than the ones I did convert, but they're also better fielders, so I wanted to leave them where they were. As I said, I'm hoping to upgrade during the offseason.

Third, I seem to recall that a decade ago it was not unusual for lefthanded hitters to drag bunts down the first base line, but I can't remember what the typical circumstances were. Bunting for a hit?

[Ramzavail]

Originally Posted by Curtis

Kuttner and Mike R, thank you for your responses. If I don't get any more response down here, I'll try posting this again up in the 'main' part of the forum next week. Don't feel like you need to respond again, unless you've thought of something to add.

Meanwhile, here's another question:

8) Should you change a spot starter's role to MR? I have my spot starters all doubling as mopup relievers, but I've left their roles as starter.

I always change my pitchers to be the actual role they are in. I always found that if you don't do that, their fatigue levels are different.