Pull/Normal/Spray Have No Impact

[arod23]

One of the GMs in my league noticed that Babe Ruth is a "pull" hitter in one league and a "normal" hitter in another league. The "pull" Ruth was consistent and a much better producer than the "normal" Ruth. I told him that it was just random chance that they are different and that there are so many variables that change things, e.g., the opposing pitchers, relative strength of the division, etc. I then did a search and couldn't find anything about what hitter type does, except for one post about batting orders.

So, I decided to test the three different hitting types. I created a six team league, all six teams were identical with the exception of the hitter type. Each team had identical hitters, pitchers, fielding ratings at each position, same lineup order, same ratings, etc. To increase the possible variability, I had two teams for each hitter type: Pull, Normal, Spray. All teams played the same number of games against each other, same neutral ballpark...I simmed 10 seasons...over 9700 games...

Here are the results:

Type	Win%	Worst	Best	AB/HR
Normal	0.497	0.401	0.556	16.4
Pull	0.500	0.426	0.636	16.4
Spray	0.502	0.438	0.562	16.2

Over 10 seasons, their records were essentially equal, which means that hitter type has ZERO impact on hitting. The range of season wins did vary but they are well within the range we would expect by chance. That is, flip a coin 162 times, sometimes it will turn up heads 40% of the time and sometimes 60% of the time. In one of the posts, someone suggested that a "pull" hitter might have more power, but that also was not the case. HRs were basically the same with all groups.

No sim-shattering analysis here, but at least it is one less variable that we don't need to worry about. Incidentally, hitter type is randomly assigned by OOTP and not based on any database fields.

[scefalu]

Could it be that the Pull/Normal/Spray attribute is simply for cosmetic PbP purposes? By that, I mean that it may not be used in determining the outcome of a play, but it could be used to determine whether the ground ball is fielded by the first baseman or third baseman.

Any ideas?

[arod23]

Originally Posted by scefalu

Could it be that the Pull/Normal/Spray attribute is simply for cosmetic PbP purposes? By that, I mean that it may not be used in determining the outcome of a play, but it could be used to determine whether the ground ball is fielded by the first baseman or third baseman.

Any ideas?

I think you are probably correct in that the sole purpose is to add variability to the play by play.

[gmo]

There are other threads on this topic, but this is the one I most easily remember:
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ad.php?t=47089

It has been said to matter or be a factor in the game engine, but if so, how it works is not clear.

[Qwerty75]

Markus has said himself just recently that the batter pull/normal/spray rating is part of the game engine.

It's not hard for me to imagine how this might work: a batting event is determined to be a ball in play, then its direction is determined with a random number generator against the probabilities coded into the p/n/s settings. (The fielder for the BIP would also be affected by the pitcher's GB%, I'm guessing.) So, while there's no hierarchy of value for p/n/s that would make one better than the other, it I don't see how the conclusion that it has "no impact" or is "cosmetic" is valid. Its tangible effect on a batting event can be easily conceived, and isn't disproven by the results of the study given in the first post. A useful study to really detect if p/n/s does or does not have any effect in the game would test the rating against teams with defenses of varying ability in different thirds of the field, as it would primarily be a factor in BIP.

[Markus Heinsohn]

It determines where the batter hits the ball ... the performance is only determined by the ratings. By the way, the influence of the pull rating got increased in 6.5, it wasn't that big at all before

[RonCo]

I posted some additional data on this in the latest 6.5 update thread that supports the lack of a difference between Pull and Normal ...though I saw some variance with the Spray setting. My data set is focused on where the hitter actually hits the ball rather than wins and losses.

[Dan Theman]

Interesting - I always assumed there was a bit of a correlation that would make the players with significant power a bit more likely to be pull hitters and similarly less likely to be spray hitters.

It doesn't seem (from the outside looking in) too tough to do when generating amateurs. Any way this might be able to be added?

[kdawg]

Could we add infield and/or outfield shift for players who are pull hitters? This would be an exciting feature for version 7. This would add to the in-game management. Imagine if St. Louis Cardinals never had the shift on for Ted Williams in the '46 World Series. Red Sox nation would probably not need to wait 86 years for our first championship.

[jbmagic]

now that pull hitters will matter in 6.5

where is it best to play him at in the lineup?


and what the difference between spray, normal and pull?

will spray and normal matter too in 6.5?

thanks

[bulldog55]

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

It determines where the batter hits the ball ... the performance is only determined by the ratings.

I think this is the right way to implement it, actually, especially when you're talking historical sims. Ratings are ratings and if a 600-homerun hitter is rated as such but for one reason or another is labeled a spray hitter and winds up with 500 homers, that skews their expected performance.

[Qwerty75]

and what the difference between spray, normal and pull?

I wonder about the degree of the effect myself ...

Markus, would it be possible to divulge mean percentages for pull/up the middle/opposite field directions for each of the three settings? Or at least more insight to how each setting compares to the others?

This is the kind of feature that looks like it would be difficult to put together a good study on, because it requires manually tracking play-by-play data which the game's database doesn't compile right now. To get a large enough sample size to be meaningful, someone's going to have to spend *a lot* of time going through game logs ...

[gmo]

Originally Posted by Qwerty75

I wonder about the degree of the effect myself ...

Markus, would it be possible to divulge mean percentages for pull/up the middle/opposite field directions for each of the three settings? Or at least more insight to how each setting compares to the others?

This is the kind of feature that looks like it would be difficult to put together a good study on, because it requires manually tracking play-by-play data which the game's database doesn't compile right now. To get a large enough sample size to be meaningful, someone's going to have to spend *a lot* of time going through game logs ...

I looked at outs in the examination I linked above, and I looked at something that can be connected with hits - outfield assists: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ad.php?t=61938

Outs did not seem to show any influence from the hitter type rating, but hits (or at least outfield assists) definitely appeared to be affected by hitter type. I would be interested to know the rough distribution of direction of hits/outs by hitter type. I think that can be obtained by experiments and analysis like those I have linked.

I completely agree ratings should determine performance, but it does seem that there should be a correlation of some degree where the hitters with greater power talent/ratings will tend to be more likely to be pull hitters. That is already the case in the game, at least I think.

[Johnny Slick]

Originally Posted by kdawg

Could we add infield and/or outfield shift for players who are pull hitters? This would be an exciting feature for version 7. This would add to the in-game management. Imagine if St. Louis Cardinals never had the shift on for Ted Williams in the '46 World Series. Red Sox nation would probably not need to wait 86 years for our first championship.

Ah yes,the old "realism vs. accuracy" argument. Personally, I assume that the players automatically position themselves about the field wherever they will make the most impact in terms of causing outs. Remember that the stats that a lot of these ratings are being created from are the result of said player batting against Boudreau Shifts (in the case of Teddy Ballgame), OFers being shaded over to the player's batting side, 3rd basemen hugging the line to cut off a particular variety of hard grounder the hitter creates whenever he's given a fastball in on the wrists, etc. While I agree that adding in an "infield in" and "outfield in" function is proper, I'm somewhat against any other kind of in-game shift.

In Williams' case, ISTR reading about how, after teams started shifting way over on him, he started to kill them with bloop doubles hit the other way, which in turn would make them move back and allow him the conventional hit areas. In game terms, Williams is just a pull hitter and would continue to pull the ball even if you stuck 7 guys on that side of the field. In real life, he would adjust to the situation. Maybe this could be something added to version 11 or 12, but not 7.