Tim Raines

Long_Long_Name · 12-28-2004, 11:10 PM

Should he be in the Hall of Fame?

I saw this documentary about the end of the Expos tonight. Tim Rianes, as you knoe, is the guy I consider to have had the best career with the Expos. He was a coach for them this year. I really, really love that player, although I'm too young to have seen him play much. At the last Expos home game, he got an overwhelming ovation in the Big O, the biggest this city has seen since Saku Koivu came back after his cancer.

What do you guys think of him? Bill James lists him as the 2nd best leadoff man of all-time, after the Rickey.

Dwolfson20 · 12-28-2004, 11:13 PM

On career value, absolutely, but his peak value is a bit suspect. A borderline case, but I would probably vote for him.

Two most similiar players are HOFers Lou Brock and Max Carey.

LivnLegend · 12-28-2004, 11:23 PM

Tim Raines place in history is very underrated. Too bad about the drugs, that doesn't help his cause. Great player. Had a higher SB percentage than Rickey. Could have arguably been named the 1987 MVP instead of Dawson. Came back from lupus, even if it was only briefly. How great is that?

mlyons · 12-29-2004, 06:40 AM

I think he was a great player, but count me in the crowd that thinks there are too many people in the Hall of Fame already. He's close, but didn't have that sustained period of dominance that I'd like to see in a Hall of Famer. (Of course, this is without going back and checking his career numbers -- just thinking back on how I remember his career. My mind might change one way or the other when I go back and look at his stats.)

Spielman · 12-29-2004, 06:52 AM

Should he be in? No question. Will he get in? No.

He's got too many factors working against him.
1) Played his best seasons before the offensive explosion of the '90s.
2) The association with drugs drags him down.
3) Had the misfortune to play at the same time as Rickey Henderson, which deflected a lot of attention.
4) Had a higher stolen base percentage than the guys higher than him on the list, but people like counting stats, not success rates.

-Spielman

abailey3313 · 12-29-2004, 07:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

I think he was a great player, but count me in the crowd that thinks there are too many people in the Hall of Fame already. He's close, but didn't have that sustained period of dominance that I'd like to see in a Hall of Famer. (Of course, this is without going back and checking his career numbers -- just thinking back on how I remember his career. My mind might change one way or the other when I go back and look at his stats.)

I'm going to have to agree with this. Considering I haven't done any real research, and basing it just on what I know and remember, I don't think (if I had one), he'd get my vote.

rudel.dietrich · 12-29-2004, 07:24 AM

Jame said if you split Ricky in half you would have two HOFers.
If you split Raines I think you have 1.5
He deserves to go. Should not even be any sort of doubt at all.

Anachronism · 12-29-2004, 10:52 AM

Now you see... here is a name that brings back memories and an era of baseball to me! (this will make sense to anyone that read my reply to the Sandberg issue). Raines - Yes... ryne no...

Jason Moyer · 12-29-2004, 11:10 AM

Tim Raines would get my vote without hesitation. If he were inducted into the hall of fame, he'd easily be among the top 1/3 of those enshrined.

mlyons · 12-29-2004, 05:44 PM

Having had an opportunity to look over his career stats, I'm going to have to go with no, but just barely. I think he's better than a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame now, but I don't think they deserve to be in, either. Again, it's closer in my mind now than upon my first impulse, but I still don't quite see it.

TonyJ · 12-29-2004, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spielman

Should he be in? No question. Will he get in? No.

I agree 100% with this.

Gastric ReFlux · 12-29-2004, 05:47 PM

Tim Raines should be in.

Long_Long_Name · 12-29-2004, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

I think he's better than a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame now, but I don't think they deserve to be in, either. Again, it's closer in my mind now than upon my first impulse, but I still don't quite see it.

Well, isn't it better for the criteria to be the same for everyone?

mlyons · 12-29-2004, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Long_Long_Name

Well, isn't it better for the criteria to be the same for everyone?

No, it's better if everyone uses my criteria. If everyone else is wrong, why should I be wrong, too?

Dwolfson20 · 12-29-2004, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anachronism

Now you see... here is a name that brings back memories and an era of baseball to me! (this will make sense to anyone that read my reply to the Sandberg issue). Raines - Yes... ryne no...

Your logic both in that thread and in this one really baffles me. So instead of looking at statistics, or peak value dominance, we're just supposed to listen to the name and base our vote on whatever magic we conjure up in our head by hearing it?

Jason Moyer · 12-29-2004, 06:20 PM

I don't think people realize just how much offensive value Tim Raines added to his career with just speed (and that's not counting how that speed helped his glovework). Stolen bases tend to be overrated but there's no way you can overrate 808 steals at an 84% success rate.

.294 AVG
.281 SECA not counting SB+CS
.356 SECA including SB+CS

In terms of his career, 808 SB and 146 CS is the equivalent of walking an additional 665 times with the same number of plate appearances - in other words, if you replaced his speed with walks, his OBP would rise from .385 to .423.

If he had a .423 OBP with no steals, would we even be arguing his candidacy?

Edit: His 162 game averages were 52 SB vs 9 CS. Those are insane career averages, especially for someone who played until they were 42.

Jason

Crapshoot · 12-29-2004, 06:27 PM

What Moyer said. Raines is better than 40-50% of the hall as is. Career OPS+ of 123. a base stealer of actual value (look at the SB rate, and consider the lesser offensive environment of the 80's where a 60% rate would probably be break even), and an OBP heavy guy - he's not just good, he's damn good.

Crapshoot · 12-29-2004, 06:33 PM

Also, from 1981-1987, he was in the top 10 in the NL in OPS+ every year except 1982- that's remarkable for a "leadoff" hitter. Raines is everything Juan Pierre wishes he could be.

Anachronism · 12-29-2004, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dwolfson20

Your logic both in that thread and in this one really baffles me. So instead of looking at statistics, or peak value dominance, we're just supposed to listen to the name and base our vote on whatever magic we conjure up in our head by hearing it?

It is clear you don't understand... you say you are from Nebraska so I'll use the exact same example I did in the other thread, and hope you pick up on it this time.

It would be like trying to get into a really good college, you not only need the grades, but you also need the extra-curriculars.... get it?

Long_Long_Name · 12-29-2004, 07:37 PM

I disagree with your analogy.

However, I don't disagree with you reasoning. To you, the hall of fame is not for the objectively best players, but for those who marked their era in an intangible way, giving more value to emotion than ability. It's one way to look at it.

12-28-2004, 11:10 PM	#1
Long_Long_Name Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Montréal Posts: 7,065	Tim Raines Should he be in the Hall of Fame? I saw this documentary about the end of the Expos tonight. Tim Rianes, as you knoe, is the guy I consider to have had the best career with the Expos. He was a coach for them this year. I really, really love that player, although I'm too young to have seen him play much. At the last Expos home game, he got an overwhelming ovation in the Big O, the biggest this city has seen since Saku Koivu came back after his cancer. What do you guys think of him? Bill James lists him as the 2nd best leadoff man of all-time, after the Rickey. __________________ Beta Baseball. Join it!

12-28-2004, 11:13 PM	#2
Dwolfson20 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Not St. Louis Posts: 2,872	On career value, absolutely, but his peak value is a bit suspect. A borderline case, but I would probably vote for him. Two most similiar players are HOFers Lou Brock and Max Carey. __________________

12-28-2004, 11:23 PM	#3
LivnLegend Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: 100% pure adrenaline! Posts: 5,624	Tim Raines place in history is very underrated. Too bad about the drugs, that doesn't help his cause. Great player. Had a higher SB percentage than Rickey. Could have arguably been named the 1987 MVP instead of Dawson. Came back from lupus, even if it was only briefly. How great is that? __________________ Excess ain't rebellion. You're drinking what they're selling.

12-29-2004, 06:40 AM	#4
mlyons Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 3,725	I think he was a great player, but count me in the crowd that thinks there are too many people in the Hall of Fame already. He's close, but didn't have that sustained period of dominance that I'd like to see in a Hall of Famer. (Of course, this is without going back and checking his career numbers -- just thinking back on how I remember his career. My mind might change one way or the other when I go back and look at his stats.) __________________ Things can always be worse.

12-29-2004, 10:52 AM	#8
Anachronism All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Great White North Posts: 945	Now you see... here is a name that brings back memories and an era of baseball to me! (this will make sense to anyone that read my reply to the Sandberg issue). Raines - Yes... ryne no... __________________ "Ruth did it on Beer and Hotdogs..."

12-29-2004, 06:52 AM	#5
Spielman All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: South Carolina Posts: 1,668	Should he be in? No question. Will he get in? No. He's got too many factors working against him. 1) Played his best seasons before the offensive explosion of the '90s. 2) The association with drugs drags him down. 3) Had the misfortune to play at the same time as Rickey Henderson, which deflected a lot of attention. 4) Had a higher stolen base percentage than the guys higher than him on the list, but people like counting stats, not success rates. -Spielman

12-29-2004, 07:24 AM	#7
rudel.dietrich Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Zürich, Switzerland Posts: 8,608	Jame said if you split Ricky in half you would have two HOFers. If you split Raines I think you have 1.5 He deserves to go. Should not even be any sort of doubt at all.

12-29-2004, 11:10 AM	#9
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,108	Tim Raines would get my vote without hesitation. If he were inducted into the hall of fame, he'd easily be among the top 1/3 of those enshrined. __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech

12-29-2004, 05:44 PM	#10
mlyons Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 3,725	Having had an opportunity to look over his career stats, I'm going to have to go with no, but just barely. I think he's better than a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame now, but I don't think they deserve to be in, either. Again, it's closer in my mind now than upon my first impulse, but I still don't quite see it. __________________ Things can always be worse.

12-29-2004, 05:47 PM	#12
Gastric ReFlux Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Member #3409 Posts: 8,350	Tim Raines should be in.

12-29-2004, 06:20 PM	#16
Jason Moyer Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 5,108	I don't think people realize just how much offensive value Tim Raines added to his career with just speed (and that's not counting how that speed helped his glovework). Stolen bases tend to be overrated but there's no way you can overrate 808 steals at an 84% success rate. .294 AVG .281 SECA not counting SB+CS .356 SECA including SB+CS In terms of his career, 808 SB and 146 CS is the equivalent of walking an additional 665 times with the same number of plate appearances - in other words, if you replaced his speed with walks, his OBP would rise from .385 to .423. If he had a .423 OBP with no steals, would we even be arguing his candidacy? Edit: His 162 game averages were 52 SB vs 9 CS. Those are insane career averages, especially for someone who played until they were 42. Jason __________________ "I pretty much popped everything cold turkey. We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses." -- Tom House "I was very fortunate to have a pitching coach by the name of Tom House...Tom, I really miss those days that we spent in the weight room and out on the field working together." -- Nolan Ryan's HoF Induction Speech Last edited by Jason Moyer; 12-29-2004 at 06:23 PM.

12-29-2004, 06:27 PM	#17
Crapshoot Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: watching: DArwin's missing link in action Posts: 3,112	What Moyer said. Raines is better than 40-50% of the hall as is. Career OPS+ of 123. a base stealer of actual value (look at the SB rate, and consider the lesser offensive environment of the 80's where a 60% rate would probably be break even), and an OBP heavy guy - he's not just good, he's damn good. __________________ Senior Senor Member of the OOTP Boards Pittsburgh Playmates- OTBL

12-29-2004, 06:33 PM	#18
Crapshoot Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: watching: DArwin's missing link in action Posts: 3,112	Also, from 1981-1987, he was in the top 10 in the NL in OPS+ every year except 1982- that's remarkable for a "leadoff" hitter. Raines is everything Juan Pierre wishes he could be. __________________ Senior Senor Member of the OOTP Boards Pittsburgh Playmates- OTBL

12-29-2004, 07:37 PM	#20
Long_Long_Name Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Montréal Posts: 7,065	I disagree with your analogy. However, I don't disagree with you reasoning. To you, the hall of fame is not for the objectively best players, but for those who marked their era in an intangible way, giving more value to emotion than ability. It's one way to look at it. __________________ Beta Baseball. Join it!