Gehrig-like decline

crict · 11-01-2004, 11:43 PM

I just wanted to share a very quick decline I had on one of my team.

One of my outfielder, at 33, was around 60/70/60/100 on a 0-100 scale. After 4 straight 900+ ops seasons, he had an inexplicably weak season, ,769 ops.

The next year, he starts hot, than talent drops one after the other, tough second half, but still a 830 ops.

That this year, at 35, quite amazing. He started the year around 40/50/40/90.

Up to mid-May, he already had 7 talent drops, but I somehow got someone to claim him and his 22 million overs 2 2/3 years.

It's mid season now and his ratings are : 26/31/2/59. He has a 606 OPS in 206 AB, and that includes a 770 month of April.

That's quite a quick way to decline. He's listed as durable, and no injuries were involved in his decline.

I made no changes to parameters whatsoever

It's cool if the game is able to produce such decline, but only in small numbers. Is this case extreme or quite common in the game and in real life?

ctorg · 11-02-2004, 09:41 AM

It used to be more common in the game than now. Everyone used to have that kind of decline.

In truth, a lot of players do have that sort of curve. Others here have done some studies of it.

EdGien · 11-02-2004, 04:35 PM

perhaps he had an undetected injury that caused the decline

Deitrus · 11-02-2004, 06:11 PM

Another reason why I love this game so much.

Really, I love that this sim is unpredictable, ect. IMO it shows how realistic this sim really is. Sure it has some flaws/issues but OOTP is a great sim.

Dagrims · 11-02-2004, 06:39 PM

OOTP doesn't know ALS, just ratings.

William4192 · 11-03-2004, 04:36 PM

Very cool results.

Vezna31 · 11-03-2004, 09:58 PM

Age 35 is definitely when things go sour. I've seen it on a few occasions now.

crict · 11-03-2004, 10:44 PM

Is it seen more often on players with "old players skills", like my player?

Great at drawing walks, some power, quite low average (,261 career), around 100 K per year. However he had a little speed and almost always had double digits SB, although at a very poor sucess rate.

Defensively he was okay, with ratings of 5 out of 10 at all 3 outfield positions and an average arm.

Looking at my Catobase history, there's at least one similar, if not worse, case.

A 3-time MVP, at age 34, had ratings of 84/54/85/97.
The next year, he was down at 33/29/10/56. Still had a decent season (843 OPS, but down from 1042).
At 36, he was at 7/27/10/53

There was a 4-week injury to a broken hand at 35.

It's only two cases, but for both it was a huge all-around drop at first, with power particularly hurt, than only contact continues to decline quickly.

Anyone seen it on a player before 35?

William4192 · 11-04-2004, 08:28 AM

Rarely before 35.

Vezna31 · 11-04-2004, 01:20 PM

I've never seen a player's ratings deteriorate before 35, but if you start a historical leage and you have a player over 35, that will be his last good year, so it's a good idea to put him on waivers if he has a big contract. I had a 40 year old guy it .302 and his ratings went from the high 50's to 20's over the offseason after i signed him to a 2 year $3M extension. needless to say, he became waiver-meat and some dumb computer GM claimed him and relieved me of the contract.

PhilyMouth · 11-04-2004, 04:52 PM

Maybe he should visit a certain science lab in Cali for some help.

Vezna31 · 11-07-2004, 02:33 PM

Just to give an example of the 35 year old decline, Earl Webb of my 1931 A's team started out the 1933 season as the 1932 batting champion with a .409 average with the following ratings: 82,96,51 and broken down as follows:

Contact - 75, 87 Talent - 76
Gap - 93, 99 Talent - 89
Power - 50, 52 Talent - 50

By the end of JUNE, his ratings were: 53, 59, 5.

Contact - 47, 56 Talent - 51
Gap - 55, 61 Talent - 60
Power - 3, 6 Talent - 11

We are talking MAJOR decline. He had a $5.9M contract expiring this year. I was not about to resign him as his stats were falling almost as fast as the ratings. He hit .473 with 20 doubles in April, .410 with 9 doubles in May, and .287 with 6 doubles in June. The coincidental thing is that Earl Webb in real life retired after the 1933 season. I figured it was time to make a move while he still had some value. Unbelievably, the Red Sox agreed to trade 20 year old 5-star prospect LF Vance Zhou and $6.9M in cash with Talent ratings of 78, 65, 70. I thought the trade was a no-brainer and the kid is now developing in Double-A.

Personally, I think the decline is a little too extreme, especially for some superstars. The same thing happened to Ruth the previous season in 1932. I don't think it should start declining rapidly until 38 or 39 years. Just my

William4192 · 11-07-2004, 02:38 PM

I think the decline is a little too extreme. I think the decline should be gradual over a few seasons. Over a couple of seasons, a guy could go from a .310 hitter to a .260 hitter. It is silly to see a guy decline that much in a month. Now, with that said, I think they should be more prone to injury as they get older. Another feature, I've never heard spoken about before, is their weight should go up as they age (thus slowing them down). Some guys, gym rats, should increase their weight slower. A guy like Boog Powell, declined (in my eyes), more to his weight than anything (same thing to Babe).

DaveDingman · 11-07-2004, 02:51 PM

To be fair, Gehrig declined so quickly because he had ALS.

William4192 · 11-07-2004, 03:03 PM

Very true, but even though it was a disease (and I don't want to be disrespectful), it could be called an "injury".

Vezna31 · 11-07-2004, 03:21 PM

Another example is Jim Eisenreich from my '93 Phillies. I don't have all the original ratings, but he ended 1993 with a 70 contact and had hit .362. At the end of May in 1994, his contact is at 47 and he's hitting .298. He hit .316 in April and .259 in May. Guess how old he is...yep...35. Waiver time if I can't trade him!!

11-01-2004, 11:43 PM	#1
crict Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 37	Gehrig-like decline I just wanted to share a very quick decline I had on one of my team. One of my outfielder, at 33, was around 60/70/60/100 on a 0-100 scale. After 4 straight 900+ ops seasons, he had an inexplicably weak season, ,769 ops. The next year, he starts hot, than talent drops one after the other, tough second half, but still a 830 ops. That this year, at 35, quite amazing. He started the year around 40/50/40/90. Up to mid-May, he already had 7 talent drops, but I somehow got someone to claim him and his 22 million overs 2 2/3 years. It's mid season now and his ratings are : 26/31/2/59. He has a 606 OPS in 206 AB, and that includes a 770 month of April. That's quite a quick way to decline. He's listed as durable, and no injuries were involved in his decline. I made no changes to parameters whatsoever It's cool if the game is able to produce such decline, but only in small numbers. Is this case extreme or quite common in the game and in real life?

11-02-2004, 09:41 AM	#2
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 9,848	It used to be more common in the game than now. Everyone used to have that kind of decline. In truth, a lot of players do have that sort of curve. Others here have done some studies of it. __________________ My music "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

11-02-2004, 04:35 PM	#3
EdGien Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Plainfield, WI Posts: 70	perhaps he had an undetected injury that caused the decline __________________ my man hand is reaching for your unit

11-02-2004, 06:39 PM	#5
Dagrims Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Orlando, FL Posts: 3,827	OOTP doesn't know ALS, just ratings. __________________ "Read books, get brain."

11-03-2004, 04:36 PM	#6
William4192 All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Florida Posts: 1,625	Very cool results. __________________ What is this about Rhode Island? It is neither Road or Island. Come check out the PBA. http://www.pioneerbaseballassociation.com Or email at pbacommish@pioneerbaseballassociation.com

11-02-2004, 06:11 PM	#4
Deitrus All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: United States Posts: 535	Another reason why I love this game so much. Really, I love that this sim is unpredictable, ect. IMO it shows how realistic this sim really is. Sure it has some flaws/issues but OOTP is a great sim.

11-03-2004, 09:58 PM	#7
Vezna31 All Star Starter Join Date: May 2004 Location: Wherever My VPN says Posts: 1,990	Age 35 is definitely when things go sour. I've seen it on a few occasions now.

11-03-2004, 10:44 PM	#8
crict Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 37	Is it seen more often on players with "old players skills", like my player? Great at drawing walks, some power, quite low average (,261 career), around 100 K per year. However he had a little speed and almost always had double digits SB, although at a very poor sucess rate. Defensively he was okay, with ratings of 5 out of 10 at all 3 outfield positions and an average arm. Looking at my Catobase history, there's at least one similar, if not worse, case. A 3-time MVP, at age 34, had ratings of 84/54/85/97. The next year, he was down at 33/29/10/56. Still had a decent season (843 OPS, but down from 1042). At 36, he was at 7/27/10/53 There was a 4-week injury to a broken hand at 35. It's only two cases, but for both it was a huge all-around drop at first, with power particularly hurt, than only contact continues to decline quickly. Anyone seen it on a player before 35?

11-04-2004, 08:28 AM	#9
William4192 All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Florida Posts: 1,625	Rarely before 35. __________________ What is this about Rhode Island? It is neither Road or Island. Come check out the PBA. http://www.pioneerbaseballassociation.com Or email at pbacommish@pioneerbaseballassociation.com

11-04-2004, 01:20 PM	#10
Vezna31 All Star Starter Join Date: May 2004 Location: Wherever My VPN says Posts: 1,990	I've never seen a player's ratings deteriorate before 35, but if you start a historical leage and you have a player over 35, that will be his last good year, so it's a good idea to put him on waivers if he has a big contract. I had a 40 year old guy it .302 and his ratings went from the high 50's to 20's over the offseason after i signed him to a 2 year $3M extension. needless to say, he became waiver-meat and some dumb computer GM claimed him and relieved me of the contract.

11-04-2004, 04:52 PM	#11
PhilyMouth Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2002 Location: Queens Posts: 106	Maybe he should visit a certain science lab in Cali for some help.

11-07-2004, 02:33 PM	#12
Vezna31 All Star Starter Join Date: May 2004 Location: Wherever My VPN says Posts: 1,990	Just to give an example of the 35 year old decline, Earl Webb of my 1931 A's team started out the 1933 season as the 1932 batting champion with a .409 average with the following ratings: 82,96,51 and broken down as follows: Contact - 75, 87 Talent - 76 Gap - 93, 99 Talent - 89 Power - 50, 52 Talent - 50 By the end of JUNE, his ratings were: 53, 59, 5. Contact - 47, 56 Talent - 51 Gap - 55, 61 Talent - 60 Power - 3, 6 Talent - 11 We are talking MAJOR decline. He had a $5.9M contract expiring this year. I was not about to resign him as his stats were falling almost as fast as the ratings. He hit .473 with 20 doubles in April, .410 with 9 doubles in May, and .287 with 6 doubles in June. The coincidental thing is that Earl Webb in real life retired after the 1933 season. I figured it was time to make a move while he still had some value. Unbelievably, the Red Sox agreed to trade 20 year old 5-star prospect LF Vance Zhou and $6.9M in cash with Talent ratings of 78, 65, 70. I thought the trade was a no-brainer and the kid is now developing in Double-A. Personally, I think the decline is a little too extreme, especially for some superstars. The same thing happened to Ruth the previous season in 1932. I don't think it should start declining rapidly until 38 or 39 years. Just my

11-07-2004, 02:38 PM	#13
William4192 All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Florida Posts: 1,625	I think the decline is a little too extreme. I think the decline should be gradual over a few seasons. Over a couple of seasons, a guy could go from a .310 hitter to a .260 hitter. It is silly to see a guy decline that much in a month. Now, with that said, I think they should be more prone to injury as they get older. Another feature, I've never heard spoken about before, is their weight should go up as they age (thus slowing them down). Some guys, gym rats, should increase their weight slower. A guy like Boog Powell, declined (in my eyes), more to his weight than anything (same thing to Babe). __________________ What is this about Rhode Island? It is neither Road or Island. Come check out the PBA. http://www.pioneerbaseballassociation.com Or email at pbacommish@pioneerbaseballassociation.com

11-07-2004, 02:51 PM	#14
DaveDingman Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 26	To be fair, Gehrig declined so quickly because he had ALS. __________________ Texans rule and so do their sports!

11-07-2004, 03:03 PM	#15
William4192 All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Florida Posts: 1,625	Very true, but even though it was a disease (and I don't want to be disrespectful), it could be called an "injury". __________________ What is this about Rhode Island? It is neither Road or Island. Come check out the PBA. http://www.pioneerbaseballassociation.com Or email at pbacommish@pioneerbaseballassociation.com

11-07-2004, 03:21 PM	#16
Vezna31 All Star Starter Join Date: May 2004 Location: Wherever My VPN says Posts: 1,990	Another example is Jim Eisenreich from my '93 Phillies. I don't have all the original ratings, but he ended 1993 with a 70 contact and had hit .362. At the end of May in 1994, his contact is at 47 and he's hitting .298. He hit .316 in April and .259 in May. Guess how old he is...yep...35. Waiver time if I can't trade him!!