Active Player HOF Debate: Third Base (poll included)

[holyroller]

Locks

None

Possible

Edgardo Alfonzo - Good defender, very underrated hitter. Has spent his career in two extreme pitcher's parks and has produced very good stats regardless. Not in, or close, as yet, but is still just 30 so he could make it. Career trend does not look promising, however.

Adrian Beltre - Has the talent, but so far the production has been wholy insuficient. My guess is a big huge no, but certainly could surprise.

Eric Chavez - I do my best to avoid the peril of expectation, but to me Eric Chavez is as certain a future HOF as anyone who at the moment lacks the necessary qualifications. Great defensive player and already a fine hitter who is just 26 years old and should only get better. Walk rate and power should imrpove with age and are already more than acceptable. Like Billy Beane, apparently, I think Chavez is a total stud and think he will end up just below the Schmidt/Brett class at the position. I realize how much projection and "shoulds" are involved here, but to me everything about the guy screams HOF.

Troy Glaus - Has the talent and already has one MVP-level and two very good seasons under his belt. Still has much to accomplish and injuries are a big concern. I think he is a great player and wouldn't be surprised to see him end up in, but I also have very serious doubts.

Chipper Jones - A very interesting case. From 1996 to the present he has been a fantastic hitter, but his defense at third was so undeniably awful that it detracts greatly from his value. Right now, he would not get my vote despite the OBP that I love and plus power to boot. However, he is still just 32 and has at least 4-5 seasons to improve his chances.

Corey Koskie - As with most at this position, he has a chance, but has a whole lot of work yet to do. One average year, four good seasons, 30 years old and still a long way to go.

Mike Lowell - Four good seasons under his belt and has a fabulous start on a fifth, but still has a long way to go and is already 30. My guess is that he won't be in, but has a shot.

Edgar Martinez - Best included here despite the fact that he hasn't played an inning at the position since 1996 and has not been a regular here since '92. Opinions of him will be largely dependent on how you feel about the DH question. My position is that he is in, right now, but I have a sinking feeling he will not actually make it. The Mariners screwed him over by keeping him in AAA in favor of Jim Presley (CHRIST!!!) long after he was ready and his predeliction for injury moved him off third, but he has been a superlative hitter since day one. Thanks to the stupidity of Mariners management, his career counting stats are unimpressive, but his rate stats are so damned good. 101.2 WARP3 and a .423 career OBP push me well over the borderline. Has my vote in a second, but I doubt he will actually get in.

Aramis Ramirez - Hard to believe, but still just 25 and just now entering his prime. So far, his 2001 and 2003 campaigns are his only good seasons (and they were far from great) and needs a whole lot more to get in, but should get some consideration regardless.

Scott Rolen - Not in yet but, like Chavez, will be barring something unforseen. Just 29 and already more than halfway there. Superb defender and hitter, only needs time.

Hank Blalock also has a good shot, but at 23 and with just one full season under his belt he still has a ton of work ahead of him. No doubting that he has HOF talent, however.

[dougaiton]

Edgar yes, for plenty of reasons!

The rest don't stand out. The two who might make it (purely subjectively) are Chavez and Glaus. After his first three years, I thought it would be Glaus that broke Aaron's 711, reasoning, not unreasonably, that he would get better. Now, I think Chavez has the best chance. I think Chipper may have missed his window of opportunity. Rolen is a great player, but not a HOF, probably.

[holyroller]

Originally Posted by dougaiton

Rolen is a great player, but not a HOF, probably.

How so dude?

He's 29 and already:

a) Has five gold gloves (which are backed up by available fielding metrics)
b) Has 209 home runs
c) Has a career .376 OBP

Barring significant injury (his chronic back problems are a concern) or a shocking drop-off, he should be a first-ballot lock.

[Skipaway]

I do believe Scott Rolen would be in the hall some day, but you got to realize Ron Santo did more than Scott Rolen at the same stage of his career.

[holyroller]

Originally Posted by Skipaway

I do believe Scott Rolen would be in the hall some day, but you got to realize Ron Santo did more than Scott Rolen at the same stage of his career.

Right, but I also think Ron Santo is a no-brainer HOF. While Santo, for some inexplicable reason, was not and is not viewed as the great player he was, Rolen is universaly regarded as the best third baseman in baseball and has been for a while.

[disposableheros]

well yea, if they all had 5-10 more great seasons theyre in

but if career-ender tomorrow, none --- this is what i vote

edgar is the only one on the fence, to me if your a DH your stats have to be MILES above the guys who field or you dont make it and IMO his arent MILES above, just YARDS

[holyroller]

Originally Posted by disposableheros

well yea, if they all had 5-10 more great seasons theyre in

but if career-ender tomorrow, none --- this is what i vote

edgar is the only one on the fence, to me if your a DH your stats have to be MILES above the guys who field or you dont make it and IMO his arent MILES above, just YARDS

Using the career-ender tomorrow standard, Edgar is the only one who receives my vote. Including my best guesses on what will happen, I also included Chipper, Chavez and Rolen.

[Skipaway]

Among active players, Edgar Martinez's OPS+ is only behind Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazze, and Jason Giambi.

I don't think being a DH is all that bad, considering how many great hitters got no or negative fielding values.

[dougaiton]

I made an outlandish statement, and now you want me to justify it??!?

Rolen has only been twice voted into the all-star team. Now, that means bugger-all, but it does imply the fanbase don't consider him the top 3B of the last 10 years. Rolen has never made a top ten in any rate category.

Rolen is a better hitter than Brooks Robinson, and (for his era) as dominant defensively. But with Chavez on the horizon, will that be enough?

If Rolen follows the path of his offensive 'similar player' (I know, its a reach), Gary Sheffield, then he's a no-doubter. But the fact that he's never been one of the top offensive players in the league, and while great defensively he doesn't have the legend that Smith, Mazerowski or Robinson have. That's not going to sit well with a panel of voters who don't reckon Ron Santo, Alan Trammell or Lou Whitaker are hall-worthy.

[mlyons]

Alex Rodriguez.

[holyroller]

Originally Posted by mlyons

Alex Rodriguez.

Is a SS

[disposableheros]

hmmmm, sit on the bench and wait for my turn to hit or run around the field and expend my energy then hit

i choose b

[Boozie1580]

Originally Posted by disposableheros

hmmmm, sit on the bench and wait for my turn to hit or run around the field and expend my energy then hit

i choose b

[jaxmagicman]

I agree with you HR. Rolen, Chavez and Martinez, but mylons did bring up a good point, A-Rod is a 3B now, is he going to bet in as a SS or 3B? Only time will tell.

[kingcharlesxii]

I voted for Edgar, Chipper and Rolen. The problem with major league 3B right now is that none of them have played long enough really to warrant HOF consideration. Edgar is a DH really but I suspect he'll get in. If Chipper continues playing as he has so far, he'll end up with 2500-3000 hits and 400-500 homeruns to go with a career 143 OPS+. That's HOF material in my book.

Rolen is a tougher call since he's relatively young and a lot could happen yet in his career. I'm projecting he won't end up with as many hits as Chipper will but should have more power and is a far superior fielder.

The other guys such as Chavez are too young to even be thinking about right now.

[MrWorkrate]

As it stands right now, for third basemen, it's only Rolen and Chavez, and both could very easily fall off that track.

While Edgar and Chipper both deserve HoF consideration for their offensive contributions, Edgar doesn't get my vote here because he doesn't deserve to be considered a Hall of Famer as a third baseman. Edgar was the M's full time third baseman for only three seasons. While he is definately one of the best hitters of the 90s, to label him a third baseman in general isn't accurate.

Chipper, if he retired today, I would consider a third baseman. However, considering he's an outfielder now and assuming that he likely will be for the remainder of his career (unless he moves to first), he more than likely will finish his career with more games played as an outfielder than a third baseman. Can't consider him.

[Kaline]

Rolen is a no-brainer IMHO. He may be one of the top defensive third baseman ever, and easily the best of our era. I know defence often gets overlooked, but hes a great fielder too.

As well as a career OPS of .893 including a.376 OBP.

I agree on Chavez, Martinez, Glaus

But I also put Chipper in. Career OPS over .900, career BA of .306, career OBP over .400 and should hit 400 HRs. Plus, he gets a little boost by being a catalyst to those Braves teams. Plus a career OPS of 143 with a high of 175. Has an MVP, 5 all-star games

I think Blalock has a great shot, but I didn't vote for him (too early).

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by kingcharlesxii

If Chipper continues playing as he has so far, he'll end up with 2500-3000 hits and 400-500 homeruns to go with a career 143 OPS+. That's HOF material in my book.

Perhaps you should calculate how many years does it take for him to reach the level you suggested. He's already 32 and in decline for three years. He's pretty marginal.

[kingcharlesxii]

Originally Posted by Skipaway

Perhaps you should calculate how many years does it take for him to reach the level you suggested. He's already 32 and in decline for three years. He's pretty marginal.

Man, you must have a harsh definition of decline.

His stats last two years (this year he has been injured and he was putting up typical numbers before the injury)

2002: .327 BA, .435 OBP, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 155 OPS+
2003: .305 BA, .405 OBP, 27 HR, 106 RBI, 141 OPS+

[ctorg]

I only picked Edgar Martinez, but I could see Rolen making it. Chipper has an outside chance if he puts up some more MVP years. The others are all either have too little playing time to make any more than a guess or are not going to make it in my eyes.