An interesting article on player aging...

[Henry]

http://www.baseballnotebook.com/essa...20on%20Hitting

[Henry]

Since no one commeted, I thought I would point out what caught my attention....

A hitter's batting average ability typically should peak at twenty-four.

A hitter's ability to to hit doubles typically should peak at twenty-four.

A hitter's ability to hit triples typically should peak at twenty-one (meaning most hitters experience their triples peak while still in the minors and thus achieve their eventual major league career high in triples much later than the peak of the same skill).

A hitter's home run skill should typically peak at twenty-six (which may back up the popular "26 with experience" theory).

A hitter's ability to take walks typically should peak at thirty-five (really!).

A hitter's ability to avoid striking out typically should peak at twenty-nine.

A hitter's ability to steal bases typically should peak at twenty-three.

Based on these conclusions, which are taken by averaging all MLB players across 100 seasons, it appears justified that teams would begin to watch for "kinks in the armour" by the mid-30s... that anything you get out of a player after 35 is gravy. Yes, of course, a small group of players play into their 40s effectively - but it IS the exception to the rule based on history - and it is NOT at thier peak performance.

One other thing I think we need to accept - but is rarely mentioned... it is, at least, more then just a suspicion that recent players in the 40+ club have used steroids to accomplish what they have. I know that is arguementative - but we know for a fact that at least some of these players have done so - skewing what we think as "normal".

Henry

[clarnzz]

Originally posted by Henry
Since no one commeted, I thought I would point out what caught my attention....



Based on these conclusions, which are taken by averaging all MLB players across 100 seasons, it appears justified that teams would begin to watch for "kinks in the armour" by the mid-30s... that anything you get out of a player after 35 is gravy. Yes, of course, a small group of players play into their 40s effectively - but it IS the exception to the rule based on history - and it is NOT at thier peak performance.

One other thing I think we need to accept - but is rarely mentioned... it is, at least, more then just a suspicion that recent players in the 40+ club have used steroids to accomplish what they have. I know that is arguementative - but we know for a fact that at least some of these players have done so - skewing what we think as "normal".

Henry

I also think dietary advances, better training programs and medical advancements can also be credited for making the current players careers longer.

I would imagine there is a definate trend pointing towards modern era players producing longer careers than in the past. I would rather not play my 2003 league and have my players development based on the average career 100 years ago, or play 100 years ago and have it based off of now. I am glad that Markus has opened the door for customized player development and aging as I am pretty certain it is something that hasn't remained constant over time.

[swampdragon]

An interesting article, particularly in view of the fact that a lot of decent players now are still in the minors at 24. From experience and what I thought I knew, I would have added a couple of years to all of those ages, but looking back at the great players pre World War II, it does appear that they peak at ages 24-26 rather than 26-28 as I believed. I would seriously question whether that's true today. With the exception of the really good players, most don't have enough major league experience to hit their stride by age 24.

[Brick]

I don't think that's too far off from the conventional wisdom. However, I think you may get a different outcome with all players, rather than great players. I've seen studies where superstars peak at 26-28. Lesser players might appear to peak at 24-26, but teams have decided these guys aren't regular major leaguers and reduce their playing time. The lesser players may well peak at 26-28 if we had a full career to watch them play, but that level of peak is not good enough to stay in the majors.

[sporr]

I would be interested to see some kind of trending done to see how these averages have changed over the years.

[Henry]

Originally posted by sporr
I would be interested to see some kind of trending done to see how these averages have changed over the years.

You wish is my command :-)

(not really, but this does address your question)

http://www.baseballprimer.com/articl...-10-29_0.shtml

[KurtBevacqua]

I'm wondering if the study on BA might be more dependent on speed getting down to first base than actual ability to get wood on the ball. We see and agree that speed numbers are definitely age related. Wouldn't it stand to reason that losing a step on the basepaths at would lead to decreased batting averages after the age of 26? I'm not saying that is the entire reason for this study's conclusions, but it certainly must be a part of it. I'm not sure though what variables you could use to test the hypothesis.

[swampdragon]

I think you have to be right about the relationship between BA and speed. That means a Mantle/Cobb type should peak earlier than a high BA slugger (Ruth, Gehrig, Hornsby et al.) who was not particularly known for his speed. Good research hypothesis.

[legendsport]

Interesting read. Like most, I always thought (not having actually done research myself) that players tend to peak at 27 or 28.

One thing about the speed-average correlation - guys who hit a lot of groundballs would obviously fall into that category more than a guy who hits line drives or an uppercutting slugger. So I think that the correlation is there, but the degree of its effect will certainly vary from hitter to hitter.

Interestingly, Gehrig, though not particularly fast, always had a decent number of triples because he hit the ball so hard it would sprint into the enormous gaps at Yankee Stadium and he'd be on third by the time the outfielders got the ball back - if Cobb had hit the ball as hard as Gehrig he would have had 15 inside the park homers each year.

And Ruth, though by no means a speedster actually was fairly quick in his younger years and stole a fair amount of bases.

[Brick]

And Ruth, though by no means a speedster actually was fairly quick in his younger years and stole a fair amount of bases.

Also, in the 1920s and 1930s, there was more base stealing and taking an extra base than was worth the risk. There was still a lot of residual deadball strategy left in the managers.