How Do Prospect Ratings Change?

[Larryk007]

Playing for several years now, and I get the development of players overall rating, i.e. underlining ratings, coaches, age, TCR. But I do not understand how prospect ratings change.
I draft a player with Prospect ratings of 70, and that player over the years usually develops into close to that as overall rating.
I draft a player with a Prospect rating of 20, and that player usually never develops into anything at the MLB level.
But I have now seen Prospect rating 20 player(s) improve their Prospect Ratings to MLB 50 or 60, and overall ratings pretty close.
So, how does Prospect Ratings improve over time?

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Originally Posted by Larryk007

Playing for several years now, and I get the development of players overall rating, i.e. underlining ratings, coaches, age, TCR. But I do not understand how prospect ratings change.
I draft a player with Prospect ratings of 70, and that player over the years usually develops into close to that as overall rating.
I draft a player with a Prospect rating of 20, and that player usually never develops into anything at the MLB level.
But I have now seen Prospect rating 20 player(s) improve their Prospect Ratings to MLB 50 or 60, and overall ratings pretty close.
So, how does Prospect Ratings improve over time?

I have popcorn at the ready, i am hoping this stimulates a lot of responses from the experienced 'OOTPtimers' so i can hopefully glean some insights on this too.

I have long struggled with trying to make reliable sense of it...but then after hours sitting cross-legged on a mountain peak i think i got clarity ... 'You're not meant to make 100 reliable sense of it'

I seem to be doing better and am reconciling that when i anchor my analysis at a high level philosophy of 'how/what i use to interpret or predict how and where a prospects ratings may improve over time' and simultaneously be prepared to accept some ambiguity if not outright contradiction at times.
Kind of like the 'i before e' 'rule', that whilst we all parrot- we also simultaneously know that it just doesn't hold true in enough circumstances to be truly reliable canon - but its a decent net for a general guide.

Keen to hear others views, or corrections to anything i have outright gotten wrong - i am defo not an expert!

[panda234]

I’m no expert, but I would assume there is some kind of RNG in there, as in real life. There are things you can do to muck up player development, some things will make it improve or at least allow it to improve, and some ups and downs you have no control over. I’ve seen mid prospects become superstars and I guarantee you it wasn’t because of anything I did.

[OutS|der]

TCR generally speaking is more about how much the potential rating changes. So with TCR off, the player will likely keep a roughly 200 potential rating through his career. (With TCR on, that value will drop or change).
TCR and Dev Lab are the main changes to potential.

[Pelican]

There are several robust threads that delve into the details of how development works and prospect ratings change accordingly. At some point, it is too much "under the hood" insight into the workings of the game, at least for me (not a programmer). Suffice to say there are multiple factors affecting how a prospect is rated, and they are all subject to change over time, at least until the prospect stops being a prospect.

Scouting accuracy is important, as is resources devoted to scouting.

Your TCR setting will directly affect how "unpredictable" the process of development is.

Remember that IRL only a small fraction of even the best prospects make it to MLB at all, and a tiny fraction are stars. Development can be frustrating.

Also as IRL, injuries play a major role, particularly for pitchers and catchers.

There are also threads on how to actively manage your minor league system, when to advance your best prospects, what level of play matches their development. It's art and science.

In Game Settings you can adjust the rate at which (all) prospects advance, from the default setting of 1.00. I typically increase that number to 1.15 or even 1.25. It doesn't make anyone better. It means whatever is going to happen, happens faster.

One approach I take - not favored by all - is to focus on college players, rather than the "prep" or high school prospect. The gap in OOTP between Potential and Current ability should be less at 22 than at 18. A good SEC player is probably ready for AAA, and not far from MLB. A good high school player will need to progress through four or five levels of minor leagues.

On the other hand, I am an active participant in the international draft, even though those players can be as young as sixteen, and thus far from the major leagues. To me, there is higher quality in this sample, with more potential superstars, than in the amateur draft. But it's a gamble, a calculated risk, that requires active and thorough scouting, and then four to seven years of nurturing the player.

As in all else OOTP, there is no right or wrong way.