Crazy bad All-Star selection for pitcher

[uruguru]

This is a common problem in OOTP that is easy to overlook if you're not paying attention.

Most importantly, this is not a "Wins vs WAR vs FIP" argument. This is about an objectively bad pick by any metric you want to choose.

The first image is of the NL All-Star selections (just the pitchers).

You will see Dick Ellsworth of the Cubs selected. He has a 5-11 record (terrible), 4.57 ERA (bad) and 2.8 WAR (decent). This is not a "Cubs only player" selection as you can clearly see two other Cub pitchers were selected. He was not the leading vote-getter for starting pitchers (he was 2nd, over 100,000 votes behind Koufax)

The second image is a listing of all MLB starters, ranked by WAR

The following fifteen NL pitchers all ranked higher in WAR, ERA, FIP and W-L record (pick your metric) than Ellsworth and were not selected. This includes two of Ellsworth's teammates. He is literally the 3rd-best starter on his team.

Larry Jackson, CHC, 11-8. 4.10 ERA, 4.9 WAR
Chris Short, PHI, 10-11, 4.06 ERA, 4.5 WAR - #4 in WAR
Bob Veale, PIT, 11-8, 3.61 ERA, 4.2 WAR
Jim Owens, CIN, 9-8, 4.80 ERA, 4.2 WAR - #2 in FIP
Don Drysdale, LA, 11-8, 3.07 ERA, 4.1 WAR - #5 in ERA
Bob Friend, PIT, 10-9, 4.18 ERA, 4.0 WAR
Ken Johnson, CIN, 15-4, 3.40 ERA, 3.9 WAR - #1 in Wins
Jim O'Toole, CIN, 13-6, 3.10 ERA, 3.8 WAR
Ron Herbel, SF, 7-9, 3.80 ERA, 3.6 WAR
Gaylord Perry, HOU, 10-7, 3.82 ERA, 3.4 WAR
Curt Simmons, STL, 8-10, 3.97 ERA, 3.4 WAR
Lew Burdette, CHC, 6-10, 4.01 ERA, 3.3 WAR
Jim Bunning, PHI, 7-12, 4.17 ERA, 3.0 WAR
Bob Gibson, STL, 10-13, 4.15 ERA, 3.0 WAR
Jack Sanford, SF, 6-6, 3.43 ERA, 3.0 WAR


This is why in an another post I mentioned that the game is bad at evaluating pitchers so I always have to keep a close eye on the All-Star selections and playoff rotations, and manually correct them. It's annoying, and sometimes these selections are so off it's hard to just write them off as a difference of opinion about metrics.

If the devs think this is a problem worth fixing, I have this saved off right before the game makes the selections.

[Bobfather]

What is his popularity? That might affect fan voting.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by Bobfather

What is his popularity? That might affect fan voting.

Great question!

The top vote-getters for NL starting pitchers, with their national popularity:

1. Sandy Koufax: 369,400 "Extremely Popular"
2. Dick Ellsworth: 262,898 "Well Known"
3. Turk Farrell: 256,226 "Well Known"
4. Jim O'Toole: 252,345 "Very Popular"
5. Ken Johnson: 251,199 "Extremely Popular"

Koufax as the leading vote-getter gets an automatic selection. I find it difficult to accept that the #2 vote-getter also gets an automatic selection, considering how poor his season has been. I mean, if Ellsworth were a borderline selection (let's say, the 10th best starter in the league), then maybe it will be ok. But he's clearly the 3rd best starter on his team, and the two guys above him weren't selected.

[Pelican]

I have seen this same thing in All-Star selections, and wondered why. Popularity seems to be the driving factor. (I attributed it to previous year stats, or career stats, but I think those things affect popularity. It's as if fans without current knowledge are voting based on reputation.) I don't like it, because it inevitably prevents a deserving player from making the All-Star team. And it could be his only chance.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by uruguru

Great question!

The top vote-getters for NL starting pitchers, with their national popularity:

1. Sandy Koufax: 369,400 "Extremely Popular"
2. Dick Ellsworth: 262,898 "Well Known"
3. Turk Farrell: 256,226 "Well Known"
4. Jim O'Toole: 252,345 "Very Popular"
5. Ken Johnson: 251,199 "Extremely Popular"

Koufax as the leading vote-getter gets an automatic selection. I find it difficult to accept that the #2 vote-getter also gets an automatic selection, considering how poor his season has been. I mean, if Ellsworth were a borderline selection (let's say, the 10th best starter in the league), then maybe it will be ok. But he's clearly the 3rd best starter on his team, and the two guys above him weren't selected.

Originally Posted by Pelican

I have seen this same thing in All-Star selections, and wondered why. Popularity seems to be the driving factor. (I attributed it to previous year stats, or career stats, but I think those things affect popularity. It's as if fans without current knowledge are voting based on reputation.) I don't like it, because it inevitably prevents a deserving player from making the All-Star team. And it could be his only chance.

FWIW there is a setting to turn off popularity in all-star voting. The descriptor in the popup box says "How much popularity should factor in to performance when determining All-Star starters". Though maybe that is just the way it was typed up during the development cycle and it applies to how the game selects some of the subs too?

Going by what I see in my game sometimes high vote getters get in and sometimes they don't. I've never looked deeply at popularity, vote totals, or stats to try to understand why they were chosen. However I've seen enough questionable selections that I don't think it's the requirement that "every team needs to be represented". Like in the original post, some of these guys are from teams that already have a player on the roster. So, again like the OP, if their stats aren't great why are they there? I wrote it off as popularity, and since it didn't bother me? I left it at that. And let me add that because it doesn't bother me, I'm not saying it shouldn't bother anyone else. We all have different thresholds on what we tolerate.

Might be worth the time for uruguru to check his settings and see what it is?

League Settings>options
menu selections: none, low, moderate, high

[snepp]

I set mine to low in every save and then just run with it. Like Sweed, the selections themselves never bother me, likely because I don't deep dive into scrutinizing them. I understand how it could bother those that do though.

Same for end of year awards. I shake my head sometimes, but I just roleplay that voters are morons and go on my way.

The Hall is a different story for me, no moron voters allowed, 100% manual selections on my part.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Might be worth the time for uruguru to check his settings and see what it is?

I'm sure they are the default settings, which are probably "High" but I don't think that's the problem. Here's why:

Popularity affects vote totals (I assume) and only the top vote-getter is guaranteed a selection. In this case, that was a different pitcher: Sandy Koufax.

But most importantly, Dick Ellsworth is not that popular, so setting popularity to "High" should work against him!

Do you want to know who, in this league, is popular?

Ken Johnson is "Extremely Popular" both nationally and locally, and he LEADS the majors with 15 wins. Pick a metric. His WAR, FIP, ERA, and W-L record are all substantially superior to Ellsworth. His vote total was just under Ellsworth's.

But he's watching the game on TV.

And it's not an issue with "home team ballot stuffing" (if that exists in OOTP) because I just counted and both teams (Reds & Cubs) have played 25 home games since ASG voting started.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by uruguru

I'm sure they are the default settings, which are probably "High" but I don't think that's the problem. Here's why:

Popularity affects vote totals (I assume) and only the top vote-getter is guaranteed a selection. In this case, that was a different pitcher: Sandy Koufax.

But most importantly, Dick Ellsworth is not that popular, so setting popularity to "High" should work against him!

Do you want to know who, in this league, is popular?

Ken Johnson is "Extremely Popular" both nationally and locally, and he LEADS the majors with 15 wins. Pick a metric. His WAR, FIP, ERA, and W-L record are all substantially superior to Ellsworth. His vote total was just under Ellsworth's.

But he's watching the game on TV.

And it's not an issue with "home team ballot stuffing" (if that exists in OOTP) because I just counted and both teams (Reds & Cubs) have played 25 home games since ASG voting started.

Like I said I haven't looked closely at any of the all-star players and how they make the team. It's just that in another post the question came up about popularity. First line in your response was "great question". Since nothing was said about it having a setting I thought maybe you had never seen it buried in all of those settings pages, and it would at least be something else to look into.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by snepp

I set mine to low in every save and then just run with it. Like Sweed, the selections themselves never bother me, likely because I don't deep dive into scrutinizing them. I understand how it could bother those that do though.

Same for end of year awards. I shake my head sometimes, but I just roleplay that voters are morons and go on my way.

The Hall is a different story for me, no moron voters allowed, 100% manual selections on my part.

Yeah, I run mine on low too.

I vote for the hall, but also let the AI do it too. In my experience, if anything, the AI is too restrictive rather than to lax. YMMV.

[snepp]

Originally Posted by uruguru

Popularity affects vote totals (I assume) and only the top vote-getter is guaranteed a selection. In this case, that was a different pitcher: Sandy Koufax.

In the case of pitchers it's the top 3 vote getters (sp and rp) that are guaranteed a spot.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by snepp

In the case of pitchers it's the top 3 vote getters (sp and rp) that are guaranteed a spot.

Well that's the problem then. That's crazy, because there's only like 9 or 10 pitching spots on the team.

That explains how these very undeserving pitchers are getting on the team.