What is going on with stealing?

[Battman]

1970 season - the top 5 base stealers in my replay are all fictitious players.
Also, the top 5 base stealers in real life, are as follows in my replay. (just over half way in the season)

Player. Steals. Steal Rating
Tolan 8 4
Campaneris. 3 6
Brock 2 3
Morgan 7 5
W. Davis 4 2

[Brad K]

Allowing fictional players or career minor leaguers into MLB changes the talent in the league. However ratings alone can't produce realistic league output with all historical players so League Total Modifiers are used to make the total output correct.

When the talent changes the total league output is still hammered into historical totals even if the talent means the totals should be different. This changes the performance of all players.

For more information on how this works see THIS THREAD and don't buy the obfuscation and misinformation posted by Garlon.

For the best chance of historical players performing historically, do not allow fictional players or career minor leaguers into MLB. Players who play longer than they did historically also affect the talent pool but I've found the effect is tolerable.

Do not play with League Total Modifiers fixed and not tested against the league. The rating system AND historical LTMs still will not produce historical output. The game tests and changes the modifiers to work before the season.

Supposedly the effect of LTMs is lessened in 25 due to improved ratings (according to Matt) while Garlon says the use of LTMs has been expanded and the game will never be able to run without them. So there's a disagreement between God the OOTP Father and God the OOTP Son.

[Brad K]

Also note that you said "replay" you're not doing a replay if you have fictional players. As used here replay usually means historical lineups and transactions. A save with historical players but with trades, free agency, AI or human determined lineups, etc, is alternate historical while including career minor leaguers and fictional players edges toward being a fictional game.

[Battman]

Sorry about the incorrect terminology. I'm a new gamer coming over from another game. To me, any past season is a replay and they are all fictional. However, I will try to convert to this particular game terminology.

If I understand correctly, the game is focused (for lack of a better term) on total league numbers output, even more than individual output, obviously without 100% accuracy. So, if there are players performing above their norm, or fictional players producing really good numbers, such as stolen bases; then it will have a negative effect on another player results? Doesn't seem right that players such as Brock or Morgan, should have their stolen base results lowered to such an extreme as I mentioned earlier, just because someone else is performing above expectations. Maybe I am just misunderstanding your point here. I have seen where gamers have produced players whose entire careers were well below real life. I don't have issues with things like this, as long as it is not because someone else is having a great career. Players output should be of their own, individual doing. But, if I am totally wrong in my interpretation, please let me know.
All of this said, I am thoroughly enjoying the game. I have played another game with, as you describe, actual replay format. This game is totally different. I am just frustrated that I picked up player/players with a certain expectation (such as Morgan and his stolen base ability) and at the beginning, he had great ratings, but half way through the season, he cant seem to get a stolen base at all. Same for the other players I mentioned, who historically, were great at this aspect of the game. This, and other aspects, can drastically affect an entire teams ability. I can't imagine the M&M boys from the 1961 Yankees, only being able to hit 10 HRs for the year.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Battman

Doesn't seem right that players such as Brock or Morgan, should have their stolen base results lowered to such an extreme as I mentioned earlier, just because someone else is performing above expectations.

It's not that other players are performing above expectations. It's that there are fictional players in the game who have high ratings.

Prior to the season OOTP runs simulations of the upcoming season using the LTMs for that year. It looks at the league totals and then adjusts the LTMs so that they change player output to achieve historical league totals.

Originally Posted by Battman

Players output should be of their own, individual doing

The LTMs accomplish this when overall league talent and player usage matches historical. However when league talent doesn't match historical LTMs hammer total output into historical numbers which means individual players may not be rated to perform as they did historically.

I wasn't around years ago when this started but part of the problem might be erroneous human expectations. It seems people wanted to change the inputs (players, strategies, lineups) yet still expected league totals to match historical. Early on it seems the game was judged based on its ability to produce overall numbers close to historical.

This perception error is encouraged by the inclusion of the historical accuracy evaluation in saves where it should not be expected that OTTP produce historical output.

Your experience shows the downside of allowing fictional players into MLB. What did you expect to gain from this? Have you achieved it?

[Brad K]

Summary

1. Ratings based on historical data will not produce historical output for players or for the league totals.
   
2. Ratings with output adjusted by historically based LTMs will not produce historical output for players or league totals.
   
3. Ratings combined with LTMs that are tested and adjusted will produce historical output for league totals and for individual players if the talent in the league matches historical talent.
   
4. If the talent in the league does not match historical then historical league totals take precedence over historical player output.

[Brad K]

This is a great game, but you have to play it within the parameters for which it was designed to get the results you want. Even though it includes options that are outside those parameters.

I'm currently playing with full minors so players come into the game for their first professional year not their first MLB year. There are way too many career minor leaguers in MLB. Next time I'm going to import full minors then delete everyone who didn't make MLB.

[Battman]

Thank You for your insight and responses. It definitely requires a different approach than past games I have played. I will probably play out this decade with the game as set up, and when I start another decade play, do away with the fictitious players. A learning curve for a new game.

[Brad K]

If you do a regular historical game and don't import entire history you may be short of subs to cover for injuries in the first year. That's because with that setup the game will give you only players who played MLB in the start year. So if in real life a team had the 3B injured then you'll get the player they called up to replace him. But if they didn't have a 3B injured you won't get that player and if yours is injured you won't have anyone to call up.

The answer to this is to import complete history which will give you players who played MLB before and after the starting year but not starting year. When I started my 1951 saves this resulted in about 80 additional players, a significant number for 16 teams.

However the additional players will show up as free agents. It will be necessary to manually assign them to their correct organizations.

Another fix is to import full minors. There's a mass delete button to delete everyone who didn't make it to MLB, which you'll need to do to avoid the problem you have with fictional players, although I suspect there's more of a problem with fictional players than there is with full minors.

[Battman]

Originally Posted by Brad K

If you do a regular historical game and don't import entire history you may be short of subs to cover for injuries in the first year. That's because with that setup the game will give you only players who played MLB in the start year. So if in real life a team had the 3B injured then you'll get the player they called up to replace him. But if they didn't have a 3B injured you won't get that player and if yours is injured you won't have anyone to call up.

The answer to this is to import complete history which will give you players who played MLB before and after the starting year but not starting year. When I started my 1951 saves this resulted in about 80 additional players, a significant number for 16 teams.

However the additional players will show up as free agents. It will be necessary to manually assign them to their correct organizations.

Another fix is to import full minors. There's a mass delete button to delete everyone who didn't make it to MLB, which you'll need to do to avoid the problem you have with fictional players, although I suspect there's more of a problem with fictional players than there is with full minors.

Appreciate the info. Interestingly, I thought I hit the mass delete button. But I started this replay over so many times, as I was having issues with ratings drastically changing, I may not have done it this round. Thought I had that figured out, but they kept changing. Now I'm so far into the replay, made some trades to get my team ready for next year, I guess I will just keep my fictional players. However, I only set up 2 levels of minor leagues, and I chose to skip the draft, letting real drafted players go to original teams. Question - starting in my next season, will I be able to expand the minor leagues, or will this create a problem?

[Brad K]

I don't know if you can add levels of minors after the save has started.

However, wouldn't more levels of minors put more fictional players in the game?

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by Battman

Sorry about the incorrect terminology. I'm a new gamer coming over from another game. To me, any past season is a replay and they are all fictional. However, I will try to convert to this particular game terminology.

If I understand correctly, the game is focused (for lack of a better term) on total league numbers output, even more than individual output, obviously without 100% accuracy. So, if there are players performing above their norm, or fictional players producing really good numbers, such as stolen bases; then it will have a negative effect on another player results? Doesn't seem right that players such as Brock or Morgan, should have their stolen base results lowered to such an extreme as I mentioned earlier, just because someone else is performing above expectations. Maybe I am just misunderstanding your point here. I have seen where gamers have produced players whose entire careers were well below real life. I don't have issues with things like this, as long as it is not because someone else is having a great career. Players output should be of their own, individual doing. But, if I am totally wrong in my interpretation, please let me know.
All of this said, I am thoroughly enjoying the game. I have played another game with, as you describe, actual replay format. This game is totally different. I am just frustrated that I picked up player/players with a certain expectation (such as Morgan and his stolen base ability) and at the beginning, he had great ratings, but half way through the season, he cant seem to get a stolen base at all. Same for the other players I mentioned, who historically, were great at this aspect of the game. This, and other aspects, can drastically affect an entire teams ability. I can't imagine the M&M boys from the 1961 Yankees, only being able to hit 10 HRs for the year.

In simple terms it works like this or this is how I understand it.

Every at bat takes a dice roll vs the players ratings against a formula containing the LTM's, this results in a hit, HR, stolen base and so forth.
League talent level comes into play with the Auto Cal modifiers, they then tweak the formula to account for the talent level and will effects the results more then with just LTM.

My understanding is that LTM's are needed for historical play and to take account era's like the dead ball or steroids. When the rating system form players was only 1-255 it was harder to make players perform realistically throughout eras and still somehow play together without the use of LTM's. I would assume they can do more with 1-550 rating system.

Still I welcome the day we get rid of the LTM's. I know for past versions they had way too much effect on results

[Battman]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

In simple terms it works like this or this is how I understand it.

Every at bat takes a dice roll vs the players ratings against a formula containing the LTM's, this results in a hit, HR, stolen base and so forth.
League talent level comes into play with the Auto Cal modifiers, they then tweak the formula to account for the talent level and will effects the results more then with just LTM.

My understanding is that LTM's are needed for historical play and to take account era's like the dead ball or steroids. When the rating system form players was only 1-255 it was harder to make players perform realistically throughout eras and still somehow play together without the use of LTM's. I would assume they can do more with 1-550 rating system.

Still I welcome the day we get rid of the LTM's. I know for past versions they had way too much effect on results

After coming off a dice game that puts the emphasis on the individual player, and then trying to wrap my head around the way this game rates players and carries them over from year to year, I struggle what to look at when looking at trades. I am playing 1970, and just traded Bob Moose to get Mickey Lolich, even up. To me, this is a no brainer, but the game gives Moose higher ratings. Multiple teams wanted Moose. I could have gotten Reggie Jackson and Campaneris for Moose and Gene Alley. It was hard to turn this down, but I learned from my experience with past games how important pitching is, and I am pretty decent in both SS and RF. For the 1971 season, I have 7 starters to choose my rotation from. Blass, Ellis (who lost this season to injury), Osteen, Lolich, Catfish Hunter, Mel Stottlemyer, and fictional Dustin Bates who is currently 2nd in ERA in the league and my winningest pitcher.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Battman

After coming off a dice game that puts the emphasis on the individual player, and then trying to wrap my head around the way this game rates players and carries them over from year to year, I struggle what to look at when looking at trades. I am playing 1970, and just traded Bob Moose to get Mickey Lolich, even up. To me, this is a no brainer, but the game gives Moose higher ratings. Multiple teams wanted Moose. I could have gotten Reggie Jackson and Campaneris for Moose and Gene Alley. It was hard to turn this down, but I learned from my experience with past games how important pitching is, and I am pretty decent in both SS and RF. For the 1971 season, I have 7 starters to choose my rotation from. Blass, Ellis (who lost this season to injury), Osteen, Lolich, Catfish Hunter, Mel Stottlemyer, and fictional Dustin Bates who is currently 2nd in ERA in the league and my winningest pitcher.

Unless you have scouting set to 100% accurate, AI GMs will be seeing different ratings that you do.

However, the AI GMs look at more than talent. In OOTP, so should you.

In 1971 Moose is 23 years old. Lolich is 30 years old.

Lolich is likely making a lot more money than Moose.

If you're playing with free agency, Lolich could be nearing the end of his contract and his team doesn't want to spend what it takes to resign him. Or he could have a long term contract they regret giving him.

Lolich's team could have a goal of cutting payroll. Or it could be he's on a poor team that can't benefit much from a top SP.

How good for how long and for how much money and what do you need now versus next year or three years from now or five years from now.

[Battman]

However, the AI GMs look at more than talent. In OOTP, so should you.

Most definitely agree with this. However, my setup is that player ratings recall to real stats after each year as potential ratings, so I’m hoping that my players will perform more in line of real life. Still quite a bit to learn. This project is based on the 70’s decade and then I will try something different

[Brad K]

We both have saves with extra players that are a few years old. Yours is with fictional players and mine is with career minor leaguers. I wonder if it is possible in the current state of or saves to delete every player who didn't make MLB without disrupting the game too much.