Historical issues - recent 24 to 25 upgrade

mookie1 · 09-11-2024, 01:22 PM

In the midst of a long-running historical replay, real lineups, real transactions. Upgraded to v25 between the 1982 and 1983 seasons. I encountered 3 issues that, yeah, might be small sample size, but probably not. I believe these are bugs:

#1) NL pitchers' hitting ratings are skewed too high. ALL teams' pitchers hit more HRs in OOTP than real life, despite the historical sim accuracy for HRs only being up 1.6%.

#2) The MVP vote (which was done in v25 for both 1982 and 1983) is based strictly on WAR. Previously, there appeared to be some team context taken into consideration. In the 1983 OOTP season, for instance, Mike Schmidt won NL MVP based on 9.0 WAR for a 77 win team. Andre Dawson did not win MVP despite a 7.9 WAR (and a 30/30 season on top of that) for a 94 win division champ. This WAR-only awarding is true for all 4 MVPs that have been named in my league while in v25. Also notable that Cy Young winners do NOT seem to be based strictly on WAR and do, in fact, have some sort of additional context applied.

#3) All hitting stats within an acceptable margin of error, but runs scored way high (6.4%). Anecdotally, I think this is related to the tendency in v25 for hitters to frequently take an extra base on the outfield throw, so while 2B/H% was literally at 0.0%, the "singles that are effectively doubles" is skewing the actual number.

Two other items that are more nitpicks than bugs:

#4) Because of my historical settings, I can no longer see the financials screen, which is mostly fine, but I can no longer see the progressive over time win percentage chart. Can this be moved elsewhere?

#5) Last thing, which has been an issue for a while across versions -- once the historical game enters the playoffs, the regular lineup is abandoned (which, I get it to an extent because real lineups are used, but I would think some logic could be applied based on most frequent lineups over the last x weeks, something like that) but more importantly, bullpen usage is different in a non-realistic way. I have seen playoff series where only 1 or 2 relievers are used (and the closer is always starting off the 8th inning). I understand that real playoff usage would be stricter, but it seems like it's overdone in this case.

Please let me know if you need more data. Thank you.

Rain King · 09-11-2024, 01:49 PM

#1) What are your Adjust Hitter Option settings? Those would be affecting how low PA pitchers are getting adjusted.

#2) I think a dev would probably have to weigh in on whether this is something that has changed. I'm no help here as I don't particularly care about/watch the award choices.

#3) There is a Baserunning XB% modifier. What is your setting for that? In fact, do you use Auto-Calc?

mookie1 · 09-11-2024, 02:12 PM

Thank you for the quick response.

#1) 300 AB. I have not touched this number in any iteration of OOTP (and I've been around since v1). Maybe this is the answer but seems odd that it's only become an issue now.

#3) Baserunning XB is 45 (again, did not adjust this). Auto-Calc is on.

Rain King · 09-11-2024, 02:31 PM

I assume you are also using Recalc? What are those settings?

mookie1 · 09-11-2024, 03:14 PM

1 year recalc, based on real stats, peak seasons of career, use historical splits

LansdowneSt · 09-11-2024, 03:24 PM

Moving from 24 to 25 had some notes here due to the ratings shift.

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=352897

Rain King · 09-11-2024, 03:39 PM

I ran a test 1983 with the default settings for "Replay Mode" (which essentially sounds the same as the OP settings with maybe some differences in the adjust hitter options).

I got 48 HR's from pitchers, there were 17 in the "real" 1983.

Runs were also high for me, but not quite as high and technically in the Green (+4.0%).

Pitcher home runs are going to be hard to get accurate simply because they are so rare. They are more than double the real life number in my test, but still that is only a difference of 31 across 5,000+ plate appearances. Basically something like 0.3% vs. 0.8%.

mookie1 · 09-11-2024, 04:07 PM

My HR count for pitchers was 63. Point taken on the relative percentages, but at minimum, I can say it doesn't help with the immersion aspect of the game.

My run % criticism could probably stand a few more seasons before claiming there's a problem, but because I play out a fair number of games, the change in aggressive baserunning is noticeable during game action.

As to the previous reply, I had reviewed the "Import Considerations" doc before posting and did not see any explicit reference to these phenomena that I reported, but the language does suggest that there could be other issues lurking, possibly ones like these, so maybe this is just how it is.

Thank you both for your input.

uruguru · 09-12-2024, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mookie1

#2) The MVP vote (which was done in v25 for both 1982 and 1983) is based strictly on WAR. Previously, there appeared to be some team context taken into consideration. In the 1983 OOTP season, for instance, Mike Schmidt won NL MVP based on 9.0 WAR for a 77 win team. Andre Dawson did not win MVP despite a 7.9 WAR (and a 30/30 season on top of that) for a 94 win division champ. This WAR-only awarding is true for all 4 MVPs that have been named in my league while in v25. Also notable that Cy Young winners do NOT seem to be based strictly on WAR and do, in fact, have some sort of additional context applied.

Unfortunately, I think limiting the use of WAR for historical awards is just a battle that can't be won. What I do now is manually assign the MVP/CY awards. At the end of the season, I have a fairly simple formula to decide who wins those awards based on historical criteria. Then I go to the manual awards section and default to the AI choices, then switch out the MVP and Cy to what I think it should be.

09-11-2024, 03:24 PM	#6
LansdowneSt Global Moderator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: From Duxbury, Mass residing Baltimore Posts: 7,181	Moving from 24 to 25 had some notes here due to the ratings shift. https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=352897 __________________ Complete Universe Facegen Pack 2.0 (mine included) https://www.mediafire.com/file_premi...k_2.0.zip/file Just my Facegen Pack: https://www.mediafire.com/file_premi..._Pack.zip/file

09-11-2024, 01:22 PM	#1
mookie1 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 46	Historical issues - recent 24 to 25 upgrade In the midst of a long-running historical replay, real lineups, real transactions. Upgraded to v25 between the 1982 and 1983 seasons. I encountered 3 issues that, yeah, might be small sample size, but probably not. I believe these are bugs: #1) NL pitchers' hitting ratings are skewed too high. ALL teams' pitchers hit more HRs in OOTP than real life, despite the historical sim accuracy for HRs only being up 1.6%. #2) The MVP vote (which was done in v25 for both 1982 and 1983) is based strictly on WAR. Previously, there appeared to be some team context taken into consideration. In the 1983 OOTP season, for instance, Mike Schmidt won NL MVP based on 9.0 WAR for a 77 win team. Andre Dawson did not win MVP despite a 7.9 WAR (and a 30/30 season on top of that) for a 94 win division champ. This WAR-only awarding is true for all 4 MVPs that have been named in my league while in v25. Also notable that Cy Young winners do NOT seem to be based strictly on WAR and do, in fact, have some sort of additional context applied. #3) All hitting stats within an acceptable margin of error, but runs scored way high (6.4%). Anecdotally, I think this is related to the tendency in v25 for hitters to frequently take an extra base on the outfield throw, so while 2B/H% was literally at 0.0%, the "singles that are effectively doubles" is skewing the actual number. Two other items that are more nitpicks than bugs: #4) Because of my historical settings, I can no longer see the financials screen, which is mostly fine, but I can no longer see the progressive over time win percentage chart. Can this be moved elsewhere? #5) Last thing, which has been an issue for a while across versions -- once the historical game enters the playoffs, the regular lineup is abandoned (which, I get it to an extent because real lineups are used, but I would think some logic could be applied based on most frequent lineups over the last x weeks, something like that) but more importantly, bullpen usage is different in a non-realistic way. I have seen playoff series where only 1 or 2 relievers are used (and the closer is always starting off the 8th inning). I understand that real playoff usage would be stricter, but it seems like it's overdone in this case. Please let me know if you need more data. Thank you.

09-11-2024, 01:49 PM	#2
Rain King Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 3,072 Infractions: 1/1 (1)	#1) What are your Adjust Hitter Option settings? Those would be affecting how low PA pitchers are getting adjusted. #2) I think a dev would probably have to weigh in on whether this is something that has changed. I'm no help here as I don't particularly care about/watch the award choices. #3) There is a Baserunning XB% modifier. What is your setting for that? In fact, do you use Auto-Calc? Last edited by Rain King; 09-11-2024 at 01:52 PM.

09-11-2024, 02:12 PM	#3
mookie1 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 46	Thank you for the quick response. #1) 300 AB. I have not touched this number in any iteration of OOTP (and I've been around since v1). Maybe this is the answer but seems odd that it's only become an issue now. #3) Baserunning XB is 45 (again, did not adjust this). Auto-Calc is on.

09-11-2024, 02:31 PM	#4
Rain King Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 3,072 Infractions: 1/1 (1)	I assume you are also using Recalc? What are those settings?

09-11-2024, 03:14 PM	#5
mookie1 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 46	1 year recalc, based on real stats, peak seasons of career, use historical splits

09-11-2024, 03:39 PM	#7
Rain King Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 3,072 Infractions: 1/1 (1)	I ran a test 1983 with the default settings for "Replay Mode" (which essentially sounds the same as the OP settings with maybe some differences in the adjust hitter options). I got 48 HR's from pitchers, there were 17 in the "real" 1983. Runs were also high for me, but not quite as high and technically in the Green (+4.0%). Pitcher home runs are going to be hard to get accurate simply because they are so rare. They are more than double the real life number in my test, but still that is only a difference of 31 across 5,000+ plate appearances. Basically something like 0.3% vs. 0.8%.

09-11-2024, 04:07 PM	#8
mookie1 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 46	My HR count for pitchers was 63. Point taken on the relative percentages, but at minimum, I can say it doesn't help with the immersion aspect of the game. My run % criticism could probably stand a few more seasons before claiming there's a problem, but because I play out a fair number of games, the change in aggressive baserunning is noticeable during game action. As to the previous reply, I had reviewed the "Import Considerations" doc before posting and did not see any explicit reference to these phenomena that I reported, but the language does suggest that there could be other issues lurking, possibly ones like these, so maybe this is just how it is. Thank you both for your input.