ESPN's projections for future 300-game winners

TotalEnd98 · 05-25-2003, 09:49 PM

They claim right off the bat that these are the only pitchers they see with "a realistic, though outside, chance of winning 300 -- if everything goes right." Four of them probably will not surprise you. The fifth most likely will.

Tom Glavine
Age: 37
Wins: 247
What It Would Take:
'Glavine is only five wins behind Clemens at the same age. And if you project him with 15 wins a year through age 40, that gets him to 302 wins. Those 15 a year will come harder in Flushing than they did in Atlanta. But Glavine still has an easy delivery. He's never been on the DL. And he isn't likely to quit if he's close. "He will stick it out," said Braves broadcaster, and 300-game winner, Don Sutton. "Tom is a guy who is mindful of his niche in baseball history. His goals are strong, and he wants to make the Hall of Fame."'

Randy Johnson
Age: 39
Wins: 225
What It Would Take:
It won't be easy. The Unit is almost 60 wins behind where Clemens was at the same age. And now he's in the midst of losing half a season to knee surgery. But we're talking about a guy who has averaged 20 wins a season the last five years (from age 34 through 38). So if he has a couple of more seasons like that in him, who knows? "I wouldn't put it past him," Phillies pitching coach Joe Kerrigan said. "I think he can pitch till he's 45. Which gives him a legitimate shot."

Mike Mussina
Age: 34
Wins: 189
What It Would Take:
Mussina is right on Clemens' pace. He has cranked out 14 to 19 wins a year in nine of the last 11 seasons. And now he is quietly within range of 300, while pitching as well as ever, for the perfect win machine (the Yankees). "No question, he has a shot," A's pitching coach Rick Peterson said. "He's so different from Roger, too. Roger is like Tiger (Woods). He's going to go out and hit it 320. Mussina is more Maddux-like. He's going to stay in the fairway. He'll be in the right place on the green. He's course management at the highest level. If anybody could do it and stay healthy, it's Mussina."

Pedro Martinez
Age: 31
Wins: 156
What It Would Take:
Pedro, too, is just off Clemens' pace. And he remains as dominating as ever. But he needs to average 15 wins for another 10 years. And who knows whether he'll be healthy or driven enough to pitch that long. "It's all up to Pedro's desire to stay in the game," said Kerrigan, his old pitching coach. "A guy like him, with his body, he can probably pitch till he's 38-40, with three great pitches. And knowing him, he'll probably invent a pitch in five years that he doesn't throw now."

Andy Pettitte
Age: 31
Wins: 132
What It Would Take:
It's hard to imagine Pettitte putting in another 11 or 12 seasons -- or keeping his elbow healthy enough to pitch that long. But remember, we're talking about the only pitcher in the expansion era to win 12 games or more in the first eight seasons of his career. Plus, he's a Yankee. Plus, he owns the fourth-best career winning percentage of any active pitcher with at least 150 decisions. Plus, he has averaged 16 wins a season over his career. If he keeps averaging 16 a year through age 40, he'd be at 288 wins. But don't bet on it. "From what I hear," one AL scout said, "he's already thinking about retiring."

Now, I'm probably the most outspoken Pettitte fan out there, but even through I've looked at the numbers many times in the past few years and know that it is possible, I don't really see it happening.

As for the youngsters (the Oakland Three, for example), ESPN doesn't grade them (considering it premature: too few wins, too young to project) and uses Dwight Gooden's spectacular rise but underachieving career as a warning against predicting 300 wins for them (or even 200).

The article: http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stark...n/1556810.html

Dwolfson20 · 05-25-2003, 09:58 PM

I agree with the last part of that; there's no reason to project anyone's chances of reaching 300 wins if they aren't at least 30 years old. And I think they're also being pretty realistic about Pettitte's chances, from what I gathered in the explanation paragraph.

dbacks · 05-25-2003, 11:05 PM

Johnson can forget about it. I don't know why they even think he has a shot. This knee problem is more likely due to age than anything else, and is a sign he probably isn't going to last another 6 years. And missing the next 6 weeks certainly won't help any.

dbacks · 05-25-2003, 11:07 PM

Oh, and one last thing that GUARANTEES you he won't get 300:
He's playing for the Diamondbacks.

Steve Kuffrey · 05-26-2003, 08:26 AM

You left out the beginning of the article when he said Greg Maddux is a lock.....to win 300.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stark...n/1556810.html

sporr · 05-26-2003, 09:44 AM

What this shows is just how tough it is to reach 300 wins. Here is a list of the premiere pitchers of the last 5-10 years and many of them won't even make it.

dbacks · 05-26-2003, 10:46 AM

I think most of them won't make it. It doesn't JUST take a good pitcher - it takes a good pitcher on a good team, which is why I don't think a guy like say, the Unit will get it. He's also 39, and most likely won't last another 6 years. But he's on a team where he HAS to pitch a shutout half the games he starts or else he won't win.

I mean, when you think about it, Clemens probably doesn't get 300 (he still might not, but I'm assuming he will) if he's on any other team than the Yankees. He might have 250-260, which is still good, but what if he were on any other team? A team that doesn't provide quite as much defensive and run support as the Yankees do. Then hw probably doesn't get 300, because he's the rest of this season away from retirement, and the only reason he's waiting this long is to get his 300.

Eckstein 4 Prez · 05-26-2003, 11:54 AM

Remember, too, that with fewer and fewer pitchers getting decisions for their starts, winning 300 today is probably the equivalent of winning 350 in the post-war era or winning 400 in the dead ball era.

(Note: I pulled these numbers out of my ass. If you prefer different numbers, feel free to suggest them - my point is that it's much harder to win 300 today than it was in the past.)

dbacks · 05-26-2003, 12:10 PM

And with the 5 man rotation of today vs. the 4 man rotation of yesterday.

darkhorse · 05-26-2003, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Eckstein 4 Prez
Remember, too, that with fewer and fewer pitchers getting decisions for their starts, winning 300 today is probably the equivalent of winning 350 in the post-war era or winning 400 in the dead ball era.

(Note: I pulled these numbers out of my ass. If you prefer different numbers, feel free to suggest them - my point is that it's much harder to win 300 today than it was in the past.)

20 pitchers have won 300 games in 133 seasons of MLB. Only 8 of those 20 had careers that began post deadball era. It's extremely difficult in any era and even moreso with recent changes in the game. Most likely, none of the players on the list will make it.

twins15 · 05-26-2003, 05:57 PM

Well, no 300 today for Roger. He gave up 8 runs on 10 hits.

Denton True · 05-26-2003, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by twins15
Well, no 300 today for Roger. He gave up 8 runs on 10 hits.

HAHAHAHA!!!

dbacks · 05-26-2003, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by twins15
Well, no 300 today for Roger. He gave up 8 runs on 10 hits.

Good for him. I think he could use 20 more starts just like that.

dbacks · 05-26-2003, 06:42 PM

s**t. His next friggin start is against Detroit.

AccardoOutfit29 · 05-26-2003, 06:44 PM

Why would you not want one of the best pitchers of this era to reach such a milestone? Even if he is a Yankee he is still a great pitcher.

Eckstein 4 Prez · 05-26-2003, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by darkhorse
20 pitchers have won 300 games in 133 seasons of MLB. Only 8 of those 20 had careers that began post deadball era. It's extremely difficult in any era and even moreso with recent changes in the game. Most likely, none of the players on the list will make it.

Good point - although I'd say Glavine, Mussina and Pedro each have about a 20-25% chance. At 20% each, that projects to a 48.8% chance that at least one will make it. I'd say it's a decent to say that one will.

dbacks · 05-26-2003, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by AccardoOutfit29
Why would you not want one of the best pitchers of this era to reach such a milestone? Even if he is a Yankee he is still a great pitcher.

I never said that he isn't a great pitcher - because that wouldn't be true. I know he is a great pitcher. I don't like him, nor do I have any respect for him. Stats aren't everything to me.

Read this article. ItYou don't have to, but you asked me why, and because I'm too lazy to type everything in my own words, I thought I'd just dig up an article that says it all for me.

AccardoOutfit29 · 05-26-2003, 08:37 PM

I don't know if I would trust an article written by a biased Boston reporter.

sporr · 05-27-2003, 09:45 AM

Whether you like him or hate him as a person, he's still one of the greatest pitchers of all time.

YankeeHaterz · 05-27-2003, 10:54 AM

Pedro wont get 300, he wont play 10 more year, he is too stubborn likely will play only 3 more years if that. The only one outta that bunch that wil get is Glavine. He is Reborn in New York

05-25-2003, 09:49 PM	#1
TotalEnd98 All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: New York Posts: 1,687	ESPN's projections for future 300-game winners They claim right off the bat that these are the only pitchers they see with "a realistic, though outside, chance of winning 300 -- if everything goes right." Four of them probably will not surprise you. The fifth most likely will. Tom Glavine Age: 37 Wins: 247 What It Would Take: 'Glavine is only five wins behind Clemens at the same age. And if you project him with 15 wins a year through age 40, that gets him to 302 wins. Those 15 a year will come harder in Flushing than they did in Atlanta. But Glavine still has an easy delivery. He's never been on the DL. And he isn't likely to quit if he's close. "He will stick it out," said Braves broadcaster, and 300-game winner, Don Sutton. "Tom is a guy who is mindful of his niche in baseball history. His goals are strong, and he wants to make the Hall of Fame."' Randy Johnson Age: 39 Wins: 225 What It Would Take: It won't be easy. The Unit is almost 60 wins behind where Clemens was at the same age. And now he's in the midst of losing half a season to knee surgery. But we're talking about a guy who has averaged 20 wins a season the last five years (from age 34 through 38). So if he has a couple of more seasons like that in him, who knows? "I wouldn't put it past him," Phillies pitching coach Joe Kerrigan said. "I think he can pitch till he's 45. Which gives him a legitimate shot." Mike Mussina Age: 34 Wins: 189 What It Would Take: Mussina is right on Clemens' pace. He has cranked out 14 to 19 wins a year in nine of the last 11 seasons. And now he is quietly within range of 300, while pitching as well as ever, for the perfect win machine (the Yankees). "No question, he has a shot," A's pitching coach Rick Peterson said. "He's so different from Roger, too. Roger is like Tiger (Woods). He's going to go out and hit it 320. Mussina is more Maddux-like. He's going to stay in the fairway. He'll be in the right place on the green. He's course management at the highest level. If anybody could do it and stay healthy, it's Mussina." Pedro Martinez Age: 31 Wins: 156 What It Would Take: Pedro, too, is just off Clemens' pace. And he remains as dominating as ever. But he needs to average 15 wins for another 10 years. And who knows whether he'll be healthy or driven enough to pitch that long. "It's all up to Pedro's desire to stay in the game," said Kerrigan, his old pitching coach. "A guy like him, with his body, he can probably pitch till he's 38-40, with three great pitches. And knowing him, he'll probably invent a pitch in five years that he doesn't throw now." Andy Pettitte Age: 31 Wins: 132 What It Would Take: It's hard to imagine Pettitte putting in another 11 or 12 seasons -- or keeping his elbow healthy enough to pitch that long. But remember, we're talking about the only pitcher in the expansion era to win 12 games or more in the first eight seasons of his career. Plus, he's a Yankee. Plus, he owns the fourth-best career winning percentage of any active pitcher with at least 150 decisions. Plus, he has averaged 16 wins a season over his career. If he keeps averaging 16 a year through age 40, he'd be at 288 wins. But don't bet on it. "From what I hear," one AL scout said, "he's already thinking about retiring." Now, I'm probably the most outspoken Pettitte fan out there, but even through I've looked at the numbers many times in the past few years and know that it is possible, I don't really see it happening. As for the youngsters (the Oakland Three, for example), ESPN doesn't grade them (considering it premature: too few wins, too young to project) and uses Dwight Gooden's spectacular rise but underachieving career as a warning against predicting 300 wins for them (or even 200). The article: http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stark...n/1556810.html

05-25-2003, 09:58 PM	#2
Dwolfson20 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Not St. Louis Posts: 2,872	I agree with the last part of that; there's no reason to project anyone's chances of reaching 300 wins if they aren't at least 30 years old. And I think they're also being pretty realistic about Pettitte's chances, from what I gathered in the explanation paragraph. __________________

05-25-2003, 11:05 PM	#3
dbacks Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 2,735	Johnson can forget about it. I don't know why they even think he has a shot. This knee problem is more likely due to age than anything else, and is a sign he probably isn't going to last another 6 years. And missing the next 6 weeks certainly won't help any. Last edited by dbacks; 05-25-2003 at 11:08 PM.

05-26-2003, 08:26 AM	#5
Steve Kuffrey Administrator Join Date: Jul 1999 Location: S.E. TN - Georgia born and raised Posts: 17,036	You left out the beginning of the article when he said Greg Maddux is a lock.....to win 300. http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stark...n/1556810.html __________________ Steve Kuffrey DABS Atlanta Braves - 2008 Eastern Division Champ *DBLC Atlanta Braves - 2011, 2014 East Division Champ, 2012, 2013 NL Wildcard Baseball Maelstrom-Montreal Expos-2013 Tourney winner, 2014 WC Team Sparky's League - Tampa Bay D'Rays Epicenter Baseball League - Astros 2014 The CBL Rewind - Phillies '95

05-26-2003, 11:54 AM	#8
Eckstein 4 Prez Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: The OC Posts: 6,358	Remember, too, that with fewer and fewer pitchers getting decisions for their starts, winning 300 today is probably the equivalent of winning 350 in the post-war era or winning 400 in the dead ball era. (Note: I pulled these numbers out of my ass. If you prefer different numbers, feel free to suggest them - my point is that it's much harder to win 300 today than it was in the past.) __________________ Looking for an insomnia cure? Check out my dynasty thread, The Dawn of American Professional Base Ball, 1871.

05-25-2003, 11:07 PM	#4
dbacks Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 2,735	Oh, and one last thing that GUARANTEES you he won't get 300: He's playing for the Diamondbacks.

05-26-2003, 09:44 AM	#6
sporr Global Moderator Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Muscatine, IA Posts: 8,277	What this shows is just how tough it is to reach 300 wins. Here is a list of the premiere pitchers of the last 5-10 years and many of them won't even make it.

05-26-2003, 10:46 AM	#7
dbacks Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 2,735	I think most of them won't make it. It doesn't JUST take a good pitcher - it takes a good pitcher on a good team, which is why I don't think a guy like say, the Unit will get it. He's also 39, and most likely won't last another 6 years. But he's on a team where he HAS to pitch a shutout half the games he starts or else he won't win. I mean, when you think about it, Clemens probably doesn't get 300 (he still might not, but I'm assuming he will) if he's on any other team than the Yankees. He might have 250-260, which is still good, but what if he were on any other team? A team that doesn't provide quite as much defensive and run support as the Yankees do. Then hw probably doesn't get 300, because he's the rest of this season away from retirement, and the only reason he's waiting this long is to get his 300.

05-26-2003, 12:10 PM	#9
dbacks Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 2,735	And with the 5 man rotation of today vs. the 4 man rotation of yesterday.

05-26-2003, 05:57 PM	#11
twins15 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Area 51 Posts: 4,792	Well, no 300 today for Roger. He gave up 8 runs on 10 hits. __________________ "Ah man we're just hungry man" - Dovonte Edwards Bismarck Boy Scouts of the OTBL - league yes-man Ross Gload at baseball-reference.com Book Quotes and Book Lists

05-26-2003, 06:42 PM	#14
dbacks Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 2,735	s**t. His next friggin start is against Detroit.

05-26-2003, 06:44 PM	#15
AccardoOutfit29 All Star Reserve Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 531	Why would you not want one of the best pitchers of this era to reach such a milestone? Even if he is a Yankee he is still a great pitcher.

05-26-2003, 08:37 PM	#18
AccardoOutfit29 All Star Reserve Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 531	I don't know if I would trust an article written by a biased Boston reporter.

05-27-2003, 09:45 AM	#19
sporr Global Moderator Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Muscatine, IA Posts: 8,277	Whether you like him or hate him as a person, he's still one of the greatest pitchers of all time.

05-27-2003, 10:54 AM	#20
YankeeHaterz Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: May 2003 Location: Maine Posts: 42	Pedro wont get 300, he wont play 10 more year, he is too stubborn likely will play only 3 more years if that. The only one outta that bunch that wil get is Glavine. He is Reborn in New York