Prospects Question - Make it make sense please

[dj30harw]

So I have a ton of hours into this game. I recently decided to try a money ball team (before was playing a higher salary cap team to get myself more acclimated with game). So I choose the Royals, focus all my cash on development (double the league base), and scouting. I also cleared out minor league coaches and replaced them with better overall coaches. So first 2 years of drafting comes, I do pretty well in the drafts. Now into year 3 and EVERY good draft pick has declined to a mediocre level, while TRASH players improve. Please make this make sense? What am I doing wrong? I am not rushing them up, I am keeping them about where they should be based on their ratings, but it just doesn't fail. 2 years of great draft picks just gone, while my crap draft picks "excel" (not really excel but show improvement while every good prospect just drops like a rock) ... Any input would be appreciated. Please make this make sense, its so frustrating.

[jpeters1734]

Welcome to OOTP, lol.

You're not doing anything wrong. chalk it up to bad luck.

I would also suggest hiring a good scout that favors ability over tools. The ability guys tend to have a more realistic outlook on potential.

I'm assuming that your settings are close to default, but you may consider lowering TCR if it frustrates you that your players don't always develop.

[Daniel_09]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

Welcome to OOTP, lol.

You're not doing anything wrong. chalk it up to bad luck.

I would also suggest hiring a good scout that favors ability over tools. The ability guys tend to have a more realistic outlook on potential.

I'm assuming that your settings are close to default, but you may consider lowering TCR if it frustrates you that your players don't always develop.

this is totally correct, I used to use the scout that high favor tools a lot, of course this scout sometimes provided you with prospects that ended up being 80/80 and HOF, but most of the time it overestimated and prospects that had 80 potentials ended up being below average player 45/45.

Once I started playing historical simulations (which has no IAFA or scouting discoveries) I preferred the neutral or favor ability scouts as they don't show you great prospect potential (max potential of 65 or 70) but they are players that most of the time complete their development (with TCR's default settings).

If you want most of the prospects to develop as the scouts see it, I recommend lowering the TCR, so you have less surprises in the development of the players. And if you want to improve the development of the players in the minors change all the coaches that have legendary or outstanding development and mechanics, this makes the players to be in an environment prone to improve.

Another thing to take into account in the prospects is that they have high work ethic and intelligence this gives you more chances for the players to reach their potential.

And in the end, it is something that happens in real life, if you want to go deeper into the subject, I recommend you read about the 2013 and 2014 IRL drafts, both considered the worst drafts in terms of prospect development.

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

Welcome to OOTP, lol.

You're not doing anything wrong. chalk it up to bad luck.

I would also suggest hiring a good scout that favors ability over tools. The ability guys tend to have a more realistic outlook on potential.

I'm assuming that your settings are close to default, but you may consider lowering TCR if it frustrates you that your players don't always develop.

Highly Favors Tools is the ONLY scout to consider.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

Highly Favors Tools is the ONLY scout to consider.

Well, with an argument like that I don't know how I can disagree.....

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

Well, with an argument like that I don't know how I can disagree.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQuA...l=Sgt.Mushroom

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQuA...l=Sgt.Mushroom

That's the best argument I've ever seen to consider other types of scouts, if that quack is as wrong about this as he is about every other claim he's ever made about OOTP.

[snepp]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

That's the best argument I've ever seen to consider other types of scouts, if that quack is as wrong about this as he is about every other claim he's ever made about OOTP.

I watched it (out of curiosity). I didn't hear anything that I haven't read a hundred times on here over the years. Anecdotes and definitive claims without any actual analysis to back it.

Not saying the belief is wrong, I've always favored the "favor tools" scouts as well, but I don't have any basis of my own to support it either.

[dj30harw]

Thank you all for the input! I will give this all a shot!

[md40022]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQuA...l=Sgt.Mushroom

Sgt. Mushroom looks like the type of kid that pee'd his pants in little league and stopped playing at whatever age they went from a ragball to a hardball.

Might be a really bright guy when it comes to computer simulated baseball, but he was mos def the kid in little league that went 0 for the entire season at the plate, with a 99% strikeout rate and more pee-pants incidents than foul tips.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQuA...l=Sgt.Mushroom

That's not an argument. Anyone that cannot form an idea, other than posting a link to someone else making a point, should probably not post an opinion.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQuA...l=Sgt.Mushroom

I watched out of curiosity and he's completely wrong about favor ability scouts. It has nothing to do with stats.

Favor ability scouts factor in current ability and age. It essentially goes like this:

Player A's power at 18 years old, from the editor, is 20 current, 100 potential.

A favor tools scout will say the player has 100 potential.

A favor ability scout will say, hmm 80 more points is a long ways away for this player to gain so he'll probably top out at 80 power.

Player B's power at 18 years old from the editor is 60 current, 100 potential.

The favor tools scout will still say he's at 100 potential. The favor ability scout will say, hey he's pretty close to his potential and will likely reach it so he's a 100 potential.

[KRSW]

I would adopt Neutral, which provides more accurate evaluations of prospect potentials, over Favor Tools, which provides more accurate current evaluations.

[billyray1984]

You also need to tamper your expectations regarding prospect development. On the default settings, high school players will usually need multiple years of seasoning in rookie ball since they develop SLOWLY from age 18 to 20.

[Pelican]

To the OP, I would say don’t give up (yet) on those draft picks who appear to have tanked. Particularly if your TCR is over 100, there is a chance they could rally in the minors. As IRL, prospects struggle at first at a level (AA?), and then later find their footing. I would not give up too soon on what were highly-rated prospects. Plus, you don’t have much choice, as there would be no market for them.

I hesitate to wade into the talent versus tools argument. My approach was to favor tools on young (high school) guys, more emphasis on talent for older college guys. That did not always work out. Right now I’m reading a Jim Thorpe biography, including his time with the New York Giants, immediately after his Olympic triumph. Great tools, but even John McGraw struggled to teach him the finer points of the game - so his actual baseball “talent” was suspect. (In my Federal League save, he will have more time to develop, and I expect great things.) YMMV.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

I'm assuming that your settings are close to default, but you may consider lowering TCR if it frustrates you that your players don't always develop.

If recalc is on TCR only changes talent during the season. The player gets a reset when recalc happens.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by dj30harw

Any input would be appreciated. Please make this make sense, its so frustrating.

If you're frustrated try a different scenario. When what you're doing isn't fun, try something different.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by Brad K

If recalc is on TCR only changes talent during the season. The player gets a reset when recalc happens.

You're assuming he's playing historical??

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by jpeters1734

You're assuming he's playing historical??

If he says he's playing the Royals why shouldn't I assume that?

[snepp]

I assumed that he started with a 2023 standard game. I'm guessing that's by far the most commonly played setup amongst those new to OOTP.