How Exactly Does an Historical League Deal With The Spencer Strider Question?

chucksabr · 01-31-2023, 10:57 PM

Here's a guy who has two innings last year, then this year tosses a four-win season on 131 innings with 202 strikeouts against 45 walks and a sub-one whip.

How does an historical league project the career for a guy like this? Is there a known coming-back-to-the-mean element? Or is the game bullish on guys like him? Has anyone checked under the hood on that one?

Rain King · 02-01-2023, 12:43 AM

I'm not sure I understand the question.

Historical in OOTP isn't projecting a career. It is creating ratings based on the historical statistics of the player. So, it will depend on your settings and whether you are basing ratings calculations on 1-year, 3-years, or 5-years and where you set your playing time factors for "Adjust" and "Make Bad".

Are you looking for answers specifically regarding Strider (who is barely a historical player) or for any players with small sample size careers?

chucksabr · 02-01-2023, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain King

I'm not sure I understand the question.

Historical in OOTP isn't projecting a career. It is creating ratings based on the historical statistics of the player. So, it will depend on your settings and whether you are basing ratings calculations on 1-year, 3-years, or 5-years and where you set your playing time factors for "Adjust" and "Make Bad".

Are you looking for answers specifically regarding Strider (who is barely a historical player) or for any players with small sample size careers?

How does the game project the career of a guy with one great rookie season? When you play him out to a full career, does the game tend to regard him as a star? Does it regress his career to a mean? Is it random irrespective of the sim you run?

BIG17EASY · 02-01-2023, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chucksabr

How does the game project the career of a guy with one great rookie season? When you play him out to a full career, does the game tend to regard him as a star? Does it regress his career to a mean? Is it random irrespective of the sim you run?

Are you talking about a guy specifically like Strider for which there is no more historical data beyond his rookie season? At that point, the development engine will take over and things like coaching and work ethic and talent change randomness will determine his career path.

If you're talking about a player with full historical career data, the player's production going forward will be based on a combination of his historical statistics and your historical league settings.

chucksabr · 02-01-2023, 04:15 PM

I think I have enough to go on. Thanks.

Pelican · 02-01-2023, 05:14 PM

Strider at this point would present a quandary for projecting success. Here is a guy with mediocre (at best) minor league stats, not a top prospect, who suddenly and improbably dominated at the major league level. Going forward, his MLB season stats should be given more weight. As to advanced metrics, I wonder how he measures up on FIP, and how would scouts (in OOTP) evaluate his stuff, based on the pitches he throws. It is a confounding mystery to me how this can happen, but it does make baseball more interesting and less predictable, if maddening.

I say maddening because, in our fantasy league, a buddy picked up Strider, who was undrafted through 21 rounds, only because he had a dog named Strider, after the Lord of the Rings character. I kid you not.

01-31-2023, 10:57 PM	#1
chucksabr Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: In the canyons of your mind Posts: 3,190	How Exactly Does an Historical League Deal With The Spencer Strider Question? Here's a guy who has two innings last year, then this year tosses a four-win season on 131 innings with 202 strikeouts against 45 walks and a sub-one whip. How does an historical league project the career for a guy like this? Is there a known coming-back-to-the-mean element? Or is the game bullish on guys like him? Has anyone checked under the hood on that one? __________________ The (English) Baseball League (est. 1888): A History The 1932 Season is Underway Dynasty Mission \| Creation Story \| Subscribe 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 (Great War Hiatus) 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 The OOTP Interview about the Baseball League

02-01-2023, 04:15 PM	#5
chucksabr Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: In the canyons of your mind Posts: 3,190	I think I have enough to go on. Thanks. __________________ The (English) Baseball League (est. 1888): A History The 1932 Season is Underway Dynasty Mission \| Creation Story \| Subscribe 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 (Great War Hiatus) 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 The OOTP Interview about the Baseball League

02-01-2023, 05:14 PM	#6
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 2,886	Strider at this point would present a quandary for projecting success. Here is a guy with mediocre (at best) minor league stats, not a top prospect, who suddenly and improbably dominated at the major league level. Going forward, his MLB season stats should be given more weight. As to advanced metrics, I wonder how he measures up on FIP, and how would scouts (in OOTP) evaluate his stuff, based on the pitches he throws. It is a confounding mystery to me how this can happen, but it does make baseball more interesting and less predictable, if maddening. I say maddening because, in our fantasy league, a buddy picked up Strider, who was undrafted through 21 rounds, only because he had a dog named Strider, after the Lord of the Rings character. I kid you not. __________________ Pelican OOTP 2020-? ”Hard to believe, Harry.” Last edited by Pelican; 02-01-2023 at 05:16 PM.

02-01-2023, 12:43 AM	#2
Rain King Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 3,072 Infractions: 1/1 (1)	I'm not sure I understand the question. Historical in OOTP isn't projecting a career. It is creating ratings based on the historical statistics of the player. So, it will depend on your settings and whether you are basing ratings calculations on 1-year, 3-years, or 5-years and where you set your playing time factors for "Adjust" and "Make Bad". Are you looking for answers specifically regarding Strider (who is barely a historical player) or for any players with small sample size careers?