What's your MO with struggling stars?

[brotherblues]

I got this guy who's been a great ballplayer, has been fantastic for a few seasons, and is still 28 years old. Alas, he hasn't hit at all this current season. Not gonna bench him (yet), but it got me wondering, how do you guys deal with these scenarios? How long do you wait before taking action?

[koohead]

For batters, I have a pretty short leash. If they flounder like that for a couple months, I start looking for other options and he ends up in a part time role. If he improves, he gets his job back full time. If not, and if he is well paid, I look to trade him in the off season (if I have comparable talent waiting in the wings of course).

For SPs who have a good track record, I let them have the year to work it out, and then next year their leash is shortened. RPs will have almost no leash whatsoever...a month of stinking up the joint and I have someone else that can step in (probably an underperforming SP!).

[MathBandit]

For a batter who had established himself and showed no obvious reason for decline (age, injury, scout reports, etc) like in your case - after about 400-500 PAs I might change their spot in the lineup slightly, but nothing major. Wouldn't significantly change their playing time until closer to 900-1200 PAs.

If peripherals were way off (which in OOTP for hitters is really only K% and BB% because of the lack of meaningful process stats) then I might move a little sooner than that.

[kq76]

Originally Posted by koohead

For batters, I have a pretty short leash. If they flounder like that for a couple months, I start looking for other options and he ends up in a part time role. If he improves, he gets his job back full time. If not, and if he is well paid, I look to trade him in the off season (if I have comparable talent waiting in the wings of course).

For SPs who have a good track record, I let them have the year to work it out, and then next year their leash is shortened. RPs will have almost no leash whatsoever...a month of stinking up the joint and I have someone else that can step in (probably an underperforming SP!).

Everything koohead said makes a lot of sense. I especially like the idea of giving SPs more rope, but if injuries are at all realistic you're probably forced to stick it out with them anyway. I think I more go about a half season for starters (batters or pitchers), if I can, however. One month cold is not good, but not something to be too concerned about. Two months is really not good, and something we need to worry about, maybe platoon. Three is flat out bad and we need to do something, probably bench.

Don't give up hope yet though. This past season my starting catcher was under-performing offensively the first 2 or 3 months. So I started playing the 22 year-old catcher more, but then he got cold and his defense wasn't as good so I started the first guy again. Then when we got to the playoffs, most of our big bats went cold, but out of nowhere that first catcher, who never was expected to be an offensive force, got spitting out flames hot and without him we probably wouldn't have won it all.

Have his ratings dipped at all? How's his injury history?

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by kq76

Have his ratings dipped at all? How's his injury history?

Injury ain't it as far as I can tell. He sits about 20 to 30 games a season by design (he stinks against lefties). His ratings look good with a recent scouting... But now that you mention it, they might be lower. I'll check that out in a bit. Might be he got whacked by tcr and my scout is just stubborn.

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by brotherblues

Injury ain't it as far as I can tell. He sits about 20 to 30 games a season by design (he stinks against lefties). His ratings look good with a recent scouting... But now that you mention it, they might be lower. I'll check that out in a bit. Might be he got whacked by tcr and my scout is just stubborn.

Nope, no ratings drop on the scouting report. As for stats, his BB% and SO% are within range of his past performance, it's his BABIP and HRs that plummeted. I played a few weeks more and he got up to 300 ABs still rocking a .620 OPS. That was it for me. Felt sad to bench a guy who'd given me such crazy good WRC+ the last 3 seasons, but it needed to be done.

[MathBandit]

Yeah that's wild to me, especially if BB% and K% are in line and it's only BABIP and HRs. It would take me probably about 1500 PAs to bench a stud.

[DJ_Jak_32]

I blame the code and think the developers are out to get me

[JerseyPirate]

With this type of player, my first move would be to bench him against LHP and have him subbed every 6-7 games vs. RHP. If he doesn't improve after 3 weeks, then I limit his time more.

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by JerseyPirate

With this type of player, my first move would be to bench him against LHP and have him subbed every 6-7 games vs. RHP. If he doesn't improve after 3 weeks, then I limit his time more.

That's the actual way he's been used. Usually sits against LHP unless I don't have a viable option. Part of why his wRC+ was so high the past few seasons.

Age: 25 wRC+: 131 in 439 PA
Age: 26 wRC+: 128 in 599 PA
Age: 27 wRC+: 147 in 556 PA
Age: 28 wRC+: 69 in 315 PA

What are some comparable examples IRL and how did the managers handle it? Maybe... Yelich? Yelich shows a similar drop at the same age, losing nearly all his power production. Still, he went from MVP to a "right at or slightly above" league average bat. So while there's surely been frustration with him, it's harder to bench a guy who isn't actually playing below league average.

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by brotherblues

That's the actual way he's been used. Usually sits against LHP unless I don't have a viable option. Part of why his wRC+ was so high the past few seasons.

Age: 25 wRC+: 131 in 439 PA
Age: 26 wRC+: 128 in 599 PA
Age: 27 wRC+: 147 in 556 PA
Age: 28 wRC+: 69 in 315 PA

What are some comparable examples IRL and how did the managers handle it? Maybe... Yelich? Yelich shows a similar drop at the same age, losing nearly all his power production. Still, he went from MVP to a "right at or slightly above" league average bat. So while there's surely been frustration with him, it's harder to bench a guy who isn't actually playing below league average.

Happens all the time, since 300 PAs is pretty meaningless on a results level. Joey Gallo is probably one example, and the Yankees were clowned for giving up on him. Baez and Grandal also had awful starts.

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

Happens all the time, since 300 PAs is pretty meaningless on a results level. Joey Gallo is probably one example, and the Yankees were clowned for giving up on him. Baez and Grandal also had awful starts.

Yeah I benched my guy for a week then put him back in the regular lineup vs RHP. Dropped him to the bottom of the order though. Going to roll with that and re evaluate late August / early Sept.

[GoPedro99]

Bellinger may be the best example of this. Went 138 - 120 - 161 - 112(Covid Year) wRC+ and then fell off with a 47 in 2021(95 games) and a 79 this year

[brotherblues]

Originally Posted by GoPedro99

Bellinger may be the best example of this. Went 138 - 120 - 161 - 112(Covid Year) wRC+ and then fell off with a 47 in 2021(95 games) and a 79 this year

Oof, that's a big one. I don't think that one has to do with normal statistical variations. Something changed in the player on some level. That's gotta be in the top 5 all time age 21, 22, and 23 seasons by a hitter. Maybe it affected him psychologically.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by brotherblues

Yeah I benched my guy for a week then put him back in the regular lineup vs RHP. Dropped him to the bottom of the order though. Going to roll with that and re evaluate late August / early Sept.

I'd do a rescout and also check OSA ratings. If they're both still good, yea, keep him in the lineup but at the bottom. If the ratings aren't good, then maybe take him out of the lineup entirely.

[billyray1984]

If a rescout doesn't show a ratings drop, his BB and K are within his usual range and his babip is horrendous, just chalk it up to bad babip luck and the situation will probably correct itself in the long run.

A season is a lot of baseball and not a lot of baseball at the same time.

If his ratings starts to drop and the babip still continues to stink (or worse the babip gets better and he still struggles), it might be time to look at other avenues. For established players, usually that means trading them since a demotion in the minors will piss them off.

[Pelican]

Agree with the above with two observations.

First, obviously if you have a bench player or a young guy in the minors with a strong profile, time to give him a chance. If you don’t, well no. And I would not panic and trade for a new guy. (And of course would not trade the slumping guy - the very essence of “selling low”.)

Second, bench the guy for more than a single game. Then, perhaps let him pinch hit once or twice. If he shows any sign of revival, put him right back into the starting lineup. A guy with a pedigree certainly deserves that consideration. But a guy who isn’t contributing does not deserve to start (especially if you are fortunate enough to have alternatives).

[brotherblues]

It's funny, benched him for a week, then gave him another shot and he put up OPS over 900 the last two months of the season and playoffs. Was like hitting a switch. Shipped him in the offseason though because he was entering his final year and I have some prospects ready at his position.

[mytreds]

Individual batters are less consequential to poor team performance in my eyes, so if he’s consistent and then suddenly gets the yips, just leave him in. There’s 8 other guys in the lineup that can make up for his slumping.

He is 28, which is his prime years, so it also wouldn’t hurt to look to see what the trade market value could bring you, especially if you have a good replacement. But if you are playing for realism, you ride him out until the end of the year.

[monkeyman576]

Looks like he overperformed his rookie season and is having a correction. His eye rating is not that great and maybe pitchers are catching on to him.