Statistical Anomaly

DrSatan · 07-19-2022, 10:59 AM

I just noticed this weird season Tatis Jr had in 2037. 353 strikeouts and -6.7 WAR seems a little excessive based on his ratings. I play with scouts set to 100% accurate. I checked the editor and his ratings are correct, so no issues there. I've poiked around and can't find any other instances yet. Just curious if anyone else has experienced this.

bwiese3908 · 07-19-2022, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrSatan

I just noticed this weird season Tatis Jr had in 2037. 353 strikeouts and -6.7 WAR seems a little excessive based on his ratings. I play with scouts set to 100% accurate. I checked the editor and his ratings are correct, so no issues there. I've poiked around and can't find any other instances yet. Just curious if anyone else has experienced this.

I would check the leaderboards... Sometimes sims get out of whack with stats in general.

What are the pitching leaders looking like in strikeout totals? Also the batting average leaders?

DrSatan · 07-19-2022, 11:09 AM

Nothing abnormal in the league history. Batter strikeouts look consistant per player. High strike out guys are consistant with their ratings, and no serious jumps like Tatis had. Might be a fluke.

bwiese3908 · 07-19-2022, 11:22 AM

Yeah, could be... He is getting old and certainly declining.

I guess the next question is... Why would he be played so much when he is having that poor of a season... and his decline at SS is rough and with a WAR that terrible it leads me to believe he is the starting SS.

BarneyRubble · 07-19-2022, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bwiese3908

I guess the next question is... Why would he be played so much when he is having that poor of a season...

I've seen this happen way too often when the 'ratings' portion of the 'AI Player Evaluation' is set too high. I don't know if that's the reason, but it's a good starting point. Couple that with a manager that has a higher than average "Ratings Value' and he could K every AB for the whole season and he'd still start because of his 'ratings'.

DrSatan · 07-19-2022, 11:35 AM

His ratings are still really good, so it makes sense he would be the starter. As I said, scouts are set to 100% accurate, and the editor settings match the ratings. The stats are just really weird. I just signed him as a FA, so we'll see how this season goes.

DrSatan · 07-19-2022, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarneyRubble

I've seen this happen way too often when the 'ratings' portion of the 'AI Player Evaluation' is set too high. I don't know if that's the reason, but it's a good starting point. Couple that with a manager that has a higher than average "Ratings Value' and he could K every AB for the whole season and he'd still start because of his 'ratings'.

I was curious about other "old" players with high ratings, so I checked out a few. Nothing unusual so far. Stats are what I would expect. Nothing extreme, but I'll see how the next season goes and throw a post up later.

Brad K · 07-19-2022, 11:41 AM

The game doesn't limit implausible outliers caused by randomness.

DrSatan · 07-19-2022, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

The game doesn't limit implausible outliers caused by randomness.

Guess I'll chalk it up to his wife left him that season.

Brad K · 07-19-2022, 11:44 AM

I don't have the ratings but the game was on three year recalc and there is no plausible three year input that could result in these actual ratings when dropping 1981 and adding 1984

Tony Armas from Pirate Moneyball save

1982

AB 575
HRs 44 (league leader)
BA .320
Slugging .617 (league leader)

1983

AB 470
HRs 12
BA .179
Slugging .315

venflaalachi · 07-19-2022, 03:03 PM

I think that sometimes when players don't have backups for whatever reason they end up playing a large portion of the season at 0% energy and are just terrible since they are tired. Might have happened to Tatis Jr. here.

DrSatan · 07-19-2022, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by venflaalachi

I think that sometimes when players don't have backups for whatever reason they end up playing a large portion of the season at 0% energy and are just terrible since they are tired. Might have happened to Tatis Jr. here.

Maybe. The following season was more in line with what i expected statistically. Just a weird fluke I guess.

07-19-2022, 10:59 AM	#1
DrSatan All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Parts Unknown Posts: 588	Statistical Anomaly I just noticed this weird season Tatis Jr had in 2037. 353 strikeouts and -6.7 WAR seems a little excessive based on his ratings. I play with scouts set to 100% accurate. I checked the editor and his ratings are correct, so no issues there. I've poiked around and can't find any other instances yet. Just curious if anyone else has experienced this. Attached Images

07-19-2022, 11:41 AM	#8
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,658 Infractions: 0/2 (3)	The game doesn't limit implausible outliers caused by randomness. __________________ . Pirates Play Moneyball 1951-2008 Ratings and League Totals Modifiers A new pre-calc file! (Applause!) Settings and Auto-calc Popular Opinions and Undisputable Facts The cover up is usually more damaging than the original act.

07-19-2022, 11:44 AM	#10
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,658 Infractions: 0/2 (3)	I don't have the ratings but the game was on three year recalc and there is no plausible three year input that could result in these actual ratings when dropping 1981 and adding 1984 Tony Armas from Pirate Moneyball save 1982 AB 575 HRs 44 (league leader) BA .320 Slugging .617 (league leader) 1983 AB 470 HRs 12 BA .179 Slugging .315 __________________ . Pirates Play Moneyball 1951-2008 Ratings and League Totals Modifiers A new pre-calc file! (Applause!) Settings and Auto-calc Popular Opinions and Undisputable Facts The cover up is usually more damaging than the original act. Last edited by Brad K; 07-19-2022 at 11:45 AM.

07-19-2022, 11:09 AM	#3
DrSatan All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Parts Unknown Posts: 588	Nothing abnormal in the league history. Batter strikeouts look consistant per player. High strike out guys are consistant with their ratings, and no serious jumps like Tatis had. Might be a fluke.

07-19-2022, 11:22 AM	#4
bwiese3908 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 145	Yeah, could be... He is getting old and certainly declining. I guess the next question is... Why would he be played so much when he is having that poor of a season... and his decline at SS is rough and with a WAR that terrible it leads me to believe he is the starting SS.

07-19-2022, 11:35 AM	#6
DrSatan All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Parts Unknown Posts: 588	His ratings are still really good, so it makes sense he would be the starter. As I said, scouts are set to 100% accurate, and the editor settings match the ratings. The stats are just really weird. I just signed him as a FA, so we'll see how this season goes.

07-19-2022, 03:03 PM	#11
venflaalachi Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 280	I think that sometimes when players don't have backups for whatever reason they end up playing a large portion of the season at 0% energy and are just terrible since they are tired. Might have happened to Tatis Jr. here.