A Strictly Homegrown Padres

[MrDov]

In a baseball universe beginning in 2022, with copies of the real life MLB, ***, KBO, CBL, LMB, HH, and IBL full of fictional players, I am attempting the challenge of being Manager and General Manager of an MLB organization that only deals with homegrown players. And the definition I’m using is not just adding players pre-MLB debut, but players signing with my organization as their very first professional organization at any level. This means the only way I can add anyone to my organization is through the amateur draft, international amateur free agency, or as an undrafted free agency.

It’s quite the undertaking, and one that may lead to some wonky roster construction, which is why I’m planning on personally managing every single regular and postseason game. It will also force me to be very cautious with how I manage my roster, especially my 40-man roster as losing a player on waivers could mean losing a very valuable depth piece with no easy way to replace that depth. I also anticipate aggressive service time manipulation, as I’ll have to maximize the control I have over players.

I kicked off this universe by taking over the San Diego Padres and taking part in a fantasy draft to populate rosters. I didn’t have a strict plan for the draft other than prioritizing youth and players with little to no major league service time. Beyond that, I spent the first few rounds taking who I thought was the best player available at each pick. I selected 21st overall and with that pick I took Enrique Borges, a 23 year old Dominican 2B with a big bat. With my second pick I also took an offensive focused player, this time 22 year old Colombian 1B Tony Conchas. Third was Adrian Hernandez, a young SP I anticipate leading my rotation for years to come. I personally handled the first 100 rounds of the draft before letting the AI pick the rest of the organization for me.

Overall I was happy with the Padres organization assembled in the draft. I ended up with an organization filled with high upside young players on the brink of being major league ready. Time will tell if the inaugural 2022 season will be a struggle or not, but either way I anticipate the Padres’ window of contention being wide open beginning in 2023.

In the immediate aftermath of the various fantasy drafts across my new baseball universe, I was able to sign a handful of lower end prospects that went undrafted in their respective league’s drafts. Then, I began my first of two planned rounds of scouting for all players in the top three teams within my organization. I wanted to do a thorough job of scouting for two reasons. The first being an audit of all the candidates to make the opening day roster. The second reason was to increase my confidence in any potential pre-opening day extensions I may offer to players.

Unfortunately, this first round of scouting revealed my draft wasn’t nearly as successful as I thought. My scout docked the ratings for a significant amount of my key players. I went from an organization filled with blossoming young stars, to an organization with some upside but very little wiggle room if I want to be competitive while sticking to my homegrown rule.

On to Opening Day…

[MrDov]

No idea how long this save file and dynasty report will live on for, but adding a place holder comment for an index on the very slight chance it's necessary

[MrDov]

With updated player ratings tempering expectations, I realized that this inaugural 2022 season was not going to include the Padres window of contention opening. My focus quickly shifted to 2023 and beyond.

Spring Training and the buildup to Opening Day was mostly uneventful outside of a couple news items:

• 2B Enrique Borges, my first round pick, suffered a sprained elbow one week into Spring Training and would be out for five weeks, locking in my tentative plan to start him in the minors.
• SP Adrian Hernandez, my third round pick, signed a contract extension that will keep him under team control for 8 years through the 2029 season. It’s an 8 year/$49M contract with that final year being a team option for $9.4M.
• SP Jesus Galvez, my fourth round pick, let extension negotiations bleed into the start of the season but will (hopefully) soon be signing an 8 year/$60M contract extension.

With the realization that the 2022 season would be an uncompetitive one, I decided to fully commit to starting the season with all my franchise cornerstone players in the minors in an attempt to gain one or more additional years of team control. The exceptions to this being SPs Adrian Hernandez and Jesus Galvez, CL Antonio Gonzalez, C Miguel Cruz, IF Jon Rodriguez, and OF Andy Castro. Everyone else on the Opening Day roster I do not anticipate being on the major league roster long term.



MLB’s Preseason Projections agree, giving my Opening Day roster an expected record of 49-113. Of course various prospect promotions throughout the season will help exceed that record, but even just finishing 2022 with a .500 record seems like a goal out of reach.

For my long term outlook I was happy to see the Padres get the top spot in the Minor League System Rankings, with two top 10 prospects, 9 top 100 prospects, and 25 top 200 prospects. Only 4 of those top 200 prospects are at a level below AA, highlighting both how quickly the Padres major league team should improve but also how important it will be to have a strong amateur draft and international amateur free agency this season.



And let the season begin…

[MrDov]

4/24/22
The first two weeks of the season with my roster of misfits provides a glimmer of hope for the season, squeezing out a 7-5 record. However, it's clear this is unsustainable as most of the Padres team stats are mediocre at best and the Pythag record is under .500. The winning record is due to large part to players exceeding their talent levels and luck with stringing hits together, but I’ll gladly ride the hot players as long as they stay hot. The playoffs still aren't on my mind as the rest of the NL West has performed as well as the Padres have, everyone is bunched between 8-4 and 6-6.

It’s at this point when we've crossed the threshold for a full year of service time, and I’ll slowly start promoting the prospects that demonstrate they’re MLB ready. The first two additions are 1B Tony Conchas, who in his first 13 AAA games slashed .412/.475/.902 and slugged 8 HRs, and OF Adam Moriarty who also in 13 AAA games slashed .351/.361/.544 though he had some fielding and baserunning issues that tempered his overall value. These two players should add some firepower to a lineup that desperately needs it, and hopefully Moriarty’s defensive woes are simply a small sample size issue and he can provide the solid defense he’s capable of in either corner outfield spot.

[MrDov]

6/1/22
May concluded with back to back wins, providing a silver lining for what was otherwise a dreadful six week stretch. The 7-5 start proved to be more fluke than prediction, as the Padres now find themselves 11 games under .500 with a 19-30 record. I can’t even blame luck, as the Pythagorean record is an even worse 15-34. The team’s run differential of -108 looks even worse when you consider the second worst run differential in MLB is the Athletics’ distant -64.



The current record is certainly a team effort. The team ERA of 5.89 ranks 29th in the majors, second only to the Rockies. Starting pitching has had a really tough go at it, getting knocked around early in games. This has led to an excessive amount of short starts, which has served to highlight exactly how little depth the bullpen currently has. It feels like once a game a reliever will have a solid first inning or two, but is forced to come out one additional inning than ideal and implodes.

For as bad as the pitching has been, they look like a staff of all-stars compared to the other half of the team. The team batting WAR is negative, and this is despite Conchas being as good as advertised through his first 36 games. The final offensive dead weight was finally DFA’d two days ago. He, also through 36 games, managed to accumulate -1.2 WAR, more than offsetting Conchas’s team leading 1.0 WAR. Bats weren’t the only issue, as the defense might have been the worst component of the team to date. This was due to the roster construction leading to multiple players being forced to move up a position on the defensive spectrum. This may have been manageable with a better pitching staff, but with the current one there were simply way too many balls in play that the stretched defensive players couldn’t handle. The roster was completely devoid of any true SS until two days ago.

All that being said, the future seems brighter than the record indicates. After many prospect promotions the last six weeks, the roster is in a fairly finalized state to get through the rest of the season. The one exception is the bullpen, as most impact relief prospects are still a full year away from being MLB ready. But the addition of a true defensive SS changes the whole infield from being a negative to a positive as solid defenders now get to settle into their correct roles. The OF is full of strong two-way players, though admittedly the current starting CF would be more comfortable playing in a corner but early results have been good. The pitching staff has faced lots of adversity recently but has turned in a few strong starts to wrap up May and is poised to keep the momentum going with a strong defensive lineup to provide support.

[MrDov]

6/15/22
Any sliver of optimism for this season that came through in the last update has been more than crushed. So far in May the team’s record is 2-10. Tony Conchas did provide a bit of a distraction, compiling a 33 game hitting streak that was just snapped in a game he still reached base twice via walk.

However, the purpose of this update isn’t for anything related to the major league team but rather to provide a summary of my first amateur draft. The draft pool itself was an interesting one, at least according to my scout. Overall there was a standard amount of projected stars, but a deep pool of projected starters. The projected stars were an even mix of pitchers and batters, but the tier below strongly leaned batters, and specifically outfielders. My draft plan was to go best available at every pick, which based on the composition of the draft pool led to me using 7 of my 20 selections on outfielders.

My notable picks:

• I had the 21st overall selection and with that pick I took Justin McColley, a SP out of an Ohio HS. I went well above slot to sign him, giving him $7.5M to make him a member of the Padres organization. My scout sees him as a future ace, an 80-grade SP with a four pitch mix, all of which have future values of 60+. He’s projected to have average control, but above average movement and top of the line stuff. The OSA bureau disagrees however, giving him a 45 projected overall value.

• With my second pick I took Emanuel Glass, a CF from University of Arkansas. He’s coming out of college fairly developed already, going straight to Low-A to begin his professional career. Scouting sources are close on him, giving him either a 50 or 55 overall potential rating. Assuming he develops as expected, he’ll provide solidly above average defense in CF while swinging an average bat.

• My third round selection was Caleb Pope, a SP from University of Alabama. He’s projected to be a back of the rotation arm with three average or better pitches, however I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up in the bullpen and becomes a solid relief pitcher.

• There were two SPs my scout had 80 grades on but OSA had as 20s. I was hoping to snag both as high upsides gambles, but by my fourth selection one was taken so I jumped at the other. Tristan McCormick was selected out of a New Jersey HS. If you believe my scout, his profile screams elite reliever with a 70 fastball and 75 grade curveball to pair with 45 grade control. McCormick has a third pitch, a 30 grade changeup, so he’ll be a starter in the low minors but barring a pleasant surprise in his development, he’ll end up in the bullpen at some point. If you believe OSA, he’s an org depth guy that will get a handful of years in the minors but won’t ever reach the majors.

• With my fifth selection I took David Martinez, a prep catcher from Indiana. My scout has him as an average bat paired with an average glove which combines to be a solid profile for a catcher. OSA likes him even more, bumping up his contact and power grades. That being said, this is the pick where my overslot first rounder makes an impact as it’s unlikely Martinez will sign without an unexpected change to my financials.

• In the ninth round I took Willie Alonso, a RF out of Florida State University. He was already 23 years old at the time of the draft but this is apparent in his development as he’s already a 40 overall player. His upside is capped with only a 45 overall potential grade but that’s alright as he already feels borderline MLB ready. Based on my scout’s grades, his profile looks like a 4th OF that can provide solid defense in either corner or can play CF in a pinch. He’s a contact hitter. His path to the majors relies on how his power and eye develop.

• My tenth selection was Thimotée Cochet, a prep 1B from Michigan. He’s bat only and should rarely see time in the field. His lefty bat profiles as slightly above average and according to my scout that probably won’t be enough to get him to the majors. However, he’s only one or two small tweaks from improving his bat to the point where he profiles as a major league starter. OSA already sees him as that latter profile.

[MrDov]

8/1/22 (38-62, 5th in NLW - 18.5GB)
I used the All-Star Break as the time to pivot from scout based lineup decisions to stat based. Immediate results were positive, starting the second half with a four game winning streak. Though the 1-6 stretch since shows that the team’s issues run much deeper than simply lineup construction which I knew was the case. It’s obvious if you look at the individual performances of guys on the roster. Unfortunately in analyzing the roster, there are very few players, especially on the offensive side, that at this point feel like they belong on a roster that wins enough to make the playoffs. It is possible that age is a factor as a significant portion of the roster is under 25, but guys I thought would hit the ground running in the majors have not, and in some cases the only reason they’re still in the majors is because there’s no better replacements in the minors.

On the offensive side, there have only been three true standout players to this point. First baseman Tony Conchas, my second round pick in the inaugural fantasy draft, has been the Padres’ best offensive performer to date. He’s on pace for a 3 WAR season as a 23 year old. Shortstop Alberto Samario was a late callup relative to my top prospects, but he’s performed well since debuting. Power is lacking and I don’t think will ever come, but he played his way into the leadoff spot and has provided a league average offensive line and average glove which I’m happy with for a shortstop. The final standout player worth mentioning is third baseman Josh Bock. I actually didn’t even select him in the inaugural draft myself as he wasn’t taken until the 191st round, long after I had given up draft responsibility to my assistant GM. Although I do anticipate the 30 year old losing his starting spot to one of a couple contending prospects, he does have a few more years of control and I’m sure at the least will provide a solid lefty bat off the bench.

To this point I’d describe my starting outfield as “meh”. No one has been bad, but no one has been good either. The real disappointment so far has been at catcher and second base. Enrique Borges, my first round pick in the opening draft, has been outright bad since a strong first two weeks in the majors. There’s a strong chance he sees AAA again before the end of the season. He is only 23, so there’s plenty of time for him to reach his potential, but it is worrying for the plan to rely solely on homegrown players if my first pick turns out to be a dud. This plan gives so little wiggle room. Catcher is the other position that gives me concern. My planned starting catcher Miguel Cruz couldn’t hit in the majors, and now can’t hit at AAA. He’s also already 27 so unless this has been a fluke season or he’s a late developer, he might never see meaningful playing time in the majors again. I took a bit of a gamble when I drafted my other catcher, Mitch Delker, due to his poor contact ratings. The gamble has not paid off so far as he’s batting .199 through his first 150 major league plate appearances. Though Delker has been solid behind the plate and I think his increased playing time is partially responsible for the improvements the pitching staff has seen recently.

I have more optimism about the future of the pitching half of the Padres’ roster. The staff ERA isn’t great, but they have a middle of the pack FIP which I think is more indicative of their true talent as the Padres have had a league worst defense to date. The staff has been led by starter Jesus Galvez, the sole Padres All-Star this season. I think closer Antonio Gonzalez was just as deserving of an All-Star spot but unfortunately didn’t make it. What’s been a pleasant surprise is that the players that are mostly roster fillers have held their own while pitching prospects get a little more time in the minors. The one cause for concern is Adrian Hernandez, the first pitcher I selected in the opening draft. He’s had a rough first half to start his major league career, currently carrying a 6.93 ERA through his first 20 starts. He’s been killed by home runs, giving up over two per nine innings through the end of June. The month of July he was able to keep home runs under control, and the results show. He is still only 22, so I’m hoping July was a sign of things to come and he’ll continue to improve and develop into the ace I expect him to be.

The one other notable thing that has happened since the last update is international amateur free agency where I maxed out my $5M pool in signing four players. Shortstop Angelo Orozco out of Venezuela is the headliner. My scout gives him 80-grade overall potential, with all batting potentials 65 or better and average shortstop defense. OSA is even higher on him than my scout is. Next is outfielder Edgar Buentello from the Dominican Republic. His glove is very questionable and if he doesn’t improve he’ll end up at 1B/DH but his bat is projected to be so good that it doesn’t matter, with 70-grade contact and power. I also signed starting pitcher Nelson Santana, also from the Dominican Republic. It’s very likely he’ll end up in the bullpen as he only has two quality pitches, but he should be lights out coming out of the bullpen. The final player signed is Jose Aragon, a starter from Colombia. He has solid individual ratings but my scout only has him as a 30 potential player. I’m hoping his individual ratings are more indicative of his eventual output than his overall rating is.

There also was a prospect rating update and the Padres kept the number one ranking despite some graduations, helped by Orozco sliding in as my top prospect and sixth overall and Buentello selected as my third best prospect and 21st overall. Despite the gloom and doom that the current major league season has provided, I do have to remember that my organization is filled with promising prospects and if I’m patient, I’ll be rewarded with competitive major league baseball as more and more prospects debut and replace older roster fillers or underperforming younger guys.