A Question regarding resigning a young player.

SkipBranham · 05-05-2022, 11:32 AM

Still fairly new to the game.

Doing a Cincinnati Red's rebuild.

Through 85 games it's become clear that Johnathon India is my best player. He's 26 years old and in the last year of his contract. I knew I wanted to lock him up for a few years so I signed him to a 3 year/ 4.4 million extension (1.4m a year average)

Through my research it seems that would make him roughly the 24th highest paid 2nd baseman. Does this seem cheap to anyone else? Am I missing something? Did I get a good deal on this?

Any feedback would be appreciated.

Bryan

Biggio509 · 05-05-2022, 01:25 PM

I am really not sure. How do you project him? Will he be a top player in the next few years that is likely to command more?

I am not so much Billy Bean best bang for the buck. Strange because I am an economist by trade and education so I understand the idea. I kind of keep that in mind but the more important question to me is what is the tradeoff. How important is he to the rebuild. What are you giving up? Will you have a hole if you pay him that and don't have someone in the minors to bring up to fill an important hole? What is your budget space.

Ironically or maybe not ironically being an economist I don't look as much to if I am paying more or less than market. I look at what is the projected benefit vs. the cost. The money cost tells what I will give up. If I have a close to as good prospect coming up I can build around I would trade him and fill other holes with that money. If I don't have the next big thing in the minors and the amount will still allow me to get other pieces I need I will resign him.

You have to way the budget space taken up and what you have as well if you if over pay what a market price would be. It is ok to overpay a bit if the benefit means you are building a strong team going forward. I am not saying go and get that 30 million a guy the benefit isn't worth the cost when you are a small market team. I am saying the question isn't just am I paying market price but what is my expected return from doing so. The ability to challenge for the playoffs can help you get more attendance and bigger future money. So while the Yankees might not pay as much for him, they also would get less return than a popular player whose WAR might put you in the playoffs in the next 3 years would for a small market team.

In short it is ok to overpay a little for what the big boys might not want if it helps the long term goals and profits. Your impact on profits might be bigger than the Phils or Astros signing him as just a replacement to reload.

Pelican · 05-05-2022, 01:30 PM

I think you did him a huge favor, by paying far more than he would/could have earned in his pre-arbitration years, without extending him beyond that period. He can re-negotiate in three years, or test free agency. If he plays well, he will have all of the leverage. I would have tried for seven years, with escalating amounts for the last four years, to reflect the fact he could pursue arbitration and then free agency. It's a gamble, but locking up a good young player makes sense, as compared to having to overpay him after three years. Plus it secures him for the team, one less spot in the lineup to worry over, and sends a message that you are committed to the future.

SkipBranham · 05-05-2022, 03:32 PM

When I get home from work I'll reply with a screenshot of the particulars. But in short, yes I do in fact see him as a HUGE building block of my immediate and long term future. He's been an on base machine for me thus far and he's solid with the stick. He's also a five star guy potential wise.
I can't remember off the top of my head what he's currently rated at star wise but I think it's at least 3 ½. And to answer your question I don't see anything in my feeders that can produce like he can even with time. I could be wrong in this as I'm still fairly new to the game.

I also weighed in the fact that he's very popular locally and rapidly becoming popular nationally.

Like I said I'll get some better numbers when I get home in a few hours, but I think I'm sitting at something like $20,000,000 to $30,000,000 under budget right now. I made a few moves to get rid of some overpaid vets that really helped.

SkipBranham · 05-05-2022, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelican

I think you did him a huge favor, by paying far more than he would/could have earned in his pre-arbitration years, without extending him beyond that period. He can re-negotiate in three years, or test free agency. If he plays well, he will have all of the leverage. I would have tried for seven years, with escalating amounts for the last four years, to reflect the fact he could pursue arbitration and then free agency. It's a gamble, but locking up a good young player makes sense, as compared to having to overpay him after three years. Plus it secures him for the team, one less spot in the lineup to worry over, and sends a message that you are committed to the future.

I did in fact try to negotiate a longer deal but he wasn't having it. Very good A.I. built into the negotiations from what I've seen.

Dave Stieb II · 05-05-2022, 04:00 PM

I happen to have started with a Reds save and he certainly looks like a stud.

You absolutely did not do him any favors and you most assuredly made a good deal if I have the timing of the deal correct, and I think I do.

Assuming this deal was signed after/at the end of the 2022 season, India was under four more years of club control. In my save, he would be paid the league mimimum of $700K for one more season, then be salary arbitration eligible for three more years.

But the key is.....his estimated arbitation amounts (in my game) for those three years are $7.7M....$11M.....and $14.3M......and he's only played 4 games of 48 so far due to an injury (expected back soon) so those numbers could certainly increase over the next 1.5 seasons.

So you're paying him $1.4M per year for three seasons in which he is projected to make $700K/ $7.7M/$11M.....and he will still have one arbitration year left when this contract is over....prior to which you can choose whether to try and extend him further, trade him or whatever.

Kudos, my friend. For the measly 'risk' of $1.4M/year you locked down one of the better young players in the game for a three year period in which he was/is projected to make $19.4M (total) at least in my save.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to speak to Mr. India and his representatives in MY game. LOL

Edit: Sorry, in re-reading your OP to ensure I had the numbers correct and this wasn't a dream for anyone in OOTP Reds management, I see htat you did say you signed this deal after 85 games (of the 2022 season I assume). This makes no difference to what I just said though.

Dave Stieb II · 05-05-2022, 04:31 PM

Upon further review, and to answer your other question in your OP......yes, this does seem cheap to me. Decidely so. Strangely so. By a good margin.

I just ventured into contract negotiations with MY Mr. India, who is on the IL, and he suggested $5.8M for one year.....a year in which he is scheduled to be auto-renewal at the $700K minimum. Needless to say I quickly exited the negotiation room with an imaginary "thank you, don't call us we'll call you, have a nice day".

Long story short......How you ever got him to re-up for those three years at that price is beyond comprehension.

SkipBranham · 05-05-2022, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

One thing I will correct you on though is saying that he was in the final year of his contract. If he is 26, it's no later than the end of the 2022 season or the start of the 2023 season, in which case he has four more years of club control left (one at league minimum and three of arbitration).
Or.....if you're not playing a standard game.... or have changed the league finances.....than that might change things. I don't do fictional but it doesn't sound like that is what you're playing.

No fictional league for me.

Perhaps I misunderstand the arbitration and contact renewal phases of the game. Usually it seems like it will show you if they are heading into arbitration or auto renewal? I'm still very green in a lot of aspects with this sim.

Edit: you basically validated me with your response. In my mind with the season he's having and his projections when he does come up for arbitration I figured he would be somewhere in the 10 million a year ballpark. I will post the contract shortly. I think I may have added a few small incentives but nothing crazy.

His initial demand was 1.5 million for 1 year.

Dave Stieb II · 05-05-2022, 04:47 PM

If you look at the salaries page, you will see where each player stands for the coming years.
And, as you head into the off-season, you are notified as to who your free agents are and who is arbitration eligible. The rest of the players on your 40 man roster are auto-renewed at the league minimum.

Dave Stieb II · 05-05-2022, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkipBranham

No fictional league for me.

Perhaps I misunderstand the arbitration and contact renewal phases of the game. Usually it seems like it will show you if they are heading into arbitration or auto renewal? I'm still very green in a lot of aspects with this sim.

Edit: you basically validated me with your response. In my mind with the season he's having and his projections when he does come up for arbitration I figured he would be somewhere in the 10 million a year ballpark. I will post the contract shortly. I think I may have added a few small incentives but nothing crazy.

His initial demand was 1.5 million for 1 year.

I'd be interested in seeing a screenshot of your salaries page, too, to see if I have my timing correct but, obviously, that is your choice. No arm twisting here.

SkipBranham · 05-05-2022, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

I'd be interested in seeing a screenshot of your salaries page, too, to see if I have my timing correct but, obviously, that is your choice. No arm twisting here.

Absolutely man! All fun here.
I may have made a mistake in my OP. Through 85 games or so is where I'm currently at. I actually extended him somewhere around the 60 game mark. I'll be home shortly and will post accordingly. MY Mr. India was a total pleasure to do business with.

SkipBranham · 05-05-2022, 06:39 PM

So I was a little low on my figures, not much though.

Also, he was 25 at the time. And I'm only 65 games in. Still close with my numbers. I forgot I escalated the contract also.

Had I not signed him now, he would have went to arbitration in the 2024 season right? End of 23/beginning 24?

Edit: I just realized I added an opt out year for the 3rd and final year. Which I'm sure he will. Does that mean if he does opt out then it will go to arbitration?

SkipBranham · 05-05-2022, 06:46 PM

I was correct about my budget though.

tcblcommish · 05-05-2022, 07:08 PM

Why is your whole team making 700k? I had that issue using a fictional league and had to restart because the finances were so screwed up. Hope that's not the case. Did you trade away everyone that is making more than the league minimum?

Sent from my SM-G998W using Tapatalk

MathBandit · 05-05-2022, 08:08 PM

Looks like the list is sorted by 2022 Salaries and we're only seeing the bottom half.

Dave Stieb II · 05-05-2022, 10:48 PM

Yes, it's only the bottom half of the salaries page, sorted by the 2022 salary amounts. The total of $102M gives it away. There must be larger salaries (Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas?) at the top and missing from the screenshot.

Dave Stieb II · 05-05-2022, 11:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkipBranham

So I was a little low on my figures, not much though.

Also, he was 25 at the time. And I'm only 65 games in. Still close with my numbers. I forgot I escalated the contract also.

Had I not signed him now, he would have went to arbitration in the 2024 season right? End of 23/beginning 24?

Edit: I just realized I added an opt out year for the 3rd and final year. Which I'm sure he will. Does that mean if he does opt out then it will go to arbitration?

LOL. Yes, this is a little different than you originally posted and not quite as appealing by hey, so what, that is the joy of learning the game.

I would bet my last dollar that he will opt out after the '24 season and then you are back into arbitration territory. So don't count on having him for that $1.6M you negotiated in the third year of the extension. If he performs anywhere near expecations, multiply that number by 5 as an early estimate.

The thing I can't figure out is this: In my save, he makes the $700K minimum in 2022 and 2023 and then is arbitration eligible in 24-25-26. (I posted the arb projections earlier)
Your salary page indicates he's now arbitration eligible through '27 in your game, and his pro service time and length of time on the secondary roster differs slightly from my save. I have no idea why this is and therefore can't really make an intelligent comment on what exactly has happened.

In other words, I'm not sure if you simply overpaid him slightly (from the minimum) for the first two years, after which he'll most assuredly opt out, or just what exactly is going on. I don't think he'd have been eligible for the minimum still in 2024 even in your save but that's what your salaries page APPEARS to indicate. He shouldn't have been, in which case you still made a cost saving deal even if/when he opts out.

MathBandit · 05-06-2022, 08:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

LOL. Yes, this is a little different than you originally posted and not quite as appealing by hey, so what, that is the joy of learning the game.

I would bet my last dollar that he will opt out after the '24 season and then you are back into arbitration territory. So don't count on having him for that $1.6M you negotiated in the third year of the extension. If he performs anywhere near expecations, multiply that number by 5 as an early estimate.

The thing I can't figure out is this: In my save, he makes the $700K minimum in 2022 and 2023 and then is arbitration eligible in 24-25-26. (I posted the arb projections earlier)
Your salary page indicates he's now arbitration eligible through '27 in your game, and his pro service time and length of time on the secondary roster differs slightly from my save. I have no idea why this is and therefore can't really make an intelligent comment on what exactly has happened.

In other words, I'm not sure if you simply overpaid him slightly (from the minimum) for the first two years, after which he'll most assuredly opt out, or just what exactly is going on. I don't think he'd have been eligible for the minimum still in 2024 even in your save but that's what your salaries page APPEARS to indicate. He shouldn't have been, in which case you still made a cost saving deal even if/when he opts out.

It looks like India is one of the few baseball players that didn't get screwed around on service time, since the Reds called him up for Opening Day 2021. In theory that means if at any point in 2022 or beyond he were to get optioned for about two weeks, the club would get an extra year of Arb control in 2027.

Dave Stieb II · 05-06-2022, 08:53 AM

Yes, I can understand that his MLB service time might differ between the OP save and my save but even his professional service time and time on the 40-man roster differs a little bit. (And I checked - the OP is ahead of me in the schedule but behind me in these service time totals)
That, I don't understand.

MathBandit · 05-06-2022, 09:45 AM

Yeah, I'm confused as well. I just simmed to June 19th on a fresh save and India (along with everyone else who was on a roster all year) has 73 days of Service Time for the season.

Seems like in OP's world India somehow got DFA'd and cleared Waivers or something, and missed out on 10 days of service time?

05-05-2022, 11:32 AM	#1
SkipBranham Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2022 Location: Ohio Posts: 96	A Question regarding resigning a young player. Still fairly new to the game. Doing a Cincinnati Red's rebuild. Through 85 games it's become clear that Johnathon India is my best player. He's 26 years old and in the last year of his contract. I knew I wanted to lock him up for a few years so I signed him to a 3 year/ 4.4 million extension (1.4m a year average) Through my research it seems that would make him roughly the 24th highest paid 2nd baseman. Does this seem cheap to anyone else? Am I missing something? Did I get a good deal on this? Any feedback would be appreciated. Bryan

05-05-2022, 03:32 PM	#4
SkipBranham Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2022 Location: Ohio Posts: 96	When I get home from work I'll reply with a screenshot of the particulars. But in short, yes I do in fact see him as a HUGE building block of my immediate and long term future. He's been an on base machine for me thus far and he's solid with the stick. He's also a five star guy potential wise. I can't remember off the top of my head what he's currently rated at star wise but I think it's at least 3 ½. And to answer your question I don't see anything in my feeders that can produce like he can even with time. I could be wrong in this as I'm still fairly new to the game. I also weighed in the fact that he's very popular locally and rapidly becoming popular nationally. Like I said I'll get some better numbers when I get home in a few hours, but I think I'm sitting at something like $20,000,000 to $30,000,000 under budget right now. I made a few moves to get rid of some overpaid vets that really helped. Last edited by SkipBranham; 05-05-2022 at 03:36 PM.

05-05-2022, 04:00 PM	#6
Dave Stieb II All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 661	I happen to have started with a Reds save and he certainly looks like a stud. You absolutely did not do him any favors and you most assuredly made a good deal if I have the timing of the deal correct, and I think I do. Assuming this deal was signed after/at the end of the 2022 season, India was under four more years of club control. In my save, he would be paid the league mimimum of $700K for one more season, then be salary arbitration eligible for three more years. But the key is.....his estimated arbitation amounts (in my game) for those three years are $7.7M....$11M.....and $14.3M......and he's only played 4 games of 48 so far due to an injury (expected back soon) so those numbers could certainly increase over the next 1.5 seasons. So you're paying him $1.4M per year for three seasons in which he is projected to make $700K/ $7.7M/$11M.....and he will still have one arbitration year left when this contract is over....prior to which you can choose whether to try and extend him further, trade him or whatever. Kudos, my friend. For the measly 'risk' of $1.4M/year you locked down one of the better young players in the game for a three year period in which he was/is projected to make $19.4M (total) at least in my save. Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to speak to Mr. India and his representatives in MY game. LOL Edit: Sorry, in re-reading your OP to ensure I had the numbers correct and this wasn't a dream for anyone in OOTP Reds management, I see htat you did say you signed this deal after 85 games (of the 2022 season I assume). This makes no difference to what I just said though. Last edited by Dave Stieb II; 05-05-2022 at 04:11 PM.

05-05-2022, 04:31 PM	#7
Dave Stieb II All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 661	Upon further review, and to answer your other question in your OP......yes, this does seem cheap to me. Decidely so. Strangely so. By a good margin. I just ventured into contract negotiations with MY Mr. India, who is on the IL, and he suggested $5.8M for one year.....a year in which he is scheduled to be auto-renewal at the $700K minimum. Needless to say I quickly exited the negotiation room with an imaginary "thank you, don't call us we'll call you, have a nice day". Long story short......How you ever got him to re-up for those three years at that price is beyond comprehension. Last edited by Dave Stieb II; 05-05-2022 at 04:47 PM.

05-05-2022, 04:47 PM	#9
Dave Stieb II All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 661	If you look at the salaries page, you will see where each player stands for the coming years. And, as you head into the off-season, you are notified as to who your free agents are and who is arbitration eligible. The rest of the players on your 40 man roster are auto-renewed at the league minimum. Last edited by Dave Stieb II; 05-05-2022 at 04:50 PM.

05-05-2022, 01:25 PM	#2
Biggio509 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,027	I am really not sure. How do you project him? Will he be a top player in the next few years that is likely to command more? I am not so much Billy Bean best bang for the buck. Strange because I am an economist by trade and education so I understand the idea. I kind of keep that in mind but the more important question to me is what is the tradeoff. How important is he to the rebuild. What are you giving up? Will you have a hole if you pay him that and don't have someone in the minors to bring up to fill an important hole? What is your budget space. Ironically or maybe not ironically being an economist I don't look as much to if I am paying more or less than market. I look at what is the projected benefit vs. the cost. The money cost tells what I will give up. If I have a close to as good prospect coming up I can build around I would trade him and fill other holes with that money. If I don't have the next big thing in the minors and the amount will still allow me to get other pieces I need I will resign him. You have to way the budget space taken up and what you have as well if you if over pay what a market price would be. It is ok to overpay a bit if the benefit means you are building a strong team going forward. I am not saying go and get that 30 million a guy the benefit isn't worth the cost when you are a small market team. I am saying the question isn't just am I paying market price but what is my expected return from doing so. The ability to challenge for the playoffs can help you get more attendance and bigger future money. So while the Yankees might not pay as much for him, they also would get less return than a popular player whose WAR might put you in the playoffs in the next 3 years would for a small market team. In short it is ok to overpay a little for what the big boys might not want if it helps the long term goals and profits. Your impact on profits might be bigger than the Phils or Astros signing him as just a replacement to reload.

05-05-2022, 01:30 PM	#3
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 3,283	I think you did him a huge favor, by paying far more than he would/could have earned in his pre-arbitration years, without extending him beyond that period. He can re-negotiate in three years, or test free agency. If he plays well, he will have all of the leverage. I would have tried for seven years, with escalating amounts for the last four years, to reflect the fact he could pursue arbitration and then free agency. It's a gamble, but locking up a good young player makes sense, as compared to having to overpay him after three years. Plus it secures him for the team, one less spot in the lineup to worry over, and sends a message that you are committed to the future.

05-05-2022, 06:39 PM	#12
SkipBranham Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2022 Location: Ohio Posts: 96	Screenshots So I was a little low on my figures, not much though. Also, he was 25 at the time. And I'm only 65 games in. Still close with my numbers. I forgot I escalated the contract also. Had I not signed him now, he would have went to arbitration in the 2024 season right? End of 23/beginning 24? Edit: I just realized I added an opt out year for the 3rd and final year. Which I'm sure he will. Does that mean if he does opt out then it will go to arbitration? Attached Images Last edited by SkipBranham; 05-05-2022 at 06:49 PM.

05-05-2022, 06:46 PM	#13
SkipBranham Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2022 Location: Ohio Posts: 96	One more I was correct about my budget though. Attached Images

05-05-2022, 07:08 PM	#14
tcblcommish Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Canada Posts: 3,444	Why is your whole team making 700k? I had that issue using a fictional league and had to restart because the finances were so screwed up. Hope that's not the case. Did you trade away everyone that is making more than the league minimum? Sent from my SM-G998W using Tapatalk

05-05-2022, 08:08 PM	#15
MathBandit All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 1,448	Looks like the list is sorted by 2022 Salaries and we're only seeing the bottom half.

05-05-2022, 10:48 PM	#16
Dave Stieb II All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 661	Yes, it's only the bottom half of the salaries page, sorted by the 2022 salary amounts. The total of $102M gives it away. There must be larger salaries (Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas?) at the top and missing from the screenshot.

05-06-2022, 08:53 AM	#19
Dave Stieb II All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 661	Yes, I can understand that his MLB service time might differ between the OP save and my save but even his professional service time and time on the 40-man roster differs a little bit. (And I checked - the OP is ahead of me in the schedule but behind me in these service time totals) That, I don't understand.

05-06-2022, 09:45 AM	#20
MathBandit All Star Starter Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 1,448	Yeah, I'm confused as well. I just simmed to June 19th on a fresh save and India (along with everyone else who was on a roster all year) has 73 days of Service Time for the season. Seems like in OP's world India somehow got DFA'd and cleared Waivers or something, and missed out on 10 days of service time?