Cut him or keep him?

ForeverRoyalKC · 09-08-2021, 07:59 PM

I am having a real inner debate. I am GM of the Royals and have a left fielder that is 27 years old. I have ratings at 1-20 and he is a 20 speed, 19 steal, 19 RF, 17 arm. BUT.....he hovers in the 2 teens to 2 twenties batting average. he somewhat contributes to the offense, sorta. But is a magnificent outfielder.

Release him for a better bat and a good outfielder that's a little less skills than him? Or keep him for that defense alone?

brotherblues · 09-08-2021, 08:21 PM

Slick D and whenever he gets on base he's automatically on 3rd base 2 pitches later... my kinda guy. Just not at LF if he can't hit.

OrangeP47 · 09-08-2021, 08:59 PM

Normally I'd favor offense over defense... but... I'm a big fan of people that can steal and stretch extra bases, so I'd probably keep him with that being the tie-breaker. Granted, this philosophy hasn't gotten me very far, so feel free to disregard.

Bobfather · 09-08-2021, 10:10 PM

Maybe keep him as a fourth outfielder/pinch-runner. But why release him try trading him first, if for no other reason to save salery.

Pelican · 09-08-2021, 10:59 PM

Any chance of sending him to AAA for "seasoning" with the bat, or is he out of options? I gather that at 27 he is unlikely to improve. Even with 26-man rosters, it's a luxury to keep a guy on the bench to pinch-run and play defense only. I wouldn't release him, but I doubt the AI would generate any trades, and eventually you are going to want that extra reliever or a pinch hitter who hits.

BirdWatcher · 09-08-2021, 11:08 PM

So much of the answer for me would have to do with what the rest of the roster is like and what kind of team you have.
Do you have some slugging outfielders who are defensive liabilities? Or are your starting outfielders almost as good as this guy in the field?
Does your team win a lot close games with a good bullpen? Or blowout the opposition more often? Or lose more games than you win and sometimes struggle to get runners around to the plate to score?

If you have a decent team that frequently carries relatively small leads into the late innings and you have some outfielders whose defense could hurt your relievers late in games or even if you have a team that isn't always great at producing runs and you lose a lot of close games, a guy like this sounds valuable to me. I would try to limit his plate appearances, unless he can draw walks with some frequency, but use him regularly in pinch-running and defensive replacement roles in late innings.

But some or most of those conditions would need to be present for me to think it was worth using a roster spot on someone with almost no bat.

The other thing I would personally factor in is his personality and clubhouse impact. But again, this is mostly important in context. If you already have a great clubhouse with wonderful leadership it probably doesn't really matter what this guy is like (unless he's a total jerk, in which case why would you consider keeping him given what you've told us?). But if he's a great clubhouse guy and your team sometimes struggles with morale issues, all the more reason to overlook his offensive shortcomings.

Now, if by some chance he can also play an infield position or two at least adequately, this is totally the kind of guy I tend to keep as the last guy on the roster. (I should also note that I play almost exclusively in an earlier time period when teams didn't carry quite as many relievers. So it might be easier and make more sense for me to keep a guy like this than it is in the statistical and strategic environment you are playing in.)

BirdWatcher · 09-08-2021, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelican

Any chance of sending him to AAA for "seasoning" with the bat, or is he out of options? I gather that at 27 he is unlikely to improve. Even with 26-man rosters, it's a luxury to keep a guy on the bench to pinch-run and play defense only. I wouldn't release him, but I doubt the AI would generate any trades, and eventually you are going to want that extra reliever or a pinch hitter who hits.

I think this brings up some great points, and it also makes me wonder if this isn't a guy I would be willing to try to sneak through waivers if he is out of options so that I could stash him at AAA and have him available if and when an emergency arises or after roster expansion. It's a risk of course and he might be grabbed up, but that is a way I might look at this and an approach I would seriously consider.

Brad K · 09-09-2021, 08:46 AM

What year is it?

billyray1984 · 09-09-2021, 10:17 AM

What is his career obp in the majors and can he play all the outfield positions ? Batting average is meaningless if the guy walks 80-100 per 550 pa and steals 60+ bases without getting caught more than 70% of the time. On the other hand, if he can only play the corners in the outfield and his obp is league average or worse, he has little value except as a pinch runner and defense specialist at non-premium defensive positions. If you have a 25-26 man roster with the now standard 13 man bench, this is a luxury most cannot afford, especially if you play without a dh and need reliable pinch hitters.

Salaries and options are also key. If he still has options and is making the minimum, stashing him in AAA is a good idea. If he is out of option and arb elligible or worse yet, on an expiring contract, trading/cutting him to bring up younger guys is now more viable.

I've had guys like this before and I always end up cutting or trading them away once they get to 26-27 since the low batting average tends to be caused by horrible splits and most of the time they don't walk with enough regularity year to year to be a sure lock as a leadoff hitter. They make great AAAA guys who can cover for injuries or get called up when they run insanely hot, but they make poor starters since they take up a premium slugging position with their middling offensive input.

BBGiovanni · 09-09-2021, 01:15 PM

Echoing the other questions above about missing data, but this guy is much better than my ideal 5th OF. I will keep a fast guy that can play all 3 OF positions (and if this guy can't he should be getting reps at the others) especially in a 26 man roster world. But that role can be filled by cheap OF too, fast guys that can't hit should be bubbling up through your farm system all the time (I always use late draft picks on all-glove C and fast CF for that reason).

Also, I don't normally agree with batting the pitcher 8th, but this is the kind of guy that would make me consider it because when he manages to get on base he's more likely to be able to score when the bats come up. If you play in a training wheels league and the rest of your lineup is good, I'd bat him 9th and assume he's keeping some clod out of the field.

billyray1984 · 09-09-2021, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBGiovanni

Echoing the other questions above about missing data, but this guy is much better than my ideal 5th OF. I will keep a fast guy that can play all 3 OF positions (and if this guy can't he should be getting reps at the others) especially in a 26 man roster world. But that role can be filled by cheap OF too, fast guys that can't hit should be bubbling up through your farm system all the time (I always use late draft picks on all-glove C and fast CF for that reason).

Also, I don't normally agree with batting the pitcher 8th, but this is the kind of guy that would make me consider it because when he manages to get on base he's more likely to be able to score when the bats come up. If you play in a training wheels league and the rest of your lineup is good, I'd bat him 9th and assume he's keeping some clod out of the field.

Yeah, the question basically hinges on if the guy can get on base or if he can play CF to sub for a long term injury. Fast no-bat outfielders are a dime a dozen and be easily acquired, but fast gold glove wizards at CF or fast obp machines are much, much harder to come by and thus more valuable (at least to me, the AI really loves getting rid of 40 contact/70+ eye guys with decent defense and these guys can usually contribute to a roster and clear waivers if need be).

NoOne · 09-09-2021, 02:32 PM

the difference between slow and fast ...or good defense and bad defense isn't as large as the differences between good offense and bad offense. From the perspective yo udon't put a bumbling buffoon out at a position with zero experience.... i.e. common sense applied.

what are you replacing with? what can you typically find year-to-year in your league? What's ceiling? imo, the answers to these questions likely don't result in keeping this type of player unless cheap or no other alternatives at moment.

keep the contract short... maybe overpay for a 1-2 year length? frontload contact if you can.. minimize damage if you get rid of him early.

opportunities will dictate... it's clearly a needed upgrade, so at some point it's going to happen.

i'd love to take a 'stereotypical' leadoff... run a bunch of 1 year sims repeatedly to maintain as much of the other factors as possible... then re-do that with same ratings, except middle to below average speed/stealing... i bet it's only a ~10run difference or less (large enough sample for suitable averages to be used).

or the difference on run differential going from good to middling defense at even the more impactful defensive spots like CF/SS. in most cases it's only a handful difference, so just a slightly better offensive ability will outweight larger differences in speed/defense. it's not about opinion... if the math adds up othwerwise.. so be it and i'd change my perspective.

1 more step in the OF/IF isn't much help over 162 g compared to just a few hr more...

The Game · 09-09-2021, 03:41 PM

The player you described reminds me of this guy. 5 tool player? i guess but if he could ever hit for AVG, he'd be the MVP. he's 2nd all time in SB, around 190 behind the leader.

brotherblues · 09-10-2021, 12:42 AM

Can't understate the value of a true elite base stealer (max rating or damn close) who can get on base even at just a league avg rate. I've had teams lead the league in scoring while ranking bottom half in ops, and without anyone over 3 stars rating.

Dave Stieb II · 09-10-2021, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Game

The player you described reminds me of this guy. 5 tool player? i guess but if he could ever hit for AVG, he'd be the MVP. he's 2nd all time in SB, around 190 behind the leader.

R u kidding me?
Your guy looks like an elite offensive player in any league I've ever watched IRL or played in OOTP. I don't know what the baseline stats are for this league but (aside from a down year in 2034) his OBP combined with the steals and close to 20 HR per season make him a player I'd take on my team any day.....and start every day if his fatigue situation allows.
Maybe not a HOFer but all star material in my leagues.

brotherblues · 09-10-2021, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Game

The player you described reminds me of this guy. 5 tool player? i guess but if he could ever hit for AVG, he'd be the MVP. he's 2nd all time in SB, around 190 behind the leader.

I'd run that guy til he drops from exhaustion... then I'd tell him to get up and keep running.

Here's a snapshot of what you can do with guys like him (well, not quite as good, but 2.5 to 3.5 star versions of him) all through your lineup:

Rankings are in an 18 team sub-league, about 70 games into the season:

Notice the stink emanating from OBP and OPS and HRs. Notice how it doesn't matter.

billyray1984 · 09-13-2021, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brotherblues

I'd run that guy til he drops from exhaustion... then I'd tell him to get up and keep running.

Here's a snapshot of what you can do with guys like him (well, not quite as good, but 2.5 to 3.5 star versions of him) all through your lineup:

Rankings are in an 18 team sub-league, about 70 games into the season:

Notice the stink emanating from OBP and OPS and HRs. Notice how it doesn't matter.

From what year is this and how good is your team's pitching staff/defense ? Also, what are your strategy settings ? Really interesting results.

ForeverRoyalKC · 09-15-2021, 11:49 AM

Have had to spend a little time away from here. Thanks for all of the replies! I will study them and see how I handle this.

brotherblues · 09-15-2021, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by billyray1984

From what year is this and how good is your team's pitching staff/defense ? Also, what are your strategy settings ? Really interesting results.

Settings/strat: All modern settings with modifiers locked at 1 or whatever is default. Strat is just saber with max stealing. I play out every game mostly doing quick-play-until-risp, and try to steal 3rd almost every chance (not so much with 2 outs, but will still do that when feeling yolo). Sip some coolaid while watching all the would-be useless flyouts or potential double plays become sac flies and groundout rbi.

Roster: All guys except catcher are near or over max stealing rating and all are great defenders. Bats just need to be near league average, prioritizing contact and avoid k (can't bring the 3rd base runner home when you k). Pitchers are just ok starters with decent movement, sometimes guys who stunk elsewhere but can do well with your elite defenders. The one thing I'm forced to pay premium is the top of the bullpen. Having a couple of top notch guys there is invaluable, even if they cost you 12.5M each per season. You're not spending anywhere else anyway.

billyray1984 · 09-15-2021, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brotherblues

Settings/strat: All modern settings with modifiers locked at 1 or whatever is default. Strat is just saber with max stealing. I play out every game mostly doing quick-play-until-risp, and try to steal 3rd almost every chance (not so much with 2 outs, but will still do that when feeling yolo). Sip some coolaid while watching all the would-be useless flyouts or potential double plays become sac flies and groundout rbi.

Roster: All guys except catcher are near or over max stealing rating and all are great defenders. Bats just need to be near league average, prioritizing contact and avoid k (can't bring the 3rd base runner home when you k). Pitchers are just ok starters with decent movement, sometimes guys who stunk elsewhere but can do well with your elite defenders. The one thing I'm forced to pay premium is the top of the bullpen. Having a couple of top notch guys there is invaluable, even if they cost you 12.5M each per season. You're not spending anywhere else anyway.

This is really cool and really counter intuitive to how I play : I veto any coach that will not let me set base stealing/base running strat and I usually bump stealing WAY down even though my main save is in the 70's and 80's which was the last golden age of stealing. All other strat I usually don't touch but will try to find a manager that has a strat that works for my roster.

My typical guy is usually either : high contact/high avoid k OR high hr/high eye. I'll put up with a lot of crappy defense from anyone that doesn't play C, SS or CF provided that they get on base. I usually end up at the very top of the league in all offensive catgories (except base stealing and base running obviously) and will platoon a lot. I also end up with good if not great defense most of the years even though I'll play a guy at RF with 40 range/50 arm if he can give me 25+ homers a year with a 330+ woba.

Pitching I try to go for very high stamina starters with good fip to have them pitch complete games if at all possible. Bullpen is guys too old/fragile to start, cheap guys or young guys. Granted this is not viable post 90's imho.

09-08-2021, 07:59 PM	#1
ForeverRoyalKC All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Hop, skip and a jump from Pomme De Terre Lake, MO. Posts: 1,207	Cut him or keep him? I am having a real inner debate. I am GM of the Royals and have a left fielder that is 27 years old. I have ratings at 1-20 and he is a 20 speed, 19 steal, 19 RF, 17 arm. BUT.....he hovers in the 2 teens to 2 twenties batting average. he somewhat contributes to the offense, sorta. But is a magnificent outfielder. Release him for a better bat and a good outfielder that's a little less skills than him? Or keep him for that defense alone?

09-08-2021, 10:10 PM	#4
Bobfather All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2016 Location: Boston Ma. Posts: 1,645	Maybe keep him as a fourth outfielder/pinch-runner. But why release him try trading him first, if for no other reason to save salery. __________________ I play out every game—one pitch mode.

09-08-2021, 11:08 PM	#6
BirdWatcher Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 4,263	So much of the answer for me would have to do with what the rest of the roster is like and what kind of team you have. Do you have some slugging outfielders who are defensive liabilities? Or are your starting outfielders almost as good as this guy in the field? Does your team win a lot close games with a good bullpen? Or blowout the opposition more often? Or lose more games than you win and sometimes struggle to get runners around to the plate to score? If you have a decent team that frequently carries relatively small leads into the late innings and you have some outfielders whose defense could hurt your relievers late in games or even if you have a team that isn't always great at producing runs and you lose a lot of close games, a guy like this sounds valuable to me. I would try to limit his plate appearances, unless he can draw walks with some frequency, but use him regularly in pinch-running and defensive replacement roles in late innings. But some or most of those conditions would need to be present for me to think it was worth using a roster spot on someone with almost no bat. The other thing I would personally factor in is his personality and clubhouse impact. But again, this is mostly important in context. If you already have a great clubhouse with wonderful leadership it probably doesn't really matter what this guy is like (unless he's a total jerk, in which case why would you consider keeping him given what you've told us?). But if he's a great clubhouse guy and your team sometimes struggles with morale issues, all the more reason to overlook his offensive shortcomings. Now, if by some chance he can also play an infield position or two at least adequately, this is totally the kind of guy I tend to keep as the last guy on the roster. (I should also note that I play almost exclusively in an earlier time period when teams didn't carry quite as many relievers. So it might be easier and make more sense for me to keep a guy like this than it is in the statistical and strategic environment you are playing in.) __________________ The Denver Brewers of the W.P. Kinsella League-- The fun starts here(1965-1971: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=289570 And continues here (1972-1976): https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=300500 On we go (1977- 1979): https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=314601 For ongoing and more random updates on the WPK:https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=325147, https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=330717

09-09-2021, 01:15 PM	#10
BBGiovanni All Star Starter Join Date: Aug 2015 Location: Republic of California Posts: 1,910	Echoing the other questions above about missing data, but this guy is much better than my ideal 5th OF. I will keep a fast guy that can play all 3 OF positions (and if this guy can't he should be getting reps at the others) especially in a 26 man roster world. But that role can be filled by cheap OF too, fast guys that can't hit should be bubbling up through your farm system all the time (I always use late draft picks on all-glove C and fast CF for that reason). Also, I don't normally agree with batting the pitcher 8th, but this is the kind of guy that would make me consider it because when he manages to get on base he's more likely to be able to score when the bats come up. If you play in a training wheels league and the rest of your lineup is good, I'd bat him 9th and assume he's keeping some clod out of the field. __________________ Let's Go (San Jose) Giants, Let's Go Mets! Current Project: WBAT/AABBA: Organized Base Ball And the "New Normal" World Baseball Aid Tournament 2023 trophy round underway!

09-09-2021, 03:41 PM	#13
The Game Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Inside The Game Posts: 30,937	The player you described reminds me of this guy. 5 tool player? i guess but if he could ever hit for AVG, he'd be the MVP. he's 2nd all time in SB, around 190 behind the leader. Attached Images __________________ Go today don't wait for tomorrow It isn't promised, all the time you get borrowed Don't live your life for other people Don't bottle your emotions till they crack and fill a couple just sorrows Take your mind and refocus go get a paper write your goals out Throw your middle fingers to all your haters "Stay Strong" Last edited by The Game; 09-09-2021 at 03:43 PM.

09-08-2021, 08:21 PM	#2
brotherblues All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 658	Slick D and whenever he gets on base he's automatically on 3rd base 2 pitches later... my kinda guy. Just not at LF if he can't hit.

09-08-2021, 08:59 PM	#3
OrangeP47 All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 805	Normally I'd favor offense over defense... but... I'm a big fan of people that can steal and stretch extra bases, so I'd probably keep him with that being the tie-breaker. Granted, this philosophy hasn't gotten me very far, so feel free to disregard.

09-08-2021, 10:59 PM	#5
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 2,978	Any chance of sending him to AAA for "seasoning" with the bat, or is he out of options? I gather that at 27 he is unlikely to improve. Even with 26-man rosters, it's a luxury to keep a guy on the bench to pinch-run and play defense only. I wouldn't release him, but I doubt the AI would generate any trades, and eventually you are going to want that extra reliever or a pinch hitter who hits.

09-09-2021, 08:46 AM	#8
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	What year is it?

09-09-2021, 10:17 AM	#9
billyray1984 Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jun 2021 Posts: 216	What is his career obp in the majors and can he play all the outfield positions ? Batting average is meaningless if the guy walks 80-100 per 550 pa and steals 60+ bases without getting caught more than 70% of the time. On the other hand, if he can only play the corners in the outfield and his obp is league average or worse, he has little value except as a pinch runner and defense specialist at non-premium defensive positions. If you have a 25-26 man roster with the now standard 13 man bench, this is a luxury most cannot afford, especially if you play without a dh and need reliable pinch hitters. Salaries and options are also key. If he still has options and is making the minimum, stashing him in AAA is a good idea. If he is out of option and arb elligible or worse yet, on an expiring contract, trading/cutting him to bring up younger guys is now more viable. I've had guys like this before and I always end up cutting or trading them away once they get to 26-27 since the low batting average tends to be caused by horrible splits and most of the time they don't walk with enough regularity year to year to be a sure lock as a leadoff hitter. They make great AAAA guys who can cover for injuries or get called up when they run insanely hot, but they make poor starters since they take up a premium slugging position with their middling offensive input.

09-09-2021, 02:32 PM	#12
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	the difference between slow and fast ...or good defense and bad defense isn't as large as the differences between good offense and bad offense. From the perspective yo udon't put a bumbling buffoon out at a position with zero experience.... i.e. common sense applied. what are you replacing with? what can you typically find year-to-year in your league? What's ceiling? imo, the answers to these questions likely don't result in keeping this type of player unless cheap or no other alternatives at moment. keep the contract short... maybe overpay for a 1-2 year length? frontload contact if you can.. minimize damage if you get rid of him early. opportunities will dictate... it's clearly a needed upgrade, so at some point it's going to happen. i'd love to take a 'stereotypical' leadoff... run a bunch of 1 year sims repeatedly to maintain as much of the other factors as possible... then re-do that with same ratings, except middle to below average speed/stealing... i bet it's only a ~10run difference or less (large enough sample for suitable averages to be used). or the difference on run differential going from good to middling defense at even the more impactful defensive spots like CF/SS. in most cases it's only a handful difference, so just a slightly better offensive ability will outweight larger differences in speed/defense. it's not about opinion... if the math adds up othwerwise.. so be it and i'd change my perspective. 1 more step in the OF/IF isn't much help over 162 g compared to just a few hr more...

09-10-2021, 12:42 AM	#14
brotherblues All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 658	Can't understate the value of a true elite base stealer (max rating or damn close) who can get on base even at just a league avg rate. I've had teams lead the league in scoring while ranking bottom half in ops, and without anyone over 3 stars rating.

09-15-2021, 11:49 AM	#18
ForeverRoyalKC All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Hop, skip and a jump from Pomme De Terre Lake, MO. Posts: 1,207	Have had to spend a little time away from here. Thanks for all of the replies! I will study them and see how I handle this.