Are season predictions honest?

Brad K · 05-10-2021, 08:07 PM

OK, I understand and support the idea the owner's season goals might be totally unattainable BS. But are the OOTP season predictions of where teams will finish based on honestly presented accurate info?

mitchkenn · 05-10-2021, 08:17 PM

i've found more often than not the teams they predict to win a division do so, or are least in the race the entire season. haven't done any testing specifically to verify this, but my general impression is they do a fairly good job....

RchW · 05-10-2021, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

OK, I understand and support the idea the owner's season goals might be totally unattainable BS. But are the OOTP season predictions of where teams will finish based on honestly presented accurate info?

Since you're asking; what makes you believe it's dishonest v just wrong.

Brad K · 05-10-2021, 09:02 PM

I thought it might be intentionally wrong for flavor. After all, default is for scouts to be wrong. So if its relying upon OSA then being wrong is built in.

dave1927p · 05-10-2021, 09:07 PM

if it was right everytime it wouldn't be much fun

The Game · 05-11-2021, 10:57 AM

From my experience, it is more accurate that not accurate. Go look at my EBL vs MLB dynasty. i have every prediction and final standings for 4 different leagues for well over 20 seasons across 8+ versions of OOTP. I will say it is inaccurate to a degree that it does not factor in injured players that will return during the season. I have seen a few times where a 5 star guy is injured to start the year then goes on to win MVP but because he missed the last week of ST and a few days into the regular season, that team or player isn't as strong.

David Watts · 05-11-2021, 11:30 AM

I tend to use "always start the highest rested" for a lot of my leagues. I've noticed this really screws with the pitching side of the preseason predictions as the guys listed all make upwards of 40 starts, sometimes even 50. If I use "strict, sometimes start the highest rested" the pitching side of the predictions will come out fine. Anyone else see this?

Brad K · 05-11-2021, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Game

From my experience, it is more accurate that not accurate. Go look at my EBL vs MLB dynasty. i have every prediction and final standings for 4 different leagues for well over 20 seasons across 8+ versions of OOTP. I will say it is inaccurate to a degree that it does not factor in injured players that will return during the season. I have seen a few times where a 5 star guy is injured to start the year then goes on to win MVP but because he missed the last week of ST and a few days into the regular season, that team or player isn't as strong.

Hmmm... seems to me the predictions should be compared with the Pythagorean record.

Brad K · 05-11-2021, 12:05 PM

What prompted the question is my current game. I thought I had a good team, not the best, but one capable of 90 wins. My owner said try to stay close to 500. Season predictions had me 6th out of 7th. After two months I'm in second playing 600 ball.

I have 50+ years of data on this league. If I post some can someone do the analysis of the variation?

damientheomen3 · 05-11-2021, 02:24 PM

Not sure if it's different than when the season predictions were first implemented, but at least originally the way they worked was that they ran something like 3-5 seasons of fast simming the league and showed the average results. Not something to put a ton of stock into because, far as I know, they don't simulate injuries or account for any players that begin the season injured.

Leo_The_Lip · 05-11-2021, 05:08 PM

Over time, I've noticed that since the predictions are run based on one day, in addition to what David Watts pointed out, if players are out injured on "Prediction Day" they are not factored into the predictions. So good players with short term injuries mess up the predictions,

byzeil · 05-11-2021, 05:16 PM

I believe the preseason predictions are generated with the lineup you have in place when you run them. So injured players not included (as said above) but also if you manage your team during spring training and play people out of position or set your lineups with a bunch of prospects and those are in place when the predictions run then it is based on that lineup.

I see that a lot in online league when we sim up to opening day and the predictions run before teams reduce their rosters for OD. I get around that on OD by, after teams have set their rosters, I delete the preseason report and then regenerate it.

RchW · 05-11-2021, 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

Hmmm... seems to me the predictions should be compared with the Pythagorean record.

Why? The result is the output of a sim. Pyth record could be added to the output or calculated as RS and RA are included. What am I missing?

TomVeal · 05-11-2021, 08:42 PM

Real life predictions aren't exactly famous for accuracy either.

KBLover · 05-12-2021, 03:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

What prompted the question is my current game. I thought I had a good team, not the best, but one capable of 90 wins. My owner said try to stay close to 500. Season predictions had me 6th out of 7th. After two months I'm in second playing 600 ball.

That's baseball being baseball.

If I simmed a season 3 times and averaged them, that doesn't mean the 4th season can't be dramatically different.

Also...it's 2 months. You could always have a rough stretch.

Case in point, last season in my save there were two teams neck and neck for the division. Phoenix and Austin.

Phoenix stayed steady. Austin completely collapsed. Like, literally just imploded and played .350 and .200 ball in the next two months.

Earlier, in year 2, Phoenix was coming of a 95-win season and a division crown. Predictions had them pegged for a repeat...but they underachieved across the board and had some injuries and won just 74 games.

That's baseball and why predicting it is an inexact science. If the predictions were super accurate, I'd wonder what's up in that direction, honestly.

KBLover · 05-12-2021, 03:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leo_The_Lip

Over time, I've noticed that since the predictions are run based on one day, in addition to what David Watts pointed out, if players are out injured on "Prediction Day" they are not factored into the predictions. So good players with short term injuries mess up the predictions,

Yes, this is why I always do predictions the day of Opening Day but before doing any games (so it's still "Spring Training").

Why? Because the ML rosters have to be set. So all the teams have broken camp with potentially their everyday rosters.

Of course, trades, injuries, developments, promotions, demotions, etc. always threaten to "ruin" the predictions during the season, but at the moment, I think it gives the best projections than when Spring squads are up and such.

Eugene Church · 05-12-2021, 04:39 PM

I cover a long-running dynasty league on the Dynasty Forum.
My observations are base on 68 seasons of previewing and recapping my dynasty league and are just casual in nature.

I post a preseason poll based on the game's Predicted Standings on the Dynasty Forum.
Always add in my personal predictions if they vary greatly with the game's Predictions.
I recap the league at midseason and then at the end of the season.

This season 3 of the 8 division winners were picked correctly by the game in the Predicted Standings.

The other 5 teams that won the division were rated this way in the Predicted Standings: 2nd place (4 GB)... 2nd (15 GB)... 3rd (3 GB)... 3rd (11 GB)... 4th (5 GB).

The 5 teams picked to win the division in the game's Predicted Standings did OK, I guess... here's how they came in at the end of the season... 2nd place (6 GB)... 3rd (13 GB)... 4th (6 GB)... 4th (14 GB)... and 5th (13 GB).

So the game does an arguably good job in picking the division winners.

wallewalls · 05-13-2021, 12:02 PM

As accurate as regular preseason predictions are in real life. Obviously, the top teams in the league will be projected to do well, but there's no way to know who may break out/struggle and cause a team to overperform. It's for fun mostly, especially in OOTP because I believe it goes off the OSA ratings, which are not all that accurate.

Plus, it doesn't take into consideration who is in the minor leagues. My Tigers team was projected to finish last in the second season, but I had placeholders at two or three spots while waiting to call up top prospects. If the prospects are projected to do well, that would have an impact in the projected standings.

Kobeck · 05-13-2021, 01:40 PM

in my Online league I traded for a AA prospect and inserted him as starting LF in like Janurary.

when preseason predictions came out AI had him as a top 10 batter with 50 HRs...

he in fact led the league in HRs with like 55...

just 1 example but I thought it was crazy accurate

05-10-2021, 08:07 PM	#1
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	Are season predictions honest? OK, I understand and support the idea the owner's season goals might be totally unattainable BS. But are the OOTP season predictions of where teams will finish based on honestly presented accurate info?

05-10-2021, 08:17 PM	#2
mitchkenn Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Oregon, not by design Posts: 2,872	i've found more often than not the teams they predict to win a division do so, or are least in the race the entire season. haven't done any testing specifically to verify this, but my general impression is they do a fairly good job.... __________________ "This is my opening farewell " - Jackson Browne “They make a desolation and call it peace.” ― Agha Shahid Ali "Maybe she just has to sing, for the sake of the song - And who do I think that I am to decide that she's wrong." - Townes Van Zandt "I saw a young man leaning on his wooden crutch - He called out to me, 'Don't ask for so much' And a young woman leaning in her darkened door She cried out to me, 'Why not ask for more?' " - Leonard Cohen "Hello darkness, my old Friend ...." - Paul Simon Before Mays, before DiMaggio, there was Oscar Charleston. "All the lies about Babe Ruth are true." - Waite Hoyt Avatar is the late great Townes Van Zandt. rip.

05-10-2021, 09:07 PM	#5
dave1927p FHM Moderator Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Brantford, ON Posts: 2,906	if it was right everytime it wouldn't be much fun __________________ IN 1964 THE LEAFS WON THE STANLEY CUP :: IT'S ALSO THE YEAR THE CANADIAN FLAG WAS DESIGNED...coincidence?

05-11-2021, 10:57 AM	#6
The Game Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Inside The Game Posts: 30,937	From my experience, it is more accurate that not accurate. Go look at my EBL vs MLB dynasty. i have every prediction and final standings for 4 different leagues for well over 20 seasons across 8+ versions of OOTP. I will say it is inaccurate to a degree that it does not factor in injured players that will return during the season. I have seen a few times where a 5 star guy is injured to start the year then goes on to win MVP but because he missed the last week of ST and a few days into the regular season, that team or player isn't as strong. __________________ Go today don't wait for tomorrow It isn't promised, all the time you get borrowed Don't live your life for other people Don't bottle your emotions till they crack and fill a couple just sorrows Take your mind and refocus go get a paper write your goals out Throw your middle fingers to all your haters "Stay Strong"

05-11-2021, 05:08 PM	#11
Leo_The_Lip All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,801	Over time, I've noticed that since the predictions are run based on one day, in addition to what David Watts pointed out, if players are out injured on "Prediction Day" they are not factored into the predictions. So good players with short term injuries mess up the predictions, __________________ "My name will live forever" - Anonymous

05-10-2021, 09:02 PM	#4
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	I thought it might be intentionally wrong for flavor. After all, default is for scouts to be wrong. So if its relying upon OSA then being wrong is built in.

05-11-2021, 11:30 AM	#7
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,940 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	I tend to use "always start the highest rested" for a lot of my leagues. I've noticed this really screws with the pitching side of the preseason predictions as the guys listed all make upwards of 40 starts, sometimes even 50. If I use "strict, sometimes start the highest rested" the pitching side of the predictions will come out fine. Anyone else see this?

05-11-2021, 12:05 PM	#9
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	What prompted the question is my current game. I thought I had a good team, not the best, but one capable of 90 wins. My owner said try to stay close to 500. Season predictions had me 6th out of 7th. After two months I'm in second playing 600 ball. I have 50+ years of data on this league. If I post some can someone do the analysis of the variation?

05-11-2021, 08:42 PM	#14
TomVeal All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Spanaway, Washington Posts: 1,242	Real life predictions aren't exactly famous for accuracy either.

05-12-2021, 04:39 PM	#17
Eugene Church Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 36,047	I cover a long-running dynasty league on the Dynasty Forum. My observations are base on 68 seasons of previewing and recapping my dynasty league and are just casual in nature. I post a preseason poll based on the game's Predicted Standings on the Dynasty Forum. Always add in my personal predictions if they vary greatly with the game's Predictions. I recap the league at midseason and then at the end of the season. This season 3 of the 8 division winners were picked correctly by the game in the Predicted Standings. The other 5 teams that won the division were rated this way in the Predicted Standings: 2nd place (4 GB)... 2nd (15 GB)... 3rd (3 GB)... 3rd (11 GB)... 4th (5 GB). The 5 teams picked to win the division in the game's Predicted Standings did OK, I guess... here's how they came in at the end of the season... 2nd place (6 GB)... 3rd (13 GB)... 4th (6 GB)... 4th (14 GB)... and 5th (13 GB). So the game does an arguably good job in picking the division winners. Last edited by Eugene Church; 05-12-2021 at 06:45 PM.

05-13-2021, 12:02 PM	#18
wallewalls All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 774 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	As accurate as regular preseason predictions are in real life. Obviously, the top teams in the league will be projected to do well, but there's no way to know who may break out/struggle and cause a team to overperform. It's for fun mostly, especially in OOTP because I believe it goes off the OSA ratings, which are not all that accurate. Plus, it doesn't take into consideration who is in the minor leagues. My Tigers team was projected to finish last in the second season, but I had placeholders at two or three spots while waiting to call up top prospects. If the prospects are projected to do well, that would have an impact in the projected standings.

05-13-2021, 01:40 PM	#19
Kobeck Major Leagues Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 491	in my Online league I traded for a AA prospect and inserted him as starting LF in like Janurary. when preseason predictions came out AI had him as a top 10 batter with 50 HRs... he in fact led the league in HRs with like 55... just 1 example but I thought it was crazy accurate