Use random players from all eras

[BridgeGoth]

So I have been playing around with the "Use random players from all eras instead of real rosters" button for starting historical leagues, putting them in different years to see how different guys would perform and how it would change the stats and strategies.

Here is something interesting I noticed though: The player poor is almost the same every time. When I get to the later rounds, I see pretty much the exact same 2-2.5 star players and pitchers to choose from. Most of time I see the same names in the 4-5 star range too, Mantle for example, is there almost every time, where as I think I've only seen Cobb once.

So my question is, how are these random players chosen? Are they really random, or is it just a handful of player pools to choose from and I'll keep seeing the same players over and over?

My hope was to see a completely different player pool each time I would start a new game to draft from and really get some different looking teams each time, but thus far that has not been the case.

Any info anyone can give will be appreciated!

[actionjackson]

They're definitely chosen randomly because my inaugural pool is different every time. Molitor appears often in that pool for me, but that doesn't mean it's not random. Think of it this way. You wouldn't think twice if it was Mario Mendoza because you wouldn't be so focused on him. The all-time greats will give you quite a case confirmation bias.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

They're definitely chosen randomly because my inaugural pool is different every time. Molitor appears often in that pool for me, but that doesn't mean it's not random. Think of it this way. You wouldn't think twice if it was Mario Mendoza because you wouldn't be so focused on him. The all-time greats will give you quite a case confirmation bias.

One thing I've noticed is at times if you get a certain player like Mantle in one of your random league inaugural drafts, it's not uncommon to get him in the next couple leagues you create as well. He might be a young whippersnapple in one league, a 30 year old another and an old fella in the next. Then when he finally doesn't show up, it may be a while before you see him again. For years I would never get Greg Maddux, then when I finally did, it seemed like I couldn't get rid of him. Reggie Smith is a guy I get a lot. And yes Paul Molitor. Markus must get royalties for every Molitor appearance. I get a lot of Pete Rose and lots 30 and above Kirby Puckett.

[BridgeGoth]

Actually it was more I noticed a lot of intermediate players that I saw every time.

Mark Loretta, a guy I love as a utility player was showing up all the time. Other guys I think I saw almost every time that are far from all time greats:
Doug Drabek, Mark DeRosa, Pete Alonso, Dellin Betances, Matt Carpenter Cavan Biggio, Nori Aoki, there are more, but these are the ones I remember off the top of my head as "always there".

Funny you should mention Maddux, as I never saw him for the first several, and he's been there the last couple. Pete Rose I've seen several times when he was old. Molitor I've also seen a lot. I'd say the most frequent HOF players I've seen at their peaks are Clemens, Mantle, and Hornsby

Mantle hasn't shown up yet today, I've run a few, though I've been messing with the minimum ABs/IP before they start adjusting hitters to see if that does anything. The answer is from what I can tell, it absolutely does! I've been seeing a lot of new talent out there, many of them I've never heard of, but seeing some fresh blood is fine. Seems like lowering the threshold to 200AB and 25IP let a lot of 19th century players with fewer games played into the pool, which is actually a great thing!

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by BridgeGoth

Actually it was more I noticed a lot of intermediate players that I saw every time.

Mark Loretta, a guy I love as a utility player was showing up all the time. Other guys I think I saw almost every time that are far from all time greats:
Doug Drabek, Mark DeRosa, Pete Alonso, Dellin Betances, Matt Carpenter Cavan Biggio, Nori Aoki, there are more, but these are the ones I remember off the top of my head as "always there".

Funny you should mention Maddux, as I never saw him for the first several, and he's been there the last couple. Pete Rose I've seen several times when he was old. Molitor I've also seen a lot. I'd say the most frequent HOF players I've seen at their peaks are Clemens, Mantle, and Hornsby

Mantle hasn't shown up yet today, I've run a few, though I've been messing with the minimum ABs/IP before they start adjusting hitters to see if that does anything. The answer is from what I can tell, it absolutely does! I've been seeing a lot of new talent out there, many of them I've never heard of, but seeing some fresh blood is fine. Seems like lowering the threshold to 200AB and 25IP let a lot of 19th century players with fewer games played into the pool, which is actually a great thing!

I haven't really dove into random debut yet using 22, but I did notice Cavan Biggio showing up in a ton of the randoms I created with 21. His dad is another guy like Kirby Puckett for me, in that he shows up often, but never at a young age. He's always 30 and above.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by David Watts

I haven't really dove into random debut yet using 22, but I did notice Cavan Biggio showing up in a ton of the randoms I created with 21. His dad is another guy like Kirby Puckett for me, in that he shows up often, but never at a young age. He's always 30 and above.

Beeg Sr often shows up in my Inaugurals at age 38 or so, and retires a year later.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by BridgeGoth

Actually it was more I noticed a lot of intermediate players that I saw every time.

Mark Loretta, a guy I love as a utility player was showing up all the time. Other guys I think I saw almost every time that are far from all time greats:
Doug Drabek, Mark DeRosa, Pete Alonso, Dellin Betances, Matt Carpenter Cavan Biggio, Nori Aoki, there are more, but these are the ones I remember off the top of my head as "always there".

Funny you should mention Maddux, as I never saw him for the first several, and he's been there the last couple. Pete Rose I've seen several times when he was old. Molitor I've also seen a lot. I'd say the most frequent HOF players I've seen at their peaks are Clemens, Mantle, and Hornsby

Mantle hasn't shown up yet today, I've run a few, though I've been messing with the minimum ABs/IP before they start adjusting hitters to see if that does anything. The answer is from what I can tell, it absolutely does! I've been seeing a lot of new talent out there, many of them I've never heard of, but seeing some fresh blood is fine. Seems like lowering the threshold to 200AB and 25IP let a lot of 19th century players with fewer games played into the pool, which is actually a great thing!

I had Hornsby come in via the amateur draft. What a god!

You know who else was godly? This stud.

[prisonerno6]

In every OOTP21 random game I have played, the inaugural draft always had Johnny Bench, Pete Rose and Walter Johnson in the pool.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by prisonerno6

In every OOTP21 random game I have played, the inaugural draft always had Johnny Bench, Pete Rose and Walter Johnson in the pool.

I had none of them, until I had a 25 year old Pete Rose in my latest one. Bench and Johnson have come in via the ammy draft for me, but never in the Inaugural.

[BridgeGoth]

I had a couple late prime Ruths show up yesterday, first time I'd see anything close to his best years, still haven't gotten any that were in his true prime.

Year was 2020 and I put him in the Baker Bowl, that was... fun
Semi-Prime Ruth in 1930 in the Baker Bowl is also exciting.

I would love to see a prime Ty Cobb in the Baker Bowl or Coors in 1894, that would be wild I bet.

[3fbrown]

Keep in mind that career length affects this too I think. For example, Pete Rose played for 24 years. This means that he was in MLB for almost 1/4 of the 20th century. So if you have a random debut league that covers the 20th century, Rose would be in it when you started 24% of the time. At least that is how I assume it would work...otherwise it would be really wonky.

So you would expect to see those long career guys - Molitor, Rose, Ryan, etc. - show up frequently in the initial league. In fact, if you have four guys with 25-year careers (Rose, Yaz, Rickey, Ryan) then odds are that one of them is in your 100-year league. And by chance you will probably have a guy or two that shows up more often than expected - I know I saw old Rose quite a bit. Short career guys, who played only a year or two, they would be less likely. But there are many more of them, so the league still has plenty to go around.

[Supermercado]

In the new version does it still only include MLB players in the random debut? I want to include minor league players as well.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by Supermercado

In the new version does it still only include MLB players in the random debut? I want to include minor league players as well.

I don't play that way, but I would think you could point to the historical_minor_database.odb file, rather than the historical_database.odb file when you go to set up your game. Should work, but I've never tried it.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

I don't play that way, but I would think you could point to the historical_minor_database.odb file, rather than the historical_database.odb file when you go to set up your game. Should work, but I've never tried it.

Not sure about this though, as I haven't examined that database's master in detail. I don't know if it only has the major leaguers' minor league records, or if it has both.

[RobertB]

My one "complaint" about the randomness is that there are many times you end up with an all-time great coming in at the end of their career. I wish there was a way for there to be a historical player pool setup where it randomly selects the player but always brings them in at the age of their historical debut.

[Reed]

How to prevent star players entering at the end of their career when starting Random. It has been a while since I played random but I think I avoided this by starting a regular historical game in 1901 with the players that were available that spring, then set it up as random debut (development on, number of draft rounds, rookies from 1901- , set year for stats you like, etc) Play a couple years for the stats to stabilize then go into league functions and zero out career stats league history etc. and you should be ready to go. It's been a couple years since I tried that but I think it worked out pretty good.
Let us know if you try that or something else and how it worked out.

[italyprof]

Originally Posted by Reed

How to prevent star players entering at the end of their career when starting Random. It has been a while since I played random but I think I avoided this by starting a regular historical game in 1901 with the players that were available that spring, then set it up as random debut (development on, number of draft rounds, rookies from 1901- , set year for stats you like, etc) Play a couple years for the stats to stabilize then go into league functions and zero out career stats league history etc. and you should be ready to go. It's been a couple years since I tried that but I think it worked out pretty good.
Let us know if you try that or something else and how it worked out.

That's a really interesting tip. Thanks. I agree that certain players show up regularly. I think that the algorithm is more interactive in selecting random players, though I could be wrong. What I find is that if you run, say 5 or 6 random inaugural drafts for leagues one new league after the other, that a certain proportion of the same players, not just stars, show up for 3, 4 or 5 drafts, but gradually the pool is changing to different players. In other words, I think it is random but with a certain percentage, maybe 10%, maybe a little more, repeating for several drafts, and so it takes a little while to get to a nearly entirely new draft pool with no repeats. I also notice that, since I always draft for my own team and play a team, that players I have drafted often repeat as well, so it may be interactive with our own selections, providing a certain percentage of the ones we drafted the last time or two. This of course is entirely impressionistic and may be only my own perception.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by italyprof

That's a really interesting tip. Thanks. I agree that certain players show up regularly. I think that the algorithm is more interactive in selecting random players, though I could be wrong. What I find is that if you run, say 5 or 6 random inaugural drafts for leagues one new league after the other, that a certain proportion of the same players, not just stars, show up for 3, 4 or 5 drafts, but gradually the pool is changing to different players. In other words, I think it is random but with a certain percentage, maybe 10%, maybe a little more, repeating for several drafts, and so it takes a little while to get to a nearly entirely new draft pool with no repeats. I also notice that, since I always draft for my own team and play a team, that players I have drafted often repeat as well, so it may be interactive with our own selections, providing a certain percentage of the ones we drafted the last time or two. This of course is entirely impressionistic and may be only my own perception.

I agree with this.

One thing I'm starting to scratch my head over when it comes to random debuts is the game recycling players. I use reserve rosters in most of my leagues instead of minor leagues, so plenty of the players drafted, never actually get big league playing time before they retire. Ran a fast sim random a few weeks back from 1971-2135 or thereabouts. At a certain point in the leagues history, I started noticing a handful of players each draft with colleges listed by their names. These were guys that OOTP was recycling back into the game on a random basis. I think I would rather the game just run out of players than do this. Starting to think I might be better off setting up minor leagues, so more players accumulate history and thus retire for good.

[3fbrown]

I'm not sure I understand why always having some older star players when a random league begins is bad. It's realistic - pick any year in history, and MLB will have some old stars. It would be very strange for there to be some period of time where no stars arrived, and thus some years later a period of time when no stars were old. If you start in 1987, Mike Schmidt and Nolan Ryan will be old. If you start in 1973 Ryan and Schmidt will be young but Frank Robinson and Bob Gibson will be old. That's how it works.

It may feel frustrating or annoying to you that some star or favorite player is 37 when you start up your league and so you miss on their whole career. But it would be really weird for the game to work otherwise. If this really bothers you, just manually make that dude young. That's one nice thing about OOTP, you have the keys to do whatever you want!

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by 3fbrown

I'm not sure I understand why always having some older star players when a random league begins is bad. It's realistic - pick any year in history, and MLB will have some old stars. It would be very strange for there to be some period of time where no stars arrived, and thus some years later a period of time when no stars were old. If you start in 1987, Mike Schmidt and Nolan Ryan will be old. If you start in 1973 Ryan and Schmidt will be young but Frank Robinson and Bob Gibson will be old. That's how it works.

It may feel frustrating or annoying to you that some star or favorite player is 37 when you start up your league and so you miss on their whole career. But it would be really weird for the game to work otherwise. If this really bothers you, just manually make that dude young. That's one nice thing about OOTP, you have the keys to do whatever you want!

I agree. Sometimes getting a Ruth, Aaron or Bonds at the end of their careers can be exciting, as you have no idea which players will replace them at the top of the home run list. I think it's cool to see if guys can squeeze in the 10 years required to make the Hall of Fame. There are so many players it really doesn't bother me when I lose out on a superstar due to age.

Also, in my above post, I was talking about how OOTP recycles players in random debuts. Therefore, I figure if one was to delete a 38 year old Babe Ruth before he gets drafted and plays a game, I have to think he would reappear later.