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#1 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 299
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The Turn DP rating—does it do anything?
A couple of seasons ago a GM in a fictional league I’m in began starting a player at second base with a Turn DP rating of 1 (this is a 1-5 ratings league). I thought he was out of his mind, but this isn’t a guy who doesn’t know what he’s doing; in fact, he’s the most successful GM in the history of our league. His explanation was that he wasn’t sure the Turn DP rating in OOTP has much of an effect on double plays; he was willing to test it, anyway.
Sounds counterintuitive to me; why have a rating if it doesn’t do anything? I didn’t like the implications (what other ratings might not mean anything?), but I’d rather know than not know, so I set up a more extensive test. I’ve tested things this way before; set up a league with all teams exactly identical in every detail, except the one that I’m trying to find something out about. For this test I set up a six-team league, 140-game schedule, injuries off, player development off, morale and chemistry off, all parks identical, all teams exactly identical except the second baseman. The second baseman is the same (DP rating of 4; 140 “under the hood”) on four of the teams, but on one team he has a Turn DP rating of 5 (200 under the hood), and on one team he has a Turn DP rating of 1 (30 under the hood). I ran ten seasons; not ten consecutive seasons where the players are a year older every year, but ten of the same season (I made ten copies of the league file and ran a year with each copy). I’ve attached an Excel file for anyone who wants to look at the data, but here’s the nutshell version: the GM with the crazy idea was right: it makes almost no difference what the second baseman’s Turn DP rating is. In the ten seasons, the second baseman with the 5 rating turned an average of 103 double plays a year. The four second basemen with the 4 rating averaged 101, 97, 97, and 95 double plays a year, respectively, and the second baseman with the 1 rating turned an average of 88 double plays a year. The average for all six over the ten seasons was 97. So, according to my tests, the difference between a player who is good at turning the double play and a player who, according to his ratings, should be absolutely terrible at it is nine double plays a year. So it’s not quite accurate to say that the Turn DP rating is meaningless; it’s just nine plays a year away from being meaningless. Some might argue that turning the double play is the most important skill for a second baseman; some might even say that it is the skill that basically defines the position, as in, if you can’t do it, you can’t play the position. But in OOTP, pretty much everybody can turn the double play. I didn’t run tests to see if a player with no Turn DP rating at all could turn a double play, but I’ve also never seen a player with ratings at the other infield skills who didn’t also have a Turn DP rating, so I didn’t want to waste my time testing something that doesn’t actually occur in OOTP. I don’t think this reflects reality. I don’t think there is that little difference between a player with very poor double play skills and a player with very good double play skills. Bill Mazeroski is in the Hall of Fame, mostly as the result of his excellence in turning the double play. Say what you want about whether he belongs there, but he didn’t get there by doing something that almost anybody can do. Is this something that can be fixed? Can the effect the Turn DP rating has on double plays be increased? I’m not a programmer; I don’t know how difficult this would be to tweak without messing up other things. But if it’s too difficult to fix or too low a priority, maybe OOTP should just get rid of the Turn DP rating altogether. If it doesn’t really do anything, why have it? |
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#2 |
OOTP Developer
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Here and there
Posts: 15,718
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Thanks, we can definitely look to see what we could do. Although there's a lot of pieces that go into it, and obviously not every DP is the same (2B-SS-1B vs SS-2B-1B vs 3B-2B-1B vs. etc...). Some curious numbers, though
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#3 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: BC
Posts: 4,506
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Not saying there's not a problem, but your conclusion assumes an equal number of double play opportunities*.
The "1" rated player was essentially 10% below average. For comparisons sake you could equate that to 9 extra "errors" in 140 games. What if he played with an elite SS and had 30% more dp opportunities? 12 extra "errors" below average in a season would be kind of significant no? *10 single seasons isn't really a very big sample and you don't mention what you set the other ratings to (although maybe it's in the xlx file).
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#4 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 299
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All six second basemen in the study played with the same shortstop, the same pitching staff. Obviously they didn't all have the exact same number of opportunities every season but this was about 1,300 games. I doubt the results would have been significantly different if it had been 5,000 games.
Last edited by Furious; 02-18-2021 at 05:00 PM. |
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#5 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Boston Ma.
Posts: 1,556
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What type of pitchers did you use? FB, NEU, GB, XGB? For this exercise using XGB makes the most sense to me. Also, what was the run differential for the teams?
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#6 | |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 299
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Quote:
In any event, this was six pitching staffs that were exactly the same. Whether they tended towards giving up grounders or fly balls the tendency wasn’t going to impact one team more than any other team. As for the run differentials, they varied from year to year, as you would expect. I only eyeballed it, but the team with the “bad” second baseman didn’t seem to give up significantly more runs than the other teams, on average. I’m not sure what run differential would have to do with this issue. |
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#7 |
Major Leagues
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 337
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Hey, GM in question here. Thanks for the compliments, Furious!
So, we did a lot of the same discussing and dismissing of the results in the league that I'm seeing in this thread because, while it's true that double plays aren't easily measured, it's very clear -- especially now -- that if you're parsing (or trying to parse) Furious's data this way, the Turn DP rating is just not significant. And to be clear, I've never said it means nothing, just that it's not significant, especially when you compare it to other ratings almost anywhere in OOTP. I haven't seen anything to prove that wrong to this point (in fact- just the opposite) I'll just quickly point out, too, that a missed DP isn't the equivalent of an error. An error increases run expectancy and makes the state of the game better for the offense and an out, even if it should have been two, decreases run expectancy and makes the state of the game better for the defense. FWIW, I started this experiment when the player was in AAA, he was a 4-4-4-1 IF defender (again 1-5 league) and I thought, he can manage any IF position (though not ideal at SS), except for that DP rating, but since he's already maxed out at 3B rating and I want to build another prospect's rating there, let's put him at 2B and see what happens. I was surprised to see his DPs did not look bad compared to his peers and his ZR was excellent. So, I knew I'd have a much stronger lineup if I could play him at second in the bigs and did so. Low and behold, he was fine there. Results showed both individually and overall as a team, the defense was good. And I think there are two issues with this. 1) The rating doesn't matter as compared to other ratings. Let's assume a 10% difference, heck, let's assume 20%. If this were POW /BB/Cont and the difference between an elite (5) and (1) were just 20%, that would be meaningless. Generally a 1 in a skill in OOTP means the player has it, but they're no good. A 1 Spd/SB isn't stealing bases, a 1 POW isn't hitting more than a couple of HR (and certainly not 20% lets say 40 HR for the 5 guy and 32 HR for the 1 guy). A 1 DP guys should be a lot worse, turning only the easiest of double plays. He'd have poor footwork, slow hands, etc...and we should see that clearly even if his team has tons more opportunities, etc., like we do with every other stat. 2) It means there's really no difference between a 3B and 2B (or middle IF). While I haven't tested it with shortstops, I assume we'd find something similar there unless OOTP codes off the shortstop more for whatever reason (though 2B is usually a tougher turn). Good range but low DP IF were relegated to 3B (provided they had the arm), but that's just not needed any longer. Anyway, I get that we want to believe the DP rating does something significant and I think it should, but it really doesn't. |
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#8 | |
Major Leagues
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 337
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#9 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 284
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Which 2b won the gold glove?
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“Lady, I’m not an athlete. I’m a professional baseball player.” - John Kruk |
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#10 |
Minors (Rookie Ball)
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 47
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This is also a general thing, but it just seems like DPs are too easy to turn and too plentiful. Even guys with 65+ speed are regularly grounding into double plays. I always lower the GIDP modifier. Find myself constantly hit and running with anyone 50 or below speed to avoid them. But I wonder if the issue here is that everyone is turning DPs like an ace, inflating the numbers overall.
Last edited by Ace1234NY; 02-19-2021 at 10:01 AM. |
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#11 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In A Van Down By The River
Posts: 2,666
Infractions: 0/1 (1)
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When looking at numbers like this can we use the players actual ratings under commissioner rather then going off scouted ratings which could be completely off.
A 1 out of 5 means nothing to me but the actual number does. Also totals are affected by league totals so different totals will result in different stats even with the same ratings. IE give a player 250 rating in power and 2019 totals and he’ll hit a lot more HR’s then if you used the 1994 totals. So just saying the rating is useless leaves out a lot of factors |
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#12 |
Major Leagues
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 468
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Maybe this is a dumb question but, has it been established that what drives defensive performance are the individual ratings instead of the overall defensive rating for the position?
I always had the impression that the overall defensive rating at a position matters the most, and the individual ratings have a smaller impact in shaping the defensive performance. If this is the case, then this 2B probably has a high overall defensive rating at 2B making him really good at the position overall, and his poor Turn DP rating has a modest impact on how his generally great play occurs on the field. Thus, the problem would be that a player with such low Turn DP should not get to a high overall rating at 2B. (I speak from personal experience and without having done any extensive testing, so feel free to ignore me if it has been proven that individual ratings are what really matter for defensive performance) Last edited by kidd_05_u2; 02-19-2021 at 10:40 AM. |
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#13 | |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 299
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Quote:
Also I had scouting off (100% accuracy) so a 1 was a 1. |
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#14 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 299
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#15 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,796
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The all-time MLB records for turning double plays in a season were set by the Philadelphia A's in 1949-1950-1951 with over 200 each year. The SS on all those teams was Eddie Joost.
I suggested PT make a card for him (perhaps others did, too) and they did. However the card was for his best hitting season, 1955, and his defensive skills are unremarkable. That disappointment aside, I've tried on several occasions to get teams to 200 DPs in Pt and regular OOTP with absolutely no success. OTOH, I have several times come across odd, game-generated players with very low defensive skills except for maximum turn-DP. (I use the 20 scale so these guys tended to be 2-3 in range and error and 20 in Turn DP). They also had high contact and avoid K while little to no power and walking ability. In the minors they rarely played and at first base, if at all. When I obtained these characters, I put them at second base and got them to 200 out of 200 experience before bringing them up. In the big leagues, they hit for average, no power and no walks--as expected. In the field, they weren't very good. However, they did turn a bit over 1 DP per game played, and their teams led the league in DPs turned. Now a lot is going on here in the game. These guys let far more balls become hits, which meant the other infielders (later in the inning) got more balls hit to them to try for DPs. These secondbasemen then had greater chances of turning two. And did. So I think what we are seeing in OOTP is that the effect of higher Turn DP ratings on second basemen in big league quality infields is not much--and that is to be expected. However, when the second baseman is terrible in everything else, his elite Turn DP rating comes into play. Bill James wrote about Nap Lajoie turning lots of double plays late in his career--when he should have been getting worse. He investigated and found lots of anecdotal stores that Lajoie used to play very close to second base at this point in his career so he could quickly get to the bag to turn two. Balls in the hole he never even tried to get to. So IMO, OOTP is correctly modeling the crap range, elite Turn DP second basemen by, in essence, allowing them to play close to the bag and easily turn two while allowing the gap between them and the first baseman to be gaping.
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#16 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 299
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Found it!
I knew someone had once posted a chart showing the minimum component ratings necessary to earn a rating at each position. According to that post, a player needs at least a 60 Turn DP rating to get a rating at second base. Of course, that was 14 years ago, and apparently it is no longer accurate. The 30-DP-rated second baseman in my study should not have been able to get a rating at second according to the linked chart, but he did. That might be one way to begin to address this: to go back to these minimums. But if a 2B with a 60 rating is able to average just eight fewer DPs a year than a 2B with a 140 rating, there's still a problem. |
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#17 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: BC
Posts: 4,506
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How did you setup your player ratings (export/import?)? Because if you go into the player editor and take a random middle infielder and edit his DP rating to 1 it will completely tank his position ratings even if he has 200 experience and the other component fielding ratings are good.
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#18 | |
Major Leagues
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 337
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Quote:
Players with higher range tend to have a higher RNG factor at the same position. Players with lower error ratings have fewer errors (assuming they have similar experience). I've found arm more mysterious, of course, but see it affect 3B/SS in the infield in that players with similar range/error perform differently in ZR , and complete a different percentage of plays in the same difficulty if one has a better arm than the other. |
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#19 | |
Major Leagues
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 337
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#20 | |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 299
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