700 standard packs or 230 gold?

[Thundercrack]

The age old question. What do you think, comrades?

[thejojo]

700 standard ought to have some good cards in it, at least more diamond cards. But wait until the new cards are released tonight, you might get one of them and be able to sell it for a lot.

[dkgo]

Standard. Gold are terrible value although they do save time (both opening and selling). You can pretty much open standard packs infinitely if you put in the effort to sell everything. Most of the equity is in very rare pulls.

[dboeyr12007]

With 700K I am going straight to the Auction House lol Unless its a pack only team.

[Thundercrack]

Originally Posted by dboeyr12007

With 700K I am going straight to the Auction House lol Unless its a pack only team.

I thought of this but 700k on the AH will only get me a decent gold team at best. At least with packs I have a chance of something better

[bailey]

Originally Posted by Thundercrack

I thought of this but 700k on the AH will only get me a decent gold team at best. At least with packs I have a chance of something better

My best card after 2800 packs was sold for 210K and 1 other 6 figure card that I kept. Both sell for about 50K today. Save your miracle pack pull for a lottery win and buy points with those proceeds!

[BigRed75]

If the choices are between those two, then 700 packs beats 230. You're talking about 3500 non-guaranteed cards as opposed to 1150. Obviously, if you buy 2350 more lottery tickets, your chances will have improved somewhat.

May the odds forever be in your favor.

[thejojo]

Let us know how it goes.

[Thundercrack]

Originally Posted by thejojo

Let us know how it goes.

Will do. Might open them somewhat slowly though so I can sell the excess

[Bunktown Ballers]

Originally Posted by Thundercrack

The age old question. What do you think, comrades?

Packs still exist?

[Thundercrack]

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

Packs still exist?

It’s the only shred of hope I have left

[RunninYakAngler]

Hope you have better luck than I'm having. Opened over 60 packs today and not a single Diamond. Best I've got is around 5 quick sell Live Golds. I really wish I would find something else to do when I'm bored.

[dboeyr12007]

I am probably imagining things, but it seems live cards are a lot more common than they use to be.

[thejojo]

Originally Posted by dboeyr12007

I am probably imagining things, but it seems live cards are a lot more common than they use to be.

I feel the same.

[daves]

Originally Posted by Thundercrack

The age old question. What do you think, comrades?

Do 1/2 and 1/2!

[dboeyr12007]

Originally Posted by dboeyr12007

I am probably imagining things, but it seems live cards are a lot more common than they use to be.

More convinced than ever. 150 packs. 5 diamonds, 12 gold, 1 perfect and all live. I wonder if its possible that instead of it being odds between a live or historic that hits, its actually each individual card that has odds, so with the huge addition to the live pool from the beginning to the end of the 2020 season there are just more high odd lives. This could be the case and be common knowledge and I just misunderstood.

[dkgo]

No that is not how it works.

Several times people have recorded all of their pack openings (10000+) and found that the 30/70 split and rarity odds end up right at the stated numbers.

150 packs is nothing. I always open 200 at a time and have had runs with just two live diamonds and others with 3 perfects and 5 historical diamonds.

That's how randomness works. If anything it proves that the openings are random and not forced to simply look random to assuage people who are generally bad with understanding probability.

[RunninYakAngler]

Yeah, after the 60 packs I opened, in the next 10 packs I got a 99 Al Simmons, 98 Newhouser and a 94 Historical Greinke with a L7 of 120k. It does get frustrating at times though.

[dboeyr12007]

Originally Posted by dkgo

No that is not how it works.

Several times people have recorded all of their pack openings (10000+) and found that the 30/70 split and rarity odds end up right at the stated numbers.

150 packs is nothing. I always open 200 at a time and have had runs with just two live diamonds and others with 3 perfects and 5 historical diamonds.

That's how randomness works. If anything it proves that the openings are random and not forced to simply look random to assuage people who are generally bad with understanding probability.

I did misrepresent my question because I was frustrated and made it an under-simplification by just talking about my most recent set of packs lol. I have a doctorates in statistics so I definitely understand how probability works. Just seemed that my last couple thousand packs were vastly different than my first couple thousand. I just must have been extremely lucky early on. I was just thinking I might have misunderstood the system. Not that anyone was making up odds.I do not think I had ever seen the 70/30 odds stated or I just did not recall.

[tbonetim]

Originally Posted by thejojo

I feel the same.

I had one historic gold in a 100 packs, anything else was silver or below. The golds and diamonds were all Live cards otherwise. Not sure why they can't tweak the system to boost the historic cards a bit more now that we are in the offseason and most of the money on OOTP 21 has already been made. I have points that I want to spend on a couple quality players and there is hardly anything out there. If nothing really improves on the AH by the end of this year, I'm just going to use the points on 500 standard packs just to give me some reason to log onto my PT.