Rating or stats for prospects?

[brian_msbc]

If you have a prospect that is consistently outhitting or out pitching his individual attribute ratings, does that mean that his ratings will eventually see a boost to reflect his performance?

I guess what I’m asking is what comes first, a ratings boost followed by a performance boost, or do you see a sharp increase in performance followed by a ratings increase?

What if a player with a low Avoid K’s or Eye rating suddenly starts racking up walks or his SO% suddenly improves? Just wondering if everything is a crapshoot or if there are some signs that you may have a diamond in the rough on your hands?

[ExeR]

Originally Posted by brian_msbc

Just wondering if everything is a crapshoot or if there are some signs that you may have a diamond in the rough on your hands?

If you do long stretch with investment into draft, you'll get some idea. There are specifics:
1) EYE and K's are improving slow. POW takes time, but those two usually have low starting point AND improve slow.
2) POW goes first in AI drafts, and in online leagues too. Just too good, and if you strike gold in it, it can cover for lower than exp. contact & eye. Plus POW guys like to be small sample size heroes in playoffs.
Combine these two and you can get an idea of how to get diamond in the rough among top players. On-Base totals (Total Hits from K's, BABIP, Power+Total Walks) is more important than focusing on Extra Base Hits through maxing POW. You won't have cold season of .200 hitting and you can add through other attributes (Speed, Defense) that Power player usually lacks, but covers with extra base hits impact. So even with big scouting mistake, high EYE & K's/Contact guy can be a smarter bet. You won't see EYE in stats, so you'll have to invest in scouting and trust scouting. But something will have to carry him through minors, so don't pick super raw prospect unless you are willing to wait 3+ years and get him roster spots to protect from Rule 5 and closely watch his development. Usually, I take good contact guys on non-demanding defensive positions (not SS, 2B, CF) and try to strike gold with CON+EYE potential, while not being completely Powerless. Only thing that compensates POW=1 is pretty much elite contact+elite speed&steal&baserun&defence. Aka best CF prospect in draft type guy. Elite Defense at demanding positions provide lots of WAR, so you can change equation there, and try below average Contact with elite Defense.
Stats are good for checking scouting mistakes, especially for Highly Favor Tools scouts. If somebody is clearly showing signs of Power (HR & extra hits) and he has like 30of200 and 110of200 potential, there's a chance he's much better. Power is best to be checked, but others attributes are done the same way. Too many walks for weak EYE etc. It's not always useful, but when you're trying to get MLB ready prospect to replace aging star who has 2 years left on contract, that method can be very useful. Sort by top guys, see what they had (if competition lvl is similar or you know averages) and if some guy is hitting same numbers but scouted much weaker, chances are you can have a steal.

For pitchers it's much simpler. SP go first, and that includes mediocre ones too. Best steal you can get is to have money for Extremely Hard to sign guy. Then it's to get best guy left, regardless of SP status (unless your organisational situation calls for it). Guidelines for that are:
1) Ignore 3 pitches rule. They can gain one or you can get more from RP through bullpen management.
Extra pitches have diminishing returns, you want them in general, but not at premium price. So unless there's Yu Darvish type with 6 of 100+ (never happens) no reason to take chances. You can snipe L/R specialists if you know pitch types: Sinker, Slider, Kn.Curve vs lefties; Screwball, Curveball & Changeup/CC/Knuckleball vs righties. Righties are more common among batters, so that can be sign to take chance on "weak" SP. Knucklers are super rare, but if there's vsRight combo you can get guy that is scouted as middle of the pack and hope for the best. If you're lucky and he's better than scouted or develops/randoms well, you will win big.
2) Velocity rule. Fastball is very common and drops in effectiveness till 93 mph. Others are capped at 96 mph. So get those guys, especially younger guys who can improve in velocity. Below other factors are more important, above you can strike gold. If it doesn't work out, you can make them RP even with weak Control. While 93 MPH all attributes ~ 100 will be unhappy AAA starter and whine at contract negotiations.
3) Movement&Control Sum. Stuff & Velocity are pretty straight forward. But you can't ignore MOV+CON sum. They help to avoid busts from #2. Even 99 MPH 200 Fastball guys can get smoked in minors and waste whole of development year. While somebody with good MOV+CON and 93mph FB as 3rd best pitch can win best pitcher in AAA and stay useful in Majors. Once again you can use stats to see outliers, so if you go for weak Stuff guy, try the one that haven't give up HR & Walks and is scouted as ok potential.
4) Pitch types. Not all are made the same. Already mentioned Knuckleball in that regard. Fastball is core, so either don't have it and other "fast" pitches (Cutter,Splitter) on weak throwing guy, or have it as 3rd best pitch on guy with high MOV&CON. RP with weak Control and mediocre Velocity throwing FB all the time is the thing you want to avoid.
Look for:
Knuckleball / CC, CU, Kn.Curve / Slider (vs L specialist) / Sinker, Curveball, Forkball, Screball / Fastball, Cutter, Splitter
They will mix & match differently for Stuff, but that gives you an idea of their own value. Best thing to do is to make bullpen with maximized amount of high lvl pitches. So that batters won't see Fastball from SP, then Fastball from RP. So depending on your bullpen, you can benefit as organization by taking not the best guy, but the guy that provides pitches you lack. This can be a better way of organizing your minors prospects among pitchers btw. Not focusing on STU, MOV, CON, VELO but growing bullpen with variety and acceptable quality. Injuries take pitchers and make them worse ALL THE TIME so your subs will be the key to your success.

Last point is that there are lots of 2-way players generated. Sometimes they don't show skill in stats. Again, only quality of scouting will help to get gems. That's where Tools scout will shine. Increase Contact filters(cut off at 60of200 instead of 90of200) and steal them in later rounds. Sometimes they're weak pitchers but good batters, so you need to draft them and change position later, maybe discourage pitching at all.

[IanIachimoe]

^ good read. thanks!

[SirSaab]

Originally Posted by ExeR

Last point is that there are lots of 2-way players generated. Sometimes they don't show skill in stats. Again, only quality of scouting will help to get gems. That's where Tools scout will shine. Increase Contact filters(cut off at 60of200 instead of 90of200) and steal them in later rounds. Sometimes they're weak pitchers but good batters, so you need to draft them and change position later, maybe discourage pitching at all.

Some of the best hitters in my system were weak pitchers who entered the draft, but whom I steal in late rounds because of their often superior-to-highly-touted prospects’ hitting skills. It seems rare for the AI to recognize how valuable these guys are.

[SirSaab]

Also, to answer the OP, I can say that one of the best hitters on my team, Domingo Leyba, is a consistent .300+ guy with 15-20hr per year and heaps of 2b/3b, who sits at 50/55/45/50/50. Despite consistent performance at the MLB level, his ratings barely ever move one way or the other.