OOTP Modifiers and Home Runs

[RubeBaker]

I recently started a new season for 2020 (162-game schedule) and went to the "League Settings" and selected the totals for 2019 from the drop-down menu. I then selected "Modifiers" and for home runs it is set to 1.222

As of April 24, 2020, there have been a total of 1,164 home runs this season. I have seen many games where at least 5 players hit home runs in a game, sometimes twice. There has been an increase in home runs in recent years, but this seems to be a lot more than normal. Did I mess something up by selecting 'Modifiers"? Please advise.

Thank you!

[mytreds]

You might need to hit auto-calculate when your preseason begins.

[RchW]

What value was the modifier before you set it to 1.222?

[RubeBaker]

Originally Posted by mytreds

You might need to hit auto-calculate when your preseason begins.

I started the season on March 5th and hit auto-calculate shortly after I selecting the yearly totals for 2019.

[RubeBaker]

Originally Posted by RchW

What value was the modifier before you set it to 1.222?

I apologize, but I don't remember what it was before. Is 1.222 a higher number than normal?

[RchW]

Originally Posted by RubeBaker

I apologize, but I don't remember what it was before. Is 1.222 a higher number than normal?

No not alone but it is critical to know what the previous number was because it acts a a multiplier to the previous setting and will increase/decrease the expected result substantially.

Example; your league totals call for 1000 triples and the modifier is 1.000. Your season ends with 850 triples. To get closer to 1000 you take 1000/850 = 1.176 and that becomes the modifier for the new season. Getting 1000 is not guaranteed but some result between 900-1100 is probably ok.

In your case it is possible that the previous modifier was less than 1. Let's say it was 0.500. So 1.222/.5 = 2.444. So your new modifier 1.222 will possibly more than double HR totals. It's not an exact thing. Talent in the league affects the final totals by at least 5% each.way.

IMO a swing of ±10% is really good. I get half my league totals ±5% of expectations in several leagues. See the RHS of the attachment. Ignore the arrows (different thread).

[RubeBaker]

Originally Posted by RchW

No not alone but it is critical to know what the previous number was because it acts a a multiplier to the previous setting and will increase/decrease the expected result substantially.

Example; your league totals call for 1000 triples and the modifier is 1.000. Your season ends with 850 triples. To get closer to 1000 you take 1000/850 = 1.176 and that becomes the modifier for the new season. Getting 1000 is not guaranteed but some result between 900-1100 is probably ok.

In your case it is possible that the previous modifier was less than 1. Let's say it was 0.500. So 1.222/.5 = 2.444. So your new modifier 1.222 will possibly more than double HR totals. It's not an exact thing. Talent in the league affects the final totals by at least 5% each.way.

IMO a swing of ±10% is really good. I get half my league totals ±5% of expectations in several leagues. See the RHS of the attachment. Ignore the arrows (different thread).

Ok, I just created a new game using the 162-game season and the default modifier for home runs was 1.038 After I selected the year 2019 and auto-calc, it went up to 1.257

[RchW]

Originally Posted by RubeBaker

Ok, I just created a new game using the 162-game season and the default modifier for home runs was 1.038 After I selected the year 2019 and auto-calc, it went up to 1.257

When you auto calc the game sims 3 seasons with the existing talent and adjusts LTM accordingly. The adjustment in real terms is 1.257/1.038 = 1.211, or 21% more HR. However in your league injuries, player declines and improvements may vary the final output.

[RubeBaker]

Originally Posted by RchW

When you auto calc the game sims 3 seasons with the existing talent and adjusts LTM accordingly. The adjustment in real terms is 1.257/1.038 = 1.211, or 21% more HR. However in your league injuries, player declines and improvements may vary the final output.

Thank you so much for helping me and so quickly! I think going forward I'm going to just leave the League Totals and Modifiers are default.

[chriskelly]

I'm having a hard time understanding modifiers too. I'm starting in 2007, and I'm adjusting the modifiers to take hits and HRs down a little. but, when I change the league totals and hit auto-calc, it changes ALL the modifiers, thru the entire right hand side of the page, and I don't know if that's correct or not.

Also, I'm trying to boost SB's from the 0.08 to the 0.11 range, while keeping success rate flat, and I just can't find a way in the modifiers that works. on the left, i can change SB's from "normal" to "often", but then I get a huge increase, and it seems disproportionate by player (in other words, I want everyone to run a little more, not just the top 10%). Any suggestions?

[dodger300]

Also, I'm trying to boost SB's from the 0.08 to the 0.11 range, while keeping success rate flat,Go to stats & ai on left side about half way down you will see stolen base attempts, raise pct.

[dodger300]

Originally Posted by chriskelly

Also, I'm trying to boost SB's from the 0.08 to the 0.11 range, while keeping success rate flat, and I just can't find a way in the modifiers that works. on the left, i can change SB's from "normal" to "often", but then I get a huge increase, and it seems disproportionate by player (in other words, I want everyone to run a little more, not just the top 10%). Any suggestions?

Go to stats & ai, on left side about half way down you will find stolen base attempts, raise pct.

[Charlie Hough]

Never modify the actual league totals. Only change the modifiers, and make sure to turn off automatic updates to the league totals and modifiers after each season, otherwise your settings will be overwritten going into the next season.

Here's a crucial passage from the OOTP 21 manual that explains why you should only take this approach:

The league totals do NOT directly equate to how many of these events you will see in your league! They are simply a basis for calculation, which ensures the ratios of these events remain accurate compared to real life. Adjusting league totals is a little counterintuitive. The results in your league are inversely related to the league totals. In other words, if you increase the triples total from 1,000 to 2,000, it would actually result in FEWER triples in your league! We do not recommend adjusting your league totals directly unless you're just messing around, or you are experienced in working with our league totals!

Here's the rest of that same passage, which explains why using the modifiers is the proper way to go:

As a more intuitive alternative, the right column contains modifiers, with a default setting of 1.000. A value of 1.000 is equivalent to modern professional baseball level. These modifiers can be used to adjust the statistical output of your league. For example, if you want 10% more home runs, instead of adjusting the home run totals, just change the home runs modifier to 1.100.

One important point to understand about the league totals and modifiers is that, unlike player creation modifiers, league totals directly affect the statistical output of the game engine. They have no impact at all on player ratings, potential, or player development. Even if you reduce your home run league total modifier to 0.150, your slugger with a 100 Power rating would still have 100 Power, and he would still hit more home runs than other players. But the numbers of home runs across the league overall would be drastically reduced.

[RchW]

Charlie beat me to it. I was just copying those same bits.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by chriskelly

I'm having a hard time understanding modifiers too. I'm starting in 2007, and I'm adjusting the modifiers to take hits and HRs down a little. but, when I change the league totals and hit auto-calc, it changes ALL the modifiers, thru the entire right hand side of the page, and I don't know if that's correct or not.

Also, I'm trying to boost SB's from the 0.08 to the 0.11 range, while keeping success rate flat, and I just can't find a way in the modifiers that works. on the left, i can change SB's from "normal" to "often", but then I get a huge increase, and it seems disproportionate by player (in other words, I want everyone to run a little more, not just the top 10%). Any suggestions?

Auto calc is a global adjustment and it does all modifiers. In your case above (hits and HR) you should have changed the modifiers only and not used auto calc.

As for increasing SB the only way to get exactly what you want is to do what you did above and back off the huge increase by reducing the SB attempts in the LTM (see attached). That might require 2 or more iterations to get it right.