Should I trade Byron Buxton?

rink23 · 07-24-2019, 08:47 PM

It's the 2023 season for my St. Louis River Walkers and I have an albatross in center field in Byron Buxton.
Buxton, a five-star in both current and potential ratings, was signed prior to the 2022 season.
It was bit of a knee-jerk reaction to losing Michael Conforto in free agency.

I wanted to wait for the market to establish itself, and it turned out he was the market bailing on me for a seven-year deal worth $120.4 million.
So I signed Buxton to a seven-year deal worth $136M.
Hoping he'd give me a decent bat, exceptional speed on the bases along with Gold Glove defense in center.
Well, I got the gold glove in 2022. But he's been a disaster at the plate.
We're 40 games into the 2023 season, and over 504 at bats against right-handed hitting his slash line is .206/.279/.381 (with 19 homers and 49 RBIs).
Over that span, he's gotten 207 at bats against left-handed starters with a slash line of .272/.319/.471 (with 8 homers and 25 RBIs).
He's basically useless against right-handed pitchers.

I have a couple of young center fielders, one bats right and one left, who have played well in a very small sample size in the bigs?
They are not an 80-rated defender like Buxton, but both I think are at least 65.

Should I deal him, see if I can split the difference on money and go with the kids?
Or is a season and quarter worth of games too small of a sample size?

Dyzalot · 07-24-2019, 09:25 PM

$20M/yr for a 4+ WAR center fielder seems to be pretty standard to me. His defense is so good that even if he only gives you a .700 OPS you'll get a 3+ WAR out of him. I'd be more worried for the back half of that contract as I expect he won't be that good in center for too much longer and his bat isn't getting better. But for now I'd be pretty happy with that kind of production.

EDIT: Also I'm very curious as to why you signed him but then think that a .790 OPS is somehow "under performing". If he gave you a full season at .790 along with his excellent defense, wouldn't that be a career year? I mean what were you expecting from him offensively anyways? Not like he's ever posted an .800 OPS

battists · 07-24-2019, 09:26 PM

Ouch. That’s a tough one. I might at least shop him around and see what I can get. If someone will give you a king’s ransom in return, maybe you pull the trigger.

But you also have to consider the hits on morale and so on if he’s really popular.

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rink23 · 07-24-2019, 11:39 PM

A pissed-off GM (me) made a knee-jerk decision.
I wanted to re-sign Conforto, talked with him during the season and he wanted something like $45m over six years, and I think I made him an offer right as free agency started.
But a handful of days later he signed with another team without a warning/email that my offer had been topped.
Buxton, according to the ratings, was the second-best free agent outfielder on the market.
I didn't expect him to outplay Conforto offensively, as he would make some of this up with his defense and baserunning.
The defense has been there. The baserunning has not, as it seems most of his hits are for extra bases, and when he is on first and I try to get him to steal 75 percent of the time, he just retreats to the bag. (A whole other issue with OOTP).
However, he has been so bad against right-handed pitching he is almost unplayable.
It's tough to be paying someone $19m per season, when you feel like you cannot play him against 66 percent of starting pitchers.

Dyzalot · 07-25-2019, 01:05 AM

Well maybe it is just me but I don't know many guys that are considered platoons against lefties who could give you a 4+ war over a whole season playing every day. And I really don't get how you can be upset with his performance this year when it looks like he's on pace for a career year.

rink23 · 07-25-2019, 05:53 AM

Doesn't matter now, Buxton broke a finger after being hit by a pitch two games after I made the post and is out for six weeks.
He won't be back until mid-July.

battists · 07-25-2019, 06:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rink23

Doesn't matter now, Buxton broke a finger after being hit by a pitch two games after I made the post and is out for six weeks.
He won't be back until mid-July.

Sometimes the Baseball Gods make the decision for us.

Drstrangelove · 07-25-2019, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rink23

Or is a season and quarter worth of games too small of a sample size?

In his first 597 games, he earned .0275 WAR per game (16.4 WAR in 597 games.) His OPS+ was 91.
In the last 179 games, he earned .0274 WAR per game (4.9 WAR in 179 games.) His OPS+ was 92.

He's performing effectively as he has always performed. I don't know what the expectations were / are, but this seems like exactly who he was (is), so more play time isn't needed, imo.

As for trading him, you have your ratings capped at 80, I assume. In that case, his "80" defense (as well as his 3 other 80's) might not be 80, but much higher. In that case, the gap in his defensive "80 to their 65", but might be far greater. (I have players rated at close to 110 in some positions.) Obviously, every league's finances are to some degree unique, but $4-5 million per WAR doesn't sound off, and a 4 WAR CF is always valuable. It's a trade off.

07-24-2019, 08:47 PM	#1
rink23 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 20,493	Should I trade Byron Buxton? It's the 2023 season for my St. Louis River Walkers and I have an albatross in center field in Byron Buxton. Buxton, a five-star in both current and potential ratings, was signed prior to the 2022 season. It was bit of a knee-jerk reaction to losing Michael Conforto in free agency. I wanted to wait for the market to establish itself, and it turned out he was the market bailing on me for a seven-year deal worth $120.4 million. So I signed Buxton to a seven-year deal worth $136M. Hoping he'd give me a decent bat, exceptional speed on the bases along with Gold Glove defense in center. Well, I got the gold glove in 2022. But he's been a disaster at the plate. We're 40 games into the 2023 season, and over 504 at bats against right-handed hitting his slash line is .206/.279/.381 (with 19 homers and 49 RBIs). Over that span, he's gotten 207 at bats against left-handed starters with a slash line of .272/.319/.471 (with 8 homers and 25 RBIs). He's basically useless against right-handed pitchers. I have a couple of young center fielders, one bats right and one left, who have played well in a very small sample size in the bigs? They are not an 80-rated defender like Buxton, but both I think are at least 65. Should I deal him, see if I can split the difference on money and go with the kids? Or is a season and quarter worth of games too small of a sample size? Attached Images

07-24-2019, 09:25 PM	#2
Dyzalot All Star Starter Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,735	$20M/yr for a 4+ WAR center fielder seems to be pretty standard to me. His defense is so good that even if he only gives you a .700 OPS you'll get a 3+ WAR out of him. I'd be more worried for the back half of that contract as I expect he won't be that good in center for too much longer and his bat isn't getting better. But for now I'd be pretty happy with that kind of production. EDIT: Also I'm very curious as to why you signed him but then think that a .790 OPS is somehow "under performing". If he gave you a full season at .790 along with his excellent defense, wouldn't that be a career year? I mean what were you expecting from him offensively anyways? Not like he's ever posted an .800 OPS Last edited by Dyzalot; 07-24-2019 at 09:29 PM.

07-24-2019, 09:26 PM	#3
battists Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,506	Ouch. That’s a tough one. I might at least shop him around and see what I can get. If someone will give you a king’s ransom in return, maybe you pull the trigger. But you also have to consider the hits on morale and so on if he’s really popular. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ Come check out my dynasty report, Funky Times!

07-24-2019, 11:39 PM	#4
rink23 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 20,493	A pissed-off GM (me) made a knee-jerk decision. I wanted to re-sign Conforto, talked with him during the season and he wanted something like $45m over six years, and I think I made him an offer right as free agency started. But a handful of days later he signed with another team without a warning/email that my offer had been topped. Buxton, according to the ratings, was the second-best free agent outfielder on the market. I didn't expect him to outplay Conforto offensively, as he would make some of this up with his defense and baserunning. The defense has been there. The baserunning has not, as it seems most of his hits are for extra bases, and when he is on first and I try to get him to steal 75 percent of the time, he just retreats to the bag. (A whole other issue with OOTP). However, he has been so bad against right-handed pitching he is almost unplayable. It's tough to be paying someone $19m per season, when you feel like you cannot play him against 66 percent of starting pitchers. Last edited by rink23; 07-24-2019 at 11:49 PM.

07-25-2019, 01:05 AM	#5
Dyzalot All Star Starter Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,735	Well maybe it is just me but I don't know many guys that are considered platoons against lefties who could give you a 4+ war over a whole season playing every day. And I really don't get how you can be upset with his performance this year when it looks like he's on pace for a career year.

07-25-2019, 05:53 AM	#6
rink23 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 20,493	Doesn't matter now, Buxton broke a finger after being hit by a pitch two games after I made the post and is out for six weeks. He won't be back until mid-July.