Roster Moves and Game Planning

[DMan77]

Hey all.

I'm curious how often and when everyone makes roster moves... Do you switch out struggling players? How often do you rework or change around your lineup and bullpen? How often and why do you switch guys from your active roster to your reserve?... Do you do something different in the playoffs? Or even game to game?

I make a few moves a season... Generally if I get to Wednesday or Thursday and a guy has a 70 OPS or if a starter has an ERA+ of 60, I'll demote them or move them down in the lineup, even if that means I'm removing or lowering a player with a much higher overall rating...

Just curious what everyone else does. Do you guys find yourselves being really hands on with things? Or do you mostly set things and let it ride?

[HRBaker]

Something to realize; all variables being equal, a dice roll of 5 is always a dice roll of 5.

What I mean is, swapping out struggling players isn't a strategy in a game when the player that is struggling has the same chance to hit next at bat as he did last at bat.

Pulling a play DURING the game to take advantage of changing variables (pitchers, men on base, etc. - in other words; Managing decisions) is something we don't have available in PT. All we can do is set the lineup and starting pitcher, then wait for the results.

If I have a critical game coming up, I might change something based on who I'm playing - but generally my effort is totally focused on improving the team globally.

[GlassGuyBob]

I am a tinkerer. For the first few seasons, I let guys play it out, but it seems like some guys get tabbed to have good/bad seasons. So now I have a couple of extra players that I'll move around if people are really struggling. I move guys into backup roles or off the roster depending on my depth at that position.

I'll also change lineups and usage around based on performance.

[neugey]

It's hard to set aside the big ticket stats like ERA and batting average, but I'm trying to look more at strikeouts, walks and BABIP for both pitchers and hitters. If the strikeouts and/or walks are much less favorable than you would expect given the ratings it might be a sign the player is in a funk. BABIP can be an indicator of bad luck and things could even out soon.

That being said, if you've got 2 or more role players who are close in ratings and their skill set, it makes sense if your starter is on a cold streak to bring up a reserve and see if you can happen to catch a player on a high-end year.

[dancariaz]

I don't change anything unless I get new players. I'm not a fan of small sample sizes, so I usually wanna see how a player performs over an entire season and then make changes between seasons.

I may change the batting order one or twice a season but that's really it.

[pgjocki]

I usually fire and forget. On one team in PT19 I had been stuck at Gold for about 6 weeks and then didn't log on for two weeks because my wife delivered our baby. When I returned I had 10,000 more PP and was in Perfect League - go figure right.

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[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by HRBaker

Something to realize; all variables being equal, a dice roll of 5 is always a dice roll of 5.

What I mean is, swapping out struggling players isn't a strategy in a game when the player that is struggling has the same chance to hit next at bat as he did last at bat.

Pulling a play DURING the game to take advantage of changing variables (pitchers, men on base, etc. - in other words; Managing decisions) is something we don't have available in PT. All we can do is set the lineup and starting pitcher, then wait for the results.

If I have a critical game coming up, I might change something based on who I'm playing - but generally my effort is totally focused on improving the team globally.

Yeah, but sometimes there are reasons you might not see why a player is struggling. Maybe it happens that the pitcher mix, or the stadium mix, or something about your opponents causes a guy to be better or worse than you expected, so maybe a change is warranted.

I mean, it might be dumb luck, but for example, Gallo was running a negative war for me on the season yesterday when I had logged in, so I ended up swapping him to my reserve roster and shuffling other guys around. I'm not going to bench Trout because he has a bad month or two in-season, no, but once you get a a little bit into the season, it's time to figure out how your platoon bats are faring. I also find I need to check in a little bit just to make sure my guys are playing right - if I note that a top guy is only on pace for 120 games in the season, I gotta rethink how often I sit him out vsR/vsL.

Although mostly, it depends on if I actually have a better roster guy available. So if I built up some points and won an auction, or opened packs, or sold a guy, when you want to throw them in the lineup is a good chance to rethink what other options you have going for you.

[DMan77]

Interesting answers!

I can point to a few times when I've switched guys out half-way through a season and their replacements have done way better... Of course when I carry those replacements into the next season or the playoffs, they fizzle out, I bring the higher rated guy back, and he goes back to being the better player.

So far I've played one season out of 5 with the computer AI generated lineup and rotation, and just let it ride... Of course the teams, leagues, and variables all change so this isn't science, but record and results wise that season was my 3rd best... Meaning my two best seasons so far were the ones where I tinkered and didn't always have what the AI considered to be my best roster... But also my 2 worst ones were ones where I tinkered.

I guess this is part of the fun! For an over-thinker like myself it can be a bit maddening though. Part of me always wants to just play the highest rated lineup I can; but another part of me wants to mess around with the roster, find the hot players, set a strategy, tinker with everything...

[neugey]

Originally Posted by pgjocki

I usually fire and forget. On one team in PT19 I had been stuck at Gold for about 6 weeks and then didn't log on for two weeks because my wife delivered our baby. When I returned I had 10,000 more PP and was in Perfect League - go figure right.

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New baby luck trumps all!

[Magus978]

Plug and pray.

Emphasis on pray.

I know it's not much of an answer, but when the points aren't flowing and you don't have the depth to make proper changes, what else can you do?

[X3NEIZE]

Originally Posted by HRBaker

Something to realize; all variables being equal, a dice roll of 5 is always a dice roll of 5.

.

Not all dice are cut the same way

What I mean by that is that there are attributes, ratings and some hidden factors that can play into a slump... I've seen my team cut slumps and go on great winning runs by moving 1-2 pieces that were under performing....

[Cheesehead1964]

I'm a tinkerer. I have three teams, all currently in Silver Leagues - I think I'm on my fourth or fifth season?

Most of my teams have been making the playoffs - two finished season at the top of their leagues, with one championship (first year in iron). Some get promoted, then are middling next year. I use PP mostly to acquire new players, not crack packs, although I buy a few packs once in a while for fun (haven't landed anything spectacular outside of some a few nice golds and lower diamonds).

I look at the usual stuff, batting average, OPS, ERA, WAR. Been making typically one major roster change a day if I have enough PP, finding someone in the auction house to replace a struggling player. I check the graphic depth chart a lot so see where I can fill holes and add utility players.

In general tend to have focused on starting pitching first. I try to find middle infielders and center fielders with good defense, corner infielders and left and right fielders with some pop. Relievers have been hit and miss but look for high stuff, generally.

Slowly upgrading my lineups so they are mostly gold and adding diamonds, although I know I'm probably missing out on some value bronzes and silvers.

Following this thread to get some new ideas...

[DMan77]

Originally Posted by Cheesehead1964

I'm a tinkerer. I have three teams, all currently in Silver Leagues - I think I'm on my fourth or fifth season?

Most of my teams have been making the playoffs - two finished season at the top of their leagues, with one championship (first year in iron). Some get promoted, then are middling next year. I use PP mostly to acquire new players, not crack packs, although I buy a few packs once in a while for fun (haven't landed anything spectacular outside of some a few nice golds and lower diamonds).

I look at the usual stuff, batting average, OPS, ERA, WAR. Been making typically one major roster change a day if I have enough PP, finding someone in the auction house to replace a struggling player. I check the graphic depth chart a lot so see where I can fill holes and add utility players.

In general tend to have focused on starting pitching first. I try to find middle infielders and center fielders with good defense, corner infielders and left and right fielders with some pop. Relievers have been hit and miss but look for high stuff, generally.

Slowly upgrading my lineups so they are mostly gold and adding diamonds, although I know I'm probably missing out on some value bronzes and silvers.

Following this thread to get some new ideas...

Definitly some of the things I look at too... If I find my defense is rated near the bottom I start looking at tweaking things and bringing in guys who can at least come in as defensive replacements.

Is that smart? Does it help anything? I have no idea! But sometimes it FEELS better to make these moves.

I recently had a card of a player who had good offensive marks, good defense at one position, and lousy defense at another... I also had a better player at that cards main position, as well as a better DH card. So the only place for me to slot that guy was as backup DH and at his terrible secondary position on the field...

He had like a -10 zone rating... But also a 115 OPS...

Ultimately I decided to send him to the reserve. I lost out on some offense, but my substitutes defense was SO much better.

Was that the right move? I have no idea! It was hard to bench a player for one whose overall rating was 10 points lower...

I've got a handful of tinkering stories like that. I feel like I'm flying blind a little with my decisions!

[Charlatan]

I love to tinker so I mess around with my teams more than I probably should.

I realize the numbers on the cards don't change, and it doesn't make sense to put a guy with demonstrably worse numbers in because the one in the lineup isn't hitting, but man, do I ever WANT to do that sometimes!

One thing I will do is adjust where players are in the batting order, so if a player is not having a good year, I'll slide him down and move a different guy who's currently hitting higher in the order. I also sometimes move pitchers around in the rotation but only when I'm using the "strict order but sometimes start highest rested" option, since that will hopefully give the first couple of guys a few extra starts.

[Warhawk]

If it's a close call I'll tinker with the lineup, if it's a clear choice I'll stick with a player through their bad stretches. So, e.g., my top 3 pitchers are set regardless (deGrom, Gibson, Syndergaard) but I've been swapping out my 4 and 5 and long relief guys between the likes of Sale, Kluber, Bauer, and Verlander all season (though Sale seems to have grabbed the 4 slot). As my lineup goes the majority of the guys are set, but I keep mucking about with my third basemen as none of Turner, Machado, Rosen, and Bryant have really lit the world on fire.

In any case, the argument that you shouldn't tinker largely relies on the idea that you can always clearly tell who is "better." But between any two cards you're comparing like a dozen attributes of varying importance, and that's not even getting into team "fit" in terms of both strategy and where positional holes on your roster are. Sometimes you have to try a couple players out and get enough of a sample size to get a good idea of how they stack up against each other.

[bailey]

Warhawk: How do you get that in your signature?

[Warhawk]

Originally Posted by bailey

Warhawk: How do you get that in your signature?



Attachment 624978

The achievement profile thing? It’s somewhere in the settings on the online leaderboard. It’s not a PT thing though, it’s for the single player achievements.


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[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Yeah, but sometimes there are reasons you might not see why a player is struggling. Maybe it happens that the pitcher mix, or the stadium mix, or something about your opponents causes a guy to be better or worse than you expected, so maybe a change is warranted.

I mean, it might be dumb luck, but for example, Gallo was running a negative war for me on the season yesterday when I had logged in, so I ended up swapping him to my reserve roster and shuffling other guys around. I'm not going to bench Trout because he has a bad month or two in-season, no, but once you get a a little bit into the season, it's time to figure out how your platoon bats are faring. I also find I need to check in a little bit just to make sure my guys are playing right - if I note that a top guy is only on pace for 120 games in the season, I gotta rethink how often I sit him out vsR/vsL.

Although mostly, it depends on if I actually have a better roster guy available. So if I built up some points and won an auction, or opened packs, or sold a guy, when you want to throw them in the lineup is a good chance to rethink what other options you have going for you.

It sure seems like players do get tagged for better/worse performance.
I was in a BL where 4 Larry Dierker cards led the league in wins (3 in one conf, 1 in the other). This league had plenty of other higher gold and above)

[uschi_baerchen]

[QUOTE=Matt Arnold;4482813] Maybe it happens that the pitcher mix, or the stadium mix, or something about your opponents causes a guy to be better or worse than you expected, so maybe a change is warranted.


But this game is not paper scissors stone. I mean (roughly speaking, it is slightly but not much more complex) a pitcher with a sum of CON+STU+MOV = 180 is better than a pitcher with a sum of CON+STU+MOV = 175. Now let us assume the first pitcher is 60/60/60 and the second is 70/70/35. The second one is far worse than the first one in avoiding HR´s then. If I would know, that the opposing batters are suzukis throughout, the second pitcher is far better than the first one, but only under this unrealistic circumstances.

I mean, it might be dumb luck, but for example, Gallo was running a negative war for me on the season yesterday when I had logged in, so I ended up swapping him to my reserve roster and shuffling other guys around.


If Gallo was the equivalent of the first pitcher above simply having a bad century and the guy you swapped in was the equivalent of the second pitcher you made a serious error. In real life a Player Can decline e.g. with Age, in ootp the mean of his Performance is governed by STU/MOV/CON or CON/GAP/POW/EYE NOT by his past Performance.


... it's time to figure out how your platoon bats are faring...


This is again the wrong concept: consider your platoon as one Player which take is L-Values from a different Image than his R-Values.


QUOTE]


Apart form this: if you have the means (many very good guys on the rooster) you could go for the following:


1. you are Underdog : go for Homeruns, since you want to increase variance
2. the other is the Undersdog: go for high Movement for your pitchers, since you want to minimize Homeruns = variance


This might give you a Little percentage extra in winning the series since you do not really care for the run - differential:


1-17; 1- 20; 5-4; 3-2; 2-1 series would be most welcome!

[uschi_baerchen]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

It sure seems like players do get tagged for better/worse performance.
I was in a BL where 4 Larry Dierker cards led the league in wins (3 in one conf, 1 in the other). This league had plenty of other higher gold and above)

And i remember my syndergard (ERA 2.86) loosing the wild-Card game against their syndergard (ERA 4.26) by giving up 7 runs to 1 in the first six innings.