Player's getting better or worse at each level?

[<Pion>]

I definitely have seen most players getting a little worse with each level they go up, but I've also seen some players that look they are a lot worse at a given level than would be expected and also a handful that seem to be getting better at higher levels. Could it be that players actually improve or at least hold their value better at higher levels than other players?

It's still early, but one example of an extreme drop-off is Patrick Corbin. His stats are fairly consistent between Bronze and Silver, but early on they are much worse at gold level. I wonder if he (and some others) have reached some kind of peak level of competence or if things will settle down as sample sizes get larger.

EDIT - It was AJ Minter that had a huge drop off, not Corbin

[spleen1015]

I think it is a combination of the randomness of OOTP and with each level you get higher, you're facing better competition.

[NYY #23]

I've had the opposite experience with Corbin, I bumped him from my rotation in the entry pool because he had an ERA over 7, and he's gotten better each year.

Some of it I think is expected, some of it is increased sample size, and I'm sure some players don't belong at the higher levels.

[Maddox]

My Corbin had an ERA just over 2 in the bronze league
He ended Silver league at 4.5
Through the first two days of gold he was at 4.2 or 4.3

There is no way with his ratings I can see him being that bad for basically a year and a half.

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I think it is a combination of the randomness of OOTP and with each level you get higher, you're facing better competition.

With better competition, I expect to see numbers go up and for the most part, they do. But I see some players that have held their own a bit better and in a few cases, seem to be a totally different pitcher at the higher levels.

Could be the sampling of the leagues/teams, but it would be interesting to find the guys that get better or stay the same if it truly turned out to be consistent.

One example of a guy that held his own and/or improved is Aaron Nola. In bronze, he had an ERA of 4.49 which is horrible considering the number of players that could pitch better than him. In silver, it dropped slightly to 4.13 and given that other players got a little worse, he moved up in the rankings. At gold (early on), he is at 4.26 so he didn't get significantly worse while some of his contemporaries did, so again, he moved up in the overall rankings. Still not enough for me to start him as he stinks up the place for me.


Carrasco is another one... 3.86 in bronze was not too bad, but jumped to 4.44 in silver. Early on in gold, he's at 3.86 and looks to be a more attractive possibility given the level of competition.

Possibly just the sampling of stats I have access to, but still something I plan to keep watching for fun.

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by Maddox

My Corbin had an ERA just over 2 in the bronze league
He ended Silver league at 4.5
Through the first two days of gold he was at 4.2 or 4.3

There is no way with his ratings I can see him being that bad for basically a year and a half.

Darin Erstad is the guy that fell off the table for me. An MVP in bronze that hit over .340, he hit .280 in silver and is at .120 in gold.

[Dunzie]

4.20 or 4.30 ERA in gold to me isn't bad!!!

In terms of pitchers I see gold as the level where top guys like Scherzer and Verlander and so on no longer be able to dominate a lineup at least with any regularity. My staff all have gone from high 2's and low 3's to mid 4's at the gold level even with attention paid to lineup decisions and defensive ratings. What I'm trying to figure out is how one team has a Scherzer with a 1.89 ERA and mine is struggling to get under 5.00?

Ichiro seems to still be able to hit high 300's all year long though for a 69 card...

[stealofhome]

I am absolutely convinced that the Stephen Strasburg (both the 89 and 90 OVR versions) cards are rigged to failure. There are 5ish? in my league and all have ERA of 5+.

[Orcin]

One needs to look at the league statistics to get an idea of context. If the overall ERA in your league is 4.30, then 4.00 is pretty darn good.

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by stealofhome

I am absolutely convinced that the Stephen Strasburg (both the 89 and 90 OVR versions) cards are rigged to failure. There are 5ish? in my league and all have ERA of 5+.

Overall in leagues I'm in, he's 4.66 ERA (491 innings) at the Gold level. He was 3.78 in Bronze and 4.01 in silver. With those stats, not worth the PP.

[KleineBiere]

the deGrom's & Snell's in our gold league

[<Pion>]

Originally Posted by Orcin

One needs to look at the league statistics to get an idea of context. If the overall ERA in your league is 4.30, then 4.00 is pretty darn good.

Overall, league ERAs have remained consistent. 4.13 in bronze leagues, 4.14 in silver, and 4.20 in gold. The overall statistics don't change much, only at the individual player level (players ERAs going up, but more elite pitchers keep the overall ERA static). There is also some modifiers keeping everything in balance as well.

[humboldt1498]

Originally Posted by stealofhome

I am absolutely convinced that the Stephen Strasburg (both the 89 and 90 OVR versions) cards are rigged to failure. There are 5ish? in my league and all have ERA of 5+.

Yeah, Stras was terrible for me when I had him. He does not perform like a 90 grade starter.

Sent from my LG-H910 using Tapatalk

[zrog2000]

You have to look at the stats that are scaled to the league, like OPS+, wRC+, WAR, etc. They'll be accurate. ERA and OPS, etc. won't tell you much.

[One Post Wonder]

My theory is that this is because the achievement rewards encourage theme teams.

You've probably got a lot more teams in PT which are not traditional offenses. In order to win pp AND be successful, their lineup from top to bottom might be filled with guys who are trying to hit home runs, or are basestealers or something. Their staffs might be loaded with guys who strike people out as opposed to more balanced pitchers, because strikeouts bring home the bacon.

So if you've got a guy with a certain weakness - let's say avoid k's, and he moves into a higher league where a lot of people are going for strikeouts, then that player is going to have an especially tough time up there. It doesn't mean he's bad, just that he's not a match for that particular season's opponents.

ofc some players are simply no-where near as good as their OVR, too.

[damientheomen3]

Might have to do with the fact that I usually play OOTP on 100% accurate ratings nowadays, but I don't find the levels of variance too different from the norm. My Corbin had been a low-to-mid-3.00 ERA, 5 WAR pitcher in bronze and silver for me, but started with an ERA in the 5.00s in my gold league. Orel Herschiser, who in both bronze and silver for me started awful with ERAs over 5.00 before finishing strong and managing high-3.00 ERAs, had a sub-2.20 ERA through 10 starts in gold for me as of last night. Cutting his walk rate in half from the first two seasons and lowering his WHIP around 40 points will do that. I expect Corbin to figure it out and Orel to regress back to the mean.

I've seen starters with a 10/7/8 (1-10 ratings) start seasons with high-4.00 ERAs and 90 ERA+s in regular gameplay plenty of times. Unfortunately you won't know if a player's in the midst of a true down season or just experiencing a rough start until you're well into the season, but that's just how it is.

[Dunzie]

Originally Posted by stealofhome

I am absolutely convinced that the Stephen Strasburg (both the 89 and 90 OVR versions) cards are rigged to failure. There are 5ish? in my league and all have ERA of 5+.

My 90 Strasburg is having a decent year numbers wise just seems to pitch well enough not to win games. He's 4-5 in Gold .284, WHIP of 1.21, ERA of 3.66, struck out 77 in 78 innings of work. Meh, it isn't a world beater, but considering the competition in this league he's doing pretty ok by my standards.

[Dunzie]

Originally Posted by stealofhome

I am absolutely convinced that the Stephen Strasburg (both the 89 and 90 OVR versions) cards are rigged to failure. There are 5ish? in my league and all have ERA of 5+.

My 90 Strasburg is having a decent year numbers wise just seems to pitch well enough not to win games. He's 4-5 in Gold .284, WHIP of 1.21, ERA of 3.66, struck out 77 in 78 innings of work. Meh, it isn't a world beater, but considering the competition in this league he's doing pretty ok by my standards.


I'd even argue he's outperforming my Scherzer, Verlander and Kluber in the rotation by sheer numbers outside of win-loss.

[Thalion]

I know they're not supposed to but the Walnut Creek Geezers are definitely getting older. They can't get around on the fastball as the seasons go by.

[Will_L]

Willie Wilson has upped his game at each level for my NYC Subway Rats in G276. He hit .274 in Bronze, .336 in Silver and was at .337 earlier today in Gold.