Pitcher Roles and Stamina/What Now?

[t-bone shuffle]

So, with what we've seen this season, particularly in the playoff's, what are we to make of the current Pitcher Stamina/Position model?

I cant find any combination of the above that would allow for what David Price just did in the World Series (3 games, 2 starts - 13.2 IP/190 pitches over the course of 5 days). Or, Nate Eovaldi (throws 6.0IP/97 pitches on one day rest after two relief appearances on consecutive days - 2IP/29 pitches). There are other, lesser examples to be found in the 2018 playoffs as well.

So, this coupled with the emergence of the "Opener" approach, and a mildly general trend toward Travel Ball/High School/College pitcher usage (i.e. Pitchers are pitchers, not necessarily a Starter, Reliever or Closer (though this role seems to be less affected)) seems to play havoc with the current stamina/position (role) model.

If I'm missing something, please enlighten me. I cannot find a combination of Position and Stamina that would allow for what Price and Eovaldi just did (without using editing/Commissioner mode).

Any thoughts on this are appreciated.

[Matt Arnold]

I'm lost. Gonna take me a few months to process this to figure out how we can handle this

[Lukas Berger]

I think we're open to ideas and suggestions if anyone has some good thoughts. Definitely seems clear a change is needed, but it's really not so obvious how that should happen.

[koohead]

The problem is the behavior and usage during the playoffs is not sustainable for 162 games. So anything you try to do in terms of modeling this behavior will do crazy things over the course of a season. If anything, there should be different AI and stamina models for the post season. Call it the All-In or All hands on deck model or something where pitcher health apparently doesn't matter.

[koohead]

Off the top of my head, maybe everyone (regardless of actual position designation) becomes RPs (you know, able to go 30-40 pitches on consecutive days, recover to 90% with 1 day rest type of thing) but with high or very high stamina?

[Bluenoser]

Well, I'm of the opinion it shouldn't be rushed in for next year.

Do we know for a fact this trend is going to stick in MLB? New things are being tried all the time now, in all sports. Every season it seems new technology comes along and new things are being tried.

Waiting for another season allows you to see if it is in fact going to stick or just be another flash in the pan.

It also allows you a lot more sample size to build your model from.

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

I think we're open to ideas and suggestions if anyone has some good thoughts. Definitely seems clear a change is needed, but it's really not so obvious how that should happen.

Never mind how to change things so that it doesn't just totally screw everything up in the regular season too.

We will have openers be an option for next year, which should let you Rays it up if you want. And that should at least let the opener/follower rest logic make sense (ie. the opener will be treated like a reliever, and the follower will be treated essentially like a starter). But this recent playoff trend of throwing a starter for like ~15 pitches on their throw day and not expecting it to affect their next start...

Of course, a lot of this is not necessarily all that far off from our regular logic, especially since it's not like starters were going all that deep. Price still had under 100 pitches this last game when he was pulled, so we can't know how much more he could have gone. Eovaldi was obviously exhausted when he gave up that last HR - I've thrown a bullpen arm maybe not quite that much, but definitely pretty long before they simply fall apart.

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by koohead

The problem is the behavior and usage during the playoffs is not sustainable for 162 games. So anything you try to do in terms of modeling this behavior will do crazy things over the course of a season. If anything, there should be different AI and stamina models for the post season. Call it the All-In or All hands on deck model or something where pitcher health apparently doesn't matter.

Yeah, maybe we have an "adrenaline" factor, where players have a meter that gives them infinite pitches until it runs out.

[t-bone shuffle]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

I think we're open to ideas and suggestions if anyone has some good thoughts. Definitely seems clear a change is needed, but it's really not so obvious how that should happen.

Unquestionably, playoff behavior should represent the extreme, but requires some type of change to the model.

My opinion (one totally ignorant of the programming realities) is that the overall stamina model must change/modify to reflect a pitchers usage over the course of time. The current model allows for a pitcher who's been a 1 inning reliever (with a higher stamina rating) all season to become a 95 pitch starter by simply changing his "position". While physically possible I suppose, this simply does not happen IRL. So, something needs to change here.

As for the Price/WS example, to me it's a simple as him having an appropriate stamina rating. For simplicity sake, he'd be a 7 on a 1-10 scale (as would Eovaldi), while your average 1inning/25 pitch reliever would be stamina rated 1 or 2ish.

The stamina rating needs to become dynamic some way. In the Price/WS example I'd imagine that his stamina (or rather his rest status) should be sitting around 5 (1-10 scale) (or rather 50 - 60% rest status) when he started game 5 after the two previous appearances. Also, IMO, this lowered stamina should also likely have an effect on the P's effectiveness.

And lets face it. Cora did not know what Price might give him last night. He got the most he could hope for, but you know that Cora had to have a plan for the opposite happening. In other words he was gambling on Price. But the current stamina/position combo would make this a gamble you wouldn't ever consider.

Meandering thoughts I know. And possibly an overreaction to games and strategy in the extreme.

Nonetheless, I'm of the opinion that Pitcher stamina must become a dynamic rating reflecting usage over a period(s?) of time, while incorporating a Pitchers physical stamina abilities.

[Matt Arnold]

Some of that is already true. I mean, just because a starter is only at like 80%, you can still start him, and he can give you something. But given our fatigue model Price probably would have only been at like 50%, which means he probably would have been tired after maybe 60 pitches, and would have his arm falling off trying to go 90+.

[ThePretender]

Honestly I don't think you need to change much with the stamina model. Really the most important thing would be opener (so 1-1 2/3 IP, likely under 30 pitches) should be 80-90% stamina the next day (and should pitch at max effort so player profile is RP level stuff as opposed to SP stuff). The "follower" would still have "SP" stuff despite pitching in relief, since he's trying to go multiple innings. He would face the current stamina penalty for a SP despite pitching in relief.

As for real life, Price I'm sure would have had low stamina after starting game 2 (sub 100 pitches), day off, followed by a short emergency 13 pitch outing, off day, and then game 5. It's impressive that he did well, but you could get tired pitchers in OOTP to perform well even when you wouldn't expect it. So I wouldn't change that aspect of stamina.

I wouldn't change stamina around what Price did though.

[NoOne]

i think most of the oddness is playoffs only and could be a reason to change how things work a bit for playoffs only. it's true in real life, should be true in game too, i think. (or remain the same for simplicity, either way is understandable, that is)

the role "opener" could handle all the issues attached. based on current stamina/days model etc... it 'watches' 5 days or so? maybe more/less at different settings? when used as an 'opener' or an sp as a long reliever, it could shift into a different gear based on those qualifications.

when a player is used outside the norms, which can be understood with just a couple qualifications met, it can shift into a different application of stamina/#of pitches over that time and all the wrinkles built into that already. you already have "2" distincy ways for SP/RP right now, correct? have "5" or "10" for the finite combinations of possibilities.

if it can be recognized / singled out in a certain way through behaviour, it's easy to deal with.

[Sowega]

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

Well, I'm of the opinion it shouldn't be rushed in for next year.



Do we know for a fact this trend is going to stick in MLB? New things are being tried all the time now, in all sports. Every season it seems new technology comes along and new things are being tried.



Waiting for another season allows you to see if it is in fact going to stick or just be another flash in the pan.



It also allows you a lot more sample size to build your model from.

Agree with this. A few years back, the hot postseason strategy was bringing in your best reliever, ie what used to be closer, in the middle innings for multiple innings. Aka Cleveland Andrew Miller. Yet just a few years later, in this postseason that strategy didn’t really come into play as much. You had Josh Hader do his thing, but Kenley Jansen used as a 2 inning (in theory) closer while Craig Kimbrel was more the traditional modern era closer usage. 9th Inning only.

I think the current OOTP format is still pretty accurate, and also allows tweaking if you want EXACTLY what the most recent season/playoffs had occur. To me the David Price thing was not a trend per se, but more required bc of an extraordinarily long game 3 where the staffs were shot and had limited options (remember Sale was apparently hurt too or would have started Game 5).

The reduced IP of SP in regular season is the bigger trend affecting the game and sim gameplay. Ie 3rd time thru order penalty.


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[Wingedlion14]

Maybe not something that can be done for OOTP 20 but maybe down the road a system where each starting pitching comes with a “routine” that they do in between starts (say for instance they throw bullpens on days 2 and 3 when they have 4 days rest and 2 and 4 when they 5 days rest) and in the playoffs have an option where your starters can be available out of the pen in days they’d normally throw.

This might require changing from the current rotation setup on the pitching screen (although that might need to happen anyway due to openers).

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by Wingedlion14

Maybe not something that can be done for OOTP 20 but maybe down the road a system where each starting pitching comes with a “routine” that they do in between starts (say for instance they throw bullpens on days 2 and 3 when they have 4 days rest and 2 and 4 when they 5 days rest) and in the playoffs have an option where your starters can be available out of the pen in days they’d normally throw.

This might require changing from the current rotation setup on the pitching screen (although that might need to happen anyway due to openers).

yeah i like that... based on how you prepare them, not unlike warming up, is how they make use of their stamina... that also prevents abuse of the different types of stamina use. you can't switch them in "1" day... it has to be a choice made ahead of time as it is in real life... also, the boost to Stuff could be based onthe preperation... a long reliever going ~60 pitches shouldnt get the same boost as a guy expected to throw ~20 bullets for an IP and exit.

excludes playoffs where players will do things that are known to be dangerous to their long-term health... like throwing 90 pitches on a couple days rest after pitching ~40pitches over 2 previous days or whatever the example was in the OP. i think the current ramifications for trying such a thing are realistic... pure luck to pitch well or worse hurt yourself.

there are few exceptiosn in history to this.. the numbers show that pitching on short rest is devestating to performance... could their be individuals that can transcend that issue, sure, but not likely the reason when you see it due to low-% vs. simply just getting lucky.

[jaa36]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

I think we're open to ideas and suggestions if anyone has some good thoughts. Definitely seems clear a change is needed, but it's really not so obvious how that should happen.

I think that it could be worthwhile to break down what is currently "stamina" a little bit more. As it stands, it's sort of an all-in-one rating that serves as something of a cut point for who can be a starter and who can be a reliever, and gives you an approximate sense of how many pitches you can get out of someone in either role. But there are several things (in real life) that are sort of in the "realm" of stamina:
-how many pitches a pitcher can throw in a single outing before tiring
-how many pitches a pitcher can throw in a single inning before tiring
-how often a pitcher can pitch
-whether or not a pitcher can "stretch out" from a short outing to a long outing

Now, I'm not sure whether it makes sense to break all of these out from a simple "stamina" rating. But possibly there could be value in having a "stamina" and an "adaptability" rating. Someone who has high stamina but low adaptability might be able to pitch every fifth game, but not give you in an inning in relief in between starts, or if he did, it might knock him back a few days from making his next start. (This is essentially how the stamina rating works now.). Someone who has low stamina but high adaptability could come in and give you an inning every day or two as a reliever, or as an "opener", or as a spot starter, you name it, I'll do it coach kind of thing, but wouldn't be expected to go more than a turn through the lineup. Someone who has low stamina and low adaptability would be your standard late-inning reliever who can give you just an inning at a time. And someone with high stamina and high adaptability is Nate Eovaldi.

Another approach (and one that could be used in conjunction with the above) could be to assign a "focus" to a pitcher ahead of time. In other words, the team would determine whether a pitcher is going to be prepared to go hard for an inning (thus getting the "stuff" bonus) or try to get through the order 2-3 times. Conventionally (until this year) this has been the difference between a reliever and a starter. But the same concept applies to an opener- that guy is expecting to just get three or four outs and should be treated as a reliever. So when OOTP calculates how it affects his fatigue, it would be different depending on what his "focus" was going into the game. This would enable the "opener" to come right back and open or relieve in the next game, which currently OOTP doesn't really allow for. You could potentially have a few levels of granularity to this- a "short outing" focus, a "medium" focus (prepared to go 2-3 innings), or a "long outing" focus (traditional starter). An adaptable pitcher would be able to go between roles quickly (maybe even immediately) while a non-adaptable pitcher would not.

If you went with this kind of approach, you could also then abstract the "percent rested" concept more than what it is now. While considering someone "90% rested" is a useful concept for a video game, I'm not sure if it's necessarily an accurate way to think about it in real life. (This issue applies to the position players as well.) It might be better to have it more like the personality rating where you get a statement about their status. "I'm ready to go nine today." "My arm's a bit sore, but I could give you six innings." "I'll be ready to go for my next start." "I can give you all I've got for an inning or two." Or the Rich Hill: "You might want to keep an eye on me next inning."

I also think it would be good to be able to develop stamina over time. One thing that has bugged me about OOTP over the years is that stamina is relatively static- that you can't stretch a pitcher out over time. I think that stamina could be something where you have a "current" and a "potential" rating- where the current stamina rating could move a lot more rapidly than other ratings, based on the pitcher's usage pattern. So if I use a guy with 30 current stamina and 60 potential stamina as a short reliever, he would stay at 30, but if I used him as a long reliever he would inch up to 40 or 50 over the course of a month. Or maybe not even based on his usage pattern, maybe instead I just set his focus to "long reliever" and the stamina change happens automatically over the next month.

Hope that all makes sense. I don't envy your challenge in getting this sorted out.