Pitching WAR Confusion.

[scottk1983]

Admittedly, I don't know a lot about the WAR statistic. I basically know what the acronym stands for and that a higher number is better. However, when comparing these 2 pitchers for the Pitcher of the Year award, I was stunned to see that Player A had a WAR of 10.3 and Player B had a WAR of 3.0. Surely that can't be right though? Can anyone confirm that this is way off-base, or if it's not off-base, can anyone explain how pitcher A's WAR is so much higher than Pitcher B's?

[pgjocki]

Does Player A also bat by chance ans play in a different league?

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[scottk1983]

Originally Posted by pgjocki

Does Player A also bat by chance ans play in a different league?

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As a hitter, Player A hit .069/.096/.092 with 9 hits, 58 strikeouts and a batter WAR of -1.2 in 147 plate appearances. This was the only league he played in.

Funnily enough, as a hitter Player B hit .202/.216/.211 with 22 hits, 6 rbi, only 15 strikeouts and had a batter WAR of -0.3 in 138 plate appearances.

[pgjocki]

Originally Posted by scottk1983

As a hitter, Player A hit .069/.096/.092 with 9 hits, 58 strikeouts and a batter WAR of -1.2 in 147 plate appearances. This was the only league he played in.

Ok, just making sure that didn't skew the numbers. I'm just as confused as you are then.

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[MisterTidster]

The stat nerds on Wikipedia have done an impressive job explaining WAR. I simultaneously have a greater knowledge of WAR and am far more confused. The gist I get from skimming is that player A is getting more contributions to his wins against replacement due to his additional innings pitched.

[scottk1983]

It must be the IP. All but 3 of the 16 pitchers in my league with more innings pitched than Player B have a higher WAR, and all 3 of the guys with lower WAR had significantly more walks than strikeouts.

Innings pitched shouldn't be that big of a factor though should it? Certainly this has to be a glitch or something doesn't it?

[Snider&Hodges]

Same league and same level of competition, right?
If so, I'm as confused as you are. I know the higher IP helps Pitcher A's WAR, but B's WAR should be a lot higher than 3. I don't mean to state the obvious, but are you sure you read it right?

[scottk1983]

Originally Posted by Snider&Hodges

Same league and same level of competition, right?
If so, I'm as confused as you are. I know the higher IP helps Pitcher A's WAR, but B's WAR should be a lot higher than 3. I don't mean to state the obvious, but are you sure you read it right?

Yes to same league and level of competition and yes I'm 100% positive that I read them right.

I have another example too. Player B is the same in this one as in the original post. As I'm sure you'll notice, Player A, in just 36 more innings pitched than Player B, has 1 less Win, 6 more losses, 85 more hits allowed, 65 more runs allowed, 72 more earned runs allowed, 85 more walks, 2 less strikeouts, an ERA pushing 2 runs higher, an opponents batting average that's 45 points higher, a BABIP that's 36 points higher, a significantly higher WHIP, a significantly lower ERA+, more BB per 9 and less strikeouts per 9.

Player A's WAR is 3.1
Player B's WAR is 3.0

[jaa36]

OOTP WAR (like Fangraphs WAR, or fWAR) is based on Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP. You can find FIP under "Expanded Pitching Stats 2" in an individual player profile. FIP is based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs, and is adjusted based on a player's ballpark. It doesn't include hits allowed or total runs allowed. The philosophy behind it (which is somewhat debatable) is that pitchers have relatively more control over strikeouts, walks and home runs, and relatively less control over hits allowed, which are driven more by random variation.

I think for your first comparison, Pitcher A ends up with a relatively much higher WAR because he gave up fewer home runs and walks. It's possible, also, that he pitched in a more difficult ballpark.

[NoOne]

the extra innnings would accumulate more 'stats', which would add to war since it is not a rate/average/etc. (which is why it's bad to use comparing two players) -- jaa beat me there on the hra and such.

that probably doesn't account for all of it thought. 7war difference is a big gap. 300ip vs 350ip might account for ~1.5-2 war of the difference? (~85% of the other) so, another ~5 to go. ie differences in how they got 'there'.account for the rest

this is a great example where era+ paints a much clearer picture. (in other contexts war may be 'better').. in either case, era+ isn't about # of gs or ip, it's about rates which compare apples to apples between players.

if they aren't strikeout guys/power pitchers in general, they are underrated by this particular pitching war equation

side note: if player b from first set consitently maintains a lower babip against, he's truely better. he may have just gotten lucky during that season too. awards reward results and it's really hard to say what looks to be the slightly lesser SP being 7war higher than player B. i think the era+ is more accurate in this particular context.

war has its heart in the right place but fails on execution

[scottk1983]

Thanks for the replies guys! I actually don't use WAR to compare players in general, especially pitchers. I just happened to notice it in this case when looking at the league leaders for pitching and noticing that the guy the computer recommended for the Pitcher of the Year award had a much lower WAR than all of the top 5 Starting Pitchers in his league in that category.

I just posted here to make sure something wasn't messed up before I continue on with this save. I'd hate to let a potential issue slip by in my 4th season, only to get blindsided by it in my 100th season.

Thanks again!

[NoOne]

hey, it very well could be... i didn't look deep enough to know, lol. unless someone pluggged the stuff into the equation to double check, neither did they.

most likely, it would show up rampantly if there was such a problem. it's just a plug-n-play equation for each pitcher and it wouldn't be a 1-time problem except in extremely rare circumstances.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by scottk1983

Admittedly, I don't know a lot about the WAR statistic. I basically know what the acronym stands for and that a higher number is better. However, when comparing these 2 pitchers for the Pitcher of the Year award, I was stunned to see that Player A had a WAR of 10.3 and Player B had a WAR of 3.0. Surely that can't be right though? Can anyone confirm that this is way off-base, or if it's not off-base, can anyone explain how pitcher A's WAR is so much higher than Pitcher B's?

I don't see WAR in the screen shot. Show each pitchers horizontal stat line with WAR.

Pitcher WAR is... not as eyeball tested as Mike Trout.

[scottk1983]

Originally Posted by RchW

I don't see WAR in the screen shot. Show each pitchers horizontal stat line with WAR.

Pitcher WAR is... not as eyeball tested as Mike Trout.

Here you go. The year in question is 1898.

Player A from the original post.

[scottk1983]

Originally Posted by RchW

I don't see WAR in the screen shot. Show each pitchers horizontal stat line with WAR.

Pitcher WAR is... not as eyeball tested as Mike Trout.

Player B from the original post. Once again, the year in question is 1898.

[rudel.dietrich]

It may have something to do with the 1898 era and 'hit luck'
That era had few strikeouts, few walks and few HRs. Thus due to era the things a pitcher could control were naturally low anyways.
It was mostly about tossing innings and making sure your arm did not fall off.

Here is 1898 for the NL from baseball reference
https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...pitching.shtml

Look at Clark Griffith and Kid Nichols.

Griffith led the NL in ERA+ by a significant margin.

However he is edged by Nichols in WAR due to Nichols pitching more innings.

Not as extreme as your example but the 1898 era warped things quite a bit.

It could be how OOTPs WAR formula is calculated that it gives heavy emphasis on IP and PAs and combined with very few things being under a pitchers control during the era the warping effect can get pretty extreme.

[chriskelly]

This post is related to the one I just posted, but has left me more confused!! I'm looking for the best stat to evaluate RPs on. I thought it might be FIP or ERA+, but after reading the above, I'm not so sure!

[pgjocki]

Originally Posted by chriskelly

This post is related to the one I just posted, but has left me more confused!! I'm looking for the best stat to evaluate RPs on. I thought it might be FIP or ERA+, but after reading the above, I'm not so sure!

K/9 and WHIP for RP

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[Timofmars]

What are the ballpark factors for the home ballparks these pitchers pitched at?

[scottk1983]

Originally Posted by Timofmars

What are the ballpark factors for the home ballparks these pitchers pitched at?

Here are the ballpark factors. Player A is on the top and Player B is on the bottom.