How do you decide how much to offer extensions for?

jarmenia · 08-25-2017, 04:49 PM

In the real world, the clubs and players have various projection systems they use to try and project their future value. I'm guessing most OOTP players don't have custom made projection systems. So what do you use?

drhay53 · 08-25-2017, 05:16 PM

I don't have a projection system, but I do have a custom rating system. I dump lots of league data to html files which I parse with python.

Players are rated by the number of sigma they are away from the true league average at their position; then I simply look at the contracts of similarly rated players. You could mimic this with filters and a custom view that shows contract information.

I play with realistic injuries, so their injury history somewhat controls the number of years I'm willing to go, as well as money. For 'normal' players it's something like 3+1 (option), for fragile it's 2 at most, preferably 1+1 (opt). For Iron Man it depends on age but an iron man at 27 I'll give 7 years if he's a cornerstone of the team. Durable is generally 4+1 or 5+1 if I'm somewhat desperate. I'll overpay for durable+ and lowball for fragile.

Dyzalot · 08-25-2017, 08:15 PM

Well for arbitration guys, I usually offer slightly less than their projected arbitration value. For someone projected to get 1M I'll offer like 950K and they will usually sign. For a star player that might be projected to make like 8M, I'd offer something like 7.5M. I can almost always sign them for at least a little less than the projections.

mitchkenn · 08-25-2017, 08:20 PM

depends on the player and my team needs. if he's a star and i don't have anyone worth a dime in my minors, i'll sign him close to what he's asking, but i never offer more than 5 years unless the player is a cornerstone of my organization, someone like Babe Ruth, or Jimmie Foxx, or Ted Williams - unless he's injury prone. then i only offer 1 year no matter.
If i have someone in my system that looks promising and may be ready in a year, i just offer him 1 year and about 3/4 of what he's asking.

NoOne · 08-25-2017, 11:45 PM

i have a basic idea of what they will cost in FA. if it's a deal or "aceptable" i will do it.

i never paint myself into a corner with contract length or money. when i don't get my way, i take my lumps and better off in long-run by avoiding it.

of course, that's assuming they fit my future plans and such. to make a good financial decision, you just have to have a good perception of what things cost as well as how that term fits into the greater puzzle that is your team (payroll for any year during contract).

while it occurs less often, i've gotten better deals from smartly allowing a player to hit free agency, instead of extending. it's also a bit of a risk. if too many teams with money target him, it can get more expensive.

1 year deals to arb-eligible players i never take. i just take the arbitration contract, which is typically cheaper. it may or may not upset them, but i don't see any repercussions.

Lamorak · 08-30-2017, 08:36 PM

When I've got nothing to go on, I either use the 'Compare player' function (The chart at the bottom lists -somewhat- comparable players.) I find guys who are are similar in profile (particularly age and relative experience). It will give me a ballpark market value. A little longer version of the same method- I use the "Find a Player" function for a similar effect. I plug in the profile of the player I'm considering extending and scope what other similar players are worth. One thing to note for impact is huge early arbitration seasons. I had a pretty good third year player who had a monster season. He asked for (and received) a big time arbitration salary. Next year, he regressed. Significantly. But the baseline salary had been set and arbitration pretty much escalated to the point of his quickly being unreasonable for the quality he was providing. I released him and resigned him for significantly less as a free agent.

08-25-2017, 04:49 PM	#1
jarmenia Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Tampa, FL USA Posts: 4,503	How do you decide how much to offer extensions for? In the real world, the clubs and players have various projection systems they use to try and project their future value. I'm guessing most OOTP players don't have custom made projection systems. So what do you use? __________________ When is good enough, good enough?

08-25-2017, 08:20 PM	#4
mitchkenn Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Oregon, not by design Posts: 2,872	depends on the player and my team needs. if he's a star and i don't have anyone worth a dime in my minors, i'll sign him close to what he's asking, but i never offer more than 5 years unless the player is a cornerstone of my organization, someone like Babe Ruth, or Jimmie Foxx, or Ted Williams - unless he's injury prone. then i only offer 1 year no matter. If i have someone in my system that looks promising and may be ready in a year, i just offer him 1 year and about 3/4 of what he's asking. __________________ "This is my opening farewell " - Jackson Browne “They make a desolation and call it peace.” ― Agha Shahid Ali "Maybe she just has to sing, for the sake of the song - And who do I think that I am to decide that she's wrong." - Townes Van Zandt "I saw a young man leaning on his wooden crutch - He called out to me, 'Don't ask for so much' And a young woman leaning in her darkened door She cried out to me, 'Why not ask for more?' " - Leonard Cohen "Hello darkness, my old Friend ...." - Paul Simon Before Mays, before DiMaggio, there was Oscar Charleston. "All the lies about Babe Ruth are true." - Waite Hoyt Avatar is the late great Townes Van Zandt. rip.

08-25-2017, 11:45 PM	#5
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	i have a basic idea of what they will cost in FA. if it's a deal or "aceptable" i will do it. i never paint myself into a corner with contract length or money. when i don't get my way, i take my lumps and better off in long-run by avoiding it. of course, that's assuming they fit my future plans and such. to make a good financial decision, you just have to have a good perception of what things cost as well as how that term fits into the greater puzzle that is your team (payroll for any year during contract). while it occurs less often, i've gotten better deals from smartly allowing a player to hit free agency, instead of extending. it's also a bit of a risk. if too many teams with money target him, it can get more expensive. 1 year deals to arb-eligible players i never take. i just take the arbitration contract, which is typically cheaper. it may or may not upset them, but i don't see any repercussions. Last edited by NoOne; 08-25-2017 at 11:47 PM.

08-25-2017, 05:16 PM	#2
drhay53 Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 355	I don't have a projection system, but I do have a custom rating system. I dump lots of league data to html files which I parse with python. Players are rated by the number of sigma they are away from the true league average at their position; then I simply look at the contracts of similarly rated players. You could mimic this with filters and a custom view that shows contract information. I play with realistic injuries, so their injury history somewhat controls the number of years I'm willing to go, as well as money. For 'normal' players it's something like 3+1 (option), for fragile it's 2 at most, preferably 1+1 (opt). For Iron Man it depends on age but an iron man at 27 I'll give 7 years if he's a cornerstone of the team. Durable is generally 4+1 or 5+1 if I'm somewhat desperate. I'll overpay for durable+ and lowball for fragile.

08-25-2017, 08:15 PM	#3
Dyzalot All Star Starter Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,740	Well for arbitration guys, I usually offer slightly less than their projected arbitration value. For someone projected to get 1M I'll offer like 950K and they will usually sign. For a star player that might be projected to make like 8M, I'd offer something like 7.5M. I can almost always sign them for at least a little less than the projections.

08-30-2017, 08:36 PM	#6
Lamorak Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Posts: 195	When I've got nothing to go on, I either use the 'Compare player' function (The chart at the bottom lists -somewhat- comparable players.) I find guys who are are similar in profile (particularly age and relative experience). It will give me a ballpark market value. A little longer version of the same method- I use the "Find a Player" function for a similar effect. I plug in the profile of the player I'm considering extending and scope what other similar players are worth. One thing to note for impact is huge early arbitration seasons. I had a pretty good third year player who had a monster season. He asked for (and received) a big time arbitration salary. Next year, he regressed. Significantly. But the baseline salary had been set and arbitration pretty much escalated to the point of his quickly being unreasonable for the quality he was providing. I released him and resigned him for significantly less as a free agent.