Trade proposal

[Orcin]

You are the Marlins in an online league. The game date is July 21, 2017 and you are in first place with a 60-34 record. You are proposed this trade by the Cardinals with the Marlins retaining 30% of Stanton's contract. You have to take it or leave it - no substitutions. Would you make this trade?



P.S. The trade settings are hard/neutral. The evaluation settings are default (65/20/10/5). Diaz (.306/.359/.444) and Oh (1.59 ERA, 26 SV) are having good years. Wacha and Piscotty are decent, about like real life. Yelich (.264/.342/.401) and Stanton (.216/.300/.420) are barely above replacement level so far this year.

[PSUColonel]

If I were the Reds I'd take it

[Orcin]

Same game date... this time you are the Orioles with a 58-37 record and leading the AL East by 5 games. Would you make this trade?




P.S. Machado has already signed an extension for 5 years, $104 million.

[NoOne]

response to post #1

wouldn't make any decision based on small sample stats. if stanton has actually fallen off... really depends on teh rest of the organization.

if you have 2 capable replacement outfielders, that will make it easier.

if stanton is still rated well and will hit ~500+ hr in his career with health, you better have a plan b for a power hitter of similar quality in the next couple years.

wacha is good, the old reliever will be gone quickly so i wouldn't even consider that as any value. a decent short stop is always good to have and young... even if not an offensive power-house. flip him or your current for something else etc..

yelich is a lead-off hitter? gotta have a replacement.

it's probably better for the long-term health of hte organization, but may hurt your current year. again i don't know enough about florida's depth and the ratings invovled on the players. i'v always avoided stanton due to his contract.

[Orcin]

In case you haven't figured it out yet, the AI is obviously in love with Wacha, Diaz, and Oh. The AI also likes Carlos Martinez but that is understandable.

Still, this are serious questions. In an online league, would you trade Yelich to get rid of 70% of Stanton's contract? Would you trade Machado for anything... especially considering that you had signed him for the next five years?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by NoOne

response to post #1

wouldn't make any decision based on small sample stats. if stanton has actually fallen off... really depends on teh rest of the organization.

if you have 2 capable replacement outfielders, that will make it easier.

if stanton is still rated well and will hit ~500+ hr in his career with health, you better have a plan b for a power hitter of similar quality in the next couple years.

wacha is good, the old reliever will be gone quickly so i wouldn't even consider that as any value. a decent short stop is always good to have and young... even if not an offensive power-house. flip him or your current for something else etc..

yelich is a lead-off hitter? gotta have a replacement.

it's probably better for the long-term health of hte organization, but may hurt your current year. again i don't know enough about florida's depth and the ratings invovled on the players. i'v always avoided stanton due to his contract.

Piscotty is one of the replacement outfielders. I think the decision would be more about the money than the players. The Marlins are $4 million over their budget in my sim for what it's worth.

I think my reading between your lines says that you wouldn't make the deal based on what you know.

[NoOne]

i think that second proposal is better, lol.

those are young assets being moved for 1 player... SP and middle of the infield with i assume decent defensive qualities? lots to like about those trades.

if i saw stuff like that in my email, i'd actually turn those notification back on.

[NoOne]

not enough info... the pieces are okay, though. in the right situations, sure.

<not lookng for more, just answering>

those may be the only pieces that stl can move, too. i play with one team too much, clearly.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by NoOne

i think that second proposal is better, lol.

those are young assets being moved for 1 player... SP and middle of the infield with i assume decent defensive qualities? lots to like about those trades.

if i saw stuff like that in my email, i'd actually turn those notification back on.

So you would take that deal if you were Baltimore? Diaz is actually about league average fielding in this sim..

[Orcin]

Last one, I promise... Arizona is 52-43 and in a tight race with L.A. and Colorado for the N.L. West.

[NoOne]

i'd more likely be the guy getting multiple players for 1 in similar situations from above. i'm sure i spoke fromteh wrong perspective on at least one of those.. think the second.

if i do a multi for one deal, it's going to be someone good... really really good. like trout, harper if they don't decrapify by the time i can go after them. or some hot-shot and young pitchers (22-25ish, ... heh, in the next couple years i won't go after a 29-30 year old trout, lol, except in right situation at that point)

i do that quite often actually... i shortlist drafted players that are high-pot and regularly scan MiL for rising player potentials. usually have a few options and i develop at a much higher %-success than the AI. do get stung on occasion.

if i am paying very high price, i want 7-10 years out of them. 1-2 isn't going to cut it. i am a long-term planner. pieces must fit at the right time around a core of players.

is goldscmidt's power still high? if it's ~60/100, no way. from that point of view.

but, still need a bit more familiarty to be certain. heck, if wacha is your 4/5th pitcher then .. ? not jsut the value of the player, but also relative to the team.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by NoOne

i'd more likely be the guy getting multiple players for 1.

if i do a multi for one deal, it's going to be someone good... really really good. like trout, harper if they don't decrapify by the time i can go after them. or some hot-shot and young pitchers (22-25ish, ... heh, in the next couple years i won't go after a 29-30 year old trout, lol, except in right situation at that point)

if i am paying very high price, i want 7-10 years out of them. 1-2 isn't going to cut it. i am a long-term planner. pieces must fit at the right time around a core of players.

is goldscmidt's power still high? if it's ~60/100, no way. from that point of view.

but, still need a bit more familiarty to be certain. heck, if wacha is your 4/5th pitcher then .. ? not jsut the value of the player, but also relative to the team.

Goldschmidt is rated 60/60/70 at age 29 and signed through 2019. Machado is rated 60/65/55 at age 25 with 5 more pot in con and eye. He is signed through 2022 at $22 million.

I tried both Trout and Harper but the AI won't budge on them for my pile of mediocre talent, even with Martinez thrown in.

In my hypothetical, you are the guy giving up the one player. In example one, it is still really one player (Yelich) because Stanton's contract makes him worth little in a trade.

From the Cardinals point of view, all of these guys are replaceable from within the system. (Wacha-Weaver, Diaz-DeJong, Oh is gone anyway, Gyorko is a journeyman before this year, Piscotty can be replaced by any one of several young outfielders)

[The Yurpman]

Personally, I would do any of those three trades, I think. The Machado trade is my favorite, followed by the Goldschmidt trade, and finally the Yelich/Stanton trade. Stanton's contract (even with 30% covered) is a huge contract. It's still worth doing the trade, though IMO.

[Winnipeg59]

Yours sounds like a decent online league, with level-headed GM's carefully orchestrating win-win trades that make both pause and think!

You're sure this is an online league?

Which one??

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Winnipeg59

Yours sounds like a decent online league, with level-headed GM's carefully orchestrating win-win trades that make both pause and think!

You're sure this is an online league?

Which one??

No, it's not an online league. I am the Cardinals in a solo league. I am concerned that I am taking advantage of the AI, so I was trying to get a human perspective from the other side of the trade. Thanks for answering.

I would probably make the first trade if I were the Marlins to get rid of the Stanton contract. From the Cardinals side, I need a star player like Yelich badly and the money really doesn't kill me because they have a big budget.

If I were the Orioles or Diamondbacks, I would not do the deal because I believe that top-20 players are harder to find than 3-war players like the ones I would be receiving. This is the reason for my concern. I would be really surprised to see one of these players moved without getting a real star or package of top prospects in return.

Again, thanks to all for your answers.

[Orcin]

Oops, double post. But if anyone else wants to weigh in, please do. I am still considering whether to do any of them.

[MizzouRah]

I would take that first trade as a Cardinals fan in a heartbeat.

But.. I would make sure we could sign Lynn right afterwards.

[MizzouRah]

2nd trade for Machado.. I take that too. Again, I would need to sign Lance Lynn to a multi year deal.

[MizzouRah]

I take the 3rd one as well.. but we must sign Lynn!

Diaz is horrible, I think I got some backup for him in my game. Wacha hates Matheny in my game so he's on his way out after the 2019 season.

[Orcin]

Thanks for making me feel better about the deals. But the real question is would you do them from the other side?