An article with some interesting data about what wins the WS, with OOTP team-building implications

The Wolf · 05-13-2016, 12:52 PM

How Often Should Your Team Win The World Series? ? The Hardball Times

The Wolf · 05-13-2016, 02:45 PM

More interesting data about pitchers:

The Best Pitchers Of All Time | FiveThirtyEight

Bluenoser · 05-13-2016, 02:46 PM

A good read, thanks for sharing.

Quote:

A few other figures jump out at you from that chart. The Yankees, unsurprisingly, had far more World Series wins than an average team could expect. With 27 championships, the only way the Yankees would fall below their expected number of World Series wins is if they don’t win their 28th until the year 2656. Their legacy is secure, for our lifetimes at least.

Not that any of us will ever know, but can you imagine the Yankees going 640 yrs without a Championship?

TribeFanInNC · 05-13-2016, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

More interesting data about pitchers:

The Best Pitchers Of All Time | FiveThirtyEight

Hmmm...I'm not sure I even understood that. Except that I already knew that peak Pedro was about as good as pitching got.

I assume the 90s pitchers (and Dazzy Vance for that matter) get some sort of credit for era. And likewise, the 60s pitchers get penalized for era. I'm not sure I'm completely on board with any list that has Jake Arrieta and Frank Tanana co-mingling with Sandy Koufax and Bob Feller.

(P.S. I would very much like to imagine a world where the Yankees don't win for 640 years.)

Bub13 · 05-13-2016, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

A good read, thanks for sharing.

Not that any of us will ever know, but can you imagine the Yankees going 640 yrs without a Championship?

I'd like to.

Le Grande Orange · 05-13-2016, 04:14 PM

There's one aspect the article doesn't take into account, and it seems to me a rather important one: free agency.

If we divide baseball history into two eras, pre-free agency and post-free agency (with the last year of the former being 1976 and the first year of the latter being 1977), and then look at the Yankees, one finds the following.

During the reserve clause era, of the 73 World Series played between 1903-1976, the Yankees appeared in 30 of them, winning 20. Simple division tells us that the Yankees appeared in 41% of the World Series played in that time period. During the free agency period, of the 38 World Series played, the Yankees appeared in 10 of them, winning 7. The Yankees thus appeared in only 26% of the World Series in the latter time period.

It would seem the Yankees benefited greatly from the reserve clause era.

DocHalladay · 05-13-2016, 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Le Grande Orange

There's one aspect the article doesn't take into account, and it seems to me a rather important one: free agency.

If we divide baseball history into two eras, pre-free agency and post-free agency (with the last year of the former being 1976 and the first year of the latter being 1977), and then look at the Yankees, one finds the following.

During the reserve clause era, of the 73 World Series played between 1903-1976, the Yankees appeared in 30 of them, winning 20. Simple division tells us that the Yankees appeared in 41% of the World Series played in that time period. During the free agency period, of the 38 World Series played, the Yankees appeared in 10 of them, winning 7. The Yankees thus appeared in only 26% of the World Series in the latter time period.

It would seem the Yankees benefited greatly from the reserve clause era.

I will ask: Is it too early to compare the current era since 35 years still must be played to consider all of the chances the Yankees had in the first 73 year sample?

It would be interesting (if your data covers it) to see how the Yankees fared in the first 38 years of the reserve clause era, and compare that to the last 38 years result.

Thanks for sharing that data though. Interesting stuff.

The Wolf · 05-13-2016, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bub13

I'd like to.

Me too!

Hammercraft · 05-13-2016, 11:02 PM

The data is a little skewed. Back when the Yankees won their first title there were only 16 teams.

- ok, it looks like they tried to adjust for that. results unclear

The Wolf · 05-14-2016, 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammercraft

The data is a little skewed. Back when the Yankees won their first title there were only 16 teams.

- ok, it looks like they tried to adjust for that. results unclear

They adjusted for that. Results very clear.

Le Grande Orange · 05-14-2016, 01:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DocHalladay

I will ask: Is it too early to compare the current era since 35 years still must be played to consider all of the chances the Yankees had in the first 73 year sample?

Well, it's all we got. So we have to make the best of it.

I only mention it because it seems to me free agency was a pretty significant development in baseball history, and as such it surely must have had an effect. I, for one, would be interested in seeing the authors of the article in the OP do an updated study, only this time comparing teams pre- and post-free agency, and see how much the numbers change.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DocHalladay

It would be interesting (if your data covers it) to see how the Yankees fared in the first 38 years of the reserve clause era, and compare that to the last 38 years result.

I would change that around to ask how well the Yankees did in the 38 years immediately prior to free agency, which would cover 1939-76. In that period, the Yankees appeared in 20 World Series, winning 13. That works out to the club appearing in 53% of World Series, or twice as often as in the post-free agency era.

james17 · 05-14-2016, 02:42 AM

Interesting article, Wolf. Thanks for posting.

So it would seem winning a WS is almost a crap shoot nowadays.

Hammercraft · 05-14-2016, 02:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

They adjusted for that. Results very clear.

The totals in the first table don't add up, it was confusing what they were trying to get at

aquapong · 05-15-2016, 04:58 PM

So compile a team with a bunch of war and you're bound to win the WS enough times?

The Wolf · 05-15-2016, 05:14 PM

"Given the premium paid to pitchers lately, one might be forgiven for thinking that the team with the best pitching staffs over the years would have the most world championships. You would be wrong."

RchW · 05-15-2016, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aquapong

So compile a team with a bunch of war and you're bound to win the WS enough times?

WAR only expresses what we see in-game and over a season. It's not mysterious or alchemy when we see Mike Trout at 40 WAR in his age 24 season.

MrBojangles · 05-15-2016, 09:07 PM

Good pitching will always beat good hitting... and vice versa.

The Wolf · 05-15-2016, 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBojangles

Good pitching will always beat good hitting... and vice versa.

Except that it didn't, when it counted. Consistently.

MrBojangles · 05-15-2016, 09:15 PM

That's why the "vice versa" at the end of the saying. I wish I knew who originally came up with this clever quote. Twas not I.

Eric · 05-15-2016, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBojangles

Good pitching will always beat good hitting... and vice versa.

Case y Stengel, according to the Internet
Casey Stengel Quotes

but then again another website attributed it to Abraham Lincoln.

05-13-2016, 11:02 PM	#9
Hammercraft All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Wisconsin Posts: 728	The data is a little skewed. Back when the Yankees won their first title there were only 16 teams. - ok, it looks like they tried to adjust for that. results unclear Last edited by Hammercraft; 05-13-2016 at 11:04 PM.

05-13-2016, 04:14 PM	#6
Le Grande Orange Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Up There Posts: 15,642	There's one aspect the article doesn't take into account, and it seems to me a rather important one: free agency. If we divide baseball history into two eras, pre-free agency and post-free agency (with the last year of the former being 1976 and the first year of the latter being 1977), and then look at the Yankees, one finds the following. During the reserve clause era, of the 73 World Series played between 1903-1976, the Yankees appeared in 30 of them, winning 20. Simple division tells us that the Yankees appeared in 41% of the World Series played in that time period. During the free agency period, of the 38 World Series played, the Yankees appeared in 10 of them, winning 7. The Yankees thus appeared in only 26% of the World Series in the latter time period. It would seem the Yankees benefited greatly from the reserve clause era.

05-14-2016, 02:42 AM	#12
james17 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,305	Interesting article, Wolf. Thanks for posting. So it would seem winning a WS is almost a crap shoot nowadays.

05-15-2016, 04:58 PM	#14
aquapong Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 378	So compile a team with a bunch of war and you're bound to win the WS enough times?

05-15-2016, 09:07 PM	#17
MrBojangles All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2016 Location: low and inside Posts: 568	Good pitching will always beat good hitting... and vice versa.

05-15-2016, 09:15 PM	#19
MrBojangles All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2016 Location: low and inside Posts: 568	That's why the "vice versa" at the end of the saying. I wish I knew who originally came up with this clever quote. Twas not I.