Rebuilding the 2016 Milwaukee Brewers

[vigilante225]

Introduction: My initial goal was to use a team that's trying to compete in 2016 but probably shouldn't, then shift gears and fully rebuild them. However, the best targets - Tigers, D-backs, White Sox, Orioles - made win-now moves just weeks ago, so it would be unrealistic for them to do a complete 180 so soon. Therefore, I have instead decided to take the reins of the Brewers, a rebuilding team in a brutal division that has no chance of competing for the foreseeable future, yet still has several high-paid veterans on its roster. My plan is to do a complete rebuild, wait out the championship windows of the 3 division rivals, and eventually bring a sustainable winning franchise to the city of Milwaukee! I'll be taking on the role of David Stearns, the youngest GM in the league, as he begins writing a blog while entering his first full season with the Brewers.

I'm playing OOTP 17, with ratings based on AI evaluation of 55/25/15/5. Trading difficulty is Average (I may increase it to Hard if it's too easy) with Neutral preference. Scouting accuracy is average, and GM firing is on. Please feel free to post any suggestions/questions/general comments you may have. You can find my OOTP 15 Padres rebuild dynasty here Thanks for reading, and enjoy!

David's Diary - Post #1
April 1, 2016

Hi everybody,

My name is David Stearns, and I'm the current General Manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. I just began working for the Brewers this past offseason, so I forgive you if you didn't know who I was. Before this I was an assistant GM with the Astros, so hopefully I'll be able to emulate the success of my former boss Jeff Luhnow (although preferably with less MLBPA grievances filed against me ).

As Brewers fans, I know you've had a rough time these past couple years, and I'm not going to lie to you - it's not going to get better right away. But if you give me a bit of trust, patience, and time, I believe that before long things will turn around. I know that you're probably not too happy about some of the veterans that have departed this past offseason (Khris Davis, Gerardo Parra, Adam Lind, Mike Fiers, Jean Segura, etc.), but believe me....you ain't seen nothing yet! I know players don't typically get traded in April, but don't be surprised if some of your favorite Brewers are wearing different uniforms by the time May hits. It's all part of "the process."

Speaking of "the process," I need you as fans to be realistic about our timelines here. Our division is historically good at the moment, and figures to stay that way for at least the next few years. At the same time, most of our top prospects are at least a few years away from being stars. Logically, the conclusion here is that we're probably not going to be competitive for the next little while. However, we're still going to be investing money into the franchise through scouting, drafting, player development, international amateur FAs, and - my favorite - taking on bad contracts in salary dumps in exchange for prospects. We are very fortunate to have an owner who is willing to spend money, and I plan on fully taking advantage of this to acquire as many top prospects as possible. The effects may not be noticeable right away, but if things go as planned, we should be a playoff team by 2018!

I plan to be posting on this blog monthly, with mini in-month updates for significant news. Look for a season preview in the coming days, along with an overview of our top prospects.

Thanks for reading, and go Brewers!!

P.S. Just in case you missed it, I should probably mention that the NL owners decided last week, right before the beginning of the season, that they would be implementing the DH effective immediately! This is huge for us, and I wish it had happened sooner, but better late than never!

[vigilante225]

David's Diary - Post #2
April 3, 2016

Today is Opening Day, so before the season starts let's quickly run through our lineup and rotation. Keep in mind that, due to our rebuilding status, the lineup and rotation may be looking quite different by the end of the month, and will almost certainly be very different by the end of the season. With that in mind, here's an overview of the lineup, rotation, and key relievers:

Lineup

1. Jonathan Villar (SS, 24)
2015 stats: .284/.339/.414, 0.7 WAR in 53 games with HOU

One of our key acquisitions from this past offseason, we're hoping Villar can build upon his strong play last season and become a key member of our next winning team. He's not an amazing hitter, but he's a competent middle infielder with blazing speed, so he definitely has the potential to become a solid contributor to the team. He'll be leading off for us this year.

2. Jonathan Lucroy (C, 29)
2015 stats: .264/.326/.391, 2.2 WAR in 103 games

Lucroy has been a top-5 catcher in the MLB for the past several years, and he's still got several good years left in him. When you add the fact that he's got an incredibly team-friendly contract, it's clear to see that he is a very valuable player, and is a very attractive trade chip. He himself has expressed surprise that he hasn't been traded yet, and at this point it's only a matter of time before we find the right deal to ship him out. He's been a great contributor to this team, but he deserves to go somewhere else and chase a pennant.

3. Ryan Braun (LF, 32)
2015 stats: .285/.356/.498, 25 HR, 24 SB, 4.3 WAR

The former NL MVP has experienced a fall from grace over the past little while, but he's bounced back and is still an incredibly good player. His age and massive contract detract from his value, but I still believe that there are big market teams out there who would be willing to foot the bill in order to acquire a player with Braun's skills, so we'll try to make a trade but we'll only go through with it if we can receive fair value for him.

4. Chris Carter (1B, 29)
2015 stats: .199/.307/.427, 24 HR, 0.6 WAR with HOU

After two successful seasons with the Astros, Carter had a pretty rough 2015 and was non-tendered as a result. We still believe in him though, so we signed him to a very affordable 1 year contract this past offseason. He's never going to hit for average, but he still manages to get on base a decent amount, and his home run power is incredible. At 29, he's probably not going to get any better than this, and he probably won't be on the next winning iteration of the Brewers, so the hope here is that he bounces back this season and then we can flip him to a contender for prospects.

5. Domingo Santana (CF, 23)
2015 stats: .237/.337/.431, 8 HR, 1.0 WAR in 52 games

Yet another former Astro, Santana is an exciting prospect with a very rare and valuable combination of skills who could one day bat cleanup while also playing center field! He'll probably never hit for a very high average, but he draws walks and has impressive power potential. That alone would make him an intriguing prospect, but on top of that he's also quite athletic and capable in the outfield, despite his gigantic 6'5 frame. We're hoping he develops into a star, but even if it turns out that his ceiling is just an above-average power hitting corner outfielder, we'll be happy. He's almost sure to become a valuable MLB in the very near future.

6. Scooter Gennett (2B, 25)
2015 stats: .264/.294/.381, 6 HR, 0.5 WAR in 114 games

After two surprisingly effective seasons in 2013 and 2014, Scooter came back down to earth in 2015 with a mediocre showing. He's never showed much power potential, and none of his tools really stand out, so he's probably not our long-term starter at 2B, especially because we have some very intriguing middle infield prospects coming up through our system. As a young, league-average, cost-controlled player at a premium position, Gennett is still pretty valuable, either as a player or as a trade chip.

7. Ramon Flores (RF, 24)
2015 AAA stats: .308/.401/.454, 9 HR, 2.8 WAR in 87 games

Flores, acquired in the offseason from Seattle, has the potential to become a solid outfielder, and if his AAA performance last year is any indication, he's just about ready to be a major league regular. No tool in particular really stands out, but he doesn't have any major holes in his game, leading to what will hopefully soon be a well-rounded solid MLB player.

8. Aaron Hill (3B, 34)
2015 stats: .230/.295/.345, 0.4 WAR in 114 games with ARI

Hill was acquired in the Jean Segura trade with the Diamondbacks this past offseason, and at this point in his career he's little more than a salary dump. It's unlikely that any team will be willing to give up prospects for him in a trade, so we'll probably just hold onto him for this final year of his contract. He's unlikely to produce more than 1 WAR this year, but he won't completely suck, and that's all we can really ask for.

9. Kirk Niewenhuis (DH, 28)
2015 stats: .195/.270/.375, 0 WAR in 74 games with LAA/NYM

There's not too much to say about Kirk, who we claimed off waivers from the Mets this winter. Hopefully he does better than his replacement-level performance last year, but either way he's clearly just a stop-gap, and he'll likely be replaced in the lineup once 25 year old Rymer Liriano recovers from the facial fractures he suffered during spring training.

Rotation

1. Jimmy Nelson (SP, 26)
2015 stats: 4.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 1.9 WAR

Nelson had an impressive 2015 season for us, solidifying his reputation as a mid-rotation starter. Unfortunately, none of our starters are better than mid-rotation, so Nelson is our Opening Day starter. He's pretty young, so there is arguably some room for improvement, but he's probably not going to get much better than he already is. Does he have a long-term future here in Milwaukee? Only time will tell.

2. Taylor Jungmann (SP, 26)
2015 stats: 3.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 1.5 WAR in 21 starts

Jungmann is a very rare bird - he's a starter on the Brewers with some upside! In all seriousness, though, Jungmann has the potential to become the best starter on our team. He's definitely got the nastiest stuff, with a great changeup and a solid slider to go along with an above-average fastball - he just needs to work on his control a bit more. I could definitely see him being near the top of the rotation on the next Brewers playoff team.

3. Chase Anderson (SP, 28)
2015 stats: 4.30 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.7 WAR with ARI

Anderson was the key piece we received in the Jean Segura trade, and we're hoping that he can build on the success he had last year. He's a late bloomer, with just one full MLB season under his belt at the age of 28, but we think he has the tools required to sustain his success. Like Nelson, he's probably never getting any better than what he is right now, but that's OK, since he's already pretty good. I know we acquired him just a few months ago, but I'm already not so sure how much longer he'll be with the team.

4. Wily Peralta (SP, 26)
2015 stats: 4.72 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 5.0 K/9, 0.2 WAR in 20 starts

Another 26 year old mid-rotation starter, Peralta has shown some promise in the past, but it's looking less and less likely that he'll ever become a star. Just a month away from his 27th birthday, he actually regressed in 2015 (partially due to injury). We're hoping he can bounce back and make an impact this year, but at this point it's probably unreasonable to expect him to ever turn into a 4 WAR pitcher. Still, he has the ability to be a solid mid-rotation arm (as long as he can stay healthy), and there's certainly value in that - perhaps more so to a contender than to us.

5. Matt Garza (SP, 32)
2015 stats: 5.63 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 0.1 WAR

Garza has had a long, bumpy MLB career, playing a total of 10 seasons for 5 different teams, peaking in 2011 with a 5 WAR season for the Cubs and bottoming out last season with a 0.1 WAR season for the Brewers. It looks like the sun is just about ready to set on his career, which wouldn't be such a big problem if it weren't for the fact that he still has 2 years and $25M left on his contract! We expect him to bounce back at least a little bit this year - which would make his contract a bit easier to swallow and could even potentially make him a viable trade chip next year - but I'm not holding my breath on that.

Bullpen

CL Jeremy Jeffress (RP, 28)
2015 Stats: 1.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 in 41.2 IP

Jeffress is likely to be our closer this year, after doing a fantastic job setting up last year's closer Francisco Rodriguez. Now that K-Rod is gone, Jeffress looks like the natural heir to the throne. His problem historically has been a lack of control, but last year he appeared to clean that up and now just blows hitters away with his incredible stuff. Of course, a dominant closer is a luxury good that is usually not valued as highly by rebuilding teams, so it's a distinct possibility that Jeffress is closing for a different team by the trade deadline.

SU Will Smith (RP, 26)
2015 Stats: 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 in 63.1 IP

Speaking of great stuff, Will Smith has one of the best changeup-curveball combos the league has ever seen! While that might be a slight exaggeration, the point still remains that Smith is a very talented pitcher, and could easily make a case for the closer role. However, as a lefty it would be more beneficial to keep him as our set-up man, especially with a walk rate as high as his has been recently. Just 26, he could potentially be with the team for many years to come.

SU. Corey Knebel (RP, 24)
2015 Stats: 3.22 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 in 50.1 IP

Our third and final young dominant reliever, Knebel has a mid-90s fastball and a nasty curveball that both induce a ton of strikeouts, and we look forward to having him around both in the present and in the future. He's definitely got the potential to one day be our closer.


Look for a rundown of our top prospects next!

[vigilante225]

I was struck by the idea to do a Tigers rebuild (with a new owner, of course) instead of this Brewers rebuild, and I will therefore be postponing this dynasty indefinitely. You can check out my Tigers dynasty here!